Saturday Dec 17 cbb system plays

[grandpa]

Haven't been posting these here, but have been playing with 59-61 % success over L3 weeks. (Who cares, right?)

Similar to Billy Blastoff system, in terms of lines being off, but arrived at through different ratings.

Played these already:


Rice +15.5
New Mexico -2
Texas Tech +2
Marshall -2
Drake -1
Youngstown St -3

Have others that are near-fits, but am waiting to see how lines move.

Official YTD record posting at Jack's= 0-0-0

 

[grandpa]

These are the ones I am just keepin an eye on:

Ill-Chi -2
UL-Lafayette +12.5
Wofford +15.5
Long Beach +5.5
NO +7.5
NC -18
CS-Northridge -5.5

 

[SixFive]

gl2u, grandpa!

 

[Billy Blastoff]

ill-chi line is dead right leave that game alone. Only game u bet id question is Texas Tch my numbers have UNLV a 3 point favorite line opened at 1 giving no team an advantage. Good luck . Thats alot of games to play , have you ever considered setting your paramaters a little smaller to weed out a few more games.

 

[TON]

whats the sys, if you dont mind me asking ???

 

[grandpa]

Scratch: Youngstown St

They are 5-0 ATS, but the line is climbing in their favor , and I don't like it anymore.

Billy B- Thanks for the input. I have UNLV as a nine point favorite so it makes me really love T Tech.

Saturdays always present a tricky problem as many games fit the system I use. My filtering includes throwing out the really wide discrepancies, as well as those with lines over 18 points either way.

I know your qfactor rating system is top-secret, but I admit I started following your work last year, and have adapted the philosophy of "why is the line so off-go the other way". I had to come up with my own rating system, and it is a hybrid of several computer systems. I have found little success with anything other than college bb with this method, and even in college bb it tails off at the end of the yr.

I have tried in vain, to figure out how you come up with your numbers, but admittedly am clueless as to how they are derived. I think fatigue in legs is figured in somehow, but I am guessing.

GL all

 

[RexBudler]

Best of luck to you today grandpa

 

[grandpa]

Thanks SixFive and Rex.


Rice +15.5
New Mexico -2
Texas Tech +2
Marshall -2
Drake -1 winner

 

[grandpa]

NM and Drake the lone winners, TT I am so PO'ed at I can't see straight--cost me a 6-team teaser!

2-3 on system

4 plays for Sunday:

Temple -5

Mich St -22.5

Syracuse -10

Furman +8.5 ( love this play!)


GFLall

 

[Billy Blastoff]

NM and Drake the lone winners, TT I am so PO'ed at I can't see straight--cost me a 6-team teaser!

4 plays for Sunday:
Temple -5
Mich St -22.5
Syracuse -10
Furman +8.5 ( love this play!)
GFLall

Be carefull with the temple play , for some reason Temple has a qfactor in red which means beware.

But as always good luck

PS I knew Texas Tch was a bad play, but at +9 I can easly see why you would play them

 

[bryanz]

Syracuse may lose this one on the floor. I would not bet on them in this spot. Might be wrong but they have work to do to beat decent teams by this number.

 

[buddy]

Syracuse may lose this one on the floor. I would not bet on them in this spot. Might be wrong but they have work to do to beat decent teams by this number.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

 

[grandpa]

Did not expect the "CUSE to be a poupolar pick--Hell- I don't like it myself. But the numbers indicate they should be a 2 point favorite, so who am I kidding that I know more about these teams/this game, than the boys n Vegas ( or Costa Rica or wherever)?

 

[grandpa]

The Cuse is listed as 10-point fave here, but the smart shoppers who waited got them at -9 or 8.5, and of course won. I will record it as a tie, since I poste -10.

Same with Furman, who ended up getting 10.5, losing by 9, and failing to cover, officially, under the lines posted here.

Temple, of course, has no issues with the line movements or any other excuses for their pitiful performance.

MSU out to 25 point lead at the break--can they hold it?