well, i'll be damned. this whole 'staying disciplined' thing really works. only one play yesterday, and i hit with syracuse. so not only haven't i given anything back (yet), but i've actually increased my profits during the conference tournaments. that said, probably too many plays today. a whopping 3. 2 units each.
michigan state (-7.5) this spartan team is not quite as good as in years past (where is their big goofy redhead, who can step out and hit 3's? don't they always have one of those?), but they are much better than ohio state. osu simply isn't the same team without david lighty. msu won both matchups this year, beating osu on the boards both times (big surprise). i expect msu to gradually wear down osu and pull away late. one question... if msu gets a #1 seed, are they the worst #1 ever?
purdue (-3.5) staying in the big ten. this time i'm going with the team that lost both matchups during the season. one of those losses, purdue didn't have hummel, and the other was an OT loss when purdue couldn't make a free throw (15 of 27). and this time, no frazier for illinois. so often teams rise up in their first game without a key player, but can they sustain that 2 days in a row? i doubt it. plus, i simply think purdue is the better team here.
louisville (-6.5) c'mon, i couldn't play syracuse two days in a row. as good a matchup as wv was for a tired syracuse team yesterday, louisville is a terrible matchup for them. i'm just going to list the reasons (and yes, i know they're all pretty obvious):
1) whereas wv is a half court team, louisville presses you all over the court. they will tire you out during the course of one game, never mind if you've played 3 straight, including 7 OTs).
2) syracuse goes 7 deep. that makes any game against a pressing team difficult.
3) louisville goes, what, 23 deep? that's a big advantage in the conference tournament.
4) flynn and devendorf make too many bad decisions with the ball. that will kill them against louisville. the first time these two teams played this year, those 2 guys combined for 7 assists and 6 turnovers. not good from your two primary ballhandlers. and that was a home game. they also combined to make 8 of 25 shots from the floor.
5) andy rautins is syracuse's best outside shooter. pitino recognizes this and will do everything he can to prevent rautins from getting open looks. they held him to 1/7 from the field before he got hurt with 7 minutes to go in the game.
6) louisville plays defense. syracuse went into that first matchup averaging 80 points per game. louisville held them to 57, their 2nd lowest output of the year.
7) based on that 2nd half last night, louisville is focused on winning this tounament. they fucked around most of the 1st half, shooting way too many 3 pointers. but in the 2nd half, they were all business.
realistically, the only way louisville doesn't win the big east with a very solid win tonight is if they play like they did in the first half last night. that's what kills them... they do it every now and then. they fall in love with jump shots. they keep missing, and then they can't apply the press. their free throw shooting is also poor, but they should have a comfortable enough lead so it won't matter.
michigan state (-7.5) this spartan team is not quite as good as in years past (where is their big goofy redhead, who can step out and hit 3's? don't they always have one of those?), but they are much better than ohio state. osu simply isn't the same team without david lighty. msu won both matchups this year, beating osu on the boards both times (big surprise). i expect msu to gradually wear down osu and pull away late. one question... if msu gets a #1 seed, are they the worst #1 ever?
purdue (-3.5) staying in the big ten. this time i'm going with the team that lost both matchups during the season. one of those losses, purdue didn't have hummel, and the other was an OT loss when purdue couldn't make a free throw (15 of 27). and this time, no frazier for illinois. so often teams rise up in their first game without a key player, but can they sustain that 2 days in a row? i doubt it. plus, i simply think purdue is the better team here.
louisville (-6.5) c'mon, i couldn't play syracuse two days in a row. as good a matchup as wv was for a tired syracuse team yesterday, louisville is a terrible matchup for them. i'm just going to list the reasons (and yes, i know they're all pretty obvious):
1) whereas wv is a half court team, louisville presses you all over the court. they will tire you out during the course of one game, never mind if you've played 3 straight, including 7 OTs).
2) syracuse goes 7 deep. that makes any game against a pressing team difficult.
3) louisville goes, what, 23 deep? that's a big advantage in the conference tournament.
4) flynn and devendorf make too many bad decisions with the ball. that will kill them against louisville. the first time these two teams played this year, those 2 guys combined for 7 assists and 6 turnovers. not good from your two primary ballhandlers. and that was a home game. they also combined to make 8 of 25 shots from the floor.
5) andy rautins is syracuse's best outside shooter. pitino recognizes this and will do everything he can to prevent rautins from getting open looks. they held him to 1/7 from the field before he got hurt with 7 minutes to go in the game.
6) louisville plays defense. syracuse went into that first matchup averaging 80 points per game. louisville held them to 57, their 2nd lowest output of the year.
7) based on that 2nd half last night, louisville is focused on winning this tounament. they fucked around most of the 1st half, shooting way too many 3 pointers. but in the 2nd half, they were all business.
realistically, the only way louisville doesn't win the big east with a very solid win tonight is if they play like they did in the first half last night. that's what kills them... they do it every now and then. they fall in love with jump shots. they keep missing, and then they can't apply the press. their free throw shooting is also poor, but they should have a comfortable enough lead so it won't matter.
