01:05 PM [963] CLE INDIANS -1.5 -105 ( C KLUBER -R / C SABATHIA -L )
06:10 PM [965] TOTAL o7-120 (MIN TWINS vrs TB RAYS) ( J BERRIOS -R / C ARCHER -R )
04:05 PM [978] OAK ATHLETICS +163 ( ACTION )
04:05 PM BOS RED SOX vrs LA DODGERS Alternative Runlines [9975] BOS RED SOX -1.5 +185 (RODRIGUEZ/STRIPLING)
1 unit bet pays 25 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay later, probably...busy today..
MLB parlays: 11-127, -32.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
I'm scared of Cubs. The Cubbies lost Arrieta's last 5 starts, as big chalk in all 5 (-231,-215,-161,-200,-220!...ouch!), but he has pitched pretty good. Tho he's not at Wrigley Field, where he has a 1.71 ERA (3.66 on road, 19 runs his last 4 road starts). So only thing I can think here is possibly taking Oakland, but they win so few Gray starts, but have some of late...but Cubbies are rolling now, can't ignore that...maybe the under?..oops, DoubleTwo big on the over..Now I notice Jake not been able to keep down even Mets bats, when he on the road of late..what the heck, Oakland!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 19-7-3 in NYY last 29 home games.
Stripling will be making his first MLB start since May 19. Since then, he has either been shut down due to an innings limit, playing at Triple-A Oklahoma City or working out of the Dodgers' bullpen.
Ross Stripling is scheduled to start for Norris Saturday against the Boston Red Sox. The 26-year-old rookie has a 4.14 ERA in 54.1 innings for LA, starting eight games and closing three, but never pitching a complete game.
The injury to the recently-acquired Norris may be more evidence that the Dodgers are cursed. With 25 plays on the disabled list, they?ve set an NL record. The Red Sox, who had 27 in 2012, are the only team to sustain more injuries in a season.
Stripling spent the first seven weeks of the season as the team?s fifth starter. He posted a 4.53 earned-run average in nine games. The team sent him to the minors after he pitched in relief in a 17-inning game in San Diego. Now a 16-inning game brought him back.
During the intervening weeks, Stripling spent several weeks at the team?s complex in Camelback Ranch. The purpose of his sojourn was to conserve innings for the second half. Stripling was technically on the triple-A Oklahoma City disabled list due to leg fatigue. Stripling chuckled when asked how he recovered from this harrowing ailment.
?Didn?t think it would take a full month,? Stripling said. ?But it did.?
Under is 11-1 in BOS last 12 road games.
Under is 38-16 in LAD last 54 home games.
The Cubs have lost Arrieta's last five starts, as big chalk in all 5 (-231,-215,-161,-200,-220!), but he hasn't pitched poorly. He gave up two runs over seven-plus innings in his last outing, against the Mariners. He'll miss Wrigley Field, where he has a 1.71 ERA (3.66 on road).
Under is 13-4-2 in CHC last 19 overall.
Over is 7-1 in Grays last 8 home starts.
OAK are 4-12 in Grays last 16 starts.
Cubs are 23-5 in Arrieta?s last 28 road starts....10-1 in Arrieta?s last 11 road starts against a team with a losing record.
The most important aspect of Berrios' start -- other than the win, of course -- was the excellent control he displayed. He needed 99 pitches -- 62 strikes -- to complete six innings of work, but he didn't walk anyone and worked ahead in the count for the majority of the evening. Berrios had his immense talent on full display on Monday and it may be enough for him to stay at the Major League level for an extended run,
Under is 10-3 in Giants last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Giants are 5-16 in Cain?s last 21 road starts....Cain was good last time out, sure, but is an ugly 0-3 with a 7.48 ERA on the road this year.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros
The Astros got a great effort from the struggling Dallas Keuchel last night, as last year?s Cy Young winner in the AL shut out the Rangers 5-0. Houston needed a jolt, as they entered last night?s contest having lost NINE of 10 against the Rangers in 2016. Th victory brought Houston with 5 1/2 games of Texas in the AL West and the Astros also trail in the AL wild card race by 3 1/2 games. Doug Fister (10-7, 3.56 ERA) returns from the paternity list to make this start for Houston, while the Rangers (63-47) counter with Lucas Harrell (3-2, 3.57 ERA in 2016, pitching for both the Braves and Rangers). It marks his second start with Texas and first career appearance against the Astros.
Harrell was victorious in his Texas debut, allowing three runs on four hits in six innings against Kansas City. The best season of this 31-year-old?s career came as a member of the Astros in 2012, when he went 11-11 with a 3.76 ERA in 32 starts. Harrell owns a 9-14 record (4.12 ERA) in 36 career appearances (29 starts) at Minute Maid Park. Fister?s W-L record is 10-7 but the team has won all four of his no decisions, making him 14-7, plus-$812 vs the moneyline (that ranks 12th-best among all starters). Texas could be a VERY dangerous team when trade deadline acquisitions Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy hit their stride, so Houston had better make up some ground in this series.
Last night was a good way to start and my bet here says Fister will do his part. Injuries limited him to 15 starts last year but in 2013 (Det) and 2014 (Was) he went a combined 30-15, with his teams going 36-21 in all of his starts. Houston (with Fister) is the play.
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -110
The Miami Marlins defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-3 on Friday. The Rockies are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss and I like them to bounce back with Chad Bettis on the mound on Saturday.
Bettis (9-6, 5.16) is coming off a solid month of July where he was 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA in six starts. He fanned a season-high-tying eight hitters his last time out and has the advantage of making his first career start against the Marlins.
Miami turns to Andrew Cashner (4-7, 4.54 ERA) who impressed in his team debut since coming over from the Padres. He's not fared well in previous visits to Coors Field though with a 6.94 ERA in eight career games (four starts). He's 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in eight road starts on the season and the Fish are 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Rockies are 5-0 in Bettis' last five home starts and we have a favorable umpire with the Marlins losing each of their last four games with Clint Fagan behind home plate.
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -110
The Rockies wasted a fantastic effort from Jorge De La Rosa last night, blowing a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth. They look to bounce back in Game 2 at home Saturday, and they've won 11 of their last 14 games overall. Andrew Cashner will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's looking for his first road win of the season. Cashner (4-7, 4.54 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits and three walks over six innings in a loss at Toronto in his last road start. He's 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in eight starts on the road this season. He's been hit hard in previous meetings with the Rockies, as Colorado's lineup is hitting a combined .322 over 121 at bats versus the right-hander. The Rockies hand the ball to Chad Bettis, who has delivered five consecutive quality starts. Bettis (9-6, 5.16 ERA) allowed just one run on four hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 7-3 win over the Braves in his last home start. The Rockies have won eight of his last 10 starts, and all five of his home starts during that span. Bettis is 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA in his last five starts.
Biggest UNDER run: Rangers (6-0 last six)
Texas suffered only its second loss in 11 tries this season against Houston on Friday, getting blanked, 5-0 by Dallas Keuchel. The Rangers made plenty of moves at the trade deadline to bolster in their lineup, but Texas has plated eight runs in the past four games. Texas has finished UNDER the total in six of its previous seven road contests, as recently acquired Lucas Harrell heads to the mound tonight. Harrell is coming off a victory in his Texas debut, while finishing UNDER the total of 10 in a 5-3 win over Kansas City. Another UNDER may be in order for Harrell and the Rangers as the right-hander has given up one earned run or less in two of three road starts this season.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (7-0 last seven)
Minnesota?s offense has heated up of late by scoring at least six runs in five of the past six games, including six in last night?s 6-2 victory at Tampa Bay. The Twins have scored 41 runs in four wins on their current road trip at Cleveland and Tampa Bay, while sailing OVER the total in eight of the past nine contests away from Target Field. Rookie right-hander Jose Berrios heads to the mound for Minnesota tonight as the Twins have put together a 4-0-1 mark to the OVER in his five starts, including a pair of easy OVERS in his last two road outings.
C sez: "Parlays that pay full odds are neither mathematically good nor bad."
R's rebuttal:
This could not be more wrong. Sportsbook like taking multiples because they get more margin out of them. The simplest example being a coin toss where you're taking -110 about a true +100 chance. .
Bet Stake Edge
Heads $100 -4.55%
Heads - Heads $100 -8.89%
There is nothing stopping the savvy bettor from turning the edge in their favor. If you can find two -110 shots that close -125 then parlaying then compounds the the value.
Bet Stake Edge
Straight $100 6.06%
Parlay $100 12.48%
In this example playing two $100 wins at -110 and it closes -125 then your edge on the two bets is 12.12% but your edge on a $100 parlay is 12.48%. Parlays are one of the most misunderstood tools in a bettors armory. If you find two lines that you're confident will move two or more ticks you have to put a parlay in play. Seattle -172 yesterday was a perfect opportunity to leverage a real value ticket.
===================
The MLB Run Lines are overwhelmingly a reliance on "The Chart", so that one does not have to be afraid or a home team, nor become overly enamored with a road team, because of the issue of either not batting in the bottom of the 9th, or of the home team only aiming to win by a single run from the bottom of the 9th onwards should a game extend. The Chart is focused on the game price and Total, and goes from there, with a road favorite of exactly the same Side & Total price paying less on the Run Line than a home favorite would. So if you have a base handicap that fits, a home team can be played, since the prospect of fewer outs is factored in to the price. In this instance you will also be happy to see that there has been some early Giants money in that equation, which may even bring the Nationals R.L. down to even money.
06:10 PM [965] TOTAL o7-120 (MIN TWINS vrs TB RAYS) ( J BERRIOS -R / C ARCHER -R )
04:05 PM [978] OAK ATHLETICS +163 ( ACTION )
04:05 PM BOS RED SOX vrs LA DODGERS Alternative Runlines [9975] BOS RED SOX -1.5 +185 (RODRIGUEZ/STRIPLING)
1 unit bet pays 25 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay later, probably...busy today..
MLB parlays: 11-127, -32.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
I'm scared of Cubs. The Cubbies lost Arrieta's last 5 starts, as big chalk in all 5 (-231,-215,-161,-200,-220!...ouch!), but he has pitched pretty good. Tho he's not at Wrigley Field, where he has a 1.71 ERA (3.66 on road, 19 runs his last 4 road starts). So only thing I can think here is possibly taking Oakland, but they win so few Gray starts, but have some of late...but Cubbies are rolling now, can't ignore that...maybe the under?..oops, DoubleTwo big on the over..Now I notice Jake not been able to keep down even Mets bats, when he on the road of late..what the heck, Oakland!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 19-7-3 in NYY last 29 home games.
Stripling will be making his first MLB start since May 19. Since then, he has either been shut down due to an innings limit, playing at Triple-A Oklahoma City or working out of the Dodgers' bullpen.
Ross Stripling is scheduled to start for Norris Saturday against the Boston Red Sox. The 26-year-old rookie has a 4.14 ERA in 54.1 innings for LA, starting eight games and closing three, but never pitching a complete game.
The injury to the recently-acquired Norris may be more evidence that the Dodgers are cursed. With 25 plays on the disabled list, they?ve set an NL record. The Red Sox, who had 27 in 2012, are the only team to sustain more injuries in a season.
Stripling spent the first seven weeks of the season as the team?s fifth starter. He posted a 4.53 earned-run average in nine games. The team sent him to the minors after he pitched in relief in a 17-inning game in San Diego. Now a 16-inning game brought him back.
During the intervening weeks, Stripling spent several weeks at the team?s complex in Camelback Ranch. The purpose of his sojourn was to conserve innings for the second half. Stripling was technically on the triple-A Oklahoma City disabled list due to leg fatigue. Stripling chuckled when asked how he recovered from this harrowing ailment.
?Didn?t think it would take a full month,? Stripling said. ?But it did.?
Under is 11-1 in BOS last 12 road games.
Under is 38-16 in LAD last 54 home games.
The Cubs have lost Arrieta's last five starts, as big chalk in all 5 (-231,-215,-161,-200,-220!), but he hasn't pitched poorly. He gave up two runs over seven-plus innings in his last outing, against the Mariners. He'll miss Wrigley Field, where he has a 1.71 ERA (3.66 on road).
Under is 13-4-2 in CHC last 19 overall.
Over is 7-1 in Grays last 8 home starts.
OAK are 4-12 in Grays last 16 starts.
Cubs are 23-5 in Arrieta?s last 28 road starts....10-1 in Arrieta?s last 11 road starts against a team with a losing record.
The most important aspect of Berrios' start -- other than the win, of course -- was the excellent control he displayed. He needed 99 pitches -- 62 strikes -- to complete six innings of work, but he didn't walk anyone and worked ahead in the count for the majority of the evening. Berrios had his immense talent on full display on Monday and it may be enough for him to stay at the Major League level for an extended run,
Under is 10-3 in Giants last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Giants are 5-16 in Cain?s last 21 road starts....Cain was good last time out, sure, but is an ugly 0-3 with a 7.48 ERA on the road this year.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros
The Astros got a great effort from the struggling Dallas Keuchel last night, as last year?s Cy Young winner in the AL shut out the Rangers 5-0. Houston needed a jolt, as they entered last night?s contest having lost NINE of 10 against the Rangers in 2016. Th victory brought Houston with 5 1/2 games of Texas in the AL West and the Astros also trail in the AL wild card race by 3 1/2 games. Doug Fister (10-7, 3.56 ERA) returns from the paternity list to make this start for Houston, while the Rangers (63-47) counter with Lucas Harrell (3-2, 3.57 ERA in 2016, pitching for both the Braves and Rangers). It marks his second start with Texas and first career appearance against the Astros.
Harrell was victorious in his Texas debut, allowing three runs on four hits in six innings against Kansas City. The best season of this 31-year-old?s career came as a member of the Astros in 2012, when he went 11-11 with a 3.76 ERA in 32 starts. Harrell owns a 9-14 record (4.12 ERA) in 36 career appearances (29 starts) at Minute Maid Park. Fister?s W-L record is 10-7 but the team has won all four of his no decisions, making him 14-7, plus-$812 vs the moneyline (that ranks 12th-best among all starters). Texas could be a VERY dangerous team when trade deadline acquisitions Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy hit their stride, so Houston had better make up some ground in this series.
Last night was a good way to start and my bet here says Fister will do his part. Injuries limited him to 15 starts last year but in 2013 (Det) and 2014 (Was) he went a combined 30-15, with his teams going 36-21 in all of his starts. Houston (with Fister) is the play.
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -110
The Miami Marlins defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-3 on Friday. The Rockies are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss and I like them to bounce back with Chad Bettis on the mound on Saturday.
Bettis (9-6, 5.16) is coming off a solid month of July where he was 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA in six starts. He fanned a season-high-tying eight hitters his last time out and has the advantage of making his first career start against the Marlins.
Miami turns to Andrew Cashner (4-7, 4.54 ERA) who impressed in his team debut since coming over from the Padres. He's not fared well in previous visits to Coors Field though with a 6.94 ERA in eight career games (four starts). He's 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in eight road starts on the season and the Fish are 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Rockies are 5-0 in Bettis' last five home starts and we have a favorable umpire with the Marlins losing each of their last four games with Clint Fagan behind home plate.
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -110
The Rockies wasted a fantastic effort from Jorge De La Rosa last night, blowing a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth. They look to bounce back in Game 2 at home Saturday, and they've won 11 of their last 14 games overall. Andrew Cashner will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's looking for his first road win of the season. Cashner (4-7, 4.54 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits and three walks over six innings in a loss at Toronto in his last road start. He's 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in eight starts on the road this season. He's been hit hard in previous meetings with the Rockies, as Colorado's lineup is hitting a combined .322 over 121 at bats versus the right-hander. The Rockies hand the ball to Chad Bettis, who has delivered five consecutive quality starts. Bettis (9-6, 5.16 ERA) allowed just one run on four hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 7-3 win over the Braves in his last home start. The Rockies have won eight of his last 10 starts, and all five of his home starts during that span. Bettis is 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA in his last five starts.
Biggest UNDER run: Rangers (6-0 last six)
Texas suffered only its second loss in 11 tries this season against Houston on Friday, getting blanked, 5-0 by Dallas Keuchel. The Rangers made plenty of moves at the trade deadline to bolster in their lineup, but Texas has plated eight runs in the past four games. Texas has finished UNDER the total in six of its previous seven road contests, as recently acquired Lucas Harrell heads to the mound tonight. Harrell is coming off a victory in his Texas debut, while finishing UNDER the total of 10 in a 5-3 win over Kansas City. Another UNDER may be in order for Harrell and the Rangers as the right-hander has given up one earned run or less in two of three road starts this season.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (7-0 last seven)
Minnesota?s offense has heated up of late by scoring at least six runs in five of the past six games, including six in last night?s 6-2 victory at Tampa Bay. The Twins have scored 41 runs in four wins on their current road trip at Cleveland and Tampa Bay, while sailing OVER the total in eight of the past nine contests away from Target Field. Rookie right-hander Jose Berrios heads to the mound for Minnesota tonight as the Twins have put together a 4-0-1 mark to the OVER in his five starts, including a pair of easy OVERS in his last two road outings.
C sez: "Parlays that pay full odds are neither mathematically good nor bad."
R's rebuttal:
This could not be more wrong. Sportsbook like taking multiples because they get more margin out of them. The simplest example being a coin toss where you're taking -110 about a true +100 chance. .
Bet Stake Edge
Heads $100 -4.55%
Heads - Heads $100 -8.89%
There is nothing stopping the savvy bettor from turning the edge in their favor. If you can find two -110 shots that close -125 then parlaying then compounds the the value.
Bet Stake Edge
Straight $100 6.06%
Parlay $100 12.48%
In this example playing two $100 wins at -110 and it closes -125 then your edge on the two bets is 12.12% but your edge on a $100 parlay is 12.48%. Parlays are one of the most misunderstood tools in a bettors armory. If you find two lines that you're confident will move two or more ticks you have to put a parlay in play. Seattle -172 yesterday was a perfect opportunity to leverage a real value ticket.
===================
The MLB Run Lines are overwhelmingly a reliance on "The Chart", so that one does not have to be afraid or a home team, nor become overly enamored with a road team, because of the issue of either not batting in the bottom of the 9th, or of the home team only aiming to win by a single run from the bottom of the 9th onwards should a game extend. The Chart is focused on the game price and Total, and goes from there, with a road favorite of exactly the same Side & Total price paying less on the Run Line than a home favorite would. So if you have a base handicap that fits, a home team can be played, since the prospect of fewer outs is factored in to the price. In this instance you will also be happy to see that there has been some early Giants money in that equation, which may even bring the Nationals R.L. down to even money.
