Saturday 12/7 Bowl Games

[Smitty]

Whoops, that's supposed to be 12/17, of course.

Fenway Bowl aka the Scott Satterfield Bowl

I love that some people in Boston saw the Pinstripe Bowl and said "You know what? College football needs TWO bowl games in cold climates in stadiums that have no business hosting football games!" *sigh*

After much inner turmoil, I cannot pick a side in this one. Both teams are bet-againsts for me.

But, hey, i said i was betting every game i could. So....

Under (40, -105) 2 units
1H under (21, -125) 2 units. i see now the total opened around 45. Awesome. Anyway, no elaborate write-up for this one. Can't bring myself to spend much time on this game. 2 decent defenses and two meh offenses. Weather will be a high of 40? with some snow or maybe rain, which is SO much fun in 40?. Son of a bitch, just saw they are calling for wind gusts up to 27 mph. I may end up increasing my Under bets.

I will say after looking at some of the numbers, Louisville's defense isn't quite as good as a top-level glance would lead you to believe. So maybe the slightest lean to Cincinnati. But no idea where their motivation is after playing in the playoff last year.

 

[Smitty]

Las Vegas Bowl

Overall, I feel less enthused about the entire slate of bowl games this year than I ever have. Just wanted to throw that out there.

This is an interesting match-up. Not "interesting" in a good way, necessarily. But a LOT of variables to consider.

First, some general thoughts...

Florida was a real Jekyll & Hyde team this year. Some impressive efforts. And a 3-pt win over USF and a loss to Vanderbilt. So who the hell knows what kind of effort we'll see Saturday.

Losing Anthony Richardson as your qb is just like losing Lamar Jackson... it's not a bad thing.

Oregon St cared a hell of a lot more about winning the Civil War (sorry, the Oregon Classic) than they do about winning the Las Vegas Bowl. I'm going out on a limb with that one.

I miss the days when it seemed like BYU was in the Las Vegas Bowl every year, and I was always amused by the thought of a bunch of Mormons in Vegas. Yes, I say that every year now.

In addition to Richardson, Florida is missing an offensive lineman and a defensive lineman who are preparing for the NFL draft. Less than ideal.

Ok, some x's and o's.....


Both teams have a good ground game. Oregon St gains 4.93 yds/carry. Pretty good. But nowhere near as good as Florida, which averages 5.84 yds/carry. That's 3rd in the country. And while Richardson was certainly part of that, their top 2 RBs averaged 5.7 and 6.4 yds/carry. Defensively, Oregon St appears to have a big advantage. They only give up 114 yds/game, 20th in the country. However, they allow 4.0 yds/carry, which is 60th. Not quite as impressive. Still quite a bit better than Florida, which allows 4.52 yds/carry.

Ok, so both teams could have success running the ball. But does either team have enough of a passing game to take the pressure off the run game? Here we have one clear answer and one giant question mark. OSU... really no threat of the pass. Even in their huge win over Oregon, Gulbranson was 6 of 13 for 60 yards and 2 INTs. Re-read that and let it sink in. The Gators can safely put 11 guys in the box. Florida... last I saw, the plan is for Miller to start. Other than some mop-up duty at Ohio State, he hasn't seen the field. So we don't really know what we're going to get from him. Obviously he's a talented kid, and he'll certainly benefit from a few weeks taking 1st team reps. This is where I'm taking a bit of a leap of faith... I'm betting (literally) that he's going to give them a semblance of a threat of a passing game. OSU pretty much has to stack the box and I think Miller is going to have some opportunities early. If he falls flat on his face, I'm going to be in trouble.

A closer look at Oregon State's schedule... man, i was seriously underwhelmed. Here's their wins:

Boise St (first game of the season, when Boise sucked)
Fresno St (OSU literally scored a TD the last play of the game to win this one)
Montana St
Stanford
Washington St (not a bad win, but Oregon St. was actually outgained in this game)
Colorado
California
Arizona St
Oregon (which they won because Dan Lanning seemingly forgot he's allowed to punt the ball. Especially against a weak offensive team.)

While Florida's best win was the first game of the season against Utah, at least they beat the Utes. Oregon St lost to Utah.

My lord, I did not expect to write a novel on this game. But the more I looked at it, the more I liked, *gulp*, the Gators.

I believe this is the 3rd time in the first 4 games that I'm betting on a Head Coach in his first year with the team. I feel like i'm setting myself up for a rough start to bowl season.

Florida (+10.5) 4 units
Florida (ML) 2 units to win 6
Over (52.5) 4 units (this is more of a hunch than anything)

 

[Smitty]

Jimmy Kimmel Bowl

I will be very disappointed if they don't have the Matt Damon urinal cakes in the stadium restrooms this year.

I don't see a motivational edge for either team in this game.

Jeff Tedford is 7-3 in bowl games.

Washington St is heavily reliant on the passing game, led by Cam Ward, who transferred in from Incarnate Wood. Ward has been as good as they'd hoped, putting together a solid season. However, his numbers have steadily gotten worse through the season. These #s are completion % and yds/att.

September: 68.9% 7.3
October: 62.4% 6.9
November 61.1% 5.8

Those 4 November games were against Stanford, Az, Az St, and Washington, none of which were particularly good at stopping the pass this year.

Also, he was a lot better at home than away. At home, he completed 69.3%, 7.1 yds/att, 16 TDs and 5 INTs. Away, he completed 56%, 6.0 yds/att, 7 TDs and 3 INTs.

Ward will be without his leading receiver, as Stribling has entered the transfer portal. He had 51 receptions on the year, including 7 in the Apple Cup.

Wazzou's top 2 RBs are solid, averaging 5.7 and 5.9 yds/ carry. But combined, they only get 16 carries/game.

Fresno's weakness defensively is on the ground. They give up 4.44 yd/s carry, which is 94th in the country. Against the pass, they only allow 6.25 yards/att, which is 16th best.

On the other side of the ball, Fresno may be a little TOO balanced. They only threw the ball 3 more times than they ran it all season. Considering the fact that they only average 3.8 yds/carry (90th in the country), maybe they should throw a little more often. Jake Haener is one of the better qbs most people don't know about. Despite missing a few games due to injury, he completed 72.6% of his passes for 18 TDs and only 3 INTs, while averaging 8.3 yds/att. He hasn't thrown an INT since 10/29, which was his first game back from the injury. Biggest area of concern - he takes too many sacks. He's been sacked 3 times in each of his last 3 games, even though 2 of those games were against Nevada and Wyoming, games that Fresno won comfortably. Washington St does a decent job getting after the qb, averaging 2.4 sacks/game, which is 42nd in the country.

Washington gives up 7.55 yards/att, which is 93rd in the country. Haener should have a good game.

Definite edge in the kicking game to Wazzou. Dean Janikowski (I"m not even going to look it up - he's gotta be related) made 10 of 11 fgs under 50 yards. Fresno has switched to freshman Dylan Lynch, who is 6 of 7, but hasn't even attempted a fg over 43 yards.

OK, Washington State's strength on offense will go head-to-head with Fresno's strength defensively. But on the other side of the ball, Fresno's strength will match up with Wazzou's weakness. Fresno may feel they have a little unfinished business, as they are 0-2 against the PAC12 this year, including a last-play loss to Oregon St.

Another game that I wish I'd jumped on earlier, as Fresno has gone from -1 to -3.5. Also don't like all the chalk I'm eating so far. That's not a recipe for success early in the bowl season.

Fresno (-3.5) 4 units
Under (52.5) 6 units

 

[Smitty]

Lending Tree Bowl

*sigh* Do I have to?

One super interesting bit of trivia I just learned... Southern Miss is 0-3 in the Tangerine Bowl. You're welcome.

Ok, two teams that should be happy to be playing in a bowl game. Definitely a bigger deal for Rice though. Thanks to their graduation rates, they are here with a 5-7 record.

I don't see how either team is going to be able to run the ball. Rice's run defense is poor (5 yards/carry, 119th in the country), but Southern Miss averages 3.37 yards/carry. That is 116th in the country. What's that like... the very stoppable force against an easily moved object? Rice averages 4 yards/carry, but Southern Miss only allows 3.68.

I will say though, Rice has a decent 1-2 punch with Montgomery (5.8 yards/carry) and Otoviano (6.0). Their run game has certainly improved since they stopped giving carries to Broussard, who was averaging 2.8 yards/carry and still leads the team in carries. So maybe, just maybe, Rice will show a little life in the ground game.

Neither team has a dynamic passing offense, but both are so bad at defending the pass that we may see some surprising numbers from the qbs. I'm assuming Lowe is starting for USM, which has seen 3 starting qbs this season. Since Lowe became the starter, they've lost 1-score games to Coastal Carolina and USA, and beat UL Monroe.

Rice lost their last 3 games, but against UNT, UTSA, and WKU. The top 3 in the conference.

Big advantage in the kicking game to USM.

Oh, almost forgot.... Rice beat USM in each of the last 2 years. They OWN the Golden Eagles.

I think Rice is a live dog here, as bad as they are.

Rice (+6.5) 2 units
Rice (ML) 2 units to win 4.1
Over (45.5) 1 unit

 

[Smitty]

New Mexico Bowl

Gonna try to keep this one a little briefer. We'll see how that goes.

This game looks like it will be defined by who ISN'T playing. BYU's qb, Hall, is likely out (although he has played a few times with little to no practice, so that could still change). Their likely starter has... zero college snaps. Their top receiver, Nacua, is also questionable.

Speaking of top receivers, Rice is out for SMU. He only has 96 receptions this year. That is 31% of their completions. The next 4 guys COMBINED have 98. So, yeah, kinda a big deal.

As you would expect, the line has moved a few points in SMU's direction, and the total has dropped 7 points. I'm gonna take a shot with the dog and the over.

Both of these defenses are TERRIBLE. These teams are 94th and 96 in passing yards allowed per attempt. And that's the STRENGTH of both defenses. BYU gives up 4.68 yards/carry, which is 106th in the country. SMU gives up 4.95, which is 117th. Intramural teams from East Bumfuck U. (go Fightin' Dandelions!!) could move the ball on these defenses.

Even without Rice, SMU has to be able to move the ball on the Coogs. As for BYU, what do you need to give an inexperienced qb a chance? A run game. And Brooks has been a beast, averaging 6.6 yards/carry. SMU is going to throw 11 guys and half the band into the box, giving the BYU receivers one-on-zero coverage. Hopefully they can complete a few passes.

Man, I almost forgot to even check this, but... SMU's HC is in his first year there! Yay! I finally get to bet with that trend. Fun fact (that I just made up, but it's probably true)... no man named Rhett has ever led a team to a bowl win.

BYU (ML) 2 units to win 3.1
Over (64) 2 units

 

[OtroPex]

Thanks for the write ups & GL!! :0074

 

[Smitty]

Thanks for the write ups & GL!! :0074

thank you! GL to you as well.

 

[Smitty]

Frisco Bowl

Maybe there is more behind the scenes that we don't know, but on the surface, the firing of Seth Littrell is a perfect example of what's wrong with college football. He was 44-44, won 9 games in a season twice, and took them to a bowl game in 6 of 7 seasons. AT NORTH TEXAS. Not quite as disgusting as what happened at Navy, but pretty bad.

Now all that does is add yet another variable to handicapping this game. Did the players love him? And now don't give a fuck about this game? Certainly doesn't help that Frisco is only about 30 minutes from Denton, so they didn't even get to travel. Maybe they hated him, and will be excited for his departure.

After an early embarrassing lost to UTEP, Boise fired their OC and changed qbs. Dual-threat Taylen Green is now QB1. He was probably flattered by playing against a lot of bad defenses in the MWC, but he gets to see another bad defense tomorrow.

Ok, the basic stats, with national ranks in parentheses.

Boise offense: 4.85 yards/carry (35th), 6.97 yards/att (86th)
North Texas defense: 4.69 yards/carry (109th), 7.60 yards/att (93rd)

North Texas offense: 5.29 yards/carry (18th), 8.61 yards/att (18th)
Boise defense: 3.42 yards/carry (20th), 6.41 yards/att (25th)

To sum that up, no big surprise, UNT's good offense will be up against a good Boise defense, and a mediocre Boise offense will get to play against a porous UNT defense.

So.... hard to predict how motivated the Mean Green will be, and hard to predict how Boise will react to the sting of losing the MWC championship at home. Another game that smart gamblers would probably avoid.

Luckily for us, I do not fall into that category. When in doubt, my default is dog and under.

UNT (+11) 2 units
UNT (ML) 1 unit to win 3.4
under (59.5) 1 unit

 

[ET4646]

Great write ups I’m curious you mentioned Oregon States motivation, do you think FLA is motivated to play the Beavers in a bowl game in Vegas?

thx

 

[Smitty]

Great write ups I’m curious you mentioned Oregon States motivation, do you think FLA is motivated to play the Beavers in a bowl game in Vegas?

thx

Funny you should ask. I thought about elaborating on that a little but, as hard as this may be to believe, I try not to ramble on TOO much. :lol:

Ok, a couple thoughts on that. First of all, I tend to focus on the favorite's motivation. Especially a large favorite. Even an unmotivated dog can hang around if the fav isn't all that focused. The other factor for me in this game is that, with several important players missing for Florida, that opens up opportunities for the next man up. Some of these guys are playing for a spot next year. They're going to be eager to prove what they can do. Nobody more so than Miller. Now, that can be a positive or a negative, if they're trying to do too much. But with a 10-pt dog, i thought the value was there to take a shot.
Obviously Miller is a huge question mark. If he can throw accurately, he's actually going to be a big improvement over Richardson.
So it's not like I have a strong feeling Florida is going to show up and play their best tomorrow. I just think there's enough of a chance of that happening, and I'm getting paid enough to take that shot.
FWIW, the line is down to 8 in some places. I'd still bet the Gators, but maybe not for as much.

 

[Smitty]

Apparently Cunningham announced last week that he wasn't playing today and... I can find absolutely nothing to indicate that Bryant wasn't playing for Cincinnati. For fuck's sake. It's not already difficult enough to handicap these games. Now we have no idea who's even playing. Apparently even the Cincinnati kicker opted out. Not on the list.