Saturday Bowls

[Smitty]

ah, bowl season. my challenge every year is to win enough before new years day to ensure a profit even after I get my ass kicked on new years day and after.

New Mexico Bowl

Colorado st (ML) 1 unit to win 2.2. this line movement is scaring me a little, but I'm sticking with the rams. no shortage of motivation for either team, as both should be pretty excited to be in a bowl game. maybe a slight edge for the rams, playing a team from the pac 12.

this is a tough matchup for Colorado state's porous defensive secondary, but I expect the rams to control the game on the ground. bibbs has had an incredible year. he didn't start until the 6th game of the season, and he set a school record with 28 tds, all on the ground. oh, and in this stadium, he is averaging 298 yards/game. ok, ok, so that was one game against the 4th-worst rushing defense in the country. details, details. but the cougars give up 184 yards/game on the ground, so bibbs should find some room to run.

 

[Smitty]

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

fresno st (+6) 3 units
(ML) 2 units to win 5. obviously I love the bulldogs today. the way they bounced back from their loss to beat a solid Utah st team was impressive. and there will be NO shortage of motivation for them to play the trojans today. the bulldogs have covered their only 2 matchups against usc. they won the 1992 freedom bowl 24-7 and they lost a great game at usc in 2005. at the time, fresno was the biggest bet I'd ever made on a game. they played a hell of a game but just couldn't tackle reggie bush. I think they were getting 21 that day and lost by 8. anyway, enough of the trip down memory lane.

ok, start with the motivation. the bulldogs love getting a shot at usc. no doubt they will be ready for this game. on the other sideline.... huge question marks as to the trojans' motivation. nobody goes to usc hoping to play in the las vegas bowl. and combine that with the coaching change (great decision, haden! firing the guy who turned the season around and who the players loved.) and, oh, the few distractions around las vegas if you're not entirely focused on a football game, and I think there's a huge edge to the bulldogs.

on the field, a huge advantage for fresno also. usc has a very, very solid front 7. but their defensive secondary is by far the weakest link. and here comes derek carr. if they can give carr time to throw (and fresno only allowed 11 sacks all season), he will pick apart that defense.

on the other side of the ball, usc gave up 33 sacks this year. and fresno tied for the lead in the country with 3.25 sacks/game. fresno's run defense was also solid, allowing 3.7 yards/carry. if lee is healthy for usc, the trojans will hit a few big plays. but I don't think their offense will be able to sustain many drives, while derek carr should have a big game.

 

[Bradjmad22]

Smitty, how do you feel about the bulldogs team total over 27.5? Do you think Carr will shred USC's pass D like Arizona st did? Thanks in advance

 

[Smitty]

Famous* Idaho Potato Bowl

Famous* Idaho Potato Bowl

*I'm fairly certain the idaho potato is only famous because of that sex tape. have you seen it? sour cream everywhere. frankly, i was disgusted. and hungry. but i digress.

sd st (-2) 1 unit. on one hand, hey, big motivational edge for the bulls. they should be really happy to be in a bowl game. but then they find out for their break from buffalo... they get to go to idaho. to play san diego state. i gotta figure that kills a lot of their motivational edge. for shits and giggles, here's every team that buffalo beat this year:

stony brook
UConn
eastern mich
western mich
umass
kent
ohio
Miami, oh

only one bowl team, and sd st is better than ohio.

don't get me wrong - I'm not making the argument that sd st will be fired up to play buffalo today. i just don't think there will be a big gap in motivation.

over (50) 2 units. if I'm right that neither team will be really excited to play for the giant potato trophy (I'm assuming that's what the winner gets), i think that opens it up for the offenses. UB's defense has put up solid numbers, but in large part that's due to 6 games against offenses ranked in the bottom 20 in the country. they gave up 9.5 points/game to those teams. and 37.6 points/game in their other 5 games against D1 opponents. ok, if you want to take out the game against Baylor, they still gave up 29.5/game in the other 4 games.

 

[Smitty]

Smitty, how do you feel about the bulldogs team total over 27.5? Do you think Carr will shred USC's pass D like Arizona st did? Thanks in advance

brad, I've never played a TT in my life, so take this with a grain of salt. I'm leaning under for the game, but i don't have a strong opinion on it. if fresno gets off to a good start and usc gives up, carr could certainly light up the usc secondary. and he's going to have to, because i don't think they'll have any success on the ground. BUT... usc knows full well that fresno will be chucking the ball all over the field. if they throw the kitchen sink at carr and he doesn't handle the pressure well, this could actually be a low-scoring game. i certainly hope not, because that should favor usc. but it wouldn't surprise me either.

gun to my head, yeah, I'd play over the 27.5. I'm looking for something like 34-24 (fresno winning, of course).

GL, sir.

 

[Smitty]

New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans Bowl

Tulane (-2.5) 2 units. it sounds like broadway won't play for the ragin' cajuns, so I'm keeping this to 2 units. HUGE motivational edge to the green wave. they won 2 games each of the last 2 years and now they're in their first bowl game since 2002. oh, and they are out for revenge after getting smoked by the ragin' cajuns last year. Louisiana has won this bowl game the last 2 years. will they be pumped up to be the first team in history to win 3 straight new orleans bowls? i kinda doubt it.

Tulane's defense has been very good this year. that could be partially due to playing a lot of poor offenses, but they held east carolina to 19 points in regulation. that's the fewest ecu scored against anyone other than virginia tech.

under (48.5) 2 units. as bad as louisiana's defense is, i don't think tulane has the firepower to light them up. and tulane's defense has been the key to their success this year.

 

[Ronnie]

Good Luck ole pal!:toast:

 

[ldabdou]

Love ur. Write-ups bud. Thanks for taking the time. GL and happy holidays.

 

[Smitty]

thanks, Ronnie! GL to you, too. you know, unless you're on usc.

ldabdou, it's a labor of love. i think writing out my reasoning really helps. GL and happy holidays to you, too.

 

[Ronnie]

thanks, Ronnie! GL to you, too. you know, unless you're on usc.

ldabdou, it's a labor of love. i think writing out my reasoning really helps. GL and happy holidays to you, too.

Go Bulldogs!!

 

[IX_Bender]

GL Smitty

Im riding that green wave with ya.

 

[Smitty]

thanks, bender! i hate betting against backup qbs, but i don't think there will any letdown from the tulane d.

 

[Smitty]

Go Bulldogs!!

:toast:

 

[Smitty]

well that's a very shitty and expensive start to the bowl season.

 

[Smitty]

holy fucknuts. I'm still a little stunned by the end of the colorado state game. wow.

not the one i needed to hit out of the first two games, but it certainly helps.