Saturday June 9th 2007
yesterday: 9-11 -2.40
June: 59-52 +1.75
ml 26-16 +3.08
rl 2-5 -7.22
totals 27-19 +10.24
parlays 4-12 -4.35
system picks 2-3 yesterday; now 94-51 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1-2 yesterday; 22-12 in June
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Atl 58% (-143)-1
Nyy 77 (-240)+6 RL 64 (-118)+9
Cws 54 (-125)-2
oak 61 (-112)+8
Det 53 (-139)-6 mets 47 (+131)+3
tb 55 (+112)+7
Balt 60 (-140)+1
Kc 55 (+104)+5
Cin 53 (+105)+4
Min 80 (-350)+2 RL 68 (-155)+7
Stl 53 (-114)-1
mil 64 (-150)+4
Ariz 52 (+104)+2
Sd 53 (-144)-7 seat 47 (+136)+4
Lad 55 (-157)-7 tor 45 (+149)+4
system totals
cubs@Atl un8.5 79% (-120)+24 --Tschida is a decent under-ump
oak@Sf un7.5 65 (-125)+9 --Darling is a bit of an OVER-ump
mets@Det un9 79 (-130)+22 --Schrieber is a definate OVER-ump
clev@Cin ov11 66 (+102)+16 --ump Hudson is even
wash@Min ov8 66 (-110)+13 --ump Emmel is even
tor@Lad un8 75 (-120)+20 --Carlson is a bit of an under-ump
Interleague is just one, big pain in the ass. System fluked into the high #, with the Dodgers (71%), but missed a key 69 (Phillies?c'mon Freddy!) and went only 1-2 on 65's (Cubs,Brewers,Twins). Phillies hurt me the most?hit the over, at least. Got pushed on my two biggest totals yesterday; went 1-1-1 on team totals. Missed another pair of parlays; they're costing me this month; the flippin' runline, too.
I need to study today's options a little further. Need to decide how much of an indication we can get out of Friday's results. I think that the Blue Jays have a chance to win today, going by yesterday's game (under a good possibility there, again). Something else I'm looking at is the possibility of parlaying today's two gimmes (Yanks & Twins). With my current lines I get exactly 81 cents on the dollar; that's about a -123 line; considering 80% times 77% gives me a 61.6% chance of hitting the parlay, I've got a +6 Value Indicator on the play; not bad for 61%; will likely try it.
As for totals, too bad about Schrieber going in Detroit; has a good chance to play under. Twins might get 8, themselves, off of Speigner & co. Under looks worth a shot at Turner while over might be the play at Great American.
Be back later to post picks.
GL
yesterday: 9-11 -2.40
June: 59-52 +1.75
ml 26-16 +3.08
rl 2-5 -7.22
totals 27-19 +10.24
parlays 4-12 -4.35
system picks 2-3 yesterday; now 94-51 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1-2 yesterday; 22-12 in June
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Atl 58% (-143)-1
Nyy 77 (-240)+6 RL 64 (-118)+9
Cws 54 (-125)-2
oak 61 (-112)+8
Det 53 (-139)-6 mets 47 (+131)+3
tb 55 (+112)+7
Balt 60 (-140)+1
Kc 55 (+104)+5
Cin 53 (+105)+4
Min 80 (-350)+2 RL 68 (-155)+7
Stl 53 (-114)-1
mil 64 (-150)+4
Ariz 52 (+104)+2
Sd 53 (-144)-7 seat 47 (+136)+4
Lad 55 (-157)-7 tor 45 (+149)+4
system totals
cubs@Atl un8.5 79% (-120)+24 --Tschida is a decent under-ump
oak@Sf un7.5 65 (-125)+9 --Darling is a bit of an OVER-ump
mets@Det un9 79 (-130)+22 --Schrieber is a definate OVER-ump
clev@Cin ov11 66 (+102)+16 --ump Hudson is even
wash@Min ov8 66 (-110)+13 --ump Emmel is even
tor@Lad un8 75 (-120)+20 --Carlson is a bit of an under-ump
Interleague is just one, big pain in the ass. System fluked into the high #, with the Dodgers (71%), but missed a key 69 (Phillies?c'mon Freddy!) and went only 1-2 on 65's (Cubs,Brewers,Twins). Phillies hurt me the most?hit the over, at least. Got pushed on my two biggest totals yesterday; went 1-1-1 on team totals. Missed another pair of parlays; they're costing me this month; the flippin' runline, too.
I need to study today's options a little further. Need to decide how much of an indication we can get out of Friday's results. I think that the Blue Jays have a chance to win today, going by yesterday's game (under a good possibility there, again). Something else I'm looking at is the possibility of parlaying today's two gimmes (Yanks & Twins). With my current lines I get exactly 81 cents on the dollar; that's about a -123 line; considering 80% times 77% gives me a 61.6% chance of hitting the parlay, I've got a +6 Value Indicator on the play; not bad for 61%; will likely try it.
As for totals, too bad about Schrieber going in Detroit; has a good chance to play under. Twins might get 8, themselves, off of Speigner & co. Under looks worth a shot at Turner while over might be the play at Great American.
Be back later to post picks.
GL
