07:10 PM MLB [957] WAS NATIONALS -270 ( M SCHERZER -R / T JENKINS -R )
08:40 PM MLB [963] TOTAL o8.5 -110 (ARI DBACKS vrs SDG PADRES) (RAY/RICHARD)
07:05 PM MLB [968] BAL ORIOLES -145 ( M FIERS -R / C TILLMAN -R )
07:10 PM MLB [972] TOTAL u8.5 +100 (TOR BLUE JAYS vrs CLE INDIANS) (SANCHEZ/TOMLIN)
07:10 PM MLB [974] CHI WHITE SOX -180 ( R DETWILER -L / C SALE -L )
07:15 PM MLB [976] KC ROYALS -185 ( H SANTIAGO -L / I KENNEDY -R )
09:35 PM MLB [977] TOTAL o9-120 (NY YANKEES vrs LA ANGELS) (CESSA/NOLASCO)
09:10 PM MLB [980] SEA MARINERS -235 ( W PERALTA -R / F HERNANDEZ -R )
1 unit bet pays 54....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 13-137, -28.06 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Houston vs. Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -130
The Orioles put their 40-20 home record on the line tonight as they play the 3rd game in their 4 game set against the Houston Astros. We have a huge pitching mismatch here and the we believe the oddsmaker has come up a bit light today in setting the line. The Orioles send RH Chris Tillman (15-4, 3.46 ERA) to the hill and Tillman has been special at home this year with an 8-1 record. Against the Astros in his career he has a 2.48 ERA with a WHIP of 1.071. The Astros send RH Mike Fiers (8-6, 4.66 ERA) to the hill tonight and he has been having a rough time of it lately. In his last 3 starts he has a 6.32 ERA with a WHIP of 1.340. When Fiers ventures on the road it is not any better, as he is sporting a 6.40 ERA with a WHIP of 1.596. Backing our selection is the fact that the Orioles are 8-2 in Tillman's last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game and also the fact that the Astros are 4-13 in the last 17 meetings in Baltimore. We had this line at 150 with the Orioles only laying 130 at the time of this writing. We see HUGE value in the Orioles and we will take it.
Peralta?s first two starts back in the big leagues have been promising. Working with better velocity on his two-seam fastball, Peralta has a 2.25 ERA and a .200 opponents? average in his first 12 innings up from Triple-A.
Blue Jays vs. Indians
Play: Under 8?
The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's showdown between the Blue Jays and Indians. Toronto will send out Aaron Sanchez, who is 12-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 23 starts. Sanchez has been absolutely light's out on the road, where he's 7-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 12 starts. Cleveland counters with Josh Tomlin, who bounced back from a couple of bad outings to hold a potent Red Sox offense to just 3 runs in 7 innings during his last start. Tomlin was dominant in his lone outing against the Blue Jays this season, limiting them to just 1 run in 6 innings at Toronto. UNDER is 13-2 in Sanchez's last 15 starts during night games and 21-9 in the Blue Jays last 30 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.
-
First, how things looked pre-season from the 2016 Baseball Prospect Book:
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-4 WT: 185 DOB: January 8, 1993
2015: Grade B
As you no doubt know, Hoffman was drafted in the first round by the Blue Jays in 2014 despite needing Tommy John surgery. He came back quickly, pitched well, then was traded to the Rockies in the Troy Tulowitzki blockbuster deal. The surgery hasn?t hurt his arm strength at all: he immediately regained his 93-96 MPH fastball with peaks at 98-99. Scouts rate his curveball as high as 70 on the 20-80 scale. The change-up isn?t as good as the fastball and curve but it is usable and should improve with more innings. Hoffman?s strikeout rate is not as high as you?d expect given his stuff and he?s probably a little less refined than the surface numbers and his reputation imply. Another year in the high minors to polish the change-up and build his stamina back up seems wise. Watch for any spike in K/IP, which would presage an accelerated timetable. Grade B+.
ADDITIONAL COMMENTARY
Hoffman made 24 starts for the Albuquerque Isotopes in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League this year, posting a 4.02 ERA with a 124/44 K/BB in 119 innings with 117 hits allowed. That's a fine season especially by PCL standards and the consensus from league observers is that he's ready for a major league trial. Scouting reports haven't changed much: he's in the mid-90s with peaks at 98, he has an excellent curveball, and has made slow but steady progress with his change-up. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs posted a detailed scouting report yesterday and his observations tally well with what other PCL sources have said.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-hoffman-debut-electric-boogaloo/
Hoffman's strikeout rate is up this year, which lends credence to the report of improved secondary pitches and more polish. The main caution flag for Hoffman is, of course, Coors Field. On his own merits he projects as a number two starter if everything maxes out, but the environment will be difficult and cuts into his margin for error. Adjust your fantasy expectations accordingly, but in pure baseball terms he's one of the top young talents in the game. Grade-wise he is right on the edge between a B+ and A- for me.
--
A free agent in more than half of leagues, Ian Kennedy draws a home date with the Twins. The righty has been dealing of late, as he has given up only three combined runs over his last four starts. He's also striking out nearly a batter per inning (8.9 K/9). The Twins' offense has really been clicking in the second half (110 wRC+), but Minnesota has still been merely average against right-handers this season (99 wRC+).
Miami +115 over PITTSBURGH
The Fish belted out 16 hits last night on Gerrit Cole and took the opener of this series, 6-5. They?ll take a step down in class here when facing Chad Kuhl and his misleading 3-0 record. Kuhl has a very ordinary BB/K split of 9/22 in 31 frames. His first-pitch strike rate of 52% is asking for trouble. Kuhl?s 3.73 ERA does not have the support of his underlying numbers, which include an average K-rate, a fly-ball lean profile and just a 7% swing and miss rate. Truth be told, Kuhl?s 80% strand rate is doing the heavy lifting. His xERA of 4.62 is a more accurate account of his very average skills. It?s also worth noting that before being called up on June 26, Kuhl was absolutely rocked in four consecutive minor league starts. In no way does he deserve to be the favorite here pitching for the inferior squad. He?s also the second best starter in this matchup.
Enter David Phelps, one of the most under the radar pitchers in the majors right now. Phelps spent most of the year in the Marlins bullpen but he is now transitioning to starting again, a role he is quite familiar with. Phelps has appeared in 53 games this year with the last three coming as a starter. He?ll now make his fourth consecutive start and there is a great chance he?ll be stretched out here. In his first start, Phelps went 4.1 innings in Colorado and allowed just four hits and zero runs. His next start at home against the Giants saw him get stretched out to five innings. He allowed just four hits and one run. In his last start in Cinci, he went 5.1 innings and allowed just four hits and two runs. Over those past three starts covering 14.2 innings, Phelps struck out 18 batters with the support of an elite 15% swing and miss rate. Note that Phelps? skills against right-handers have been better than any pitcher in MLB not named Scherzer: 55/7 K/BB split in 37 innings. That elite command has produced elite results. Overall, Phelps has 86 K?s in 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA. He has the support of a xERA of 2.84. He?ll now face a heavy right-handed batting lineup here that will send just two lefties to the plate. Wrong side favored.
08:40 PM MLB [963] TOTAL o8.5 -110 (ARI DBACKS vrs SDG PADRES) (RAY/RICHARD)
07:05 PM MLB [968] BAL ORIOLES -145 ( M FIERS -R / C TILLMAN -R )
07:10 PM MLB [972] TOTAL u8.5 +100 (TOR BLUE JAYS vrs CLE INDIANS) (SANCHEZ/TOMLIN)
07:10 PM MLB [974] CHI WHITE SOX -180 ( R DETWILER -L / C SALE -L )
07:15 PM MLB [976] KC ROYALS -185 ( H SANTIAGO -L / I KENNEDY -R )
09:35 PM MLB [977] TOTAL o9-120 (NY YANKEES vrs LA ANGELS) (CESSA/NOLASCO)
09:10 PM MLB [980] SEA MARINERS -235 ( W PERALTA -R / F HERNANDEZ -R )
1 unit bet pays 54....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 13-137, -28.06 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Houston vs. Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -130
The Orioles put their 40-20 home record on the line tonight as they play the 3rd game in their 4 game set against the Houston Astros. We have a huge pitching mismatch here and the we believe the oddsmaker has come up a bit light today in setting the line. The Orioles send RH Chris Tillman (15-4, 3.46 ERA) to the hill and Tillman has been special at home this year with an 8-1 record. Against the Astros in his career he has a 2.48 ERA with a WHIP of 1.071. The Astros send RH Mike Fiers (8-6, 4.66 ERA) to the hill tonight and he has been having a rough time of it lately. In his last 3 starts he has a 6.32 ERA with a WHIP of 1.340. When Fiers ventures on the road it is not any better, as he is sporting a 6.40 ERA with a WHIP of 1.596. Backing our selection is the fact that the Orioles are 8-2 in Tillman's last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game and also the fact that the Astros are 4-13 in the last 17 meetings in Baltimore. We had this line at 150 with the Orioles only laying 130 at the time of this writing. We see HUGE value in the Orioles and we will take it.
Peralta?s first two starts back in the big leagues have been promising. Working with better velocity on his two-seam fastball, Peralta has a 2.25 ERA and a .200 opponents? average in his first 12 innings up from Triple-A.
Blue Jays vs. Indians
Play: Under 8?
The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's showdown between the Blue Jays and Indians. Toronto will send out Aaron Sanchez, who is 12-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 23 starts. Sanchez has been absolutely light's out on the road, where he's 7-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 12 starts. Cleveland counters with Josh Tomlin, who bounced back from a couple of bad outings to hold a potent Red Sox offense to just 3 runs in 7 innings during his last start. Tomlin was dominant in his lone outing against the Blue Jays this season, limiting them to just 1 run in 6 innings at Toronto. UNDER is 13-2 in Sanchez's last 15 starts during night games and 21-9 in the Blue Jays last 30 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.
-
First, how things looked pre-season from the 2016 Baseball Prospect Book:
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-4 WT: 185 DOB: January 8, 1993
2015: Grade B
As you no doubt know, Hoffman was drafted in the first round by the Blue Jays in 2014 despite needing Tommy John surgery. He came back quickly, pitched well, then was traded to the Rockies in the Troy Tulowitzki blockbuster deal. The surgery hasn?t hurt his arm strength at all: he immediately regained his 93-96 MPH fastball with peaks at 98-99. Scouts rate his curveball as high as 70 on the 20-80 scale. The change-up isn?t as good as the fastball and curve but it is usable and should improve with more innings. Hoffman?s strikeout rate is not as high as you?d expect given his stuff and he?s probably a little less refined than the surface numbers and his reputation imply. Another year in the high minors to polish the change-up and build his stamina back up seems wise. Watch for any spike in K/IP, which would presage an accelerated timetable. Grade B+.
ADDITIONAL COMMENTARY
Hoffman made 24 starts for the Albuquerque Isotopes in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League this year, posting a 4.02 ERA with a 124/44 K/BB in 119 innings with 117 hits allowed. That's a fine season especially by PCL standards and the consensus from league observers is that he's ready for a major league trial. Scouting reports haven't changed much: he's in the mid-90s with peaks at 98, he has an excellent curveball, and has made slow but steady progress with his change-up. Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs posted a detailed scouting report yesterday and his observations tally well with what other PCL sources have said.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-hoffman-debut-electric-boogaloo/
Hoffman's strikeout rate is up this year, which lends credence to the report of improved secondary pitches and more polish. The main caution flag for Hoffman is, of course, Coors Field. On his own merits he projects as a number two starter if everything maxes out, but the environment will be difficult and cuts into his margin for error. Adjust your fantasy expectations accordingly, but in pure baseball terms he's one of the top young talents in the game. Grade-wise he is right on the edge between a B+ and A- for me.
--
A free agent in more than half of leagues, Ian Kennedy draws a home date with the Twins. The righty has been dealing of late, as he has given up only three combined runs over his last four starts. He's also striking out nearly a batter per inning (8.9 K/9). The Twins' offense has really been clicking in the second half (110 wRC+), but Minnesota has still been merely average against right-handers this season (99 wRC+).
Miami +115 over PITTSBURGH
The Fish belted out 16 hits last night on Gerrit Cole and took the opener of this series, 6-5. They?ll take a step down in class here when facing Chad Kuhl and his misleading 3-0 record. Kuhl has a very ordinary BB/K split of 9/22 in 31 frames. His first-pitch strike rate of 52% is asking for trouble. Kuhl?s 3.73 ERA does not have the support of his underlying numbers, which include an average K-rate, a fly-ball lean profile and just a 7% swing and miss rate. Truth be told, Kuhl?s 80% strand rate is doing the heavy lifting. His xERA of 4.62 is a more accurate account of his very average skills. It?s also worth noting that before being called up on June 26, Kuhl was absolutely rocked in four consecutive minor league starts. In no way does he deserve to be the favorite here pitching for the inferior squad. He?s also the second best starter in this matchup.
Enter David Phelps, one of the most under the radar pitchers in the majors right now. Phelps spent most of the year in the Marlins bullpen but he is now transitioning to starting again, a role he is quite familiar with. Phelps has appeared in 53 games this year with the last three coming as a starter. He?ll now make his fourth consecutive start and there is a great chance he?ll be stretched out here. In his first start, Phelps went 4.1 innings in Colorado and allowed just four hits and zero runs. His next start at home against the Giants saw him get stretched out to five innings. He allowed just four hits and one run. In his last start in Cinci, he went 5.1 innings and allowed just four hits and two runs. Over those past three starts covering 14.2 innings, Phelps struck out 18 batters with the support of an elite 15% swing and miss rate. Note that Phelps? skills against right-handers have been better than any pitcher in MLB not named Scherzer: 55/7 K/BB split in 37 innings. That elite command has produced elite results. Overall, Phelps has 86 K?s in 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA. He has the support of a xERA of 2.84. He?ll now face a heavy right-handed batting lineup here that will send just two lefties to the plate. Wrong side favored.
