Saturday June 30th - Happy Birthday Mom!

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Saturday June 30th 2007

yesterday: 5-4 +5.80
June: 170-160 +3.28
ml 86-65 +4.92
rl 10-13 -9.06
totals 58-37 +25.73
parlays 16-45 -18.31
system picks 2-0 yesterday (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-2 yesterday; still 10-2 last 5 days, and 74-38 in June (66% winners)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

mil 60% (-109)+7
col 52 (-103)+1
mets 53 (-118)-2
atl 68 (-147)+8 RL 54 (+111)+6
Pitt 62 (-158)even
stl 53 (-101)+2
Sf 63 (-125)+7
Lad 54 (-107)+2
Nyy 54 (-147)-6 a's 46 (+139)+4
Det 64 (-145)+4
laa 55 (-136)-3
Clev 74 (-250)+2 RL 61 (-114)+7
Bost 76 (-271)+2 RL 64 (-125)+8
Kc 54 (-108)+2
tor 58 (-138)even

system totals

ariz@Sf un8.5 74% (+101)+24 --Gibson totally an over-ump; pass here
sd@Lad un7 87 (-119)+32 --ump Reynolds is even
min@Det un9.5 70 (+101)+20 --ump Culbreth is even
tor@Seat un9 69 (-125)+13 --ump Davidson is even


Man this game can be heart-wrenching to follow; Padres almost blew a 7-2 lead which would have totally blown my night. As it was I'm happy to grab the cash; hasn't been enough plusses for me lately. Went 0-1 on totals and AGAIN was stupid enough to throw money away on parlays (well?I actually hit my only parlay?lost 2 IF bets). Shoulda swept the moneyline but the Brewers closer is a tool. On to Saturday?

Tomorrow (today) I'm looking at the Brewers, Braves and Giants?maybe the Tigers. Also looking at the Indians and Bosox on the runline. Might try totals, like that under between Peavy and Penny, but I'm not too thrilled about missing that under 7.5 today (yesterday). System did call the Rockies-Astros game over but the best I could do was to put it on my (losing) IF plays. Only 3 of them are system totals as we got a crummy ump (for the under) going in San Fran. Miller might have another good game here as the Twins are only .710 OPS vs lefties. If Slowey has a decent game then I think this one stays under; Slowey hasn't looked so great last couple of starts, though; Tigers moneyline seems safer?you would think they would want to bounce back strong after yesterday's disaster.

I dunno?maybe should take the day off and hold onto this precious June plus?this month has been a struggle?

?NAH!!!...
?who's kidding who?...
I'll let the total fall where it may; I think there's some worthwhile plays Saturday.

Will post picks.
GL

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system pick
--------------------------------------------------------------------
(brewers,braves,Giants,Indians RL,Bosox RL)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

brewers 60% (-109)+7 value indicator; makes this one just barely a system pick

argument for game:
--brewers .837 OPS vs L
--Cubs .761 OPS vs R
--brewers .901 OPS last 7 days
--Cubs .805 OPS last 7 days
(wonder if that should make the OVER a play?)
--edge to Cubs starter here
--edge to Brewers BP (just keep Cordero OUT!!)

argument against game:
--brewers only 16-20 on the road
--brewers OPS on the road .751
--Cubs have won 7 straight
--Marshall seems pretty sharp this year

-109 is 91.7 cents on the dollar
60 x 0.917 = 55.02
40 x -1.......= -40
--------------------------------
....................15.02

Could be worse. Cubs gotta lose eventually.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

braves 68% (-147)+8 V.I.

argument for game:
--braves .754 OPS vs R
--Marlins .740 OPS vs R
--braves .785 OPS on the road
--Marlins .748 OPS at home
--Hudson is WAYYYYY better than Kim
--braves monster production yesterday suggest at least a little of the same today
--braves have won 4 straight
--Marlins 4-6 their last 10
--braves 20-17 on the road
--Marlins 16-24 at home

argument against game:
--Braves OPS .710 last 7 days

-147 is 68 cents on the dollar
68 x 0.68 = 46.24
32 x -1.....= -32
-----------------------------
..................14.24%

Slightly worse than the Brewers ROI, but with a higher probability.
Slightly better looking with Braves.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Giants 63% (-125)+7 V.I.

argument for game:
--D'Backs OPS vs L only .668
--D'Backs OPS on the road .693
--Lowry currently rated higher than Davis; Davis's era has rose over his past 4 starts from 3.05 to 4.16...he's 3-3 career vs Giants; Lowry is 5-1, 2.79 era vs D'Backs and is 6-1 at home with a 2.61 era

argument against game:
--Giants OPS vs L only .700
--D'Backs 21-16 on the road
--Giants have lost 3 straight and are only 19-21 at home

-125 is 80 cents on the dollar
63 x 0.8 = 50.4
37 x -1...= -37
----------------------------
.................13.4%

Similar to the first two.
Braves look best so far due to highest probability.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Indians -1.5 61% (-114)+7 V.I.

argument for game:
--Indians OPS vs L .805
--Indians OPS at home .827 and they lead MLB in runs scored at home
--Indians .786 OPS last 7 days
--d'rays .682 OPS last 7 days
--Indians 28-12 at home
--d'rays 14-21 on the road
--Howell 0-1, 4.91 era vs Indians
--Sabathia 6-1, 2.45 vs D'Rays
--Sabathia 8-1, 3.05 at home; Indians have 10 of 11 of his home starts...that's 90.9%...I guess a 74% call on the game doesn't seem out of line

argument against game:
--d'rays OPS vs L .829
--d'rays OPS on the road .811
--Indians DIDN'T destroy D'Rays yesterday

-114 is 87.7 cents on the dollar
61 x 0.877 = 53.497
39 x -1......= -39
--------------------------------
...................14.497%

Again similar; there's no +10 value indicators today, so probably no 20% ROI's.
I still think Braves are best play so far.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Bosox -1.5 64% (-125)+8 V.I.

argument for game:
--Bosox .778 OPS vs R
--rangers .739 OPS vs R
--Bosox .820 OPS at home
--rangers .732 OPS on the road
--Beckett is WAY WAYYY better than Tejeda; Tejeda 3-4, 6.95 on the road; Becket 1-0, 2.92 against Rangers and is 5-1 in 8 starts at home, Bosox are 6-2 in those starts (that's 75%...sounds like the 76% call)

argument against game:
--Tejeda threw a good game against Bosox April 6th
--Becket era at home 4.22
--Bosox have lost his last 2 home starts (vs Rockies and Yanks)
--Bosox didn't demolish Texas yesterday

-125 is 80 cents on the dollar
64 x 0.8 = 51.2
36 x -1...= -36
---------------------------
.................15.2%

Again similar. This is maybe the 2nd best play, after the Braves (2nd highest probability with the highest ROI).

----------------------------------------------------------------------

That took a while.

Time for a puff, a shave, and a shower; gettin' together with Ma for her birthday tomorrow.

Hope the lot of these come in.
I'll be a player.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

brewers -109 1.63/1.5
braves -142 2.84/2
Giants -125 1.25/1
Indians -1.5 -114 2/1.75
Red Sox -1.5 -125 2.5/2

other picks

Tigers -140 1.4/1

totals

sd@Lad un7 -119 2.38/2
min@Det un9.5 +101 0.5/0.5
tor@Seat un9 -125 0.62/0.5

4-teamer (high system calls)
--braves ml
--Tigers ml
--Indians ml
--Red Sox ml
+460
0.5/2.3

2-teamer (low system calls)
--rockies ml
--mets ml
+274
0.5/1.37


Putting my money where my mouth is, so to speak. System picks went 2-0 yesterday so maybe I can get them on a bit of a streak. Would be nice to keep my head above water for the month, but I'm not going to let that stop me from taking some chances today; I think that there's some value in these plays. Well?maybe except for the parlays?if I have half a brain then I'll leave the parlays alone in July?I certainly don't want to post 45 losers there again. Wish I could say that I was sorry to see June end. Oh well?Last 3 months are gonna rock?I can feel it.

I need to crash?tomorrow's report will have to wait for tomorrow.

Hope your day is as prosperous as mine.
GL

:SIB

 

[Dr. Whitetail]

:00x21

Great analyses. Thank you and GL.

 

[LIGHT-IT-UP]

Good Luck today X!!! Keep up the great work you do with all your stats. Awesome work!!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Just checkin' in after what has been a very long day...didn't get nearly enough sleep last night, AND I was hoping to do some month-end updates tonight.

Grabbed 28 cold ones...that will help.
Think I got enough smoke to get me through; flippin' has to last me until Monday, when I see my "doctor".

Tomorrow will be light for me; I'm not going to allow myself to risk too much in this condition.

Mostly I came in to say thanks for the kind words.

I could be doing worse, today.
BUT,
there is no excuse for the Bosox building a 4-0 lead through 2 only to lose the game...c'mon...couldn't cash another??
Bosox not producing much last while.
Wish my Jays would string together some victories to put some pressure on them.

Like I say, Thanks for the words.

:SIB

 

[ESPNTED]

Thanks for all the hard work you do on all these stat on the game EX! Great job! I look at & use a lot of your stats! Oh Happy Birthday to your Mom!
:00x15 :clap:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks ESPNTED.

Geez does the Blue Jays Jason Frasor ever suck; every time this guy comes into a game it seems like he's giving up runs...how on earth his era is under 4 I'll never know.

And I guess I shoulda bet the farm on that Peavy-Penny game UNDER...was my highest rated under call of the year. My (stupid) under play at Comerica yesterday made me take it easy, thinking that total calls might be slip-slidin'-away.

1-1 into the 9th...I'm probably not speaking to soon to say this one is in the bag.

Jays are blowing the under there.
I should still pick up 2 or 3 units, leaving me (somehow) up for the month.

Tomorrow's board is brutal.
Currently it's trying to tell me that the D'Rays are one of the best plays on the board...gimme a break...I'll be playin' light Sunday.

:SIB