Saturday On The College Hardcourt

[Tiger]

Yesterday: 2-4
YTD: 97-66

Saturday
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1)Cincinnati(-2)

Playing this one early as the line has been very active already.

This game means nothing to West Virginia...............They are locked in as the #3 seed in the Big East Tournament. BUT, Cincinnati needs a win badly at 18-11 to impress the NCAA committee.

The Mountaineers are coming off 4 straight "high energy" games..........home loss by 6 pts to UConn, 2 pt loss at syracuse, 4 pt home win over Louisville and the emotional 5 pt win last Monday night on Seniors night over Pitt. They must be drained, and now have a game that really doesn't matter to them at all. Hmmmmm.

They are 20-8 YTD, but only 5-3 on the road. They have actually lost 3 of their last 4 conference road games. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Cinci is 18-11 YTD, but a solid 13-4 S/U at home and they have won 4 of their last 5 conference home games, with the loss by 2 points to then #2 Villanova.

The filtered stats show even numbers in OFG% but some pretty good advantages for the Bearcats elsewhere................

DFG%
WV road.......44.4%
Cinci home.....39.2%


FThrows
WV road...........70.0%
Cinci home.......76.6%

Boards
WV road.......23.0
Cinci home......35.6


Everything pointing to Cincinnati in this one and the number is very low.


Good luck out there today,
Tiger


Will post em as I play em again today.

 

[Keith 1]

good luck Tiger (always catches my eye when you go with a favorite).

 

[Tiger]

2)Duquesne(+13.5)

Duquesne is 3-0 YTD as DD home dog, and it is the last home game for their 4 seniors.

St.Joes is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Filtered stats show only small advantages for St.Joes in most areas, but Duquesne actually has better numbers on the boards.

Just too many points given the circumstances.

 

[The Mover]

Like the Duquesne game had a check mark next to them, thought it would open @ + 14-15 line has dropped to 13 @ some places Gl

 

[Tiger]

3) Texas Tech(-2)

Texas A&M is coming off that emotional, last second win over Texas on Wednesday night and could be very flat for this one. Tech meanwhile is playing their final home game and should be very high and very ready to play.

A & M is 19-7 YTD, but only 3-5 on the road.
Tech is 14-15 YTD, but 12-3 at home.

The filtered stats show several advantages for the home side.......................

OFG%
A&M road.......45.0%
Tech home.....47.7%

O3FG%
A&M road......35.5%
Tech home....40.6%...Wow

FThrows
A&M road.........63.9%
Tech home.......70.1%

DFG%
A&M road........46.7%
Tech home......39.7%...Wow again


Again, a very low number to lay on a pretty good home team that would seem to have the emotional edge as well.

 

[Tiger]

Thanks for checking in Keith and Mover. Always appreciate it!!

4) Auburn(+2.5)

A couple of bottom feeders in the SEC, but if you look closer, we can see some big differences.

South Carolina is 14-14 YTD, but just 4-7 on the road.
Auburn is 12-14 YTD, but 11-4 at home.

S.C. is 0-4 both S/U and ATS in their last 4, including 3 straight heartbreaking losses by 1, 1 and 3 points. Their emotional gas tank could be pretty empty today.


Auburn has won 2 of their last 3 and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4.

The filtered stats are even on offence, but the Tigers show an advantage on the boards and ..............................

DFG%
SC road.........47.0%
Aub home.....39.7%


A live home dog in this one.

 

[Keith 1]

good luck Tiger. Riding along with you.

 

[Tiger]

Thanks Keith. Hope the ride is a smooth one today.

5)Kansas State(+5)

Yes, Kansas is a very good team this year. I won't bore you with their list of accomplishments, although the Longhorns exposed them somewhat last weekend.

But Kansas State, although only 15-11 YTD, is a sparkling 13-3 S/U at home. They also are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, peaking at the right time of the year. They have been a home dog twice this year and are 2-0 ATS......winning one of them outright and losing the other to Texas by 1 point.

The filtered stats are a wash, but I found it interesting that the Wildcats Def #'s at home are better than the Jayhawk's Def #'s on the road.

And I'll say it again..............IMO the Big 12 is the toughest conference in the nation to lay points on the road.

 

[Tiger]

1-1 on finals so far with Texas Tech trailing badly at the half as well. Still capping hard though...................

6) Wisconsin Green Bay (+9)

WGB is 15-15 YTD, but they have won their last 2 games, and 4 of their last 6. They are 6-3 ATS in the last 9.

Butler is 18-11 YTD, but just 3-3 down the stretch in their last 6 games. They also have a tendency to play very close games. Four of their last nine games have gone to overtime, and 3 of the other 5 games were decided by 8 points or less. So that's basically 7 of their last 9 games came down to the final minute or so, a key factor when they are a 9 pt favourite in this one.

The last 4 times WGBay has been a dog by 9 or more pts, they are 4-0 ATS, including 2 outright wins and 2 overtime losses...............this is a role they are very good at playing.

The last 6 times Butler has been a favourite of 9 or more pts, they are 2-4 ATS.

The stats show WGB has advantages on the boards and on defence and when that is mixed with a 9 point dog, it's a play.

 

[Tiger]

Doesn't look like my day at all today. Will try to change my luck by posting my last 3 picks without the writeups............................

7)Columbia(+7)
8)USC(+8)
9)Marshall (+14.5)

 

[Dr Feelgood]

GL Tiger...