Economy pack for now...it's June already...I need some sleep.
Yesterday posted: 6-2 +1.6
Year (last 3 days): 15-12 +4.7
Anybody seeing this mess probably can figure out, approximately, what I'm (at least) trying to do here...
P.OPS is just my own, over-complicated (probably) form of On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage. I weigh the teams a degree vs arm of opposing starter, while leaving the rest flat due to any bullpen maneuvers. I also make some adjustment based on offensive streaks and home/away discrepancies.
PITCH was just to designate the rating that I give to each team's expected pitching for that game; the starter weighs in heavily, but the bullpen also factors in to varrying degrees (less for, say, Jason Schmidt than Mike Maroth, as my current projected runner-up for this year's NL Cy (Schmidt) can consistently go deep, while Maroth is quite a longshot for a complete game)
Trying a new system out this year. One I use for the NFL gives me pretty solid percentages to work with any pointspread, so I've been desperate for some way produce reasonable #'s for MLB games. Using the Force only works for me for so long. Results have been decent, but the system is prone to X-factors like that clown, Gonzalez, pitching for the D'Backs last night (oops). Other posts I saw warned about this clown being pummelled early and often; my confidence in that one was gone by the 1st inning, if not after reading the posts. Game was a coin-toss, and laying juice on coin-tosses is something that I am trying to avoid.
----------------------------------------------------------------
These are just the #'s I have going in. Too grogged right now to fool around with umpires, and totals in general.
Team........P.OPS.......PITCH
Yanks........816...........80
Cubs.........719...........89
------
A's.............718...........73
Phillies.......743...........82
------
Indians......703...........67
D'Backs......703...........69
------
Tigers........609...........73
Giants........804...........91.......(note: Giants strength is vs lefties)
------
Orioles.......760...........73
Cardinals....822..........73
------
Angels........794...........72
Marlins........770...........73
------
Bosox.........838...........71
Brewers......730...........67
------
Rangers......800...........67
Expos.........705...........75
------
Mariners......814...........74
Mets............694...........77
------
Jays.............820...........68
Reds............736...........67
------
Royals..........718..........67....(this is for George/Chacon)
Rockies........878..........80....(Rocks OPS over 900 vs lefties)
------
Twins...........760..........81...(# may be low for nasty Santana)
Padres.........690..........66
------
Chisox..........698.........79
Dodgers.......650..........72
------------
Didn't bother with the other two (or more, if doubleheaders are).
My overnight (if I ever regain consciousness) picks:
Temptation RESISTED:
Cubs, with Wood to stop Clemens. Negligable value.
Marlins, with the better starter, I'd say, and unpredictable Angels offense (there was a coin toss with juice I DID pass on).
Bosox, where I get a PV of +4 at -138 (rated 62-38)
Chisox, PV +1 at -120 (rated 56-44 here)
Temptation NOT resisted:
Phillies(Wolf) over A's(Harang) -135
1.35/1
Giants(Schmidt) -1.5 over Tigers(Maroth) -150 (ouch...but I probably go another unit if it was -120ish)
3/2
Blue Jays(Davis) over Reds(Dempster) +100 (I need sleep ... this may have been crazy ... Jays pitching for this game will be an adventure)
1/1
Twins(Santana) over Padres(Loewer) -145 (and moving up as we speak)
2.9/2
Board looks better than yesterday - certainly more interesting.
I'm going to try to regain consciousness in time for the game at Wrigley, as it should be a beauty. Think I might tape it.
under 8.5 looks almost too good to be true, the more I think about it. Iassogna behind the plate, too, isn't he? (was at 1st yesterday). Crap...I'm gonna regret this (if I lose
)
That was quick, aye? ... talk about convenience
Added:
Yankees(Clemens)@Cubs(Wood) under 8.5 -130 (ouch)
2.6/2
Wind supposed to be blowing out? Must be something, as this number can't be reflecting these surging offensives.
You guys did catch my word, yesterday, on the (alledgedly) first under bet ever taken, aye?
1964, Jim Maloney vs Sandy Koufax, with a total of 3.5.
Koufax shutout the Reds 3-0. Cool story, I think.
Read it in a book called, Betting the Line, by Davies and Abram.
Fairly well written (everything I read sucks since my recent bout of University), but they make some blunders when talking gambling proper, e.g. one place where the statement is made that you cannot lose money when you play both sides (w/juice) while trying to catch a middle.
Dang. Whoever invented sleep should be shot.
Good Fortune To All
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sleep...sleep...I know that I'm only dreaming
Yesterday posted: 6-2 +1.6
Year (last 3 days): 15-12 +4.7
Anybody seeing this mess probably can figure out, approximately, what I'm (at least) trying to do here...
P.OPS is just my own, over-complicated (probably) form of On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage. I weigh the teams a degree vs arm of opposing starter, while leaving the rest flat due to any bullpen maneuvers. I also make some adjustment based on offensive streaks and home/away discrepancies.
PITCH was just to designate the rating that I give to each team's expected pitching for that game; the starter weighs in heavily, but the bullpen also factors in to varrying degrees (less for, say, Jason Schmidt than Mike Maroth, as my current projected runner-up for this year's NL Cy (Schmidt) can consistently go deep, while Maroth is quite a longshot for a complete game)
Trying a new system out this year. One I use for the NFL gives me pretty solid percentages to work with any pointspread, so I've been desperate for some way produce reasonable #'s for MLB games. Using the Force only works for me for so long. Results have been decent, but the system is prone to X-factors like that clown, Gonzalez, pitching for the D'Backs last night (oops). Other posts I saw warned about this clown being pummelled early and often; my confidence in that one was gone by the 1st inning, if not after reading the posts. Game was a coin-toss, and laying juice on coin-tosses is something that I am trying to avoid.
----------------------------------------------------------------
These are just the #'s I have going in. Too grogged right now to fool around with umpires, and totals in general.
Team........P.OPS.......PITCH
Yanks........816...........80
Cubs.........719...........89
------
A's.............718...........73
Phillies.......743...........82
------
Indians......703...........67
D'Backs......703...........69
------
Tigers........609...........73
Giants........804...........91.......(note: Giants strength is vs lefties)
------
Orioles.......760...........73
Cardinals....822..........73
------
Angels........794...........72
Marlins........770...........73
------
Bosox.........838...........71
Brewers......730...........67
------
Rangers......800...........67
Expos.........705...........75
------
Mariners......814...........74
Mets............694...........77
------
Jays.............820...........68
Reds............736...........67
------
Royals..........718..........67....(this is for George/Chacon)
Rockies........878..........80....(Rocks OPS over 900 vs lefties)
------
Twins...........760..........81...(# may be low for nasty Santana)
Padres.........690..........66
------
Chisox..........698.........79
Dodgers.......650..........72
------------
Didn't bother with the other two (or more, if doubleheaders are).
My overnight (if I ever regain consciousness) picks:
Temptation RESISTED:
Cubs, with Wood to stop Clemens. Negligable value.
Marlins, with the better starter, I'd say, and unpredictable Angels offense (there was a coin toss with juice I DID pass on).
Bosox, where I get a PV of +4 at -138 (rated 62-38)
Chisox, PV +1 at -120 (rated 56-44 here)
Temptation NOT resisted:
Phillies(Wolf) over A's(Harang) -135
1.35/1
Giants(Schmidt) -1.5 over Tigers(Maroth) -150 (ouch...but I probably go another unit if it was -120ish)
3/2
Blue Jays(Davis) over Reds(Dempster) +100 (I need sleep ... this may have been crazy ... Jays pitching for this game will be an adventure)
1/1
Twins(Santana) over Padres(Loewer) -145 (and moving up as we speak)
2.9/2
Board looks better than yesterday - certainly more interesting.
I'm going to try to regain consciousness in time for the game at Wrigley, as it should be a beauty. Think I might tape it.
under 8.5 looks almost too good to be true, the more I think about it. Iassogna behind the plate, too, isn't he? (was at 1st yesterday). Crap...I'm gonna regret this (if I lose
)That was quick, aye? ... talk about convenience
Added:
Yankees(Clemens)@Cubs(Wood) under 8.5 -130 (ouch)
2.6/2
Wind supposed to be blowing out? Must be something, as this number can't be reflecting these surging offensives.
You guys did catch my word, yesterday, on the (alledgedly) first under bet ever taken, aye?
1964, Jim Maloney vs Sandy Koufax, with a total of 3.5.
Koufax shutout the Reds 3-0. Cool story, I think.
Read it in a book called, Betting the Line, by Davies and Abram.
Fairly well written (everything I read sucks since my recent bout of University), but they make some blunders when talking gambling proper, e.g. one place where the statement is made that you cannot lose money when you play both sides (w/juice) while trying to catch a middle.
Dang. Whoever invented sleep should be shot.
Good Fortune To All
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sleep...sleep...I know that I'm only dreaming
Last edited:
