Ellis Starr
Handicapping Picks for 11/07/2009
Race #1 - Rating = 3
Damascus Stakes
#1 Coronet of a Baron - Fair odds 2/1
#7 Viscount - Fair odds 2/1
#3 M One Rifle - Fair odds 2/1
My full card selections for Breeders' Cup Day are available at www.equibase.com and www.trackmaster.com
Potential exacta wagers: Box 1,3,7
The cost of the wager at the $1 minimum is $6 and we win if any 2 of the 3 horses listed finish first and second in any order.
This race warrants a ?3? (Best Betting Race) rating not by virtue of a potentially live longshot or by virtue of a vulnerable favorite, it warrants the rating as the three horses listed above stand out versus the other five and because two of the three have starting odds (6 to 1 and 8 to 1) well in excess of the ?fair odds? threshold set above, so if we?re right we can start the day with a nice profit.
Coronet of a Baron finished third after leading in the stretch last year on Breeders? Cup Saturday in the Juvenile Turf, then took 10 months off and took three races to get back into top form, winning by a neck on 10/14 here at Santa Anita, the result of taking blinkers off after a two race failed experiment in them. With improving to do and with his last win coming at 6 ? furlong as well as having lost by a nose in the 2008 Del Mar Futurity, at this distance, to subsequent Breeders? Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman, Coronet of Baron could actually make short work of this field if just one horse softens up likely pacesetter M One Rifle in the first quarter mile. With a career best 110 Equibase Speed Figure to improve upon, Coronet Baron gets preference of three win contenders to get the job done in the opener.
Viscount just won over the track as well, on 10/11, at a mile and one-sixteenth, so could benefit nicely from the cut back in distance by having some extra stamina and wind in the last 1/8 of a mile. He also earned a career best figure, 109, in his recent victory, his 2nd start since adding blinkers and third with Gomez in the saddle, who rides again today. With more improving to do and with a sharp 1:12 six furlong workout coming into the race for the always tough Baffert barn, Viscount can not be ignored for an instant when considering our wagers in the opener as he starts at 8 to 1 odds.
Handicapping Picks for 11/07/2009
Race #1 - Rating = 3
Damascus Stakes
#1 Coronet of a Baron - Fair odds 2/1
#7 Viscount - Fair odds 2/1
#3 M One Rifle - Fair odds 2/1
My full card selections for Breeders' Cup Day are available at www.equibase.com and www.trackmaster.com
Potential exacta wagers: Box 1,3,7
The cost of the wager at the $1 minimum is $6 and we win if any 2 of the 3 horses listed finish first and second in any order.
This race warrants a ?3? (Best Betting Race) rating not by virtue of a potentially live longshot or by virtue of a vulnerable favorite, it warrants the rating as the three horses listed above stand out versus the other five and because two of the three have starting odds (6 to 1 and 8 to 1) well in excess of the ?fair odds? threshold set above, so if we?re right we can start the day with a nice profit.
Coronet of a Baron finished third after leading in the stretch last year on Breeders? Cup Saturday in the Juvenile Turf, then took 10 months off and took three races to get back into top form, winning by a neck on 10/14 here at Santa Anita, the result of taking blinkers off after a two race failed experiment in them. With improving to do and with his last win coming at 6 ? furlong as well as having lost by a nose in the 2008 Del Mar Futurity, at this distance, to subsequent Breeders? Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman, Coronet of Baron could actually make short work of this field if just one horse softens up likely pacesetter M One Rifle in the first quarter mile. With a career best 110 Equibase Speed Figure to improve upon, Coronet Baron gets preference of three win contenders to get the job done in the opener.
Viscount just won over the track as well, on 10/11, at a mile and one-sixteenth, so could benefit nicely from the cut back in distance by having some extra stamina and wind in the last 1/8 of a mile. He also earned a career best figure, 109, in his recent victory, his 2nd start since adding blinkers and third with Gomez in the saddle, who rides again today. With more improving to do and with a sharp 1:12 six furlong workout coming into the race for the always tough Baffert barn, Viscount can not be ignored for an instant when considering our wagers in the opener as he starts at 8 to 1 odds.
