don't usually post much before bowl season, but just saw this and figured i'd throw it out there while it's 14.5.
texas st (+14.5) first of all, my plan is to bet against arizona st this year until they give me a good reason not to. and this one shapes up nicely. even though az st beat northern az (by 19), they didn't dominate like a 30-pt fav should. they only outgained the lumberjacks by 150 yards and had one more first down. but the stat that really jumped out at me is that they only converted 2 of 10 3rd downs. how often do you see a 30-pt fav only convert 2 of 10 3rd downs? and they followed that up at mississippi st by only converting 3 of 14. last year, mississippi st allowed opponents to convert 47% of their 3rd down attempts. that's abysmal. and their first game this year, they allowed southern miss to convert 10 of 19. so it appears that they might be pretty bad again, just not against arizona st.
alright, so the sun devils are a whopping 5 of 24 on 3rd down, against northern arizona and mississippi st.
texas st has allowed their 2 opponents to successfully convert 9 of 27 3rd downs so far.
sure, that's just one stat. but 3rd down success is pretty important.
now let's talk motivation. another big edge to the bobcats. these teams played last year, with the sun devils squeaking out a 31-28 win. the teams were tied at halftime and after 3 quarters. az st's fg was the only points scored in the 4th quarter. texas st outgained the sun devils by 53 yards and held them to 101 yards rushing on 42 carries (2.4/carry). but they had three turnovers to the sun devils' one.
az st went into that game after playing mississippi st and their next game was the start of the big 12 schedule, exactly like this year.
ok, it's 2025. so both teams have probably had 50% roster turnover, if not higher. but the coaching staffs are mostly intact. i like the bobcats to get some revenge for that close loss last year.
one concern... the bobcats are starting a redshirt freshman at qb, who only threw 15 passes last year. at least texas st was on the road (in the alamodome) last week, so this won't be his first road start.
i also threw a little on the ML at +500 for shits and giggles.
it will be interesting to see if the line moves during the week, but figured i'd better grab 14.5 while i could.
texas st (+14.5) first of all, my plan is to bet against arizona st this year until they give me a good reason not to. and this one shapes up nicely. even though az st beat northern az (by 19), they didn't dominate like a 30-pt fav should. they only outgained the lumberjacks by 150 yards and had one more first down. but the stat that really jumped out at me is that they only converted 2 of 10 3rd downs. how often do you see a 30-pt fav only convert 2 of 10 3rd downs? and they followed that up at mississippi st by only converting 3 of 14. last year, mississippi st allowed opponents to convert 47% of their 3rd down attempts. that's abysmal. and their first game this year, they allowed southern miss to convert 10 of 19. so it appears that they might be pretty bad again, just not against arizona st.
alright, so the sun devils are a whopping 5 of 24 on 3rd down, against northern arizona and mississippi st.
texas st has allowed their 2 opponents to successfully convert 9 of 27 3rd downs so far.
sure, that's just one stat. but 3rd down success is pretty important.
now let's talk motivation. another big edge to the bobcats. these teams played last year, with the sun devils squeaking out a 31-28 win. the teams were tied at halftime and after 3 quarters. az st's fg was the only points scored in the 4th quarter. texas st outgained the sun devils by 53 yards and held them to 101 yards rushing on 42 carries (2.4/carry). but they had three turnovers to the sun devils' one.
az st went into that game after playing mississippi st and their next game was the start of the big 12 schedule, exactly like this year.
ok, it's 2025. so both teams have probably had 50% roster turnover, if not higher. but the coaching staffs are mostly intact. i like the bobcats to get some revenge for that close loss last year.
one concern... the bobcats are starting a redshirt freshman at qb, who only threw 15 passes last year. at least texas st was on the road (in the alamodome) last week, so this won't be his first road start.
i also threw a little on the ML at +500 for shits and giggles.
it will be interesting to see if the line moves during the week, but figured i'd better grab 14.5 while i could.
