07:00 PM CFB [188] TULSA -4.5 -110
10:30 PM CFB University of Phoenix, Glendale, AZ [205] BYU -1-115
09:00 PM SOC [26018] FC Dallas -170
07:05 PM MLB [958] Pittsburgh Pirates -187 ( J Nelson - R / I Nova)
07:10 PM MLB [959] Washington Nationals -132 (Roark/Gsellman)
07:05 PM MLB [970] Baltimore Orioles -145 ( C Sabathia - L / K Gausman)
09:05 PM MLB [975] Boston Red Sox -187 ( R Porcello - R / D Mengden)
1 unit bet pays 38 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-149, -37.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Over is 15-5-1 in ATL last 21 overall.
TEX are 44-18 in their last 62 home games....Texas is 6-1 in Holland home outings...Astros won 10 of last 13 games....Texas won 10 of last 11 home games
Chicago is 21-3 in last 24 home games
Over is 13-5 in New York?s last 18 games
Fulmer is 0-2, 7.59 in his last two starts; five of his last six stayed under....Detroit is 11-3 in his road starts...Royals lost four of last five games; last six KC games went over the total...Ventura is 3-0, 2.67 in his last five starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Royals are 7-3 in his home starts.
over is 11-4 in Mariners? last 15 games.
Cleveland is 13-3 in last 16 home games; five of Tribe?s last six games stayed under.
Over is 18-7-1 in ATL last 26 overall.
Umpires
Az-Col: Over is 11-5 in last sixteen Woodring games.
Hst-Tex: Under is 10-5-1 in last 16 Barry games.
Chi-Min: Under is 13-5-1 in last 19 Estabrook games.
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Braves +131
Two of the worst teams in baseball will square up at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday when the 52-83 Atlanta Braves take on the 60-74 Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta has been the hotter of the two teams lately though, and it defeated the Phillies 8-4 last night. I think this looks like a great price on Atlanta to notch another victory.
Vince Velasquez (8-6, 4.21) takes the ball for Philadelphia. He's 0-4 with a 5.76 ERA in his last eight starts (1-7 team record), and the 24 year old has been reached for 10 runs on 14 hits with five homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two home starts. He's 0-1 in two starts against Atlanta this season while surrendering six runs on 13 hits through 12 innings of work.
The Braves turn to John Gant (1-3, 4.59 ERA) who will try to make a case for why he should be in the Atlanta rotation for 2017. Gant is making his first since returning from a left oblique strain that kept him on the disabled list for 58 days, but he has posted a 3.75 ERA in 24 innings of work on the road this season.
Pitching advantage Philadelphia, but then what? The team has lost eight of its last 10 games while Atlanta has won each of its last four and five of its last six.
Angels vs. Mariners
Pick: Mariners
It seems that those fans expecting Taijuan Walker to break out will have to wait at least until next season. It's not that the RHP and former first round draft pick (#43 overall in 2010) has been terrible, it's just that we still haven't seen a full season of the talent that Walker displayed prior to coming to the Majors. While his 4.19 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are both better than last season, Walker has struggled to find consistency, and his 4-9 record - while at least partially due to poor run support - is not even close to what it should be on a playoff contending team. The Mariners desperately need Walker to find the form tonight that he had in his only two home starts of June against the Indians (eight shutout innings with 11 KOs) and Orioles (6 1/3 IP, 4 H, and just 1 ER). Angels LHP Tyler Scaggs looked like a world-beater in July when he came up from AAA, posting a 1-0 record with no runs allowed in two starts that month. But he quickly fell apart in August with a 7.23 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in five starts. L.A. just traded away one its few reliable late innings relievers (Fernando Salas), so even if Scaggs pitches well early, the bullpen could blow it for him.
New York at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -140
Baltimore shut out New York 8-0 last night and now the Yankees have to face Kevin Gausman again after he blanked them for seven innings on Sunday with nine strikeouts and no walks. Gausman is 5-1 with a 2.48 ERA at home and he has been lights out against the Bronx Bombers giving up just three runs in 27 2/3 innings for a 0.98 ERA this year. CC Sabathia is 8-11 with a 4.31 ERA and was the losing pitcher in the 5-0 loss against Baltimore with the same pitching matchup. In his previous game against the Orioles on July 21, Sabathia was touched for four runs and seven hits in 6 2/3 innings in another Yankees loss. New York has lost seven of Sabathia's last eight starts within the division. Baltimore has won Gausman's last six home starts and the Orioles are 44-24 at home.
TAMPA BAY +140 over Toronto
Our attack on Toronto?s Marco Estrada is not going to end until the season does and as long as he continues to be overpriced. The story has not changed for Estrada, as he continues to fall behind in the count while getting hit hard almost every start. When Estrada gets through innings, it is due to luck driven factors like hard hit balls being hit right at people. Estrada?s extreme fly-ball rate will likely play better at this park than others but it matters not because he?s usually good for six warning track shots a game. Marco Estarda was banished to the bullpen in July 2014, after posting a 2.3 HR/9 during the first half of the season when a 17% HR/F rate met his 50% fly-ball rate. Nothing has changed but his luck.
Blake Snell has 72 K?s in 68 innings. He too, is a risk but he throws 95 MPH heat with life while inducing 16% swings and misses. Snell is a highly touted youngster that is prone to blowups but has the talent to thrive too. That projection all came together as he blew through three levels in 2015 and is on the cusp of being a top of the rotation starter. Snell?s advanced arsenal is one worth watching and backing when warranted. The Rays are a dangerous foe that is playing for keeps against these contenders in the AL East. We guarantee you that none of these contenders, Baltimore, Toronto, Boston or New York look forward to playing these Rays and anyone that follows this game closely understands why. Huge overlay.
San Diego +249 over LOS ANGELES
Luis Perdomo has been on our radar all season long and for good reason. Perdomo is underpriced every start because of his misleading 5.84 ERA. That ERA was the result of a horrible start for Perdomo, which was the due to a high 38% hit rate, low 58% strand rate, and very high 43% hr/f more than anything else. Perdomo?s underlying skills as a starting pitcher were good then and they still are. Perdomo?s 64% groundball rate is tops in the majors among pitchers with 100 or more innings. Over his last four starts, his ERA is a sneaky 3.04 with an xERA of 3.55. The Padres won the opener last night and they have also won five of Perdomo?s past eight starts. A pitcher like Perdomo cannot be offered a tag like this one when facing Rich Hill.
Rich Hill made his Dodgers debut on August 24 but has not pitched since due to a recurring blister problem. This past week, Hill was scheduled to start twice but was a late scratch both times. In his last start versus the Giants, Hill?s swing and miss rate was down from 13% on the year to 6%. He shut out the Giants for six innings but had a mere three K?s with two of those K?s occurring against pitcher Johnny Cueto. Take those out and Hill struck out one batter through six innings. We are suggesting that Hill, who relies on a sweeping curve to get swings, is now forced to change his grip on the ball. Remember, prior to finding something last year, Rich Hill was a minor league pitcher with chronic control problems. He?s 36 years old and has spent the majority of seven of his 11 seasons as a pro in the minors. That last start, despite being a good one on paper, combined with successive scratches raises the risk on Hill. Blister problems, a likely different grip on the ball, a nine-day layoff and chronic control problems his entire career is precisely the type of pitcher we?re happy to take back 2?-1 against. This line is insane.
Texas State vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio -21
Ohio is loaded for Frank Solich who is now the the most successful active coach in the MAC. The Bobcats have not had a losing season since 2006 and are loaded this year and will compete for the conference championship. Texas State is off a disappointing year that forced Coach Fran into retirement and return just 10 starters. This figures to be a slow rebuild for the Bobcats and the schedule maker didn't do them any favors opening them vs. ground and pound Ohio on the road. Lay the points with a home team that generally takes care of business when it's supposed to.
Texas State vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio -21
Ohio is loaded for Frank Solich who is now the the most successful active coach in the MAC. The Bobcats have not had a losing season since 2006 and are loaded this year and will compete for the conference championship. Texas State is off a disappointing year that forced Coach Fran into retirement and return just 10 starters. This figures to be a slow rebuild for the Bobcats and the schedule maker didn't do them any favors opening them vs. ground and pound Ohio on the road. Lay the points with a home team that generally takes care of business when it's supposed to.
Southern Miss vs. Kentucky
Play: Southern Miss +7
The CFB kicked off last week with a game that landed right on the Las Vegas Line, Cal winning by 20 over Hawaii. There are games Thursday through Monday this week, so buckle the chinstraps and let?s talk some action. This weekend I have a match-up I feel the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have not given enough credit to the underdog, and that team is Southern Miss. With 14 starters back, this is a team that again will contend for a conference championship, as they lost last year to a good Western Kentucky team in the title game in a shootout. Yes, it is SEC versus a mid-major conference, but this is not Wildcat Basketball, it is Wildcat Football and Mark Stoops is on the hot seat at Kentucky.
Southern Miss is a solid veteran team, and QB Nick Mullens (38 TD passes in 2015) is a flat out stud with 14 starters back from a conference division winning team. His offensive coordinator ironically is Shane Dawson, who Mark Stoops at Kentucky fired last year, and no doubt has some motivation to beat Stoops and knows the Kentucky team inside and out, and that is an advantage! Jay Hopsen, former So. Miss Defensive Coordinator takes over the reins at head coach at Southern Miss, and word is the transition has been seamless and Southern Miss is a well-conditioned team with experience, a rock solid RB in Ito Smith who gained over 1100 yards last year, and averaged 6.6 yards per carry.
The setup here is a veteran team with massive offensive potential on the ground and through the air catching big points, and that is always worth a long look. Add in the fact their QB Mullens is better than Kentucky?s Drew Barker, and the fact this is a young Kentucky team that will start on the OL and DL, 7 Freshman or Sophomores, and you have a perfect storm brewing Lexington this Saturday and the Golden Eagles will no doubt provide a very stiff challenge for Kentucky, even on the road.
I will not come out and say Southern Miss can upset the Kentucky Wildcats, but catching almost a TD on the Las Vegas Line is more than sufficient reason to grab the points and the underdog in this game. A Southern Miss win would not surprise me one bit.
Kent State @ Penn State
Pick: Penn State -20
The Penn State Nittany Lions always seem to have a very good defense, it is what they get out of their offense that typically determines how far they rise. They have a good man in Joe Moorhead that came over from Fordham that had the Ram's offense clicking. Add in the fact that the young front five for Penn State has gotten a year's experience under their belt, and could be a whole lot better this season. Saquon Barkley may benefit the most, as he eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground with an inexperienced front line. I'm surprised Paul Haynes has survived at Kent State with just nine wins in his first three years. He is surely on the hot seat to get something done. The good news is that he has nine starters back on offense, but the bad news is that group ranked #124 last season. The defense should be strong, but this is a club that is not built to play in the Big-10, and as good as the defense was last year they lost their opener 52-3 to Illinois. The history is perhaps very telling as the Golden Flashes are 0-13 SU vs. the Big-10 and 3-10 ATS, and have scored a grand total of one TD in their last seven vs. the Big-10, and have been out-scored 278-13! That is not a typo, 278-13! Enough said, the Nittany Lions roll, so play on Penn State.
San Jose St at Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -5
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane enter the second year of the Philip Montgomery regime and I think this team is poised for improvement following a 6-7 campaign. This program was a disaster area during Bill Blankenship?s tenure but Montgomery, in just his first year on the job, took the team from 2-10 to a bowl game berth. Senior quarterback Dane Evans is back to lead what should be a very good offense. Evans posted a 63% completion rate with 25 TDs and just 8 INTs and should be even better in 2016. The offensive line has four returning starters and they have plenty of playmakers at the skill positions to put up points in bunches. Tulsa is in need of improvement on defense which was their biggest issue last season. They return seven starters including four of their top five tacklers. The Golden Hurricane will no doubt be better against the run after getting carved up for 240 ypg. The d-line returns three starters and everyone starting along that unit is either a junior or senior. The linebacker corps has increased depth and experience and the secondary has six of its top eight returning.
San Jose State comes off a 5-7 season as they enter their fourth with Ron Carragher as head coach. They should have a competitive outfit in the Mountain West but I do have some concerns as they play their first game of the season on the road. I normally don?t overreact to running back departures but the loss of Tyler Ervin from last year?s squad is a big one. He was everything to the San Jose State offense and broke the school?s single season rushing record. Also note the ineligibility of senior receiver Tyler Winston due to academic reasons. Both players had a huge impact on the offense. Quarterback Kenny Potter looks to be a solid one and has dual threat capabilities but the defense could be an early season concern for the Spartans. They break in a new DC in former Eastern Michigan head coach Ron English. Even though the system is expected to remain largely unchanged (4-3 defensive scheme), there still could be a bit of an early season learning curve for that group. San Jose State looks weakest in the secondary and that is not where you want to be weak going up against Dane Evans and a strong Tulsa aerial attack. San Jose State lost a pair of their best corners from last season?s second ranked pass defense with Cleveland Wallace and Jimmy Pruitt departing. San Jose State started slowly last season and dropped each of their two September road games against Air Force and Oregon State; losing by 14+ points in both games. This is a reasonable price to lay with Tulsa (from the superior conference) at less than a touchdown at home.
New Mexico St vs. UTEP 8PM
Play: Over 60.5
The UTEP Miners return thirteen starters from last season?s team which includes their star RB Aaron Jones who was lost last season in their opener. The Aggies also return thirteen starters and add one critical addition in TCU transfer QB Tyler Matthews. UTEP has dominated this series of late winners of the last seven going 5-0-2 against the number but our interest in actually in the total. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 67.21 points in this matchup. Last year UTEP had fallen behind 44 to 30 before scoring a late touchdown with under a minute left to force overtime and eventually got the victory. Both teams have the ability to score forty tonight and we expect a high scoring affair. Since 2012 the Aggies have posted a record of 28-8-1 Over the posted total cashing for Over bettors at a rate of 77.8 percent of the time. They are 26-7 Over when installed as an underdog over that span and 16-3 Over when playing away from home. Finally we see the Aggies are 15-3 Over the last eighteen times they have been installed as a road underdog. We will not buck that trend here play the Over.
SMU at N. Texas
Play: SMU -9.5
If you follow my selections regularly you will sometime hear me refer to games as "hidden blowouts". They are "hidden" because they aren't so obvious of a mismatch to the untrained eye. One of those games this week could be happening in Denton, TX. North Texas finds itself in a downward spiral, just two years removed from a 9-4 bowl game winning season of 2013. A career assistant coach at many previous stops, Seth Littrell takes over the bumbling football program after a 1-11 finish in 2015. SMU meanwhile, was just a game better at 2-10 a year ago, but boasts 16 returning starters, including QB Matt Davis, who threw for 16 TD?s against just seven interceptions. The Mustangs are a 9.5-point favorite on the road, but won easily over the Mean Green last September, 31-13, while winning the yardage battle 444-240. Things could be much worse for North Texas in 2016.
BYU vs. Arizona
Play: BYU +1.5
Kind of an unusual setup at several levels on this opener between BYU and Arizona. First off, it?s not a home game for Arizona. The game is at Glendale, and while it?s been lined as a home/neutral for the Wildcats, I?m not sure that?s justified. BYU always travels well, and from what I?m gathering, Cougar Nation has already arrived and they?re going to be out in force for this game.
As for what else is unusual, BYU didn?t name its starting QB till this past week, and Rich Rodriguez is still not saying who will be under center for Arizona. My guess is that Anu Solomon starts as he?s the veteran, but that?s sure not a certainty. Taysom Hill will be the QB1 for BYU, and we?ll see if he?s lost anything due to all the injuries he?s incurred. My info is that he has looked sharp and flat out won the competition.
One big issue on the Arizona side for me is the lack of size on the defensive front. Three of the six guys who figure to see the most action are under 250 pounds. That?s almost unheard of these days, particularly at a major conference school. BYU has a big and experienced OL and I really feel as though there?s a chance for the Cougars to wear down the ?Cats if they commit to the run on a consistent basis.
The big worry is that it?s a debuting coach in Kalani Sitake who?s replacing a fixture in Bronco Mendenhall. But my concern is probably less than it might normally be as I am not a RichRod believer. So I?m going to bank on my pre-season projections, and those all show the Cougars as the better team. Not by a lot, mind you, but I?ve got BYU by a small margin on a neutral field across the board, I do make this a neutral site so no home field incorporated for ?Zona, and I?m getting a little bit from the oddsmakers.This figures to be an exciting game that could be high scoring, but the bet for me is BYU plus the small available points.
BYU / Arizona Under 60.5
Major changes going on at BYU with longtime head coach Bronco Mendenhall headed to Virginia and former Oregon State DC Kalani Sitake handed the reigns. Also new will be offensive coordinator TY Detmer who takes over for Robert Anae who followed Mendenhall to Charlottesville. Detmer has never coached at the collegiate level and plans to implement a more pro style approach compared to the spread, up-tempo attack ran under Anae. The move is interesting because it doesn't necessarily fit the skill set of veteran quarterback Taysom Hill who as we all know is ultra-dangerous using his feet. However, it may give Hill a better chance to stay healthy after missing time due to injury each of the last two seasons. Either way, the plan is to be more deliberate as stated by backup quarterback Koy Detmer Jr.
?Last year, we were trying to go real fast and catch the defense off-guard, trying to score a lot of points and get a lot of plays,? said backup quarterback Koy Detmer Jr. ?This year, we?re going to slow it down. We?re going to try to execute on each play more. With this offense, we?re going to try to put the defense in positions we want them to be in so we can get the look we want to run a play to get a good result. There?s a lot more manipulation. Ty?s going to be a mastermind up there calling plays. Ty will call a play and we look at our wristbands. No more crazy signs on the sidelines. It will be huddle up and go.?
On the flip side, Arizona isn't looking to slow down its pace. With quarterback Anu Solomon and running back Nick Wilson back, the offense is expected to put points on the board. But I look for big improvements on the defensive side of the ball from the Wildcats. Last year, thanks to a litany of injuries, Arizona allowed 6.29 ypp and 484.6 ypg in PAC-12 play. Head coach Rich Rodriguez went out and hired former Boise State DC Marcel Yates. He inherits a relatively "green" stop unit but one that is healthy and coupled with his "havoc" style of play should yield better results in 2016.
This is a game that will likely feature plenty of yards and points but I think with BYU's new offensive mentality and Arizona's fresh start on defense, there's far more potential for stops than had these two teams met up last season. The number has crept down some but I'd still look under at 60.5.
Ilir Latifi +180 over Ryan Bader
Ryan Bader deserves to be favored in this fight. He has fought the best of the light heavyweight division since he KO'd Keith Jardine in 2010. His resume includes fights vs. Tito Ortiz, Jon Jones, Little Nog, Rampage Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Glover Texeira, Ovince St. Preux, Rashad Evans, and Rumble Johnson. This may be one of the most impressive assortments of opponents for someone that has never held the championship belt. Compiling a 21-5 professional MMA record, 'Darth' Bader has been an absolute rock in the top-10 for most of his UFC career. In his past six fights, Bader has gone 5-1 with all of his wins coming by decision. He is a division I All American wrestler, and has been very successful utilizing takedowns to gain top control and grind frustratingly boring victories ever since his last knockout over some guy named Jason Brilz in 2011. Bader is an intelligent fighter, who knows how to keep out of danger and grapple his way to victory, however, when he his hit by a power puncher, history shows, that he doesn't have the chin to survive.
In February of 2016, Bader was pitted against Anthony Johnson and this fight was over before it began. Bader was rocked quickly and then ground and pounded to a TKO loss. In 2013, Bader fought Glover Texeira and was caught with a punch, and following a brief scramble, he was awarded a TKO loss. In the 2012 Bader vs. Machida, fight, Machida would catch Bader early in the second round and Bader would lose by TKO. The track record for Bader vs. power punchers comes with mixed results, as he was able to survive and grapple with OSP and defeat an old and tired Rashad Evans but his last three results may show that Bader's intense fight schedule over the past 10 years is starting to slow him down as well as the devastating knockout suffered earlier this year.
Ilir Latifi has begun his ascension up the light heavyweight ladder. In his first bout at 205lbs, Latifi was caught early in round one vs. Jan Blachowicz and knocked out. This was the only time Latifi had been knocked out since 2009, and showed his vulnerability vs. weight class at first glance but Latifi has reeled off three straight victories while looking very impressive in each. Following two first round knockouts vs. middling MMA veterans Hans Stringer, and Sean O'Connell, many believed that Latifi would continue this path of destruction at UFC 196 vs. Gian Villante. In what would be as surprising a result as Tate defeating Holly Holm, or maybe McGregor losing to Diaz, there was no knockout to be seen in the Villante/Latifi matchup. Instead, Latifi displayed his well roundedness, earning takedowns in rounds two and three and showing the division he wasn't just a free swinging KO fighter. On his way to a unanimous 30-27 decision win, Latifi was slotted into the rankings, and is now taking on a perennial top-10 fighter in Bader.
Bader has one way to win this fight and that is to out-wrestle Latifi. Currently, through 11 rounds of UFC fights, Latifi has yet to be taken down, sporting a perfect 100% takedown defense. Obviously Bader is a different animal than any fighter that Latifi has faced, but the fact remains, we don't know if Bader will have success, and if he misses on a takedown, his chin will be exposed in close vs. a very powerful puncher. The other unknown here is the state of Bader's head following his latest surge up the rankings that culminated in a devastating one-minute KO loss. While the physical toll is to be considered as well, the mental toll on getting five straight decision wins and being very close to a title shot just to have it shattered in such a quick fashion can be demoralizing and break a fighters confidence.
This line is suggesting Bader will perform the 'Dump and Hump' each round and bore the fans to death with a three-round decision win but there is so much risk with this fighter with a couple notable unknowns in this matchup. With Latifi looking to continue his wave of momentum into the top-10 and with what has to be considered damn close to a 50/50 proposition, receiving a near 2-1 tag makes this risk absolutely worth the reward.
Andrei Arlovski +136 over J. Barnett
The main event on this weekend?s card will feature two aging veteran heavyweights and if history shows us anything, a match between these two types should be a coin flip. Both men are well past their prime, are less powerful, less agile, and can survive much less damage. This fight most likely won't springboard anyone into contention but Alovski may get another top contender opportunity if he is able to cease the opportunity in Hamburg.
Perception is a heck of a thing. Entering this main event, Andrei Arlovski has been lit up viciously in his past two fights, suffering KO losses in each. What sticks out is that he was seen as a title contender just one year ago and now has slid down the rankings. The market is now believing that this could be it for the Pitbull. Fact is, the two opponents that knocked him out received immediate title shots and the first of which is the current heavyweight champion. Stipe Miocic and Allistar Overeem are now the top two dogs in the division and they both used Arlovski as a springboard into their pinnacle.
Since reentering the UFC in 2013, Josh Barnett has gone 2-2, posting wins vs. two fighters that are either done fighting completely, or on their last leg. Barnett?s win over Frank Mir in 2013 was a roaring return, as all the hype surrounding the 'Warmaster' Barnett, was realized early in the first round, earning the KO. The win over Roy Nelson in 2015, was a five-round decision win that earned him performance of the night honors. What we have seen from Nelson in the past few years has been less than impressive, as he is continually stacking up losses, and has clearly lost the sting out of his punches. Barnett's two losses have been to more talented competition, but his opponents are nowhere near the caliber than that of Arlovski's previous two. Being defeated by Ben Rothwell and Travis Browne inside the distance doesn't look too bad on paper, but neither has been very threatening to the top of the division, even though they have been close.
Arlovski presents a difficult matchup for Barnett. Andrei's speed and counterpunch ability will allow him to maintain distance and avoid the clinch for the most part. The grappling ability of Arlovski will neutralize Barnett's biggest strength in his two most recent UFC wins. Overall, Arlovski may get KO'd, and recent results have made many believe that it is the most likely outcome but to compare Josh Barnett with Champion Stipe Miocic or current Title Challenger Allistar Overeem is an absolute crime. These two have an equal shot at KO'ing one another, and the fact remains that Arovski's speed and pedigree greatly outweigh Barnett's while his grappling ability should keep Barnett from laying on him for five rounds. Dare we say it....wrong fighter favored, and once again, the value is on the underdog in the UFC's main event this weekend
10:30 PM CFB University of Phoenix, Glendale, AZ [205] BYU -1-115
09:00 PM SOC [26018] FC Dallas -170
07:05 PM MLB [958] Pittsburgh Pirates -187 ( J Nelson - R / I Nova)
07:10 PM MLB [959] Washington Nationals -132 (Roark/Gsellman)
07:05 PM MLB [970] Baltimore Orioles -145 ( C Sabathia - L / K Gausman)
09:05 PM MLB [975] Boston Red Sox -187 ( R Porcello - R / D Mengden)
1 unit bet pays 38 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-149, -37.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Over is 15-5-1 in ATL last 21 overall.
TEX are 44-18 in their last 62 home games....Texas is 6-1 in Holland home outings...Astros won 10 of last 13 games....Texas won 10 of last 11 home games
Chicago is 21-3 in last 24 home games
Over is 13-5 in New York?s last 18 games
Fulmer is 0-2, 7.59 in his last two starts; five of his last six stayed under....Detroit is 11-3 in his road starts...Royals lost four of last five games; last six KC games went over the total...Ventura is 3-0, 2.67 in his last five starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Royals are 7-3 in his home starts.
over is 11-4 in Mariners? last 15 games.
Cleveland is 13-3 in last 16 home games; five of Tribe?s last six games stayed under.
Over is 18-7-1 in ATL last 26 overall.
Umpires
Az-Col: Over is 11-5 in last sixteen Woodring games.
Hst-Tex: Under is 10-5-1 in last 16 Barry games.
Chi-Min: Under is 13-5-1 in last 19 Estabrook games.
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Braves +131
Two of the worst teams in baseball will square up at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday when the 52-83 Atlanta Braves take on the 60-74 Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta has been the hotter of the two teams lately though, and it defeated the Phillies 8-4 last night. I think this looks like a great price on Atlanta to notch another victory.
Vince Velasquez (8-6, 4.21) takes the ball for Philadelphia. He's 0-4 with a 5.76 ERA in his last eight starts (1-7 team record), and the 24 year old has been reached for 10 runs on 14 hits with five homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last two home starts. He's 0-1 in two starts against Atlanta this season while surrendering six runs on 13 hits through 12 innings of work.
The Braves turn to John Gant (1-3, 4.59 ERA) who will try to make a case for why he should be in the Atlanta rotation for 2017. Gant is making his first since returning from a left oblique strain that kept him on the disabled list for 58 days, but he has posted a 3.75 ERA in 24 innings of work on the road this season.
Pitching advantage Philadelphia, but then what? The team has lost eight of its last 10 games while Atlanta has won each of its last four and five of its last six.
Angels vs. Mariners
Pick: Mariners
It seems that those fans expecting Taijuan Walker to break out will have to wait at least until next season. It's not that the RHP and former first round draft pick (#43 overall in 2010) has been terrible, it's just that we still haven't seen a full season of the talent that Walker displayed prior to coming to the Majors. While his 4.19 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are both better than last season, Walker has struggled to find consistency, and his 4-9 record - while at least partially due to poor run support - is not even close to what it should be on a playoff contending team. The Mariners desperately need Walker to find the form tonight that he had in his only two home starts of June against the Indians (eight shutout innings with 11 KOs) and Orioles (6 1/3 IP, 4 H, and just 1 ER). Angels LHP Tyler Scaggs looked like a world-beater in July when he came up from AAA, posting a 1-0 record with no runs allowed in two starts that month. But he quickly fell apart in August with a 7.23 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in five starts. L.A. just traded away one its few reliable late innings relievers (Fernando Salas), so even if Scaggs pitches well early, the bullpen could blow it for him.
New York at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -140
Baltimore shut out New York 8-0 last night and now the Yankees have to face Kevin Gausman again after he blanked them for seven innings on Sunday with nine strikeouts and no walks. Gausman is 5-1 with a 2.48 ERA at home and he has been lights out against the Bronx Bombers giving up just three runs in 27 2/3 innings for a 0.98 ERA this year. CC Sabathia is 8-11 with a 4.31 ERA and was the losing pitcher in the 5-0 loss against Baltimore with the same pitching matchup. In his previous game against the Orioles on July 21, Sabathia was touched for four runs and seven hits in 6 2/3 innings in another Yankees loss. New York has lost seven of Sabathia's last eight starts within the division. Baltimore has won Gausman's last six home starts and the Orioles are 44-24 at home.
TAMPA BAY +140 over Toronto
Our attack on Toronto?s Marco Estrada is not going to end until the season does and as long as he continues to be overpriced. The story has not changed for Estrada, as he continues to fall behind in the count while getting hit hard almost every start. When Estrada gets through innings, it is due to luck driven factors like hard hit balls being hit right at people. Estrada?s extreme fly-ball rate will likely play better at this park than others but it matters not because he?s usually good for six warning track shots a game. Marco Estarda was banished to the bullpen in July 2014, after posting a 2.3 HR/9 during the first half of the season when a 17% HR/F rate met his 50% fly-ball rate. Nothing has changed but his luck.
Blake Snell has 72 K?s in 68 innings. He too, is a risk but he throws 95 MPH heat with life while inducing 16% swings and misses. Snell is a highly touted youngster that is prone to blowups but has the talent to thrive too. That projection all came together as he blew through three levels in 2015 and is on the cusp of being a top of the rotation starter. Snell?s advanced arsenal is one worth watching and backing when warranted. The Rays are a dangerous foe that is playing for keeps against these contenders in the AL East. We guarantee you that none of these contenders, Baltimore, Toronto, Boston or New York look forward to playing these Rays and anyone that follows this game closely understands why. Huge overlay.
San Diego +249 over LOS ANGELES
Luis Perdomo has been on our radar all season long and for good reason. Perdomo is underpriced every start because of his misleading 5.84 ERA. That ERA was the result of a horrible start for Perdomo, which was the due to a high 38% hit rate, low 58% strand rate, and very high 43% hr/f more than anything else. Perdomo?s underlying skills as a starting pitcher were good then and they still are. Perdomo?s 64% groundball rate is tops in the majors among pitchers with 100 or more innings. Over his last four starts, his ERA is a sneaky 3.04 with an xERA of 3.55. The Padres won the opener last night and they have also won five of Perdomo?s past eight starts. A pitcher like Perdomo cannot be offered a tag like this one when facing Rich Hill.
Rich Hill made his Dodgers debut on August 24 but has not pitched since due to a recurring blister problem. This past week, Hill was scheduled to start twice but was a late scratch both times. In his last start versus the Giants, Hill?s swing and miss rate was down from 13% on the year to 6%. He shut out the Giants for six innings but had a mere three K?s with two of those K?s occurring against pitcher Johnny Cueto. Take those out and Hill struck out one batter through six innings. We are suggesting that Hill, who relies on a sweeping curve to get swings, is now forced to change his grip on the ball. Remember, prior to finding something last year, Rich Hill was a minor league pitcher with chronic control problems. He?s 36 years old and has spent the majority of seven of his 11 seasons as a pro in the minors. That last start, despite being a good one on paper, combined with successive scratches raises the risk on Hill. Blister problems, a likely different grip on the ball, a nine-day layoff and chronic control problems his entire career is precisely the type of pitcher we?re happy to take back 2?-1 against. This line is insane.
Texas State vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio -21
Ohio is loaded for Frank Solich who is now the the most successful active coach in the MAC. The Bobcats have not had a losing season since 2006 and are loaded this year and will compete for the conference championship. Texas State is off a disappointing year that forced Coach Fran into retirement and return just 10 starters. This figures to be a slow rebuild for the Bobcats and the schedule maker didn't do them any favors opening them vs. ground and pound Ohio on the road. Lay the points with a home team that generally takes care of business when it's supposed to.
Texas State vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio -21
Ohio is loaded for Frank Solich who is now the the most successful active coach in the MAC. The Bobcats have not had a losing season since 2006 and are loaded this year and will compete for the conference championship. Texas State is off a disappointing year that forced Coach Fran into retirement and return just 10 starters. This figures to be a slow rebuild for the Bobcats and the schedule maker didn't do them any favors opening them vs. ground and pound Ohio on the road. Lay the points with a home team that generally takes care of business when it's supposed to.
Southern Miss vs. Kentucky
Play: Southern Miss +7
The CFB kicked off last week with a game that landed right on the Las Vegas Line, Cal winning by 20 over Hawaii. There are games Thursday through Monday this week, so buckle the chinstraps and let?s talk some action. This weekend I have a match-up I feel the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have not given enough credit to the underdog, and that team is Southern Miss. With 14 starters back, this is a team that again will contend for a conference championship, as they lost last year to a good Western Kentucky team in the title game in a shootout. Yes, it is SEC versus a mid-major conference, but this is not Wildcat Basketball, it is Wildcat Football and Mark Stoops is on the hot seat at Kentucky.
Southern Miss is a solid veteran team, and QB Nick Mullens (38 TD passes in 2015) is a flat out stud with 14 starters back from a conference division winning team. His offensive coordinator ironically is Shane Dawson, who Mark Stoops at Kentucky fired last year, and no doubt has some motivation to beat Stoops and knows the Kentucky team inside and out, and that is an advantage! Jay Hopsen, former So. Miss Defensive Coordinator takes over the reins at head coach at Southern Miss, and word is the transition has been seamless and Southern Miss is a well-conditioned team with experience, a rock solid RB in Ito Smith who gained over 1100 yards last year, and averaged 6.6 yards per carry.
The setup here is a veteran team with massive offensive potential on the ground and through the air catching big points, and that is always worth a long look. Add in the fact their QB Mullens is better than Kentucky?s Drew Barker, and the fact this is a young Kentucky team that will start on the OL and DL, 7 Freshman or Sophomores, and you have a perfect storm brewing Lexington this Saturday and the Golden Eagles will no doubt provide a very stiff challenge for Kentucky, even on the road.
I will not come out and say Southern Miss can upset the Kentucky Wildcats, but catching almost a TD on the Las Vegas Line is more than sufficient reason to grab the points and the underdog in this game. A Southern Miss win would not surprise me one bit.
Kent State @ Penn State
Pick: Penn State -20
The Penn State Nittany Lions always seem to have a very good defense, it is what they get out of their offense that typically determines how far they rise. They have a good man in Joe Moorhead that came over from Fordham that had the Ram's offense clicking. Add in the fact that the young front five for Penn State has gotten a year's experience under their belt, and could be a whole lot better this season. Saquon Barkley may benefit the most, as he eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground with an inexperienced front line. I'm surprised Paul Haynes has survived at Kent State with just nine wins in his first three years. He is surely on the hot seat to get something done. The good news is that he has nine starters back on offense, but the bad news is that group ranked #124 last season. The defense should be strong, but this is a club that is not built to play in the Big-10, and as good as the defense was last year they lost their opener 52-3 to Illinois. The history is perhaps very telling as the Golden Flashes are 0-13 SU vs. the Big-10 and 3-10 ATS, and have scored a grand total of one TD in their last seven vs. the Big-10, and have been out-scored 278-13! That is not a typo, 278-13! Enough said, the Nittany Lions roll, so play on Penn State.
San Jose St at Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -5
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane enter the second year of the Philip Montgomery regime and I think this team is poised for improvement following a 6-7 campaign. This program was a disaster area during Bill Blankenship?s tenure but Montgomery, in just his first year on the job, took the team from 2-10 to a bowl game berth. Senior quarterback Dane Evans is back to lead what should be a very good offense. Evans posted a 63% completion rate with 25 TDs and just 8 INTs and should be even better in 2016. The offensive line has four returning starters and they have plenty of playmakers at the skill positions to put up points in bunches. Tulsa is in need of improvement on defense which was their biggest issue last season. They return seven starters including four of their top five tacklers. The Golden Hurricane will no doubt be better against the run after getting carved up for 240 ypg. The d-line returns three starters and everyone starting along that unit is either a junior or senior. The linebacker corps has increased depth and experience and the secondary has six of its top eight returning.
San Jose State comes off a 5-7 season as they enter their fourth with Ron Carragher as head coach. They should have a competitive outfit in the Mountain West but I do have some concerns as they play their first game of the season on the road. I normally don?t overreact to running back departures but the loss of Tyler Ervin from last year?s squad is a big one. He was everything to the San Jose State offense and broke the school?s single season rushing record. Also note the ineligibility of senior receiver Tyler Winston due to academic reasons. Both players had a huge impact on the offense. Quarterback Kenny Potter looks to be a solid one and has dual threat capabilities but the defense could be an early season concern for the Spartans. They break in a new DC in former Eastern Michigan head coach Ron English. Even though the system is expected to remain largely unchanged (4-3 defensive scheme), there still could be a bit of an early season learning curve for that group. San Jose State looks weakest in the secondary and that is not where you want to be weak going up against Dane Evans and a strong Tulsa aerial attack. San Jose State lost a pair of their best corners from last season?s second ranked pass defense with Cleveland Wallace and Jimmy Pruitt departing. San Jose State started slowly last season and dropped each of their two September road games against Air Force and Oregon State; losing by 14+ points in both games. This is a reasonable price to lay with Tulsa (from the superior conference) at less than a touchdown at home.
New Mexico St vs. UTEP 8PM
Play: Over 60.5
The UTEP Miners return thirteen starters from last season?s team which includes their star RB Aaron Jones who was lost last season in their opener. The Aggies also return thirteen starters and add one critical addition in TCU transfer QB Tyler Matthews. UTEP has dominated this series of late winners of the last seven going 5-0-2 against the number but our interest in actually in the total. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 67.21 points in this matchup. Last year UTEP had fallen behind 44 to 30 before scoring a late touchdown with under a minute left to force overtime and eventually got the victory. Both teams have the ability to score forty tonight and we expect a high scoring affair. Since 2012 the Aggies have posted a record of 28-8-1 Over the posted total cashing for Over bettors at a rate of 77.8 percent of the time. They are 26-7 Over when installed as an underdog over that span and 16-3 Over when playing away from home. Finally we see the Aggies are 15-3 Over the last eighteen times they have been installed as a road underdog. We will not buck that trend here play the Over.
SMU at N. Texas
Play: SMU -9.5
If you follow my selections regularly you will sometime hear me refer to games as "hidden blowouts". They are "hidden" because they aren't so obvious of a mismatch to the untrained eye. One of those games this week could be happening in Denton, TX. North Texas finds itself in a downward spiral, just two years removed from a 9-4 bowl game winning season of 2013. A career assistant coach at many previous stops, Seth Littrell takes over the bumbling football program after a 1-11 finish in 2015. SMU meanwhile, was just a game better at 2-10 a year ago, but boasts 16 returning starters, including QB Matt Davis, who threw for 16 TD?s against just seven interceptions. The Mustangs are a 9.5-point favorite on the road, but won easily over the Mean Green last September, 31-13, while winning the yardage battle 444-240. Things could be much worse for North Texas in 2016.
BYU vs. Arizona
Play: BYU +1.5
Kind of an unusual setup at several levels on this opener between BYU and Arizona. First off, it?s not a home game for Arizona. The game is at Glendale, and while it?s been lined as a home/neutral for the Wildcats, I?m not sure that?s justified. BYU always travels well, and from what I?m gathering, Cougar Nation has already arrived and they?re going to be out in force for this game.
As for what else is unusual, BYU didn?t name its starting QB till this past week, and Rich Rodriguez is still not saying who will be under center for Arizona. My guess is that Anu Solomon starts as he?s the veteran, but that?s sure not a certainty. Taysom Hill will be the QB1 for BYU, and we?ll see if he?s lost anything due to all the injuries he?s incurred. My info is that he has looked sharp and flat out won the competition.
One big issue on the Arizona side for me is the lack of size on the defensive front. Three of the six guys who figure to see the most action are under 250 pounds. That?s almost unheard of these days, particularly at a major conference school. BYU has a big and experienced OL and I really feel as though there?s a chance for the Cougars to wear down the ?Cats if they commit to the run on a consistent basis.
The big worry is that it?s a debuting coach in Kalani Sitake who?s replacing a fixture in Bronco Mendenhall. But my concern is probably less than it might normally be as I am not a RichRod believer. So I?m going to bank on my pre-season projections, and those all show the Cougars as the better team. Not by a lot, mind you, but I?ve got BYU by a small margin on a neutral field across the board, I do make this a neutral site so no home field incorporated for ?Zona, and I?m getting a little bit from the oddsmakers.This figures to be an exciting game that could be high scoring, but the bet for me is BYU plus the small available points.
BYU / Arizona Under 60.5
Major changes going on at BYU with longtime head coach Bronco Mendenhall headed to Virginia and former Oregon State DC Kalani Sitake handed the reigns. Also new will be offensive coordinator TY Detmer who takes over for Robert Anae who followed Mendenhall to Charlottesville. Detmer has never coached at the collegiate level and plans to implement a more pro style approach compared to the spread, up-tempo attack ran under Anae. The move is interesting because it doesn't necessarily fit the skill set of veteran quarterback Taysom Hill who as we all know is ultra-dangerous using his feet. However, it may give Hill a better chance to stay healthy after missing time due to injury each of the last two seasons. Either way, the plan is to be more deliberate as stated by backup quarterback Koy Detmer Jr.
?Last year, we were trying to go real fast and catch the defense off-guard, trying to score a lot of points and get a lot of plays,? said backup quarterback Koy Detmer Jr. ?This year, we?re going to slow it down. We?re going to try to execute on each play more. With this offense, we?re going to try to put the defense in positions we want them to be in so we can get the look we want to run a play to get a good result. There?s a lot more manipulation. Ty?s going to be a mastermind up there calling plays. Ty will call a play and we look at our wristbands. No more crazy signs on the sidelines. It will be huddle up and go.?
On the flip side, Arizona isn't looking to slow down its pace. With quarterback Anu Solomon and running back Nick Wilson back, the offense is expected to put points on the board. But I look for big improvements on the defensive side of the ball from the Wildcats. Last year, thanks to a litany of injuries, Arizona allowed 6.29 ypp and 484.6 ypg in PAC-12 play. Head coach Rich Rodriguez went out and hired former Boise State DC Marcel Yates. He inherits a relatively "green" stop unit but one that is healthy and coupled with his "havoc" style of play should yield better results in 2016.
This is a game that will likely feature plenty of yards and points but I think with BYU's new offensive mentality and Arizona's fresh start on defense, there's far more potential for stops than had these two teams met up last season. The number has crept down some but I'd still look under at 60.5.
Ilir Latifi +180 over Ryan Bader
Ryan Bader deserves to be favored in this fight. He has fought the best of the light heavyweight division since he KO'd Keith Jardine in 2010. His resume includes fights vs. Tito Ortiz, Jon Jones, Little Nog, Rampage Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Glover Texeira, Ovince St. Preux, Rashad Evans, and Rumble Johnson. This may be one of the most impressive assortments of opponents for someone that has never held the championship belt. Compiling a 21-5 professional MMA record, 'Darth' Bader has been an absolute rock in the top-10 for most of his UFC career. In his past six fights, Bader has gone 5-1 with all of his wins coming by decision. He is a division I All American wrestler, and has been very successful utilizing takedowns to gain top control and grind frustratingly boring victories ever since his last knockout over some guy named Jason Brilz in 2011. Bader is an intelligent fighter, who knows how to keep out of danger and grapple his way to victory, however, when he his hit by a power puncher, history shows, that he doesn't have the chin to survive.
In February of 2016, Bader was pitted against Anthony Johnson and this fight was over before it began. Bader was rocked quickly and then ground and pounded to a TKO loss. In 2013, Bader fought Glover Texeira and was caught with a punch, and following a brief scramble, he was awarded a TKO loss. In the 2012 Bader vs. Machida, fight, Machida would catch Bader early in the second round and Bader would lose by TKO. The track record for Bader vs. power punchers comes with mixed results, as he was able to survive and grapple with OSP and defeat an old and tired Rashad Evans but his last three results may show that Bader's intense fight schedule over the past 10 years is starting to slow him down as well as the devastating knockout suffered earlier this year.
Ilir Latifi has begun his ascension up the light heavyweight ladder. In his first bout at 205lbs, Latifi was caught early in round one vs. Jan Blachowicz and knocked out. This was the only time Latifi had been knocked out since 2009, and showed his vulnerability vs. weight class at first glance but Latifi has reeled off three straight victories while looking very impressive in each. Following two first round knockouts vs. middling MMA veterans Hans Stringer, and Sean O'Connell, many believed that Latifi would continue this path of destruction at UFC 196 vs. Gian Villante. In what would be as surprising a result as Tate defeating Holly Holm, or maybe McGregor losing to Diaz, there was no knockout to be seen in the Villante/Latifi matchup. Instead, Latifi displayed his well roundedness, earning takedowns in rounds two and three and showing the division he wasn't just a free swinging KO fighter. On his way to a unanimous 30-27 decision win, Latifi was slotted into the rankings, and is now taking on a perennial top-10 fighter in Bader.
Bader has one way to win this fight and that is to out-wrestle Latifi. Currently, through 11 rounds of UFC fights, Latifi has yet to be taken down, sporting a perfect 100% takedown defense. Obviously Bader is a different animal than any fighter that Latifi has faced, but the fact remains, we don't know if Bader will have success, and if he misses on a takedown, his chin will be exposed in close vs. a very powerful puncher. The other unknown here is the state of Bader's head following his latest surge up the rankings that culminated in a devastating one-minute KO loss. While the physical toll is to be considered as well, the mental toll on getting five straight decision wins and being very close to a title shot just to have it shattered in such a quick fashion can be demoralizing and break a fighters confidence.
This line is suggesting Bader will perform the 'Dump and Hump' each round and bore the fans to death with a three-round decision win but there is so much risk with this fighter with a couple notable unknowns in this matchup. With Latifi looking to continue his wave of momentum into the top-10 and with what has to be considered damn close to a 50/50 proposition, receiving a near 2-1 tag makes this risk absolutely worth the reward.
Andrei Arlovski +136 over J. Barnett
The main event on this weekend?s card will feature two aging veteran heavyweights and if history shows us anything, a match between these two types should be a coin flip. Both men are well past their prime, are less powerful, less agile, and can survive much less damage. This fight most likely won't springboard anyone into contention but Alovski may get another top contender opportunity if he is able to cease the opportunity in Hamburg.
Perception is a heck of a thing. Entering this main event, Andrei Arlovski has been lit up viciously in his past two fights, suffering KO losses in each. What sticks out is that he was seen as a title contender just one year ago and now has slid down the rankings. The market is now believing that this could be it for the Pitbull. Fact is, the two opponents that knocked him out received immediate title shots and the first of which is the current heavyweight champion. Stipe Miocic and Allistar Overeem are now the top two dogs in the division and they both used Arlovski as a springboard into their pinnacle.
Since reentering the UFC in 2013, Josh Barnett has gone 2-2, posting wins vs. two fighters that are either done fighting completely, or on their last leg. Barnett?s win over Frank Mir in 2013 was a roaring return, as all the hype surrounding the 'Warmaster' Barnett, was realized early in the first round, earning the KO. The win over Roy Nelson in 2015, was a five-round decision win that earned him performance of the night honors. What we have seen from Nelson in the past few years has been less than impressive, as he is continually stacking up losses, and has clearly lost the sting out of his punches. Barnett's two losses have been to more talented competition, but his opponents are nowhere near the caliber than that of Arlovski's previous two. Being defeated by Ben Rothwell and Travis Browne inside the distance doesn't look too bad on paper, but neither has been very threatening to the top of the division, even though they have been close.
Arlovski presents a difficult matchup for Barnett. Andrei's speed and counterpunch ability will allow him to maintain distance and avoid the clinch for the most part. The grappling ability of Arlovski will neutralize Barnett's biggest strength in his two most recent UFC wins. Overall, Arlovski may get KO'd, and recent results have made many believe that it is the most likely outcome but to compare Josh Barnett with Champion Stipe Miocic or current Title Challenger Allistar Overeem is an absolute crime. These two have an equal shot at KO'ing one another, and the fact remains that Arovski's speed and pedigree greatly outweigh Barnett's while his grappling ability should keep Barnett from laying on him for five rounds. Dare we say it....wrong fighter favored, and once again, the value is on the underdog in the UFC's main event this weekend
