Saturday Bowl Games

[Smitty]

Taxslayer Bowl

miss st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.3. no, i don't love the bulldogs today, especially without fitzgerald. this is just an anti-louisville play. here's a list of all the cardinals' wins this year:

purdue
north carolina
kent st
murray st
florida st
virginia
syracuse
kentucky

sure, there are some bowl teams in there, but nothing really jumps out at you as being an impressive win.

before losing fitzgerald very early in the egg bowl, miss st had three losses on the season. to georgia, alabama, and auburn. wow.

this is a small play for me, but i think there's value in taking a shot with the bulldogs. i don't know that losing mullen is a heartbreaker for these kids. and they've had 5 weeks to put a game plan in place that will make thompson comfortable.

also, and this is purely a gut play, i'm taking over 63.5 for 2 units.

 

[Smitty]

LIberty Bowl

LIberty Bowl

iowa st (+3.5) 1 unit
iowa st (ML) 1 unit to win 1.5. 2 factors for me in this game. 1) i love betting against home teams in bowl games. 2) in a game where both teams can light it up, i'll take the 28th ranked scoring defense over the 104th ranked scoring defense. iowa st sees high powered offenses every week in the big 12. they should be able to get a few stops.

one interesting stat i saw while digging into this game... iowa st has not lost a fumble all season. in fact, since kempt took over at qb, the cyclones have only turned the ball over 3 times in 7 games. memphis has thrived on forcing turnovers (tied for second in the country), so something has to give today.

 

[ejthree]

Taxslayer Bowl

miss st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.3. no, i don't love the bulldogs today, especially without fitzgerald. this is just an anti-louisville play. here's a list of all the cardinals' wins this year:

purdue
north carolina
kent st
murray st
florida st
virginia
syracuse
kentucky

sure, there are some bowl teams in there, but nothing really jumps out at you as being an impressive win.

before losing fitzgerald very early in the egg bowl, miss st had three losses on the season. to georgia, alabama, and auburn. wow.

this is a small play for me, but i think there's value in taking a shot with the bulldogs. i don't know that losing mullen is a heartbreaker for these kids. and they've had 5 weeks to put a game plan in place that will make thompson comfortable.

also, and this is purely a gut play, i'm taking over 63.5 for 2 units.

I'm like your play Smitty seems to be a tough one without the QB but i like the SEC +7 against what believe to be a below avg defense...GL with this play:0074 Also my buddies moved the Miami line...They were big yday...

 

[#cruncher]

Taxslayer Bowl

miss st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.3. no, i don't love the bulldogs today, especially without fitzgerald. this is just an anti-louisville play. here's a list of all the cardinals' wins this year:

purdue
north carolina
kent st
murray st
florida st
virginia
syracuse
kentucky

sure, there are some bowl teams in there, but nothing really jumps out at you as being an impressive win.



before losing fitzgerald very early in the egg bowl, miss st had three losses on the season. to georgia, alabama, and auburn. wow.

this is a small play for me, but i think there's value in taking a shot with the bulldogs. i don't know that losing mullen is a heartbreaker for these kids. and they've had 5 weeks to put a game plan in place that will make thompson comfortable.

also, and this is purely a gut play, i'm taking over 63.5 for 2 units.

Also Smitty, I don't know if he is still there and/or coaching in this game but the DC for Mississippi St (can't remember his name right now) was the DC for Louisville last year or so and was pink slipped by Petrino after last year. If anyone knows how to slow down Lamar he should know how and I'm sure he would love to make that happen, considering the circumstances.

 

[IX_Bender]

iowa st (+3.5) 1 unit
iowa st (ML) 1 unit to win 1.5. 2 factors for me in this game. 1) i love betting against home teams in bowl games. 2) in a game where both teams can light it up, i'll take the 28th ranked scoring defense over the 104th ranked scoring defense. iowa st sees high powered offenses every week in the big 12. they should be able to get a few stops.

one interesting stat i saw while digging into this game... iowa st has not lost a fumble all season. in fact, since kempt took over at qb, the cyclones have only turned the ball over 3 times in 7 games. memphis has thrived on forcing turnovers (tied for second in the country), so something has to give today.

nice writeup GL

its all about the Montgomery.

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

washington (ML) 2 units to win 2.5. if i had to boil this down to one thing... it would be chris peterson against james franklin.

but i don't have to. so... if you make mcsorley throw the ball, you can beat penn st. and washington led the country, allowing 92 rushing yards/game and 2.6 yards/carry. and teams have done a great job of shutting down barkley lately. here is his yards/carry over the last 8 games:

2.8 (Indiana)
4.7 (Northwestern) if you throw out his 53-yard run, he had 22 yards on 15 carries
7.2 (Michigan) after his 69-yard run on the first play, he had 39 yards on 14 carries
2.1 (ohio st)
4.5 (michigan st)
2.5 (rutgers. rutgers!!)
9.3 (nebraska)
4.8 (maryland)

so i think washington has a very good chance to make psu one-dimensional.

on the other side of the ball, washington was very balanced this season. if you focus too much on gaskin, jake browning will pick you apart.

oh, almost forgot... washington also has the revenge factor. they have played psu twice, and lost both times. granted, those games were in 1983 and 1921, but huskies never forget.

 

[Smitty]

I'm like your play Smitty seems to be a tough one without the QB but i like the SEC +7 against what believe to be a below avg defense...GL with this play:0074 Also my buddies moved the Miami line...They were big yday...

well, good start for the over.

the hurricanes are another home team i'm wagering against today.

 

[Smitty]

Also Smitty, I don't know if he is still there and/or coaching in this game but the DC for Mississippi St (can't remember his name right now) was the DC for Louisville last year or so and was pink slipped by Petrino after last year. If anyone knows how to slow down Lamar he should know how and I'm sure he would love to make that happen, considering the circumstances.

oh, piece of cake. make him stay in the pocket and make an accurate throw downfield.

 

[Smitty]

nice writeup GL

its all about the Montgomery.

no doubt. if they can actually establish a solid ground game, i love my chances.

it's also possible memphis doesn't have anything left in the tank after the double OT loss to UCF. that was a real kick in the nuts.

 

[Smitty]

Orange Bowl

Orange Bowl

wisconsin (-6.5) 2 units. this is a tough one for me. i thought wisconsin was overrated all year. but miami? very overrated. both these teams took a nut punch (should that be "nutpunch"?) late in the season. wisky in the big 10 championship game and miami in the second-to-last game (and then clemson kicked them again while they were down). so who bounces back to focus on this game tonight? well, once again, i'm wagering against the home team. they can't get away from the distractions. a road trip can be a good thing for a football team trying to regain focus, even if it's for a bowl game.

and to elaborate on wisconsin just a little.... that defense is pretty solid, as is their ground game. but hornibrook has been very careless with the ball. i saw a stat late in the season that he had the highest INT per attempt ratio in the country. that is not good, when your team is built on defense and running the ball. your qb CANNOT turn the ball over. and that is worrisome today, because miami picked off 17 passes this year. i would be ok if wisconsin didn't throw a pass today. just wear down that miami defense.

so, anyway, in a battle of two overrated teams that took late season shots to the nuts, i'm going with the (in my opinion) less overrated road team.