Saturday Bowls

[Smitty]

Pinstripe Bowl

nd (-14.5) 1 unit. don't like this game. and I can make about 10 arguments for why rutgers should cover this line. but I just feel like the line opened really high for a reason. if it actually drops to 14, i'll be worried, but I think they'll keep it above that mark.

 

[Smitty]

Belk Bowl

Belk Bowl

The #1 department store-sponsored bowl game!

unc (-2.5) 1 unit. another one I really don't love. I hate betting bowl teams that are basically playing home games. however, I think that is negated here, as cincinnati is playing in the belk bowl for the 2nd straight season.

cincinnati pretty much just beat a bunch of cupcakes this year:

purdue
northwestern st
Miami, oh
temple
UConn
Memphis
smu
rutgers
Houston (by far their best win, I think)

they also lost to south florida and were blown out by Illinois.

Cincinnati's run defense put up some good numbers, only allowing 3/1 yards/carry. but they did not face a run offense ranked better than 80th. that's impressive. unc doesn't have a great ground game, but Williams has added another dimension and they've been more effective running the ball since he took over.

over (57) 1 unit. both offenses should be able to move the ball today.

 

[Smitty]

Russell Athletic Bowl

Russell Athletic Bowl

Miami (+4.5) 2 units. if I trusted the hurricanes, this would be a bigger play. but this one is all about motivation. a year ago, Louisville was getting ready to play florida in a bcs game. they came into this season hoping to play for the national championship. I don't see them getting fired up for the russell athletic bowl. plus, Louisville was pretty bad ATS, failing to cover in 6 of their last 8 games.

over (58.5) 1 unit. again, a lack of motivation should lead to points. plus, morris finished the season throwing 9 TDs in the last 4 games with only 2 INTs.

 

[Smitty]

B-dubs Bowl

B-dubs Bowl

k st (-6) 1 unit. I really liked the wildcats in this game until I heard gardner was out. betting against backup qbs in their first start is a great way to lose a lot of money. that said, I don't know how michigan is going to bounce back from the loss to ohio st.

two teams moving in completely opposites directions the last half of the year. k st started TERRIBLY, then had 2 close losses to ok st and Baylor, then won 5 of their last 6. with the only loss to oklahoma and... a backup qb making his first start. michigan started 5-0, then lost 5 of its last 7, with the only wins over indiana and northwestern.

leaning under, but can't pull the trigger just yet.