Saturday ncaaf...1 play only
- Thread starter DR STRANGELOVE
- Start date
Illinois is 7-3 ATS and Northwestern is the opposite at 3-7. NW is 8-2 ATS in head to head last 10 seasons.
What a bunch of emotional issues this Northwestern team is going to be fighting this weekend. Coming off a huge win against Iowa, last "home game for Seniors", lost your star leader in every offensive category except receiving, the excitement of playing at Wrigley Field and it's rich history and sandwiched between a road trip to Wisconsin...........oh and playing a huge rivalry game with Illinois".
The Dan Persa QB injury for NW is a huge blow to the offense. You lose an unheard of 73.5% passer, that has thrown 15 tds and only 4 picks. Oh yeah, he's your leading rusher with 519 yards and leading scorer with 9 rushing TD's.
They will now be lead by 6'6 Freshman Evan Watkins that has a total of 7 passes in 4 games he has appeared in. He better get that big body moving as Northwestern is #117 in the country in sacks allowed and thats WITH a very mobile QB in Persa.......this could be ugly offensively if they can't establish a straight ole' fashion running game.
It's going to have to be the DEFENSE for NW to pull this out. Problem is they are #100 in pass defense yards, #43 in rush yards, 76 in Total Defense, but a respectable #36 in scoring defense. They are tied for #26 in Turnover Margin, however you would have to expect at least 2 picks to be thrown by the Freshman QB so this may be a different outcome on turnovers. In addition this group doesn't get much of a pass rush and are ranked #86 in sacks.
Illinois on OFFENSE: Illinois seems to be built for success at Wrigley with the wind issues. They are a great rushing team averaging 207 yards game and ranked #20. THey are #38 in scoring offense and although they are ranked #105 in passing it's a little skewed because they are so successful running the ball.
Freshman double threat QB Nathan Scheelhaase has had a very good year. 14 td passes against 7 picks (11 td-0 picks last 4 games). Hes had over 500 yards rushing and an additional 3 rushing TDs.
Junior RB Mikel LeShoure has led the rushing attack with 1050 yards and a total of 14 tds.
The kicking advantage goes to Illinois with the #17 ranked kicker vs. the #93 ranked kicker. One will add additional points and one may very well leave 3 to 9 points on the field.
Illinois Defensively is stout. Ranked #38 in total defense, #53 in pass defense, #40 in passing efficiency, #39 in rushing defense and #52 in scoring defense.
I have a different angle than most on the loss to Minnesota last week where the defense let them down. After playing a 3X OT game against Michigan the previous week I think that has to play a lot on the physical stamina the following week regardless if they are young men. Michigan had 676 of offense the previous week and that is like playing 2 games in 1 defensively.
My play is based on all of these factors and most importantly is when you have a QB that is as valuable to your team as Persa for all of the offense you produce it will have a huge impact asking a Freshman with 7 throws to produce.
What a bunch of emotional issues this Northwestern team is going to be fighting this weekend. Coming off a huge win against Iowa, last "home game for Seniors", lost your star leader in every offensive category except receiving, the excitement of playing at Wrigley Field and it's rich history and sandwiched between a road trip to Wisconsin...........oh and playing a huge rivalry game with Illinois".
The Dan Persa QB injury for NW is a huge blow to the offense. You lose an unheard of 73.5% passer, that has thrown 15 tds and only 4 picks. Oh yeah, he's your leading rusher with 519 yards and leading scorer with 9 rushing TD's.
They will now be lead by 6'6 Freshman Evan Watkins that has a total of 7 passes in 4 games he has appeared in. He better get that big body moving as Northwestern is #117 in the country in sacks allowed and thats WITH a very mobile QB in Persa.......this could be ugly offensively if they can't establish a straight ole' fashion running game.
It's going to have to be the DEFENSE for NW to pull this out. Problem is they are #100 in pass defense yards, #43 in rush yards, 76 in Total Defense, but a respectable #36 in scoring defense. They are tied for #26 in Turnover Margin, however you would have to expect at least 2 picks to be thrown by the Freshman QB so this may be a different outcome on turnovers. In addition this group doesn't get much of a pass rush and are ranked #86 in sacks.
Illinois on OFFENSE: Illinois seems to be built for success at Wrigley with the wind issues. They are a great rushing team averaging 207 yards game and ranked #20. THey are #38 in scoring offense and although they are ranked #105 in passing it's a little skewed because they are so successful running the ball.
Freshman double threat QB Nathan Scheelhaase has had a very good year. 14 td passes against 7 picks (11 td-0 picks last 4 games). Hes had over 500 yards rushing and an additional 3 rushing TDs.
Junior RB Mikel LeShoure has led the rushing attack with 1050 yards and a total of 14 tds.
The kicking advantage goes to Illinois with the #17 ranked kicker vs. the #93 ranked kicker. One will add additional points and one may very well leave 3 to 9 points on the field.
Illinois Defensively is stout. Ranked #38 in total defense, #53 in pass defense, #40 in passing efficiency, #39 in rushing defense and #52 in scoring defense.
I have a different angle than most on the loss to Minnesota last week where the defense let them down. After playing a 3X OT game against Michigan the previous week I think that has to play a lot on the physical stamina the following week regardless if they are young men. Michigan had 676 of offense the previous week and that is like playing 2 games in 1 defensively.
My play is based on all of these factors and most importantly is when you have a QB that is as valuable to your team as Persa for all of the offense you produce it will have a huge impact asking a Freshman with 7 throws to produce.
