Saturday July 14th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Saturday July 14th 2007

yesterday: 5-2 +5.65
July: 51-43 +3.49
ml 32-22 +5.97
rl 2-3 +0.25
totals 13-16 -5.34
parlays 4-2 +2.61
system picks 1-0 yesterday; 16-6 in July (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-2 yesterday; 15-15 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Phil 72% (-174)+8 RL 58 (+119)+12
hou 55 (+105)+6
lad 59 (Lowe-Morris)
Fla 60 (-163)-2
Mil 63 (-179)-2
Atl 54 (-137)-4 pitt 46 (+129)+2
Mets 67 (-177)+3 RL 52 (+119)+6
sd 61 (-126)+5
cws 63 (+106)+14
Clev 73 (-209)+5 RL 59 (-104)+8
Bost 67 (-211)-1 RL 52 (-108)even
nyy 70 (-201)+3 RL 58 (-128)+1
oak 54 (+103)+4
Laa 65 (-206)-3
det 62 (-116)+8

system totals

pitt@Atl un9 76 (-124)+20 --ump Culbreth is even
sd@Ariz un9 69 (-120)+14 --Cuzzi historically a good under-ump, but he's 11-6 on the over this season with an average K%


Hopefully yesterday can be the start of a nice streak. Went 4-0 on the moneyline, 0-1 on the runline and 1-0 on parlays. 0-1 on totals?not working for me this month. System sides went 10-4 yesterday, hitting the high calls with a pair of 72's and a 66. I'm expecting 70's to be less frequent but there's 3 today.

Phillies, Indians and Yankees are all kinda pricey; I'll try the most affordable?the Phillies?after the way they mashed the ball Friday. Other 2 I'm looking maybe to parlay. Astros, Padres, Chisox and Tigers are also on my agenda. Phillies, Chisox, Indians and Tigers are system picks with these numbers. Dodgers would have been, but they've taken it off the board so I don't know if Penny is Q or what's happening. The Lad 63% actually includes a slight penalty for Penny due to recent blister troubles; I don't know if that's why it's off or what. Will look for news, or if you have some then let me know.

Will post what's played.
GL

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Ex - Just a heads up for ya on the Dodgers game. D. Lowe is pitching instead of Penny.

 

[wlmackey]

Whats better the 70's....Clev, Nyy or Philly OR

+14 CWS


Which is more important or which is a better inidicator for a play?

Thanks and keep up the great work!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks MoeshY...I'll have to redo that one; should still favour the Dodgers.

wlmackey, I like the Phillies and Chisox best, along with the Tigers.

ROI for system picks
--------------------------------------------
(Phillies,chisox,tigers)

Phillies 72% (-174)+8

-174 is 57.5 cents on the dollar
72 x 0.575 = 41.4
28 x -1......= -28
------------------------------
...................13.4%

Not too bad.
Would be higher if less juice.

-----------------------------------------------------

chisox 63% (+106)+14

63 x 1.06 = 66.78
37 x -1.....= -37
------------------------------
..................29.78%

That's great.
Even if you figure I'm off by 5 or 6 % there's still lotsa value on this play. Great line. Vazquez has been great while Cabrera hasn't. Chisox can be excused for the 0 yesterday...I don't think about anybody could hit Bedard the past couple weeks. Chisox always have the :scared factor, too, making the play a little less tasty. Still...despite the Chisox losing ways, they've won 50% of the road games vs right-handers. Phillies play looks almost as good as, despite the 55% drop in ROI, you've got a 32% reduction in risk. Based on this I would say the Chisox play looks a little better...as long as you don't mind the :scared .
----------------------------------------------------

tigers 62% (-116)+8

-116 is 86.2 cents otd
62 x 0.862 = 53.444
38 x -1......= -38
---------------------------------
....................15.444%

Slightly better than the Phillies, above, but considerably greater risk, so I'd rank this one in 3rd place. Tigers seems like a safe place to put money--maybe safer than the Chisox--but the Mariners have won 78% of their home games vs lefties, so far this season. They're .682 vs lefties on the season overall. Buyer Beware!

-------------------------------------------------------

I'm on all 3 right now--my 3 biggest plays--so I'm hoping at least for a 2-1 for these puppies.

Be posting picks soon.
Can't pull an allnighter after getting up early for that Cubs game...coulda shoulda woulda pounded it, but there will be lots of numbers to throttle in the coming months so I guess I'm biding my time...want to get up a good 10 or 15 units on the month before pushing it.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

curious about the Indians...not playing it straight, though:

Clev 73% (-209)+5

-209 is 47.8 cents otd
73 x 0.478 = 34.894
27 x -1......= -27
---------------------------------
..................7.894


Thought so. Too pricey.
Try the runline, in case my numbers make sense:

Clev -1.5 59% (-104)+8

-104 is 96.1 cents otd
59 x 0.961 = 56.699
41 x -1......= -41
----------------------------------
....................15.699%


Not bad. Not as good as the system picks as they all have less risk. If there was a runline to be played today than this might be it; Indians have mashed Meche before, Meche is coming in fairly cold, Sabathia AND the Indians in general have done great at home (Clev's won 73% at home vs righties), and the Royals have won 27% of their games on the road vs lefties.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

while I'm on a roll, how about a parlay...

Indians 73%
nyy 70%
----------------------
51% chance to hit

parlay 51% (+122)+6

51 x 1.22 = 62.22
49 x -1....= -49
------------------------------
.................13.22%


Not as desirable when you compare it to the above plays...greater risk and lower ROI. I'm up a few units on parlays this month so I'm looking to experiment.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I gotta get these down somewhere...why use paper...

some team totals (relative system number; + for overs, etc)

cards u4.5 -135 (-12)
Brewers ov4.5 -125 (+8)
D'Backs u4 -115 (-16)
chisox ov4 -130 (+8)
Balt u4 +105 (-12)
kc u4 -135 (-8)
Clev ov5 -120 (+8)
jays u4 -115 (-9)
nyy ov5.5 -140 (+13)
Tb u4.5 -165 (-9)
det ov4.5 -125 (+9)


That's the biggest numbers.
They represent the team's bats against the opposing team's pitcher's, so the Yankees have the biggest PLUS (+13) as this is the most lopsided matchup between hitting (Yanksticks) and pitching (Sonnanstine + crappy pen). That one and the biggest minus (-16, D'Backs) have me interested. I know this is Chase Field and not Petco, but the D'Backs (before Friday) really haven't been hitting and Young and a great bullpen should keep the D'Backs to under 5, at least, I would think.

I'm still working out my last couple of plays.
Feeling lucky.
Thinking about some IF action.

:SIB

 

[ESPNTED]

Hey EX have you been playing these team total? If so how you been doing on them? Love to see how it goes tomorrow on these team total plays. It looks like you have something there.

cards u4.5 -135 (-12)
Brewers ov4.5 -125 (+8)
D'Backs u4 -115 (-16)
chisox ov4 -130 (+8)
Balt u4 +105 (-12)
kc u4 -135 (-8)
Clev ov5 -120 (+8)
jays u4 -115 (-9)
nyy ov5.5 -140 (+13)
Tb u4.5 -165 (-9)
det ov4.5 -125 (+9)

 

[Riskbreaker]

yanks are a bit pricey today but enjoy a best case pitch/hit matchup. both against righties. i play em on the runline... minus TWO
GL today EP

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

hey ESPNTED,

I'm doing fairly on team totals, the few times that I try them. Been counting them in my totals record so I can't say for certain. Got lucky hitting the Bosox under 6 yesterday as part of a parlay.

Thanks Riskbreaker.

I'll need some luck with the mess I'm about to post.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear Jet

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear Jet

PLAYS

system picks

Phillies -174 3.48/2
chisox +106 2/2.12
tigers -116 2.32/2

other picks

astros +105 1/1.05
padres -126 1.26/1

totals

pitt@Atl un9 -124 1/0.81
sd@Ariz un9 -120 1/0.83
D'Backs under 4 -115 1.07/0.93

2-teamer
--Mets ml
--Indians ml
+132
0.75/1

2-teamer
--Mets ml
--Bosox ml
+131
0.7/0.92

2-teamer
--padres ml
--tigers ml
+234
0.85/2

2-teamer
--Indians ml
--yankees ml
+122
1/1.22

2-teamer
--Bosox ml
--yankees ml
+122
0.7/0.85

9-team IF bet
1.Indians -1.5 0.63/0.6
2.Phillies -1.5 0.5/0.55
3.astros 0.8/0.8
4.chisox 0.84/0.8
5.D'Backs u4 1.15/1
6.nyy ov5.5 1.4/1
7.det ov4.5 1.25/1
8.Mets -1.5 0.75/0.83
9.pitt@Atl u9 1.3/1
0.63 to win max.7.58


Probably a few too many longshots today, with all the parlays I'm playing. Over 4 units risked on these oddballs, but I've got double that going on the system picks, which seem to be hot in July (72.7% winners). I also think that the Astros have just a little value, as they can hit lefties (OPS .793) but are only winning at 30% on the road vs lefties (Astros .458 vs lefties overall). Padres, too, with the remarkably consistent Young facing a struggling Livan; Padres crappy sticks may no doubt make that one interesting, but I don't think that the D'Backs will repeat yesterday's outburst, hence my approval of both the under and, especially, the D'Backs under that very nice 4; D'Backs slumping and down to .737 vs righties (they're only .657 vs lefties) but they have won more than 62% of their games at home vs right-handers. Padres and Tigers both with better road winning percentages than home winning percentages, so I think that they make a nice parlay paying at over 2-to-1. Lefties going at Turner have a good chance to save my under 9; Braves OPS at home to lefties is hovering around .700, so maybe the Braves sticks can be silenced for a change.

Sunday could see 8 games at over 60%. Indians, Yankees and Bosox will all be closer to 70 than 60. Don't know who's going for Laa, if Lackey's going today?I'll have to redo that game (tomorrow?today). None of those 4 will have decent lines (not that a lack of decent lines is stopping me from trying today), and I might even consider trying the Rangers depending on who the Angels are chuckin'; not that I care for McCarthy (prefer today's Loe, right now?he's pretty hot?almost tried under 8.5 in Anaheim). Astros will have a very hot Wandy going at Wrigley (vs Marquis); a win today by the Astros and a doggy line and I'll likely try the Astros. Cards might salvage a game in Philly (Wainwright-Eaton) though I won't touch it at less than +120; maybe not at all if the Phillies bang out anywhere near the 23 hits they had Friday on Saturday. Chisox will have another shot in Baltimore (Danks-Olson), though they're only winning 42% of their games on the road to lefties while the O's are at 58% at home vs lefties; still?Chisox win today will have me thinking that they might get it done; probably no better than a -104 for the Chisox Sunday. Tigers will be looking at Verlander vs Weaver and not only is Justin fairly hot currently (last few months) but he's also done great work vs the M's in the past. I'd be surprised if we can get the Tigers at better than -135 or -140 Sunday, so the value in that play will be limited.

May you rock.

 

[T OFF]

EXPO SAW WHERE LOWE WAS MOVED UP TO START ON MONDAY BECAUSE OF BLISTER PROBLEM

GOOD LUCK TODAY :SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Flippin' Jenks with a 2-strike, 2-out wild pitch to score the tying run. What a flippin' loser this guy is; 3 singles with 1 out mixed in, to start the 9th...flippin' tool.

Indians loss also hurts me, on a couple of parlays.

Really need the Padres and Tigers to come through.
That might save my day.

See you with Sunday's number soon.
Looks like slim pickins...for me, at least.

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

fvck Jenks...he's a bum. The Chi-town bullpen is just a pile of chit as a whole...can't believe we lost that one X!