saturday ncaa ......

gman2

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some mac notes:

the western michigan/buffalo final was a relatively nondescript game until the final 15:00. western michigan led 24-0 after the 3rd quarter (which, at the time, extended the buffalo touchdown drought to 15 quarters) but buffalo scored 21 4th quarter points to make it a final of 31-21. the game was actually all but assured of being a 24-14 final. western michigan had the ball 1st/10 on the buffalo 46 yard line. 99 times out of 100, theres 2 or 3 running plays and the game is over. but wmu broke a 44-yard run down to the buffalo 2 yard line. they then ran two plays for no gain before throwing the ball into endzone for a 2-yard touchdown with 1:04 left. that put wmu up 31-14. but buffalo went 76 yards in a minute and scored to make the final 31-21. so it was a bit of a front door / back door cover. the game should have been a 24-14 final. but wmu scored a fluke TD trying to run the clock out. but buffalo returned the favor with a miraculous (by buffalo standards) drive of their own ... true freshman drew willy was 30/38 for 288 yards in his first career start for buffalo ... wmu played their first game without ryan cubit who sufferered a career ending injury against temple. they split their qb snaps between senior robbie haas and freshman tim hiller. theyre expected to start haas this week and work hiller into the game at some point and give him some reps

the suspensions that have totally depleted and decimated ball state this year are finally over after this week. but they will still be missing starting running back charles wynn, who is serving another one-game suspension for his role in the textbook mess at ball state. they'll also be without two other starters and two backups on defense.

akron led 17-7 over central michigan at halftime last week but the cmu outscored the zips 24-0 in the 2nd half for a 31-17 win ... akron quarterback luke getsy thew the ball 57 times, completing 30 of them for two touchdowns, but also 3 interceptions ... central michigan's true freshman RB ontario sneed went over 120 yards for the third time in five career games. he also caught 6 passes, including a 45-yard touchdown.

eastern michigan led kent 27-7 in the 4th quarter but got complacent and let the flashes cut it to 27-20 before sealing the game with an interception late ... last years toledo/emich game had almost 1100 yards of total offense. gradkowski and bohnet were both over 300 yards passing.

toledo QB bruce gradkowski is expected to play on saturday night against eastern michigan after going through a full week of practice. he threw for 338 yards against emu last year.
 
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kneifl

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I think E Michigan will cover that spread. Too many points for Toledo, if it was 10 it would be a toss up and I wouldn't bet it but 20 is a no brainer.

kneifl
 

halfbuck34

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gman, what are your thoughts on the BG/Ohio game. I took BG last week winning big, do you see them rolling again??? thanks for your MAC info! :mj14:
 

ScreaminPain

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gman2 said:
some mac notes:

toledo QB bruce gradkowski is expected to play on saturday night against eastern michigan after going through a full week of practice. he threw for 338 yards against emu last year.

Gman....stay away from that shift key. You slipped up with the Bruce Gradkowski title. e.e.cummings is watching you... :)

Good Luck on your plays this weekend
 

gman2

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ScreaminPain said:
Gman....stay away from that shift key. You slipped up with the Bruce Gradkowski title. e.e.cummings is watching you... :)

Good Luck on your plays this weekend

if there was a such a thing as lower case numbers, id be using them too. ;)
 

gman2

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small play on under 46.5 memphis/south florida.
hey, ucf is still a pseudo-mac team, so its a bit of a mac play, lol.

after going winless in 2004, central florida has won 2 straight games and their program is showing some signs of life as they enter their first season in conference usa. last week against louisiana-lafayette, they got their running game going for the first time all year. true freshman kevin smith had 110 yards on 25 carries. prior to that, the knights were really struggling to move the ball on the ground. they were very one-dimensional and relied heavily on steven moffett making plays with his arm and legs from the quarterback spot.

but the biggest improvement for central florida has come on defense. they've gone from the bottom of division I-A last year to a respectable 57th in total defense through four games. no, they don't have any big names, nor are the dominant in any one area. they are just playing hard and not getting beat for huge chunks of yards at a time. the only area where they're a little vulnerable is when it comes to stopping the run.

and that's precisely what memphis is going to try and establish on saturday night at the citrus bowl. there is absolutely no reason for the tigers to come in trying to throw the ball around when they've got a workhorse back that can control the game on the ground. central florida hasn't seen a back like deangelo williams in any of their games to date. memphis will likely be following the south florida blueprint on how to attack central florida, because south florida held a commanding 39:45 -- 20:15 time of possession edge in their matchup a few weeks ago and they were the only team to dominate ucf this year.

memphis should be able to have a lot of success with long, methodical drives much the same way south florida did against ucf, but the knights defense has been very good the last two weeks, and that certainly can be attributed to their mini-winning streak. this program hasn't tasted success in awhile and they're really playing inspired football right now. they might not extend their streak to three games, but it won't be because of a lack of effort. this should be a tight defensive battle.
 

gman2

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kneifl:

very busy week trying to get all the "other" stuff prepared. sorry, didnt see your post. i think its a tricky game. toledo, much like bowling green, is a completely different team at home. eastern michigan has the weapons to keep up with them, but they cant make mistakes. last week against kent, emich had the ball 1st and goal from the 2 and settled for a field goal and first and 10 from about the 12 or so and settled for a field goal. they cant settle for fg's if theyre gonna keep up with toledo. 20 points is nothing in the glass bowl. toledo scores points in the blink of an eye there. but that was of the mac games i didnt play this week. gun to my head -- i think emu hangs inside the number. gradkowski could be a little rusty from a long layoff. emich put up a ton of yards in last years game, but were down by 20+ before rallying. they cant dig themselves a hole early on saturday night. theres an interesting subplot to this game, even though emich denies any bad blood. the eagles were pissed that toledo edited some game film and didnt include all the footage of a trick play that they run successfully one week earlier. emu coach genyk was pissed and went to league office about it. obviously the players will decide the game on saturday but emu seems really motivated and theyre playing well. but this will be a major test. think they sneak inside the number though, but cant go near it
 

kneifl

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Thanks,

For some reason it stuck out at me when I saw it...

Just too many points, but I can see where you're coming from Toledo is at home. Gotta stick with getting 20.

kneifl
 

hm23

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agree with your analysis of the Memphis v. UCF game. I myself have UCF though the under is certainly worth a look...will consider it.

UCF is certainly an improved team in their front seven...and fully capable of being the CUSA surprise team this year.

EMU just lacks the explosion they possessed last year. I know with a great PK there's a tendency to rely on him a bit but the Eagles seem to need him more this year. Any reasons for this...is it the downturn in the run game outside of Bohnet.

thanks.
 

gman2

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hm23:

i think you hit the nail on the head. the running game is what theyve lacked this year. i cant say for certain why sherrell and genyk havent been on the same page this year, but sherrell was a 1,000 yard rusher before genyk got to emu but he started the season as an afterthought and was buried on genyk's depth chart behind two true freshmen (harrison and conner). both freshmen got their chance and were a bit overmatched, so genyk has not given sherrell carries that he probably deserves. but its a weird situation. sherrell is back as a 5th year senior but considered transferring this past offseason. obviously if youre considering transferring with one year of eligibility left, then something just isnt right. emu has a ton of talent on offense. and deslauriers is a monster at wide receiver. and those two freshmen are gonna be really good. but they just havent clicked yet for some reason. theyre on the cusp of turning the corner as a program but games like the michigan blowout show theres still work to be done.
 

INtheBLUE

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Hey Gman,
Wanted to know what you thought about the over 49.5 on the Central Michigan / Army game. Really like it, but as with any MAC involved play, wanted your opinion so I can decide how much to put on it.

Any opinion would be appreciated! Thanks.

:hail
 

ysg3

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just wanted to see if you noticed that the line is totally moving the wrong way in the ohio bowling green game. Opened at 23, all the money is coming in on BG and line is down to 20.5. This is a major angle i follow in capping. Do you have any opinion here?
 

gman2

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ysg3:

sorry i couldnt get back to you earlier. incidentally, it was because i was actually gone for the day as i made the 100 mile drive west to watch the bowling green/ohio game in person. had a very substantial chunk of money, easily the most of any gm this year, on bowling green at (-21) and felt the line move was a bit head scratching. couldnt make sense of it. i actual think that some people misinterpreted the weather a bit. it was a shit storm in ohio/ penn/ ny for most of the day with the rain and a lot of lines moved accordingly, but the bowling green/toledo area got all that rain on friday night, as its in the northwest section. the game conditions at bg were perfect. the bg passing game wasnt affected at all.

intheblue:

again, sorry. wasnt around to answer your question. the downpour in the army game certainly impacted that total in a big way. keep an eye out for cmu totals now. there will probably be a lot of value since theyve gone under a few gms in a row now but they can really put up points when their offense gets going. today, the rain limited them but they still got it done.
 

gman2

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kneifl:

tough break on the eastern michigan game. despite only scoring 3 points, their defense still did enough to put them in a position to cover. hated to see your bet get blown up on a long run down inside the 5 when toledo is more or less trying to run the clock out. thought the game was going to end 23-3.
 
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