Adding two plays:
ATLANTA -3.5 vs. GREEN BAY
SAN DIEGO +3 vs. SEATTLE
JACKSONVILLE +3 vs. MINNESOTA
New head coach as dog in first game has been a solid pre-season angle that applies here. Away dogs have been solid bets the first week of the pre-season and the Jags are especially attractive at this price getting a field goal. Jack Del Rio is described as a "player's coach" which might prove an advantage in this inaugural contest (Del Rio played four seasons for the Vikings). I expect Vikings will improve this season, but Jacksonville needs this game more to inspire some much needed confidence and enthusiasm for a rebuilding team. Minnesota's focus will be on establishing a running game, since Michael Bennett is expected to miss half the season with injury. That probably means more running plays then normal for Vikings in this contest -- generally good for the opposition. Vikings also have some kicking problems as that position is a huge question mark. They play is on Jacksonville, plus the points. PLAY JACKSONVILLE +3
KANSAS CITY -3.5 vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Going against two trends on the previous two match-ups -- which are new head coach as a dog (Erickson) and the Away Dog (San Francisco). I believe these angles are overcome by Dick Vermiel's pre-season intensity and several problems with the 49ers new offensive system. First, QB Garcia probably won't play (or will see only one series, at most) while the remainder of the rotation learns Erickson's new system. WR Owens is also expected to sit out. Chiefs will also play the first team at least one full quarter, while 49ers will be more cautious. Chiefs' defense was awful last season, which often means greater focus the following pre-season. Expect Chiefs to hold 49ers to low points in this contest. PLAY KANSAS CITY -3.5
SECOND HALF UNDER 20.5
I also like the UNDER in the second-half of this game. Brandon Doman and Ken Dorsey will play the entire second-half for the 49ers, while the Chiefs could get conservative on offense -- assuming they build a first-half lead (which I expect will happen). This is a relatively high point-total for the first pre-season game, especially since both teams will play plenty of rookies in the final half. PLAY 2H UNDER 20.5
WASHINGTON -2.5 vs. CAROLINA
Head coach Spurrier covered in 4 of 5 pre-season games last season and appears to take these pre-season game seriously. Given the complexity of his offense and plenty of depth at quarterback (assuming you like the Redskins rotation) everything points to another pre-season shootout where the Redskins will come out firing, hoping to inspire confidence on offense. Carolina's Fox has only covered in a third of his pre-season games and comes in with many question marks -- particularly on offense. Carolina's camp has largely been a disaster, with a number of injuries, three unproven QBs behind the ancient, incompetent Rodney Peete. I like the Redskins to open up with a road win here. PLAY WASHINGTON -2.5
BALTIMORE -2.5 vs. BUFFALO
Another situation where one coach takes the pre-season much more seriously than the other. Baltimore's Billick has won 73 percent of his pre-season games compared to just a third for Bill's Williams. Raven's offense in particular has something to prove in this game as QB Redman has been under fire for not playing well in camp. That could be a big motivator for Billick to play Redman an extended period and for him to open up the offense more than usual for a first game. Indeed, the QB position is a major question mark for the Ravens (it's wide open at this point) so we can expect to see the Ravens doing some extra passing which should give them an edge versus the more conservative Bills (in pre-season). Williams by nature hasn't shown much in pre-season games, and there's nothing to indicate that will change this year, or in this game. So, we get a more motivated Raven's offense and a superior Ravens defense as s small favorite. Laying -2.5 seems like a reasonable number, so we'll go with the favored Ravens at home. PLAY BALTIMORE -2.5
GREEN BAY / ATLANTA SECOND-HALF UNDER 21
This is a ridiculous advance number (posted at Olympic) which is based on public perceptions of both teams as high-powered offenses. Trouble is -- neither team will have its offensive starters in by the time the second half rolls around. Average 2H total is about 17.5 so it makes absolutely no sense to see the Falcons and Packers posted at 21 (i.e. it takes 3+ TDs to lose the bet). Great value here with the UNDER as neither coach will take many chances in this game -- especially the Packers who play five pre-season games and will open up at home next week. Packers also had no chance to evaluate rookies in last week's cancelled game, which means they will get plenty of time in this contest -- usually a good omen for the UNDER. PLAY 2H UNDER 21
SAN DIEGO / SEATTLE UNDER 36
Neither coach cares much about wining in pre-season, and I expect that attitude to carry over into this game -- especially on offfense. Marty Shottenheimer, in particular, has been awful over the years in games like this (Kansas City and Washington), which negates my temptation to play the Chargers plus the points. Seattle will play two complete nobodies at QB most of the game (competing starters Dilfer is injured and Haseelback will play only one series). This tells me that Holmgren wants to go through the motions and probably won't put up many points. Meanwhile, Shottenheimer's conservatism in pre-season is legendary. The Chargers aren't helped by RB Tomlinson being out for this game. This total should probably be closer to 33 based on the philosophy of the head coaches and injuries to both teams. PLAY UNDER 36
CINCINNATI +4 vs. NY JETS
New head coaches as dogs in their first game have been a solid pre-season angle that applies here in this contest. Away dogs have also traditionally been solid bets the first week of the pre-season (Bengals). New Cincy coach Marvin Lewis may have been influenced by his two prot?g?'s -- Billick and Spurrier, both of whom like to win in pre-season. Bengals will also be eager to start a new era with a win, hoping to inspire some team confidence. This is simply too many points (the line actually opened at +5) particularly versus a team that should have some motivation to win. For the Jets coming off a puzzling performance in Japan last week, and with an extra pre-season game to deal with, this could not be a more meaningless game. PLAY CINCINNATI +4
ATLANTA -3.5 vs. GREEN BAY
SAN DIEGO +3 vs. SEATTLE
JACKSONVILLE +3 vs. MINNESOTA
New head coach as dog in first game has been a solid pre-season angle that applies here. Away dogs have been solid bets the first week of the pre-season and the Jags are especially attractive at this price getting a field goal. Jack Del Rio is described as a "player's coach" which might prove an advantage in this inaugural contest (Del Rio played four seasons for the Vikings). I expect Vikings will improve this season, but Jacksonville needs this game more to inspire some much needed confidence and enthusiasm for a rebuilding team. Minnesota's focus will be on establishing a running game, since Michael Bennett is expected to miss half the season with injury. That probably means more running plays then normal for Vikings in this contest -- generally good for the opposition. Vikings also have some kicking problems as that position is a huge question mark. They play is on Jacksonville, plus the points. PLAY JACKSONVILLE +3
KANSAS CITY -3.5 vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Going against two trends on the previous two match-ups -- which are new head coach as a dog (Erickson) and the Away Dog (San Francisco). I believe these angles are overcome by Dick Vermiel's pre-season intensity and several problems with the 49ers new offensive system. First, QB Garcia probably won't play (or will see only one series, at most) while the remainder of the rotation learns Erickson's new system. WR Owens is also expected to sit out. Chiefs will also play the first team at least one full quarter, while 49ers will be more cautious. Chiefs' defense was awful last season, which often means greater focus the following pre-season. Expect Chiefs to hold 49ers to low points in this contest. PLAY KANSAS CITY -3.5
SECOND HALF UNDER 20.5
I also like the UNDER in the second-half of this game. Brandon Doman and Ken Dorsey will play the entire second-half for the 49ers, while the Chiefs could get conservative on offense -- assuming they build a first-half lead (which I expect will happen). This is a relatively high point-total for the first pre-season game, especially since both teams will play plenty of rookies in the final half. PLAY 2H UNDER 20.5
WASHINGTON -2.5 vs. CAROLINA
Head coach Spurrier covered in 4 of 5 pre-season games last season and appears to take these pre-season game seriously. Given the complexity of his offense and plenty of depth at quarterback (assuming you like the Redskins rotation) everything points to another pre-season shootout where the Redskins will come out firing, hoping to inspire confidence on offense. Carolina's Fox has only covered in a third of his pre-season games and comes in with many question marks -- particularly on offense. Carolina's camp has largely been a disaster, with a number of injuries, three unproven QBs behind the ancient, incompetent Rodney Peete. I like the Redskins to open up with a road win here. PLAY WASHINGTON -2.5
BALTIMORE -2.5 vs. BUFFALO
Another situation where one coach takes the pre-season much more seriously than the other. Baltimore's Billick has won 73 percent of his pre-season games compared to just a third for Bill's Williams. Raven's offense in particular has something to prove in this game as QB Redman has been under fire for not playing well in camp. That could be a big motivator for Billick to play Redman an extended period and for him to open up the offense more than usual for a first game. Indeed, the QB position is a major question mark for the Ravens (it's wide open at this point) so we can expect to see the Ravens doing some extra passing which should give them an edge versus the more conservative Bills (in pre-season). Williams by nature hasn't shown much in pre-season games, and there's nothing to indicate that will change this year, or in this game. So, we get a more motivated Raven's offense and a superior Ravens defense as s small favorite. Laying -2.5 seems like a reasonable number, so we'll go with the favored Ravens at home. PLAY BALTIMORE -2.5
GREEN BAY / ATLANTA SECOND-HALF UNDER 21
This is a ridiculous advance number (posted at Olympic) which is based on public perceptions of both teams as high-powered offenses. Trouble is -- neither team will have its offensive starters in by the time the second half rolls around. Average 2H total is about 17.5 so it makes absolutely no sense to see the Falcons and Packers posted at 21 (i.e. it takes 3+ TDs to lose the bet). Great value here with the UNDER as neither coach will take many chances in this game -- especially the Packers who play five pre-season games and will open up at home next week. Packers also had no chance to evaluate rookies in last week's cancelled game, which means they will get plenty of time in this contest -- usually a good omen for the UNDER. PLAY 2H UNDER 21
SAN DIEGO / SEATTLE UNDER 36
Neither coach cares much about wining in pre-season, and I expect that attitude to carry over into this game -- especially on offfense. Marty Shottenheimer, in particular, has been awful over the years in games like this (Kansas City and Washington), which negates my temptation to play the Chargers plus the points. Seattle will play two complete nobodies at QB most of the game (competing starters Dilfer is injured and Haseelback will play only one series). This tells me that Holmgren wants to go through the motions and probably won't put up many points. Meanwhile, Shottenheimer's conservatism in pre-season is legendary. The Chargers aren't helped by RB Tomlinson being out for this game. This total should probably be closer to 33 based on the philosophy of the head coaches and injuries to both teams. PLAY UNDER 36
CINCINNATI +4 vs. NY JETS
New head coaches as dogs in their first game have been a solid pre-season angle that applies here in this contest. Away dogs have also traditionally been solid bets the first week of the pre-season (Bengals). New Cincy coach Marvin Lewis may have been influenced by his two prot?g?'s -- Billick and Spurrier, both of whom like to win in pre-season. Bengals will also be eager to start a new era with a win, hoping to inspire some team confidence. This is simply too many points (the line actually opened at +5) particularly versus a team that should have some motivation to win. For the Jets coming off a puzzling performance in Japan last week, and with an extra pre-season game to deal with, this could not be a more meaningless game. PLAY CINCINNATI +4
