YTD RECORD: 23-13 (+10.30 UNITS)
I've come up with 2 plays for now including my 2nd 2 unit play of the year. Will post if play any more.
ST LOUIS -122 (CARPENTER VS DAVIS LISTED)
OVER 9.5 BALTIMORE -110 (LOPEZ VS MUSSINA LISTED) **2 UNITS**
OVER 9.5 BALTIMORE-NEW YORK:
The biggest thing is this game is the fact that Baltimore's starter, Rodrigo Lopez, has just faced the Yankees 6 days ago on April 10th. Anytime a team is facing the same pitcher within a week or so, you have to take a look at possible opposite results of what happened in the first outing due to hitters/pitchers making adjustments. In that start 6 days ago, Lopez went 8 innings and gave up just 6 hits while allowing just 1 run. You also have a few of the Yankee hitters having some good career numbers vs Lopez such as Jeter at .469, Posada at .304 with 2 HR's, ARod at .364 with 3 HR's, and Sierra at .304 with 2 HR's.
So with the above noted, why not just play the Yankees? Well, the Yankees starter, Mussina, has been struggling this season so far having given up 16 hits and 5 walks in 11 total innings and throw in the fact that the several of the current Baltimore hitters have crushed him in their careers, I think there's a good chance of the Mussina struggles to continue in this one. Here's some of the Baltimore hitters career numbers vs Mussina:
JAY GIBBONS .320 average (8 hits in 25 at bats)
JAVY LOPEZ .400 average (8 hits in 20 at bats)
LUIS MATOS .308 average (8 hits in 26 at bats)
MELVIN MORA .333 average (7 hits in 21 at bats)
BRIAN ROBERTS .542 average (13 hits in 24 at bats)
MIQUEL TEJADA .355 average (11 hits in 31 at bats)
These 2 teams also have a recent history of pretty high scoring games when they play each other. So far this season, they are averaging 12 runs per game in the 4 games they've played each other. Last season, they played each other a total of 19 times and also averaged right around 12 runs per game with 12 of those 19 games also going over the total of 9.5.
Also, neither bullpen has been that special this year.with Baltimore's pen having an ERA of 5.70 for the season, while the Yanks pen is just under the 5.00 mark.
Good luck to all :thumb:
--ndnfan
I've come up with 2 plays for now including my 2nd 2 unit play of the year. Will post if play any more.
ST LOUIS -122 (CARPENTER VS DAVIS LISTED)
OVER 9.5 BALTIMORE -110 (LOPEZ VS MUSSINA LISTED) **2 UNITS**
OVER 9.5 BALTIMORE-NEW YORK:
The biggest thing is this game is the fact that Baltimore's starter, Rodrigo Lopez, has just faced the Yankees 6 days ago on April 10th. Anytime a team is facing the same pitcher within a week or so, you have to take a look at possible opposite results of what happened in the first outing due to hitters/pitchers making adjustments. In that start 6 days ago, Lopez went 8 innings and gave up just 6 hits while allowing just 1 run. You also have a few of the Yankee hitters having some good career numbers vs Lopez such as Jeter at .469, Posada at .304 with 2 HR's, ARod at .364 with 3 HR's, and Sierra at .304 with 2 HR's.
So with the above noted, why not just play the Yankees? Well, the Yankees starter, Mussina, has been struggling this season so far having given up 16 hits and 5 walks in 11 total innings and throw in the fact that the several of the current Baltimore hitters have crushed him in their careers, I think there's a good chance of the Mussina struggles to continue in this one. Here's some of the Baltimore hitters career numbers vs Mussina:
JAY GIBBONS .320 average (8 hits in 25 at bats)
JAVY LOPEZ .400 average (8 hits in 20 at bats)
LUIS MATOS .308 average (8 hits in 26 at bats)
MELVIN MORA .333 average (7 hits in 21 at bats)
BRIAN ROBERTS .542 average (13 hits in 24 at bats)
MIQUEL TEJADA .355 average (11 hits in 31 at bats)
These 2 teams also have a recent history of pretty high scoring games when they play each other. So far this season, they are averaging 12 runs per game in the 4 games they've played each other. Last season, they played each other a total of 19 times and also averaged right around 12 runs per game with 12 of those 19 games also going over the total of 9.5.
Also, neither bullpen has been that special this year.with Baltimore's pen having an ERA of 5.70 for the season, while the Yanks pen is just under the 5.00 mark.
Good luck to all :thumb:
--ndnfan
Thanks NDN!
