Saturday Bowl Games

[Smitty]

New Mexico Bowl

utsa (+9.5) 1 unit
utsa (ML) 1 unit to win 3.3. ok, a lot of things are pointing at the lobos here. but i'm going with my gut and my gut tells me the roadrunners somehow get a win today. no real lack of motivation for either team, but there's a definite edge for utsa, playing in its first ever bowl game. since the new mexico bowl was born in 2006, this is the only bowl game the lobos have played in. they are 1-2, including a loss to arizona last year in a game where they had their chances to get a win. sure, the lobos are happy to be playing in a bowl game, but at some point don't they want to play somewhere other than albuquerque?

the key for utsa will be williams and rhodes against a rush defense that gives up 4.6 yards/carry. williams had a good game against nm 2 years ago, with 95 yards on 9 carries, but he got no help as the lobos won 21-9.

all that said, a big concern.... a hyped up utsa defense against the triple option offense could spell huge trouble. you need to stay disciplined against that offense. and i don't think the roadrunners have seen any option offense this year. not sure if 2 weeks is enough time to really prep for it.

 

[Smitty]

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

san diego st (ML) 2 units to win 3.7. pure and simple, this game is about motivation to me. a year ago, houston was playing florida st on new years eve. they opened this season with a win over #3 oklahama. and now they're playing san diego st on 12/17 in the las vegas bowl. oh, and the cougars lost their coach to texas. this is a team that somehow lost to smu this year, so as talented as they are, they certainly can be beaten by the aztecs.

here is what the cougars have done away from houston this year:

win at cincinnati (wow, this doesn't seem very impressive now, does it?)
win at texas st
lose at navy
lose at smu
lose at memphis

so the combined record of the 2 teams houston beat away from home is 6-18.

san diego st may not be super fired up for this game either, but they have the added motivation of getting pumphrey the all-time rushing record. one big concern, which is what is keeping this at a 2-unit play... wow, sd st has played a lot of poor run defenses this year. and houston is 2nd in the country, only giving up 2.87 yards/carry. here is the national rankings of sd st's opponents' rush defense:

127
86
98
73
123
122
90
117
128
88
99
88

that's out of 128 teams. so pumphrey has been fortunate enough to run against the absolutely 2 worst rush defenses in the country and 5 of the 12 worst.

keep an eye on this in the first half. if houston is tackling well and actually looks like they are interested in this game. they may be a good bet in the 2nd half, because if they shut down pumphrey and chapman is forced to throw.... the aztecs could get blown out.

huh, just found something else that makes me like sd st.... they led the country in INTs. if ward starts getting a little loose with some throws, the aztecs will make him pay.

over (51) 2 units. i'm counting on neither defense being terribly interested in tackling anyone today. if pumphrey can break a few runs and get the record, i think the houston defense is really going to let up and then this game could just end up going back and forth like a tennis match.

 

[ejthree]

Nice write up and BOL...Lets cash these gifts....

 

[Smitty]

Camellia Bowl

Camellia Bowl

toledo (ML) 1 unit to win 1. holy crap, this is a tough one. two very evenly matched teams. ap st has the better defense, but toledo has the more balanced offense. i'm giving the edge to the rockets because i like wagering against teams playing in the same bowl for the 2nd consecutive year.

over (60.5) 2 units. i think this is the better play, as both teams should have success moving the ball. plus, with two evenly matched teams, maybe we'll get OT!

 

[Smitty]

Nice write up and BOL...Lets cash these gifts....

thanks, ej! before new years is usually when i make some money on the bowl games. hopefully that continues today.

 

[ejthree]

thanks, ej! before new years is usually when i make some money on the bowl games. hopefully that continues today.

Well i plan on being right there with you....One late game i have interest in is Washington 1st half...I'm thinking like 10 may be the number...Any take on this or is it to early?

 

[Smitty]

Cure Bowl

Cure Bowl

ucf (-4) 2 units. crap, am i really playing a first year coach at least 3 times today? oh well. and am i really playing a home team in a bowl game? *sigh* normally i feel home teams in bowl games may lack some motivation. but not one season after going 0-12. 0-and friggin'-12. arkansas st really turned things around after a shitty start that included a loss to central arkansas. but with the exception of that huge, almost inexplicable, win at troy, the red wolves didn't beat a single team with a winning record. sure, they're not playing a team with a winning record today, but ucf is far better than the bottom feeders in the sun belt that ark st has been rolling over. granted, ucf didn't beat any bowl teams either, but they had 2nd half leads over temple and houston, both of whom are far better teams than ark st.

 

[Smitty]

Well i plan on being right there with you....One late game i have interest in is Washington 1st half...I'm thinking like 10 may be the number...Any take on this or is it to early?

that's one of the few games that far out that i've thought about. i feel like hurts makes some bad decisions and washington is tied for 4th in the country in INTs. and chris petersen is one of the few coaches who is probably better than saban with time to prepare. i like that first half play, because the tide can certainly wear them down and pull away in the 2nd half.

 

[ejthree]

that's one of the few games that far out that i've thought about. i feel like hurts makes some bad decisions and washington is tied for 4th in the country in INTs. and chris petersen is one of the few coaches who is probably better than saban with time to prepare. i like that first half play, because the tide can certainly wear them down and pull away in the 2nd half.

:0074:0074

 

[Smitty]

New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans Bowl

ULL (ML) 1 unit to win 2.1. i really should stay away from this one. but the ragin' cajuns won 4 straight new orleans bowls under mark hudspeth. after a 1-year absence, they're back. i really thought the golden eagles would build on last year's success, but instead they barely qualified for a bowl game this year. well, here's another 1st-year coach in a bowl game, so i'm finally betting against one of these.

according to sagarin, both of these teams are worse than northern iowa, who went 5-6 at D1-AA.

under (57.5) 1 unit. i almost played over, until i saw one kinda interesting thing... both defenses have been good on 3rd down and neither offense has been good on 3rd down. we may see a lot of punting in this one.

 

[Smitty]

toledo (ML) 1 unit to win 1. holy crap, this is a tough one. two very evenly matched teams. ap st has the better defense, but toledo has the more balanced offense. i'm giving the edge to the rockets because i like wagering against teams playing in the same bowl for the 2nd consecutive year.

over (60.5) 2 units. i think this is the better play, as both teams should have success moving the ball. plus, with two evenly matched teams, maybe we'll get OT!

wow. spectacular job by the toledo head coach to take the delay of game penalty to make the tying fg 5 yards longer. :facepalm:

i don't know if nick saban and bill belichick are actually great football coaches, or just decent coaches and the only 2 in the country who have a clue what they're doing.