07:10 PM [904] TOTAL u7.5 -120 (PHI PHILLIES vrs ATL BRAVES) ( J HELLICKSON -R / J TEHERAN -R )
08:40 PM [911] CIN REDS -115 ( A DESCLAFANI -R / C FRIEDRICH -L )
09:10 PM [914] LA DODGERS -1.5 -105 ( B SHIPLEY -R / S KAZMIR -L )
07:10 PM [922] CLE INDIANS -1.5 +110 ( D OVERTON -L / J TOMLIN -R )
1 unit bet pays 13 ....betdsi line...... dang again! last night's 6 teamer lost by one leg!
MLB parlays: 11-120, -25.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Toronto Blue Jays are 11-1 in Happ?s last 12 home starts.
J.A. Happ - 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Happ has been kinda killing it over his last 10 starts (3.43 ERA, 3.77 FIP/3.82 xFIP, 8.50 K/9, 2.39 BB/9) and he just keeps flying high as he shut down the Mariners. Sure, those four walks aren't encouraging and he needs his command to be top notch to get by since his stuff just isn't all that good, but he's locked in right now and it would be silly to deny him those starts on your squad at this point.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto southpaw J.A. Happ is having the best month of his career, posting an incredible 1.48 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 1.99 FIP and 2.82 xFIP in 24.1 innings of work. Those results are further supported by a 32.6% K% (11.47 K/9), a 6.3% BB% (2.22 BB/9), a 26.3% K-BB% and a 0.37 HR/9 rate. Happ has also pitched well at home this season where he owns a 3.22 ERA with a 3.60 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP (22.2% K%; 7.0% BB%).
After enjoying a phenomenal second half with the Pirates last season under the tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage, Happ has continued those gains in 2016 despite facing American League bats (and a designated hitter). The 33-year-old posted decent but unspectacular numbers in the first three months of this season (3.70 ERA & 86 ERA- and 104 FIP-), but he has recently returned to what made him so successful in Pittsburgh.
In four starts in July against Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland and Seattle, Happ has posted a 1.48 ERA and a1.99 FIP in 24.1 innings. His strikeout rate has sky-rocketed in those starts (32.6% K%), which is impressive in light of his career 19.8% strikeout rate. So, what has changed for the veteran hurler? In short, he has relied more on his four-seamer, which he threw 72% of the time in Pittsburgh at the insistence of pitching coach Ray Searage.
According to Baseball Prospectus, of the 85 starting pitchers to throw a minimum of 500 four-seamers in 2016, only two have a higher swinging strike rate than Happ on that pitch. Equally important, Happ is posting contact and strikeout rates similar to those he garnered in the second half of 2015 in Pittsburgh.
Ready to be blown away? If you take Happ's 11 starts in Pittsburgh and combine them with his four starts this month, you get the following stat line: 87.2 IP, 1.75 ERA, 29.1% K%. Wow! Meanwhile, Baltimore right-hander Yovani Gallardo toes the rubber with a 5.37 ERA and 1.62 WHIP this season, including a 6.94 ERA and 1.74 WHIP on the road. Gallardo also owns a 5.22 FIP and a 5.65 xFIP away from home, together with a really bad 3.1 K-BB%. The 30-year-old has also posted a 5.52 FIP and a 5.87 xFIP in July, together with a 2.4% K-BB%.
With Toronto standing at 17-5 in Happ's last 22 starts, including 11-1 in his last 12 home starts and 5-0 in his last five starts in game 2 of a series, take the Blue Jays and invest with confidence.
It's about time that we had a serious talk about Jake Arrieta who let owners down last start with a 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. It's not like he's doing poorly this year - a 2.76 ERA with FIP/xFIP getting his back, a 9.54 K/9 and a 1.08 WHIP - but there are signs of concern here and there. The biggest is that he's not throwing his glorious Slutter nearly as much, favoring his Sinker a ton more than normal. The breaking pitch is getting fewer whiffs, coming in near two mph slower than last season, and not getting the same aggressive break that it used to. The numbers actually look similar to when he was going through "fatigue" last year during the playoffs, and there is a part of me that questions if last year's effort stretched him out too far. I wouldn't do anything rash because of it, but I wonder if he'll ever be that studly of pitcher ever again.
Regression is a funny thing. To be clear, this is regression in the statistical sense where something out of the player's control regresses to the mean. It's unfortunate regression has morphed into meaning "play worse" since that clouds the message when regression is discussed in the practical sense.
Jake Arrieta's 2015 Cy Young campaign was buoyed by an eight percent home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB), well below the league average. It's generally accepted that all hurlers will cluster around an 11 percent mark. If you're below, you likely incurred some good luck, tempered by the park factor of your home park.
This season, through June 22, Arrieta allowed just three homers on a five percent HR/FB. Since then, he has surrendered five long balls on the heels of a 19 percent HR/FB clip, raising his seasonal level to 9 percent HR/FB. There's nothing wrong with Arrieta; he's simply the victim of some regression with respect to home run rate.
Well, Arrieta's walk rate is up from last season, but if his 2016 homers allowed were more evenly distributed over the past four months, no one would be concerned. The bottom line is if you're in a seasonal league with Arrieta as your ace, there's nothing to worry about. This doesn't guarantee a stellar stretch run, only that there's nothing in the numbers to lose sleep over.
Oakland @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND -1? +116 over Oakland
Josh Tomlin is one of those rare finesse right-handers that attempts to keep hitters off balance the entire game. It often works. Tomlin also brings his elite control, as evidenced by his 12 walks in 114 innings this season. To score on Tomlin, the A?s are going to have to string together some hits or take Tomlin deep. Should Tomlin give up some runs, it isn?t likely to matter because the Indians figure to tee off on Dillon Overton and that?s what this wager is based on.
There is a relatively new metric in baseball which measures the speed of balls being hit out of the park. Another term being used is ?exit velocity?. Along with that metric are other metrics that include average distance of balls in play, average speed of balls in play, average speed of grounders and average speed of line-drives. It?s actually a very significant metric because it reveals the pitchers that get squared up on often. There are a bunch of relievers that are near or at the top of the list of pitchers that are getting squared up on often but we?re not interested in relievers. Some of the names of the starters that are getting whacked are Kyle Lohse, Paul Clemens, Erik Johnson, Joe Kelly, Phil Hughes, Adam Morgan, John Danks and Justin Nicolino among others. What those pitchers have in common is that they are either used to riding buses or have been cut, traded or benched more than once.
At the top of the list of starters getting rocked is Dillon Overton. His average distance of balls in play is 270 feet. That is the highest mark among starters and it's a remarkable number. All of Dillon?s other metrics in this ?new-found? group of metrics are weak and this is precisely the park and team that figures to expose that in a big way. Dillon?s groundball/fly-ball split is 22%/55%. His hr/f rate is 19%. He has a WHIP of 1.93 so when someone goes deep on him, there is very likely going to be men on base. Dillon is in because Rich Hill is out. He?s pitched all of his games thus far at pitcher?s parks with two games at home and one on the road at the Big A in Anaheim. After those three starts, his ERA is 8.40 with an oppBA of .358. He?ll now make his first start at a hitter?s park and we can?t imagine for a second that it?s going to turn out well for this batting practice machine.
----
Pomeranz is not in Fenway tonight, he is back in a comfy West Coast ballpark where his style works well (he can get some lazy fly ball outs), and I believe the best way to take advantage is #929 Red Sox/Angels First Half Under (9:05 Eastern), with 4.5 out there in the early trading.
My focus goes to the lefty starters early because neither side has much experience against them, and some of the experience there is has not been good at all (Trout/Pujols are 2-20 vs. Pomeranz with six strikeouts), while Santiago on the hill will bring a night off for David Ortiz. But I also do not like these bullpens right now, despite the fact that they are fresh ? the Red Sox are down Uehara/Kimbrell, while the Angel assortment is #28 in WAR. So the play is for the starters to make a couple of good passes through the lineups, and then I won?t have to care the rest of the way.
Angels +120
The last time Hector Santiago faced Boston was at Fenway Park on July 2. The Angels won, 21-2. Now the Angels are home, where they have won seven of the last eight times, and have Santiago on the mound. Yet they opened underdogs to the Red Sox and Drew Pomeranz.
Wrong favorite.
Pomeranz has turned the corner this season helped by developing a knuckle-curve ball. But Pomerantz already has exceeded his career-high in innings pitched for a season and has found it difficult since coming to Boston giving up seven earned runs on 12 hits - including three homers - and four walks during his two Red Sox starts spanning nine innings. That translates to a 7.00 Boston ERA. Pomeranz is at 111 innings pitched. He had never exceeded 97 innings in a season entering this year.
Santiago, by contrast, is pitching his best ball going 6-0 with a 2.40 ERA in his last eight starts. The lefty has a 1.48 ERA this month. He has a 2.97 lifetime ERA against the Red Sox in seven appearances, including six starts.
Boston's offense is much less deadly on the road where its OPS going into this series was .785 compared to .862 at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are 16-35 the last 51 times they've gone against a southpaw on the road, including losing the last three as road chalk to a lefty starter.
The Red Sox halted a four-game losing streak by beating the Angels Friday night. You almost need an asterisk, though, by that game since the Angels were forced to trot Tim Lincecum to the mound again. Prior to last night, the Angels had won seven in a row at Angels Stadium and also had won five in a row at home versus Boston.
The Red Sox could manage only one run against a washed-up Jered Weaver and four Angels relievers during the first game of this series on Thursday. Now they get Santiago not Lincecum.
Scott Kazmir's ranking may also look oddly high, but this is another case of a favorable opponent driving the score. On the road versus southpaws, the Arizona Diamondbacks carry a league average weighted on base average (wOBA) along with a whopping 27 percent strikeout rate under those conditions, the second highest mark in the league. This feeds right into the Los Angeles Dodgers lefty's impressive 9.6 K/9. In addition, the Snakes are among the least patient squad in the league which helps ease the risk that sometimes Kazmir struggles with control.
Arizona Diamondbacks are:
2-10 in their last 12 road games.
6-20 in their last 26 games overall.
7-20 in their last 27 games at Dodger Stadium.
Arizona @ LOS ANGELES
Arizona +200 over LOS ANGELES
Scott Kazmir is 9-3 after 20 starts to go along with 117 K?s in 110 innings. We?ve said it before and we?ll say it again that Scott Kazmir is on the verge of some blowupsbecause he gets progressively worse after the first time through the order. He has a xERA of 4.88 the second time through and a 5.21 the third time through. Kazmir?s 41%/21%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is exactly the type of profile that gets blown up from time to time because of the number of fly-balls surrendered. That puts him at the mercy of hr/f %. Kazmir?s hr/f rate is 15%, which in turn makes Kazmir?s profile a very risky one to be spotting a price like this with. Kazmir has been saved by a friendly strand rate of 79% over his past six starts. Because we can't bet on that happening again, neither can we expect anything near a 3-ERA again over his next six starts. Rising xERA trend combined with a BIG second half skills erosion last year put even a 4.00 ERA at risk. He'll struggle to return a profit the rest of the way. With a takeback like this, we?re more than willing to gamble that Kazmir isn?t as sharp today.
Braden Shipley debuted last week against the Brewers in Milwaukee and his pitching line looks pretty ugly. Shipley walked four and struck out four in 5.1 innings after allowing six runs. He left with an ERA of 10.80 but it?s not as bad as it seems. Five of the six runs came via the home-run. Shipley gave up solo shots in the first and third innings, but managed to battle his way into the bottom of the sixth with the score tied 3-3. A three-run shot in the sixth ended his night but that was in Milwaukee and four of the eight hits he surrendered were either a seeing eye-single or bloop single. Results notwithstanding, Shipley was actually quite impressive with his poise, mound presence and pitch selection. He?s a former first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has three average to above average offerings. His sinking 91-96 mph fastball looked good versus the Brewers. Shipley works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. We never put a lot of weight on one outing but this market is and that?s a mistake. Shipley may indeed get whacked again but this kid is high on our radar for the future because we love his arsenal and quiet confidence. He?s going to be a good one but nobody knows it yet. We?re investing now.
Hottest pitcher: Hector Santiago (9-4, 4.28 ERA)
The Red Sox snapped a maddening four-game losing streak that saw them lose the last three by one run apiece, but they remain in third place in the AL East, clinging to the second wild card. They'll now run into one of the hottest pitchers in baseball since Santiago hasn't dropped a decision since June 10, a span of eight straight outings. The Angels have won seven of those games outright and have seen Santiago surrender three runs of fewer in seven of those starts. Included in this run is a 21-2 win at Fenway Park where Santiago allowed one unearned run over six innings on July 2. Teams have been scouting him heavily as a potential trade target, so this could be one last showcase of his abilities against a top contender.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (16-1 last 17)
The greatest streak since Orel Hershiser?s consecutive scoreless innings run ended finally fell yesterday as the Orioles finally played a game where the posted total was surpassed. Since the Saturday prior to the All-Star break, Baltimore games had gone UNDER an incredible 16 straight times despite continuing to lead all of MLB in home runs. Sometimes Baltimore?s pitching was lights out and other times, its bats were asleep, which explains a 9-7 mark through the run. The Birds won four straight, then lost four in a row when outscored 19-4, averaging a run per game. The O?s then won five consecutive games before their current skid that reached four games despite them scoring five times, matching their largest output since July 6. Yovani Gallardo (3-2, 5.37) takes the ball for Baltimore and has pitched in four straight UNDER games. Toronto counters with J.A. Happ (13-3, 3.27), who has won seven consecutive decisions and has pitched in shutouts in two of his last three outings. If the Blue Jays win, they?ll grab the lead in the AL East.
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (4-1-1 last six games; 19-9-1 last 29)
There have been at least nine runs scored in six straight games involving Arizona, which squandered a 7-3 lead after stunning L.A. with a seven-run seventh inning on Friday. The Dodgers won 9-7 to pull one game behind the slumping Giants and send Scott Kazmir (9-3, 4.35) to the mound to try and hand the Snakes their 10th loss in 12 games. The Diamondbacks are struggling despite Yasmany Tomas sporting a six-game hitting streak where he's gone 11-for-24 with four homers and 10 RBI. Rookie Braden Shipley (0-1, 10.13) will make his second career start after being lit up at Milwaukee in a 7-2 defeat that represents the lone UNDER in the streak mentioned above. The OVER is just 4-6 in Dodgers/D'Backs games to date.
08:40 PM [911] CIN REDS -115 ( A DESCLAFANI -R / C FRIEDRICH -L )
09:10 PM [914] LA DODGERS -1.5 -105 ( B SHIPLEY -R / S KAZMIR -L )
07:10 PM [922] CLE INDIANS -1.5 +110 ( D OVERTON -L / J TOMLIN -R )
1 unit bet pays 13 ....betdsi line...... dang again! last night's 6 teamer lost by one leg!
MLB parlays: 11-120, -25.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Toronto Blue Jays are 11-1 in Happ?s last 12 home starts.
J.A. Happ - 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Happ has been kinda killing it over his last 10 starts (3.43 ERA, 3.77 FIP/3.82 xFIP, 8.50 K/9, 2.39 BB/9) and he just keeps flying high as he shut down the Mariners. Sure, those four walks aren't encouraging and he needs his command to be top notch to get by since his stuff just isn't all that good, but he's locked in right now and it would be silly to deny him those starts on your squad at this point.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto southpaw J.A. Happ is having the best month of his career, posting an incredible 1.48 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 1.99 FIP and 2.82 xFIP in 24.1 innings of work. Those results are further supported by a 32.6% K% (11.47 K/9), a 6.3% BB% (2.22 BB/9), a 26.3% K-BB% and a 0.37 HR/9 rate. Happ has also pitched well at home this season where he owns a 3.22 ERA with a 3.60 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP (22.2% K%; 7.0% BB%).
After enjoying a phenomenal second half with the Pirates last season under the tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage, Happ has continued those gains in 2016 despite facing American League bats (and a designated hitter). The 33-year-old posted decent but unspectacular numbers in the first three months of this season (3.70 ERA & 86 ERA- and 104 FIP-), but he has recently returned to what made him so successful in Pittsburgh.
In four starts in July against Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland and Seattle, Happ has posted a 1.48 ERA and a1.99 FIP in 24.1 innings. His strikeout rate has sky-rocketed in those starts (32.6% K%), which is impressive in light of his career 19.8% strikeout rate. So, what has changed for the veteran hurler? In short, he has relied more on his four-seamer, which he threw 72% of the time in Pittsburgh at the insistence of pitching coach Ray Searage.
According to Baseball Prospectus, of the 85 starting pitchers to throw a minimum of 500 four-seamers in 2016, only two have a higher swinging strike rate than Happ on that pitch. Equally important, Happ is posting contact and strikeout rates similar to those he garnered in the second half of 2015 in Pittsburgh.
Ready to be blown away? If you take Happ's 11 starts in Pittsburgh and combine them with his four starts this month, you get the following stat line: 87.2 IP, 1.75 ERA, 29.1% K%. Wow! Meanwhile, Baltimore right-hander Yovani Gallardo toes the rubber with a 5.37 ERA and 1.62 WHIP this season, including a 6.94 ERA and 1.74 WHIP on the road. Gallardo also owns a 5.22 FIP and a 5.65 xFIP away from home, together with a really bad 3.1 K-BB%. The 30-year-old has also posted a 5.52 FIP and a 5.87 xFIP in July, together with a 2.4% K-BB%.
With Toronto standing at 17-5 in Happ's last 22 starts, including 11-1 in his last 12 home starts and 5-0 in his last five starts in game 2 of a series, take the Blue Jays and invest with confidence.
It's about time that we had a serious talk about Jake Arrieta who let owners down last start with a 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. It's not like he's doing poorly this year - a 2.76 ERA with FIP/xFIP getting his back, a 9.54 K/9 and a 1.08 WHIP - but there are signs of concern here and there. The biggest is that he's not throwing his glorious Slutter nearly as much, favoring his Sinker a ton more than normal. The breaking pitch is getting fewer whiffs, coming in near two mph slower than last season, and not getting the same aggressive break that it used to. The numbers actually look similar to when he was going through "fatigue" last year during the playoffs, and there is a part of me that questions if last year's effort stretched him out too far. I wouldn't do anything rash because of it, but I wonder if he'll ever be that studly of pitcher ever again.
Regression is a funny thing. To be clear, this is regression in the statistical sense where something out of the player's control regresses to the mean. It's unfortunate regression has morphed into meaning "play worse" since that clouds the message when regression is discussed in the practical sense.
Jake Arrieta's 2015 Cy Young campaign was buoyed by an eight percent home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB), well below the league average. It's generally accepted that all hurlers will cluster around an 11 percent mark. If you're below, you likely incurred some good luck, tempered by the park factor of your home park.
This season, through June 22, Arrieta allowed just three homers on a five percent HR/FB. Since then, he has surrendered five long balls on the heels of a 19 percent HR/FB clip, raising his seasonal level to 9 percent HR/FB. There's nothing wrong with Arrieta; he's simply the victim of some regression with respect to home run rate.
Well, Arrieta's walk rate is up from last season, but if his 2016 homers allowed were more evenly distributed over the past four months, no one would be concerned. The bottom line is if you're in a seasonal league with Arrieta as your ace, there's nothing to worry about. This doesn't guarantee a stellar stretch run, only that there's nothing in the numbers to lose sleep over.
Oakland @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND -1? +116 over Oakland
Josh Tomlin is one of those rare finesse right-handers that attempts to keep hitters off balance the entire game. It often works. Tomlin also brings his elite control, as evidenced by his 12 walks in 114 innings this season. To score on Tomlin, the A?s are going to have to string together some hits or take Tomlin deep. Should Tomlin give up some runs, it isn?t likely to matter because the Indians figure to tee off on Dillon Overton and that?s what this wager is based on.
There is a relatively new metric in baseball which measures the speed of balls being hit out of the park. Another term being used is ?exit velocity?. Along with that metric are other metrics that include average distance of balls in play, average speed of balls in play, average speed of grounders and average speed of line-drives. It?s actually a very significant metric because it reveals the pitchers that get squared up on often. There are a bunch of relievers that are near or at the top of the list of pitchers that are getting squared up on often but we?re not interested in relievers. Some of the names of the starters that are getting whacked are Kyle Lohse, Paul Clemens, Erik Johnson, Joe Kelly, Phil Hughes, Adam Morgan, John Danks and Justin Nicolino among others. What those pitchers have in common is that they are either used to riding buses or have been cut, traded or benched more than once.
At the top of the list of starters getting rocked is Dillon Overton. His average distance of balls in play is 270 feet. That is the highest mark among starters and it's a remarkable number. All of Dillon?s other metrics in this ?new-found? group of metrics are weak and this is precisely the park and team that figures to expose that in a big way. Dillon?s groundball/fly-ball split is 22%/55%. His hr/f rate is 19%. He has a WHIP of 1.93 so when someone goes deep on him, there is very likely going to be men on base. Dillon is in because Rich Hill is out. He?s pitched all of his games thus far at pitcher?s parks with two games at home and one on the road at the Big A in Anaheim. After those three starts, his ERA is 8.40 with an oppBA of .358. He?ll now make his first start at a hitter?s park and we can?t imagine for a second that it?s going to turn out well for this batting practice machine.
----
Pomeranz is not in Fenway tonight, he is back in a comfy West Coast ballpark where his style works well (he can get some lazy fly ball outs), and I believe the best way to take advantage is #929 Red Sox/Angels First Half Under (9:05 Eastern), with 4.5 out there in the early trading.
My focus goes to the lefty starters early because neither side has much experience against them, and some of the experience there is has not been good at all (Trout/Pujols are 2-20 vs. Pomeranz with six strikeouts), while Santiago on the hill will bring a night off for David Ortiz. But I also do not like these bullpens right now, despite the fact that they are fresh ? the Red Sox are down Uehara/Kimbrell, while the Angel assortment is #28 in WAR. So the play is for the starters to make a couple of good passes through the lineups, and then I won?t have to care the rest of the way.
Angels +120
The last time Hector Santiago faced Boston was at Fenway Park on July 2. The Angels won, 21-2. Now the Angels are home, where they have won seven of the last eight times, and have Santiago on the mound. Yet they opened underdogs to the Red Sox and Drew Pomeranz.
Wrong favorite.
Pomeranz has turned the corner this season helped by developing a knuckle-curve ball. But Pomerantz already has exceeded his career-high in innings pitched for a season and has found it difficult since coming to Boston giving up seven earned runs on 12 hits - including three homers - and four walks during his two Red Sox starts spanning nine innings. That translates to a 7.00 Boston ERA. Pomeranz is at 111 innings pitched. He had never exceeded 97 innings in a season entering this year.
Santiago, by contrast, is pitching his best ball going 6-0 with a 2.40 ERA in his last eight starts. The lefty has a 1.48 ERA this month. He has a 2.97 lifetime ERA against the Red Sox in seven appearances, including six starts.
Boston's offense is much less deadly on the road where its OPS going into this series was .785 compared to .862 at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are 16-35 the last 51 times they've gone against a southpaw on the road, including losing the last three as road chalk to a lefty starter.
The Red Sox halted a four-game losing streak by beating the Angels Friday night. You almost need an asterisk, though, by that game since the Angels were forced to trot Tim Lincecum to the mound again. Prior to last night, the Angels had won seven in a row at Angels Stadium and also had won five in a row at home versus Boston.
The Red Sox could manage only one run against a washed-up Jered Weaver and four Angels relievers during the first game of this series on Thursday. Now they get Santiago not Lincecum.
Scott Kazmir's ranking may also look oddly high, but this is another case of a favorable opponent driving the score. On the road versus southpaws, the Arizona Diamondbacks carry a league average weighted on base average (wOBA) along with a whopping 27 percent strikeout rate under those conditions, the second highest mark in the league. This feeds right into the Los Angeles Dodgers lefty's impressive 9.6 K/9. In addition, the Snakes are among the least patient squad in the league which helps ease the risk that sometimes Kazmir struggles with control.
Arizona Diamondbacks are:
2-10 in their last 12 road games.
6-20 in their last 26 games overall.
7-20 in their last 27 games at Dodger Stadium.
Arizona @ LOS ANGELES
Arizona +200 over LOS ANGELES
Scott Kazmir is 9-3 after 20 starts to go along with 117 K?s in 110 innings. We?ve said it before and we?ll say it again that Scott Kazmir is on the verge of some blowupsbecause he gets progressively worse after the first time through the order. He has a xERA of 4.88 the second time through and a 5.21 the third time through. Kazmir?s 41%/21%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is exactly the type of profile that gets blown up from time to time because of the number of fly-balls surrendered. That puts him at the mercy of hr/f %. Kazmir?s hr/f rate is 15%, which in turn makes Kazmir?s profile a very risky one to be spotting a price like this with. Kazmir has been saved by a friendly strand rate of 79% over his past six starts. Because we can't bet on that happening again, neither can we expect anything near a 3-ERA again over his next six starts. Rising xERA trend combined with a BIG second half skills erosion last year put even a 4.00 ERA at risk. He'll struggle to return a profit the rest of the way. With a takeback like this, we?re more than willing to gamble that Kazmir isn?t as sharp today.
Braden Shipley debuted last week against the Brewers in Milwaukee and his pitching line looks pretty ugly. Shipley walked four and struck out four in 5.1 innings after allowing six runs. He left with an ERA of 10.80 but it?s not as bad as it seems. Five of the six runs came via the home-run. Shipley gave up solo shots in the first and third innings, but managed to battle his way into the bottom of the sixth with the score tied 3-3. A three-run shot in the sixth ended his night but that was in Milwaukee and four of the eight hits he surrendered were either a seeing eye-single or bloop single. Results notwithstanding, Shipley was actually quite impressive with his poise, mound presence and pitch selection. He?s a former first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has three average to above average offerings. His sinking 91-96 mph fastball looked good versus the Brewers. Shipley works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. We never put a lot of weight on one outing but this market is and that?s a mistake. Shipley may indeed get whacked again but this kid is high on our radar for the future because we love his arsenal and quiet confidence. He?s going to be a good one but nobody knows it yet. We?re investing now.
Hottest pitcher: Hector Santiago (9-4, 4.28 ERA)
The Red Sox snapped a maddening four-game losing streak that saw them lose the last three by one run apiece, but they remain in third place in the AL East, clinging to the second wild card. They'll now run into one of the hottest pitchers in baseball since Santiago hasn't dropped a decision since June 10, a span of eight straight outings. The Angels have won seven of those games outright and have seen Santiago surrender three runs of fewer in seven of those starts. Included in this run is a 21-2 win at Fenway Park where Santiago allowed one unearned run over six innings on July 2. Teams have been scouting him heavily as a potential trade target, so this could be one last showcase of his abilities against a top contender.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (16-1 last 17)
The greatest streak since Orel Hershiser?s consecutive scoreless innings run ended finally fell yesterday as the Orioles finally played a game where the posted total was surpassed. Since the Saturday prior to the All-Star break, Baltimore games had gone UNDER an incredible 16 straight times despite continuing to lead all of MLB in home runs. Sometimes Baltimore?s pitching was lights out and other times, its bats were asleep, which explains a 9-7 mark through the run. The Birds won four straight, then lost four in a row when outscored 19-4, averaging a run per game. The O?s then won five consecutive games before their current skid that reached four games despite them scoring five times, matching their largest output since July 6. Yovani Gallardo (3-2, 5.37) takes the ball for Baltimore and has pitched in four straight UNDER games. Toronto counters with J.A. Happ (13-3, 3.27), who has won seven consecutive decisions and has pitched in shutouts in two of his last three outings. If the Blue Jays win, they?ll grab the lead in the AL East.
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (4-1-1 last six games; 19-9-1 last 29)
There have been at least nine runs scored in six straight games involving Arizona, which squandered a 7-3 lead after stunning L.A. with a seven-run seventh inning on Friday. The Dodgers won 9-7 to pull one game behind the slumping Giants and send Scott Kazmir (9-3, 4.35) to the mound to try and hand the Snakes their 10th loss in 12 games. The Diamondbacks are struggling despite Yasmany Tomas sporting a six-game hitting streak where he's gone 11-for-24 with four homers and 10 RBI. Rookie Braden Shipley (0-1, 10.13) will make his second career start after being lit up at Milwaukee in a 7-2 defeat that represents the lone UNDER in the streak mentioned above. The OVER is just 4-6 in Dodgers/D'Backs games to date.
