Saturday First Click

[Clem D]

Seton Hall +1 over The Johnnies

I have them 10 better.

100

Umass -1.5 over richmond
I make them 7 beeter at home and think they win by dd's
200

Detroit minus 7.5
I make them -13 at home.
100

More later no time for write ups huge card.

 

[Clem D]

St bonnies +16 over Temple
100
wichita st -9.5
200

 

[Clem D]

Bc minus 8
200

Tulane +19.5 over louisville
100

 

[buddy]

Clem,

How long does it take you to handicap a matchup.

I'm guessing it has to be under 5 seconds.

 

[Clem D]

Buddy these are strictly based on my pwer numbers. I make the lines, if it is a big descrepancy I make the play. I try not to put any bias in my overnight wagers.

 

[Clem D]

So to answer you question It takes me about 8 hours a week to adjust my power numbers every week, When the numbers are "on" it takes about a minute per game. After I make these plays I go back and look at injuries and other variables. Im strictly trying to catch bad lines in my first click threads.

 

[buddy]

I unnerstand.

My handicapping is opposite, I suppose.

I approach the matchup with a suspicious attitude.

I'm usually thinkin' the Linesmaker is tryin' to pull a fast one.

Here's a good example:

game # 635 / 636

SO ALA -3 vs North Texas (8:05 PM EST)

SO ALA is 5-13 and North Texas is 10-7

Last night, SO ALA+4 loses the cover in a last second heartbreaker vs Denver, 62-67.

In the game previous, they played very well as 15 pt road dogs at Western Kty. Despite the SU loss, they secured a well-deserved cover....+12 ATS.

I feel bad for SO ALA because they lost the cover vs Denver, but the team is only interested in the SU outcome.

But the fact of the matter is that was a very hard fought game....and I'm just wondering if fatigue won't be a factor vs North Texas.

I'm gonna bet SO ALA is hungry for a solid "W" and gets it together and pounds North Texas.

 

[vyrus858]

Buddy,
that attitude will only lead you to not play games you feel confident about, and you have to be confident in your plays to where u hit in the 55% range if not your just gonna bet stupid games you dont feel are "suspicious"...I doubt vegas is trying to pull a ast one on you on any given Big Sky game lol

 

[buddy]

Vyrus,

If you owned a sportsbook and had a filthy rich client who loved to bet a 25K plus only on games in the Big Sky Conference...would you pay attention?

 

[vyrus858]

If I owned a sportsbook I would have 15 other customers betting just as much on different games and id trust big brother (Vegas) over my own instincts on what some big shot is betting...thats just my take

 

[Clem D]

Buddy that south bama team broke my heart last night.

 

[Clem D]

Here is a good example of my capping
Rider just blew manhattan out.
Siena just got beat up by Niagara.

Vegas responds by hanging the number at 13

I make rider a 56 at home and siena a 40 on the road. So I see Rider 8 points better. The 13 seems like too many and I should take it especially since I think Rider overachieved against Manhattan and will sleep walk through the first half.

Ok I talked myself into it
Siena +13
200

 

[buddy]

Clembone,

I just looked at the RIDER ~ Siena matchup.

Hmmm?

Here's my concern.

Siena off a loss/no cover in the role of a home dog.

If Siena would've lost/no cover in the role of a road dog, I'd be all over Siena + on Saturday.

Their loss in the role of a home dog makes me shy away.

(Don'cha just love this stuff?)

 

[vyrus858]

any 300 plays boss?

 

[Clem D]

There will be some upgrades possibly when i get on the injury page and check scheduling vyrus.

Im playing conservatively because I know I will have a big list

 

[Clem D]

And I gave out a few tonight homes.. Hope you had them

 

[vyrus858]

Got Iona thanks boss...you really do NAIL the MAAC...best of luck

 

[Clem D]

I just wrote up tenn martin in Billy Blast offs thread.

The line is way off. Eku should be favored by 7

they are giving us 13.5. Based on the same theory I used in the Marist game. Talent wise these two teams are not that far off. One has overachieved the other has underachieved.
I'll take the 13.5 which is an overlay
300

 

[RexBudler]

gl to you Clem

 

[caper]

buddy, imo w/l records are meaningless unless you factor sos; what relevance does a cupcake schedule early season have to do w/ today?...as for siena, niagara could have won that game by 40 but substituted early (up by 30) & their backup guards are terrible...mclintock got a lot of his points late against the niagara subs...saints are in total disarray & a local source (sportswriter) tells me haddix won't play tonite, take that fwiw...kojo still out but even if he came back he's a frosh who's missed 6 games...these guys were missing layups, unbelievable...gotta go w/ a pretty good rider team, gl, caper