Saturday 12/25

Smitty

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Merry Christmas!!!

Camellia Bowl Sponsored by Joe Camel

time for that annual christmas tradition... opening presents... getting drunk (and full) on egg nog.... and telling the kids we're all watching the camellia bowl BECAUSE DADDY WORKS HARD SO HE CAN AFFORD A 65" TV AND YOU DAMN BETTER BELIEVE HE'S GOING TO ENJOY IT.

ga st (-6) 3 units
under (51) 2 units. i really like the panthers to control this game on the ground. they are 8th in the country, averaging 224 yards/game. ball state's run defense is 90th, giving up 170/game. and when georgia st needs to throw, grainger has been very solid, throwing 16 TDs and only 4 INTs. hell, away from home he's been even better, with 9 TDs and only one INT.

plitt, the ball st qb, appears to have had a solid season at first glance. but there's a big drop off in one key stat. here's his average yards/att the last 3 seasons:

2019 - 7.9
2020 - 8.6
2021 - 6.2

that's pretty significant. they just don't have a big-play receiver. of the 6 guys with at least 10 catches, not one averages more than 12 yards/reception.

one other note... sure, it's 4 days away, but they are expecting some wind on saturday. could be one more advantage to the team that moves the ball on the ground.
 

ejthree

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I'm on this one with you and i really like this game ... One of the analytic guys my brother is involved with has Ga ST winning by 14+ 84% of the time...I hope he is correct for a couple ole timers lol...Happy Bowling and Holidays to us...:0074
 

Dizzayton

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Appreciate both you guys sharing your thoughts and info. Good stuff. Thanks.
 

Smitty

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I'm on this one with you and i really like this game ... One of the analytic guys my brother is involved with has Ga ST winning by 14+ 84% of the time...I hope he is correct for a couple ole timers lol...Happy Bowling and Holidays to us...:0074

nice! i've been playing some alternative lines lately. maybe i'll throw a little on the panthers -14.
 

ejthree

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Nice fork you stuck in Ball St ,sure hope you got the alt line also...Nice call Smitty...:toast:
 

Smitty

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Nice fork you stuck in Ball St ,sure hope you got the alt line also...Nice call Smitty...:toast:

eh, i basically pussied out. only threw half a unit at -14. still, better than a sharp stick in the eye. :)

i hope everyone had a great christmas. i'll get back to work on more bowl games tomorrow.
 
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