Saturday May 5th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Saturday May 5th 2007

yesterday: 10-5 +6.6
May: 22-15 +10.99
ml 15-3 +12.97
rl 1-2 -1.3
totals 4-6 -1.33
parlays 2-4 +0.65
system sides 4-0 yesterday, now 40-23 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Cubs 73% (-201)+6 RL 60 (-110)+7
Stl 55 (-125)-1 (Wells vs Albers or Williams)
phil 52 (+100)+2
Fla 57 (-107)+5
Atl 75 (-147)+15 RL 61 (+147)+20
Mil 70 (-140)+11 RL 57 (+156)+17
Cin 56 (-135)-2
Ariz 60 (Webb vs Sele, Park, or Sosa)
Laa 63 (-147)+3
Nyy 73 (-259)even RL 61 (-131)+4
clev 53 (-110)even
Min 65 (-214)-4 RL 51 (-110)-2
det 54 (-120)-1
Tb 63 (-137)+5
tor 69 (-155)+8 RL 56 (+103)+6

system totals

phil@Sf un9 68% (-110)+15 --ump EVEN (Barksdale)
lad@Atl un8.5 80 (-115)+26 --ump slight under-ump (Davidson)
det@Kc ov9.5 71 (-120)+16 --ump Cousins a good over-ump


Slept right through Friday?woke up to find out I'd picked 7 out of 9 sides right?major relief; I had a little too much action, yesterday. System sides picked 10 of 15 winners yesterday, now 38-16 for May (70% winners!). Missed the system total, yesterday, with Jays not scoring (Jerry Meals ump'ed the game?if I'd known this, I don't play the over?he's an under-ump). System totals still doing okay; 8-3 for May.
Sweetness?even caught a Sabres O.T. win yesterday.

Be back to post my plays in a bit.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Anaheim

in Anaheim

I think I'm passing on the Angels temptation:
Garland has pitched well, but has nothing to show for it.
Garland 8-0 during day games last year (era 4.50).

Could be low scoring, but I don't like the 8.
Ump Bell is EVEN.

 

[RAYMOND]

gl today

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks RAY

in Tampa,

A's OPS vs lefties .682

D'Rays OPS vs lefties .852

Kazmir was good in his last, at Oakland, only problem being 2 solo shots allowed.
He's allowed 7 homers in 37.2, probably why the era is up at 4.06
He's 3-1 vs A's in 6 career starts.

Kennedy a nice 2.86 era but is 0-2 as A's have scored 7 runs in his 4 starts.
This is his first start vs T'Bay.

ump Layne is pretty EVEN, but he's always had a low K%.
Neither Kennedy or Kazmir have had real walk issues this year.
ump shouldn't affect the total

8.5 is tough at Tropicana, not really a pitcher's park
still...A's can't hit and Kennedy may calm D'Rays sticks awhile

tempting under

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Florida

in Florida

ump Carlson is a bit of an under-ump, otherwise I might try this one over.

System calls for over 9.5 at 59%, but without a small deduction for the ump.

Marlins can hit lefties fine; both Wells and Mitre don't impress

Marlins win if Mitre gives them anything.

Think I'm a spectator here.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Cincinnati

in Cincinnati

Cook has horrible career numbers vs Reds (6.59 era in 13.2 IP.
And he was rocked in his last start (vs hot-hitting Braves).
He's made 2 excellent starts this year (at pitcher-friendly San Diego then at pitcher-friendly Shea), which is why his era is down at 3.83.
Probably won't be that low at season's end.

Harang is 4-0 but has looked shaky in 3 of 6 starts (at home he's had 1 poor start and 2 solid).
He's 3-1 w/2.57 era vs Rocks.
2.89 era at home, too, with 19 K in 18.2 IP.

ump Reliford is a bit of an OVER-ump

and Great American sure ain't a pitcher's park.
8.5 is pretty low

If Rocks can get a good 3-4 off Harang & co. then this one should go OVER

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at K.C.

at K.C.

Tigers are an incredible 5-0 in Maroth starts.
Still, he's lucky to have his era under 5 (4.82) after surrenduring 38 hits in 28 IP.
His longest outing was his last, at 6.2 IP, and he'll probably need help again; Tigers bullpen nowhere near as good as it was last year.
Maroth rocked at home vs KC on April 17th (5.2 IP 7 hits 4 er).

Perez used to be a decent pitcher.
That was like 5 years ago.
43 hits in 28.2 IP this year, with a 6.91 era.
Mind you, he's been a little better his past 2.
He has an era of 18.00 in 3 innings work vs Tigers.

ump Cousins is a decent OVER-ump

That's all I need to hear.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

let's keep on chooglin'

let's keep on chooglin'

PLAYS

system sides

Braves -147 4.41/3
Brewers -140 2.8/2
jays -155 2.32/1.5

other sides

Nyy -1.5 -131 1.96/1.5
indians -110 0.77/0.7
Twins -1.5 -105 1.05/1
D'Rays -137 1.37/1
tigers -120 1.2/1

totals

phil@Sf un9 -105 0.52/0.5
lad@Atl un8.5 -111 0.77/0.7
col@Cin ov8.5 +102 0.7/0.71
a's@T'Bay u8.5 -110 0.55/0.5
det@Kc ov9.5 -120 0.84/0.7
jays@Tex un9.5 -125 0.83/0.67

2-teamer
--Cubs ml
--Nyy ml
+107
1/1.07

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Twins ml
+140
0.5/0.7

2-teamer
--Twins ml
--jays ml
+140
0.5/0.7


Boy, that took a while to complete.
Sure was a hell of a lot of fun though (always is following a nice win).

Jays haven't really hit Padilla, and I'm not sure about V.Wells' status (flu), otherwise I'd like the Jays more (Halladay era of 6.10 in 8 starts at Ameriquest Field, but threw a beauty there last year in his only appearance (7.2 IP shutout ball), and he just shut down Texas in his last start (CG). Texas not hitting, at all, this year (.704 OPS through April, after being .800 last year). Here's hoping the bullpen doesn't %$!& this up.

May the bird of paradise fly up your nose.


:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

adding

adding

2-teamer
--Cubs ml
--Twins ml
+114
0.7/0.8

Was going to try the Cubs RL, if there was a high total (meaning better chance for long balls), but I'll try 'em this way.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

whew...that was close

Hill's pitch count getting up there.
58 through 3.

Gonna need some bp help, here.

And maybe a clutch hit or two (have had Patterson on the ropes)

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

unreal...

.423 hitter Derrek Lee...

still no key hit

5-0 I'm not comfy with.

Especially with Hill just spending time on the basepaths.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

champs?

champs?

geez...

wish I'd been fading the Cards all season...

Now getting smoked 7-0 at home

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hill 94 through 6 IP

He should go his 7, again.

Guy is incredible this year.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at least a fine finish

at least a fine finish

Yes...

D'Rays and under.

I'll take it. Been a rough day.

I actually turn a bit of a plus, overall, as I had Pistons, Red Wings, and Senators.

Almost tried Webb (phew...Mets up 2-0).

Tomorrow will be quiet for me
(I need some stress relief)

I'll be posting tomorrow's system numbers shortly.

Peace

:SIB