3:00 PM CFB [336] TOTAL u61.5 -110 (Duke vrs Pittsburgh University)
2:00 PM CFB [344] Charlotte +6.5 -110
2:00 PM CFB [345] Massachusetts +28-110
3:30 PM CFB [401] Missouri +17.5 -110
3:00 PM CBB [723] Youngstown State +4.5 -105
4:05 PM NHL [54] TOTAL u5-145 (New Jersey Devils vrs Los Angeles Kings)
1 unit bet pays 42 ....betdsi line .... evening parlay later
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
UMass +29
The UMass Minutemen head to Provo to play the BYU Cougars on Saturday in a game that will have little meaning to BYU as they became Bowl eligible last week and have already agreed to play in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. That's a done deal for the Cougars. As for the Minutemen they come off their bye week just looking to be competitive against a solid BYU club. We believe they have found a nice situation to do just that. With BYU not showing much interest in this contest, we believe they will set their sites on their in-state rivals Utah ST who they play at home next week. We see no reason for any motivation from the Cougars, especially with next week being Senior Day as well. It wouldn't surprise us if BYU got out to a 21 point lead that they will start resting starters in the second half. The good thing for us is that BYU is laying 29 at the time of this writing. U Mass ranks 51st in passing offense and they will go up against BYU and their 112th ranked pass D. So U Mass will get some points themselves. There is no doubt that BYU will score and are the better team. However we will take a team off the bye playing a disinterested HUGE favorite any day of the week. Adding to our selection we see that U Mass are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Middle Tennessee at Charlotte 2pm
Play: Charlotte +4.5
You can bet Charlotte has had this game circled since this season?s schedule was released. Last season, Middle Tennessee State destroyed Charlotte, 73-14. Getting whipped so embarrassingly last season ensures that we get Charlotte?s maximum effort for the full sixty minutes in this one.
As if they need any more motivation, Charlotte also knows they need to win their final two games of the season to become bowl eligible. No room for error.
Charlotte also has motivation for a very disappointing home loss to Rice last weekend. Charlotte was a double-digit home favorite, but lost 22-21. I?m guessing they were looking ahead to this huge revenge affair.
Middle Tennessee State has struggled since star QB Brent Stockstill went down with a broken collarbone. Backup John Urzua, a redshirt freshman, has struggled. As a result, MTSU has gotten blown out in each of their last two games despite being a sizable favorite in both contests. With MTSU already having collected their sixth win to become bowl eligible, there is little in the way of motivation for the visitor here.
Charlotte will be motivated for several different reasons, while MTSU figures to struggle once again due to lack of motivation and the absence of their star QB.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA Market Basket?
I?ll go shorter on details on a busy morning, but now that +9 is showing across all of the key precincts (Pinny has gone to 9.5) it is time to get in play with #335 Duke (3:00 Eastern). David Cutcliffe is on a 17-6 ATS run as an underdog the last four seasons, with 11 of those successes being outright wins, in particular Cutcliffe finding ways to win when the talent gap is not too wide.
That gap is not wide today. As noted in the Monday review this week Pittsburgh has managed to pull off a couple of key upsets this season but the Panthers are far from being a Pat Narduzzi team, the defense on pace to allow 5,000 yards. And it is not as though the defense has improved a the season progressed ? the last three weeks they have allowed 132 points and 1,720 yards. They?ll have a hard time getting a balanced Duke offense off the field, and will struggle to merely win the game, much less get a margin.
Indiana vs. Michigan 330pm
Play: Michigan -24
This line opened as high as 28 in Las Vegas. The number was adjusted when it was announced QB Wilton Speight would miss the rest of the regular season with a collarbone injury. HC Jim Harbaugh said as recently as Thursday morning that Speight may play. However, we highly doubt he'll be able to take the field on Saturday. John O'Korn is likely to start this week's game with Indiana and we believe the Wolverines' offense is in quality hands. As Harbaugh said, O'Korn exudes confidence and his teammates believe he can get the job done. You'll remember he threw for more than 3,100 yards in his first season at Houston, with 28 TD passes and 10 INTs. He's obviously surrounded by better talent than he was then, including no less than four RBs who have rushed for at least 405 yards each, led by De'Veon Smith, who has rushed for nearly 600 yards on the season. The U-M defense is the stingiest in CFB in total yards allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game, and points allowed per game. They're also strong against the run and we note that the Hoosiers are on a 2-9 ATS slide against teams that allow no more than 3.25 yards per carry. Indiana has allowed 108 points in their last three games, but won two contests thanks to the offense. We suspect they'll be unable to "keep up" in this one. Michigan enters on a 7-1 ATS run off a SU loss. And while they have Ohio State next, last week's loss to Iowa, and the fact they're still in the top-4 in the playoff rankings should keep them focused on the task at hand. I believe the line has been over-adjusted and I'm laying the points with Michigan on Saturday.
Indiana vs. Michigan
Play: Under 53?
The Michigan Wolverines lost last week in Iowa City, and they should get back on track Saturday in Ann Arbor. Indiana is definitely an improved team. The Hoosiers have made great strides on the defensive side of the ball.
Penn State ran for only 77 yards on 45 carries against this Indiana defense last week. Indiana allowed 5.22 yards per carry last year, but they are giving up only 3.74 yards per carry so far this year.
Michigan ranks first in the nation in total defense. The Wolverines are well-balanced on this side of the football, and Indiana isn't likely to be able to put too many long drives together.
A big key in this game will be the weather. The forecast calls for 20-25 mph winds with gusts to 35 mph. There will be a mix of rain and snow at times during the game. This means more running the football and conservative play calling. Take the under here.
Texas Tech / Iowa St Over 76 330pm
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Texas Tech Red Raiders hit the road to take on the Iowa St. Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, IA on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five road games and they have gone an excellent 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. They have also gone up and over the number in 11 of their last 16 games played in the month of November. The Cyclones have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday afternoon as they have gone 8-3 to the over in their last 11 games where they faced a team from the Big 12 and they have gone an impressive 6-2 to the over in their last eight games overall. Throw in the fact that the Red Raiders have gone over the total in 13 of their last 17 games following a game where they allowed 450 yards or more on offense and that the Cyclones are a perfect 7-0-1 to the over in their last eight games following a straight up win, and that's where we'll have our play as we expect this one to turn into a bit of a shootout on Saturday afternoon in Ames.
San Diego State vs. Wyoming 330pm
Pick: San Diego State
The Aztecs won their final 10 games of the 2015 season and opened with three wins in 2016, before falling apart in the 4th quarter of an Oct. 2 game at South Alabama. SDSU led 24-21 into the final period but after South Alabama took the lead early in the 4th, a quick series and short punt set up the Jaguars for another TD, less than four minutes later. South Alabama put the game away with an 80-yard ?pick six? later in the quarter. SDSU has rebounded since that loss with six straight wins, all in league play and enter with a commanding lead in the West Division of the MWC (in line to defend its MWC title).
Wyoming comes in 7-3 overall, including 5-1 in the Mountain Division, tied with Boise St (which plays Friday at home vs UNLV) and New Mexico, which plays Saturday at Colorado St. The Cowboys shocked the Broncos with a 30-28 home win back on October 29 but this past Saturday lost a triple-OT game to UNLV, 69-66 (third highest scoring game in FBS history). Wyoming allowed a ridiculous 401 yards rushing to UNLV and now faces SDSU, which features Donnel Pumphrey, who leads the nation with 1,779 yards rushing (6.6 YPC / 14 TDs) and sits just 347 yards away from breaking the all-time NCAA rushing record held by Wisconsin?s Ron Dayne (6,397).
Pumphrey turned in another stellar effort in last week?s 46-16 rout of Nevada, gaining 198 yards on 7.6 YPC. Even more frightening is that when Pumphrey needs a blow, there?s Rashaad Penny (784 yards on 7.8 YPC with 9 TDs), who out-did Pumphrey against Nevada, rushing for 208 yards in just 10 attempts! Wyoming has a terrific RB in Brian Hill (1,417 yards on 5.7 YPC with 16 TDs) but the SDSU running game is tough to top. Wyoming is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) at home, outscoring opponents 40.4-27.6 PPG but getting past SDSU will be a real test.
After last week?s awful defensive effort (if you?ll pardon the pun), Wyoming is now allowing 33.7 PPG (104th) on the season on 462.6 YPG (108th). In stark contrast, the SDSU defense allows just 15.2 PPG (7th) on 283.3 YPG (5th). The Aztecs have now won 19 of their last 20 games and still have a chance at earning a New Year's Six bowl bid. SDSU cracked the AP top-25 last week but not the CFP rankings. However, Boise St (20) and Western Michigan (21) are no locks to stay where they are. If SDSU wins out (especially if can beat Boise St in the MWC title game), the Aztecs just may be in line for a Cotton Bowl berth.
First things first. The Aztecs have won 17th straight conference games, so what?s one more, ?with room too spare!? Lay the points with the road favorite in this one.
Duke at Pittsburgh 3pm http://feeds.donbest.com/weather/we...2&homeTeamName=Pittsburgh+U&gameDate=20161119
Play: Under 63.5
Two Coastal Division schools take Heinz Field on Saturday for an ACC tilt. The Pittsburgh Panthers (-8, 63.5) host the Duke Blue Devils with a scheduled kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET that will be broadcast on ACC Extra. Both the Panthers (6-4, 3-3 ACC) and Blue Devils (4-6, 1-5) are coming off league upsets. Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi and his squad claimed a huge 43-42 victory over CFP ranked Clemson at Memorial Stadium. Duke took down North Carolina, 28-27, to earn their first ACC win of the year.
Narduzzi has been utterly stubborn about how his crew would defend this season. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator plays a strong defensive front with his backfield playing straight up man-to-man regardless of the oppositions talent or situation. The Panthers defensive secondary was blitzed by the Miami Hurricanes two weeks ago, in a 51-28 loss, and while they were not much better this past Saturday against the nationally ranked Clemson Tigers they found a way to overcame Clemson?s 630 total yards and earn the win. Offensively, the Panthers are solid and are balanced in their attack with experience at quarterback (Nate Peterman) and running back (James Conner).
The Blue Devils continue to improve defensively. Like the Tigers, Duke fell at home, 24-21, to a good Virginia Tech squad, but bounced back for a huge 28-27 conference win over the Tar Heels of North Carolina. Duke held the Tar Heels? offense in check in the second half of last weekend?s win and while they haven?t been successful overall in the win/loss column this season they have been in a position to win more than they have lost in closely contested affair. Head coach David Cutcliffe?s defense has been effective against high profile offensive squads. The Devils have battled to the end against the likes of Louisville, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech this season.
The weather on the east coast this weekend is beginning to represent winter. Heinz Field is expecting cooling temperatures on Saturday afternoon with rain turning to snow and gusty winds up to 20 m.p.h. in a venue that has a history of winds being difficult to navigate. It is one of the more temperamental stadiums in North America resulting in conditions that are tough to pass downfield and position field goal kicks through the uprights.
The UNDER has cashed at a 5-1 clip in the Blue Devils last 6 games overall, Duke is 18-6 to the UNDER in their last 24 games against teams with overall winning records and have seen their final scores come in UNDER the oddsmakers number 16 of their last 22 games coming off a straight up win.
Conversely, Pittsburgh has been involved in high scoring affairs this season. In their 10 contests this year the final score has exceeded the total nine out of ten games while Duke has gone south of the books closing numbers in eight of their ten events.
This ACC tilt won?t draw much national attention but it is important for both squads. The weather will prevent big plays through the air and when the wind is howling at Heinz Field on game day most coaches reinvent themselves making typical field goal range four-down territory.
Navy at East Carolina 4pm
Play: Over 66
The first thing bettors must look at for teams facing Navy and its triple option attack is their proficiency or lack thereof at stopping the run. In this instance, East Carolina has been abysmal against the ground game all season long. The Pirates are being gashed against the run on a repeated basis allowing 5.1 yards per carry and over 200 rushing yards per game which ranks 91st nationally. Navy rolled up 45 points and 415 yards on the ground when they faced East Carolina last season. In their last three games, Navy has put up 115 points combined against South Florida, Notre Dame and Tulsa and have gained 342 yards on the ground at 5.9 yards per carry clip. ECU?s defense has been on the field for a whopping 169 plays its last two games and this is not the defense with the personnel nor the freshness required to slow down Navy.
On the flip side, East Carolina has potential to put up their share of points in this game as well. The Pirates offense will be led by either Philip Nelson or Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Nelson was replaced in each of ECU?s last two games due to poor play but has also been battling a shoulder injury that he tried to play through. It is looking more likely that Minshew may be the starter with Nelson sitting out the last couple days of practice. East Carolina has registered 456 total yards per game over their last three contests and they face a Navy defense which has given up 525 total yards per game during that span which comes to an alarming 8.1 yards per play. The over is 4-0 O/U in this series between dating back 2011 and all of those games reached 66 points or more. I expect another high scoring affair on Saturday afternoon.
New Mexico vs. Colorado State 1015pm
Play: Colorado State -4?
Here?s what Head Coach Mike Bobo said last week, talking about his team?s mentality following the bye: ?It?s leadership of your football team, starting with me of setting the tone in today?s meetings and practice. And anything less than a championship practice is not acceptable. And we don?t accept it. I?d rather it come from the players than me. If it?s coming from the players, then we?ve got a chance to finish strong. If it?s coming from us, it?ll be a fight. This is the time of year where you?ve played eight games, you know, it?s a grind. And the mentally tough guys are the ones that are going to push through and have success late in the season. And that?s what I expect out of this football team.? The fact that the Rams came out and played a complete game against Fresno speaks volumes about that leadership.
Colorado State has been a solid under-the-radar moneymaker for their supporters, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a very sluggish first few weeks. It?s worth noting that they are coming off their three best offensive games of the year, including a pair of blowout wins and a hotly contested, spread covering loss as a road underdog. This team is clearly an undervalued commodity in the markets right now, even after their recent ATS successes.
The Lobos defense is not equipped to shut down Colorado State?s balanced attack. Yes, New Mexico is hot too, winners of five straight games, their longest streak in more than a decade. But every one of those wins (with one exception) came against a true bottom feeder ? the Mountain West is not exactly loaded in 2016. I give Bob Davie enormous credit for what he?s been able to accomplish in Albuquerque, but this back-to-back road game situation after a tight, physical three point win at Utah State last week is NOT a good spot for the road underdog.
Colorado State has won each of the last six meetings between these two teams, with the Lobos notching only one pointspread cover in defeat in those games. The Rams put up 58+ twice in the last three years against the Lobos defense ? New Mexico can handle one dimensional offenses fairly well, but balanced attacks consistently give them trouble. Look for the Rams to clinch bowl eligibility with a relatively comfortable victory on Sonny Lubick Field Saturday Night.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State -2
Mississippi State?s season is on the line in this one. Sitting at 4-6, the Bulldogs need to win out to become bowl eligible. That?s not the only motivating factor here. This is Mississippi State?s final home game of the season, which makes this one mean a little more. I also think we see a big effort after that embarrassing loss to Alabama last week.
I also have major concerns with Arkansas and just what they have left in the tank at this point in the season. The Razorbacks have played 7 ranked teams in their 10 games to this point, including 5 straight. They certainly looked beat up in last week?s game at home against LSU. A spot I thought they would play much better in, given LSU was coming off that crushing loss to Alabama.
I think a big key here is the Bulldogs should be able to get things going offensively. For Mississippi State?s offense to have success, they need to be able to run the football. That shouldn?t be a problem against the Razorbacks. Arkansas is ranked 102nd against the run (217.6 ypg) and are allowing 6.3 yards/carry. The last 4 times the Bulldogs have rushed for 200+ yards, they have scored 47, 38, 56 and 35 points.
Another factor here that I think gets overlooked with Arkansas is this being just their 3rd true road game of the season. Only the second true road game in SEC play. The only previous one came at Auburn, which they lost 56-3.
Arkansas at Mississippi St
Play: Over 59.5
This might appear to be just another football game to most weekend college football fan, but in truth, it is a game between two of the better teams in the FBS realm. Two SEC powers meet on Saturday night with kickoff scheduled for 7:00 p.m ET at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. On the surface it is an event between two teams attempting to climb out of the bottom of the SEC West. However, it includes an Arkansas team that defeated a ranked Florida Gators team just two weeks ago and a Mississippi State squad that battled and came out victorious against then No. 4 Texas A&M.
The Razorbacks have already earned enough wins on the season to be invited to a holiday bowl event but are come off a Week #11 affair, last Saturday, with a loss to one of the best in all of college ball, falling 38-10 to LSU. Arkansas?s Achilles is a defense that allowed nearly 400 total yards to an LSU offense that has been pedestrian at times this season. Offensive is their game day asset behind the arm of quarterback Austin Allen. The Hogs signal-caller has thrown for over 2,500 yards and has registered 20 touchdowns on the season. All-Conference tailback Rawleigh Williams III exceeded the magical mark of 1,000-yards last week against a solid Louisiana State defense and from a distance the best way to describe this 2016 Arkansas squad is inconsistent.
The Bulldogs laid an egg last week, this following their upset victory over the A&M Aggies. While that egg came against the No #1 team in college football, Alabama, the ?Dogs were not competitive in a 51-3 loss. Sophomore quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is one of the more efficient backers in the country. He has amassed 1,850 yards passing and thrown 16 TD passes. The dual threat signal-caller has also nearly rushed for 1000 yards and has eight touchdown via the ground. Like the Razorbacks the Mississippi State liability is a defense that allows 32 points per game.
The Over is 4-1 in Razorbacks last 5 games as a visitor and 35-16-1 in the teams last 52 games on natural grass.
The Bulldogs have gone Over the Total in their last four tilts overall and after a loss the following event for Mississippi State has cashed to the Over at an 8-2 clip.
In the last nine games between these two SEC foes the final score has exceeded the total in seven of those contests.
Stanford vs. California 530pm
Play: Stanford -10.5
The Stanford Cardinal have really turned their season around. They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They won 34-10 at Arizona as 3.5-point favorites and 52-27 at Oregon as 3-point favorites. Their only non-cover was a 26-15 win over Oregon State as 16.5-point favorites in which they were stopped on 4th and goal from the 1 late, otherwise they would have covered that game as well.
California has gone the other direction. The Golden Bears are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, and they haven't even been competitive in the losses. They fell 24-45 at USC as 20-point dogs, 27-66 at home to Washington as 19.5-point dogs, and 21-56 at Washington State as 17.5-point dogs.
The difference in this game is that Stanford is going to be able to keep scoring even when it gets a big lead because California simply cannot stop anyone. The Golden Bears have allowed 45 or more points in five consecutive games. They are giving up an average of 55.7 points and 662.3 yards per game in their last three games alone.
Christian McCaffrey is going to be in for a career day against this California run defense. The Golden Bears allow 283 rushing yards per game and a whopping 6.2 yards per carry this season. They gave up 474 rushing yards to Oregon State, 398 to USC, 287 to Washington and even 254 to a Washington State team not known for running the ball.
Stanford will be able to get some stop, which is also going to be a difference-maker. The Cardinal have allowed 10, 10, 10, 15 and 27 points in their last five games overall for an average of 14.4 points per game. This defense continues to play better as the season has gone on.
Stanford is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Cal. The Cardinal have won five of those six games by at least 13 points. Stanford is 9-1 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games with a turnover margin of +4 or better.
Arizona State at Wash -27 7:30 PM ET
The "layering" on this one doesn't get you close to this number, it is calling for a 45 to 18 type score. As a matter of fact, the Don Best past matchups don't show a single Washington straight up win going back as far as 2002 in this series. Add the fact that their is a huge look ahead for Washington and a key LB injured and out for the season and I'm starting to like Arizona Stat
ASU looks like a fit, it is just a matter of waiting it out to see if a +28 might appear, with the "style points" crowd already running this one up from -25. The Sun Devils will only be playing for the second time since October 29, which brings a nice level of freshness for this late in the season, and Chris Peterson has not need to do anything more than just get the win in pocket, and head on to Pullman for the Apple Cup on Friday.
I dont recall ever seeing such an outlier in conference matchups, ASU 10-0 in last 10 straight up as well as ATS and then calling for a 4 score blowout by the 0-10 team. I'm leery of trends but conference play gets my attention. Going back to 2002 probably doesn't mean that much but add in 3-0 the last 3 years and you have to think that Graham system matches up pretty well (it is 2-0 SU against Petersen).
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +9
A lot of talk in the media about the SEC West's domination over the SEC East which has been even more pronounced this season. And the gap is more than reflected in the pointspreads with Florida (arguably the "class" of the East) catching +14.5 at LSU, and this matchup, Ole Miss laying nearly double-digits at Vanderbilt. The Rebels have had a rocky campaign that has been littered with upper-tier opponents. Then there was the loss of starting quarterback Chad Kelly who proved to be one of the few elite passers in the SEC. Last week, in a very emotional spot, the Rebels came up with a monster effort (23 points in the fourth quarter) by beating Texas A&M on the road 29-28. Freshman quarterback Shea Patterson threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns as Ole Miss, at 5-5, kept its postseason hopes alive. Now they must hit the road for a second straight week to face a bottom feeder SEC East team and are being asked to win by double-digits. Keep in mind, the week prior, with Kelly, Ole Miss beat now 4-6 Georgia Southern at home by 10 with only a modest 441-401 total yardage advantage. And lastly, let's also not forget that the Egg Bowl is looming next week.
With four wins and two games in which they'll be an underdog, it's a longshot for Vanderbilt to reach the postseason. However, the Commodores continue to show the ability to stick around in games. They've stayed within this number in all six SEC games, including a recent 23-16 loss at Auburn. Obviously all but one of those games came against the East, but this weekend's foe isn't Alabama or even LSU. This is a prime flat spot for Ole Miss and one I recommend taking advantage of.
Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt 8pm
Play: Vanderbilt +10
After the Chad Kelly injury the Ole Miss faithful were ready to throw in the towell on a disappointing season. But last week Freshman Shea Patterson had an outstanding game against Texas A&M. Now the Rebels faithful and the betting markets are once again buying in on Mississippi. But keep in mind the opposition now has film on Patterson and the going won't be vso easy in week two.
Vanderbilt hasn't permitted more than 26 points to any SEC opponent this season. And while the offense at times has teally struggled, only Florida has shut them down completely. With a 5-4 spread record the Commodores always make it tough on the opposition and we expect this low scoring game to come right down to the wire.
FAU +8 over Old Dominion
At first glance the Owls appear to be a 3-7 cupcake primed to be a snack for the 7-3 Monarchs of Old Dominion. FAU has the complexion of a court jester while ODU enters with a staff and crown of royalty ready to trample a perceived inferior opponent. However, when gazing further into the numbers, there is a lot of upside with the Owls. You see, the Owls don?t give a hoot about Old Dominion?s record. The Monarchs have won five of their seven victories at home this season and sport a lowly 2-3 mark when they are away from cozier confines. In addition, Florida Atlantic has won their last two after losing seven straight over the span of the 2016-17 season. A team with a poor record this late in the season that hits its stride can be a tempest to deal with, as they have nothing to lose but still have plenty of wind in their sails. The Owls will enter this contest ?free-rolling?, looking to pick up a signature win to cap off an otherwise demoralizing campaign. Let it also be known that while FAU Is 3-7, they too could easily be 7-3 as they lost to FIU, Charlotte, Marshall and Ball State all by a touchdown or less. So while many may gaze at this fixture as all Old Dominion, the Owls of FAU are not going to be an easy out.
Upon studying and scrutinizing the resume of Old Dominion, their recent slew of victories against Southern Mississippi and Marshall may be enamoring and captivating. However, the Golden Eagles and Thundering Herd have long since thrown in the white flag on their respective seasons and Old Dominion was simply feeding off the scraps. Outside of their recent three game winning streak, the Monarchs own wins over UMass, UTSA, Charlotte and Hampton and none of those teams by any means are exceptionally better than the FAU team they are about to encounter. Again, three of ODU?s wins were attained at home with the exception of Charlotte. ODU?s three losses on the road were hideous, as the margin of defeats against WKU, Appalachian State and North Carolina State were 35, 27 and 24 respectively. The record may look good on paper but any true 7-3 team doesn?t lose against any form of solid competition in such egregious fashion. This invader has made a living off of beating up on cupcakes but FAU is not in that category. These are some pretty sweet inflated points based on some misleading results and we?re not about to pass them up.
Western Carolina +15? over MARSHALL
The Western Carolina Catamounts should have been named the Transformers because no team typifies the personality of deception more than this club. Western Carolina finished the 2015-16 season with a mark of 16-18 overall and with a 10-8 record inside the Southern Conference. From first glance, this visitor looks like a perennial cupcake that was an appetizer for many of the game?s bigger predators to prey upon. However, this is certainly not the case. The Catamounts put together a storied run on the back end of the 2015-16 campaign as they made it all the way to the Southern Conference semifinals before falling to the conference?s thoroughbred, Chattanooga, by just four points. WCU came in as a .500 basketball team while Chattanooga had already eclipsed 28 wins on the season. On their way to the semifinals, the Catamounts won seven of their last eight overall, beating the conference?s best teams along the way, including Wofford, Mercer and Furman. The Cats even notched a win over the aforementioned conference champion Chattanooga over that span, showcasing their ability to hang with and beat premium competition on a conference level. WCU would qualify for the CBI tournament as a result of their efforts and they would be sent off in a Battle of the Catamounts when they lost to Vermont by just five points.
To many, it may appear as if WCU just went on a run and peaked at the right time and since then have regressed back to the typical Western Carolina team that loses games more than they win. However, with four of their starting five returning from last season along with two key bench players back in the fold, there is plenty of opportunity to argue otherwise. The Cats opened up with an eyesore loss at Miami only to follow it up with a dominant win at home. Most recently, WCU fell against fellow conference cohort North Carolina Central by eight points in an early-season rivalry fixture.
Meanwhile, Marshall at 2-0 owns a win over the aforementioned common opponent in North Carolina Central by 12 points, which is perhaps the driving force of this market. The Herd finished 17-16 in 2015-16, squeaking by UTEP in the first round of the C-USA Tournament as a #3 seed before being sent off with authority by Middle Tennessee State in the follow-up. The Herd failed to qualify for a post-season tournament and more or less took advantage of teams they were supposed to be better than to win the games they did along the way. It is a far contrasting narrative compared to Western Carolina, who ended up being much better than its record suggested. Nevertheless, the amount of points here could be superfluous as the Catamounts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road affairs, signifying the markets' propensity for undervaling them.
RUTGERS +27 over Penn State
This one is a classic setup to take the points, as there is nothing but numerous factors working against the favorite here. Prior to the start of the season and a month into it when the Nittany Lions were 2-2, they were a complete afterthought in regards to winning the Big Ten but that is the unlikely position they find themselves in coming into this one. If the Nittany Lions merely have the best record among the three division co-leaders in the six combined remaining games, then Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh will watch from home as Franklin leads Penn State onto the field in Indianapolis as improbable Big Ten East champs. After defeating Ohio State, Iowa and Indiana in three of the past four weeks, Penn State very likely sees this game as a walk in the park and if there was ever a time to exhale and just show up in body, this would be it.
Out of nowhere, there is suddenly a lot of noise surrounding the Lions, and they'll be tasked with laying heavy weight on the road while concentrating mainly on mere survival. The opportunities to buy Penn State at favorable prices are long gone and now you?ll pay a massive premium to back them because of the aforementioned noise that surrounds them. The final factor is decaying team health. The Lions are not that deep just yet and a long season with high intensity is gradually wearing this team down. The offensive line, already a weakness, is of particular concern and the last time the Lions played with such poor health was in Week 4, when they lost 49-10 to the Wolverines. The danger signs of laying heavy weight on the road with an outfit who?s stock hasn?t been this high since the glory days just keep piling up. We can almost guarantee that Penn State will not cover both times in the final two weeks of the season because its stock is through the roof and so is the premium to pay to back them. If Penn State covers here, we'll be fading them next week too.
My college basketball freebie is on the Albany Great Danes, who host the Grand Canyon Antelope in an odd preseason game that pits a pair of scrappy mid-mid-majors.
The Danes are playing two games in as many nights, beginning with tonight's game against Grand Canyon, at 10,000-seat Mohegan Sun Arena, home of the WNBA's Connecticut Sun. Tomorrow Albany will play Brown in the same venue.
I think we're going to see plenty of vigor from this team, as it will be pumped to get some momentum going for this two-day run, as part of the eight-team Naismith Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament.
The headline team of the tournament is Duke, which plays Penn State at 12:30 p.m. today. And Albany-Grand Canyon is the nightcap. The Great Danes will not be outdone.
In the first game of the tournament, Albany upset Penn State on the road, 87-81. Granted, they also lost at Cincinnati, 74-51, Monday night. But with this one being close to home, I think the travel factor could effect how the Antelopes play.
Grand Canyon is 0-2, having lost to Penn State and Duke on the road; it will also play Louisville and Arizona, so the Lopes will be looking past the Danes.
Take Albany here.
Toronto +144 over MONTREAL
OT included. Montreal played last night in Carolina and fought like hell for 60 minutes in what appeared to be a look-ahead spot. The Habs deserved a better fate last night but they have dished out that same fate dozens of times to others that have outplayed them and lost over the past few years or ever since Carey Price arrived on the scene. Price sat last night but he?ll be back in the net tonight. Fading Price brings risk but the tag here on the Maple Leafs is far too fat to pass up on. Moving forward, tags like this on Toronto will be few and far between.
It is truly remarkable what the ?Three Wise Men? have accomplished in such a short time for the Maple Leafs. It?s also remarkable what a difference management makes. While others before them were tearing down the Maple Leafs year after year by way of bad trades, bad judgement or poor recognition of talent, Lou Lamoriello, Brendan Shanahan and Mike Babcock have built a present and future of great potential and promise in the span of 16 months. Toronto leads the NHL in Corsi for per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. The Maple Leafs have gone from an offensively challenged team last year to one of the most balanced attacks in the game. A guy like Nazem Kadri, who was relied on to produce the past two seasons has suddenly had a big weight taken off his shoulders and he?s now a third line winger that is producing points and chances every game. While the Maple Leafs have some work to do in the defensive end, they are slowly but surely getting better in that department too. Toronto has scored six goals in each of its last three victories over Philadelphia (6-3), Nashville (6-2) and Florida (6-1). The Leafs are rested, confident and in better form than the Habs and in this spot, we expect to get their best effort. Huge overlay.
Edmonton +111 over DALLAS
OT included. The Stars are coming off a 3-2 win in Colorado but it was an unimpressive effort. Dallas took an early 3-0 lead and instead of coasting and putting the banged up Avs away, they allowed Colorado to come within a goal of tying it. The Stars were outshot 36-22 and even coach Lindy Ruff said he was ?embarrassed? by the way they played. It was nothing new though, as Dallas has been outshot in six straight games and it has given up 30 or more shots against in each of its last nine games. The Stars have poor goaltending with their team's 3.28 goals against per game being the fourth worst in the league. The Stars are a great fade when favored, as their 3-6 record when favored will attest to.
After a Cinderella start to the season, it looks like the clock has struck midnight on the Oilers. Edmonton has lost five straight and Connor McDavid hasn't scored in 10 games. The five game losing streak combined with McDavid?s funk now provides us with an opportunity that we?re not about to miss. The Oilers are not playing poorly. Instead, they?re not getting their fair share of puck luck. The Oilers opportunities and chances have been just as frequent during this skid as when they were winning. Edmonton has outshot its last four opponents despite losing each game. That includes a 3-2 loss to these Stars eight days ago in which Edmonton fired away 42 shots and had a Corsi advantage of 46-29, and a possession advantage of 61% to 39%. The Oilers are on the verge of breaking out of this mini slump because of the hard work they put in and this is the perfect opportunity to do so. Dallas is a beatable team with weak goaltending and a weak defense which figures to bode well for a hungry Connor McDavid and company.
Winnipeg +145 over BOSTON
OT included. We?ll have plenty to say about the Bruins at a later date or when the time is right but that would not apply here. While we like what we?re seeing from the Bruins thus far, this one is all about playing value. In that regard, Boston has not done enough to warrant this price, nor have they done enough to suggest they are the superior team here. This is not about fading the Bruins. It is all about taking back prices like this on Winnipeg.
The Jets are coming off a 5-2 loss in Philly in what might be one of the more misleading scores of the year. The Jets dominated the first period by outshooting the Flyers 11-4 but Philly scored on its first two shots of the game to take a 2-0 lead into the first break. Winnipeg would go on to dominate the rest of the game too but a victory was not in the cards, as they run into a rarely hot Steve Mason while Connor Hellebucyk was way off his game. Prior to losing to Philadelphia, the Jets defeating Chicago (4-0), L.A. (3-2) and Dallas (8-2) among others and picked up points in seven of eight games. The Jets bring one of the NHL?s best and most dangerous lines to the rink every game. Their defense features a slew of solid, puck moving defensemen that also do a good job in limiting the opposition?s chances. The Jets rank eighth in Corsi against. The Jets have frequently made our slate lately because the market is still unaware of how dangerous this intruder is. Until the market catches up or until the Jets show us something different, we?ll continue to play them when it?s warranted like it is here.
Albert Morales by knockout/TKO
Thomas Almeida is a great offensive fighter, but as we saw in his last bout, his defense is not a strength and neither is his chin. Obviously Almeida will be out for blood this time around, but an increase in aggression also increases his risk of getting flatlined again. In Albert Morales, we have a fighter who displays absolutely zero fear of their opponent and one who will be swinging for the fences from the moment the opening bell hits. While it's not incredibly probable Morales wins the fight, if he does, it's going to be by knockout so I just couldn't resist the Morales by knockout/TKO prop at (+507).
2:00 PM CFB [344] Charlotte +6.5 -110
2:00 PM CFB [345] Massachusetts +28-110
3:30 PM CFB [401] Missouri +17.5 -110
3:00 PM CBB [723] Youngstown State +4.5 -105
4:05 PM NHL [54] TOTAL u5-145 (New Jersey Devils vrs Los Angeles Kings)
1 unit bet pays 42 ....betdsi line .... evening parlay later
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
UMass +29
The UMass Minutemen head to Provo to play the BYU Cougars on Saturday in a game that will have little meaning to BYU as they became Bowl eligible last week and have already agreed to play in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. That's a done deal for the Cougars. As for the Minutemen they come off their bye week just looking to be competitive against a solid BYU club. We believe they have found a nice situation to do just that. With BYU not showing much interest in this contest, we believe they will set their sites on their in-state rivals Utah ST who they play at home next week. We see no reason for any motivation from the Cougars, especially with next week being Senior Day as well. It wouldn't surprise us if BYU got out to a 21 point lead that they will start resting starters in the second half. The good thing for us is that BYU is laying 29 at the time of this writing. U Mass ranks 51st in passing offense and they will go up against BYU and their 112th ranked pass D. So U Mass will get some points themselves. There is no doubt that BYU will score and are the better team. However we will take a team off the bye playing a disinterested HUGE favorite any day of the week. Adding to our selection we see that U Mass are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Middle Tennessee at Charlotte 2pm
Play: Charlotte +4.5
You can bet Charlotte has had this game circled since this season?s schedule was released. Last season, Middle Tennessee State destroyed Charlotte, 73-14. Getting whipped so embarrassingly last season ensures that we get Charlotte?s maximum effort for the full sixty minutes in this one.
As if they need any more motivation, Charlotte also knows they need to win their final two games of the season to become bowl eligible. No room for error.
Charlotte also has motivation for a very disappointing home loss to Rice last weekend. Charlotte was a double-digit home favorite, but lost 22-21. I?m guessing they were looking ahead to this huge revenge affair.
Middle Tennessee State has struggled since star QB Brent Stockstill went down with a broken collarbone. Backup John Urzua, a redshirt freshman, has struggled. As a result, MTSU has gotten blown out in each of their last two games despite being a sizable favorite in both contests. With MTSU already having collected their sixth win to become bowl eligible, there is little in the way of motivation for the visitor here.
Charlotte will be motivated for several different reasons, while MTSU figures to struggle once again due to lack of motivation and the absence of their star QB.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA Market Basket?
I?ll go shorter on details on a busy morning, but now that +9 is showing across all of the key precincts (Pinny has gone to 9.5) it is time to get in play with #335 Duke (3:00 Eastern). David Cutcliffe is on a 17-6 ATS run as an underdog the last four seasons, with 11 of those successes being outright wins, in particular Cutcliffe finding ways to win when the talent gap is not too wide.
That gap is not wide today. As noted in the Monday review this week Pittsburgh has managed to pull off a couple of key upsets this season but the Panthers are far from being a Pat Narduzzi team, the defense on pace to allow 5,000 yards. And it is not as though the defense has improved a the season progressed ? the last three weeks they have allowed 132 points and 1,720 yards. They?ll have a hard time getting a balanced Duke offense off the field, and will struggle to merely win the game, much less get a margin.
Indiana vs. Michigan 330pm
Play: Michigan -24
This line opened as high as 28 in Las Vegas. The number was adjusted when it was announced QB Wilton Speight would miss the rest of the regular season with a collarbone injury. HC Jim Harbaugh said as recently as Thursday morning that Speight may play. However, we highly doubt he'll be able to take the field on Saturday. John O'Korn is likely to start this week's game with Indiana and we believe the Wolverines' offense is in quality hands. As Harbaugh said, O'Korn exudes confidence and his teammates believe he can get the job done. You'll remember he threw for more than 3,100 yards in his first season at Houston, with 28 TD passes and 10 INTs. He's obviously surrounded by better talent than he was then, including no less than four RBs who have rushed for at least 405 yards each, led by De'Veon Smith, who has rushed for nearly 600 yards on the season. The U-M defense is the stingiest in CFB in total yards allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game, and points allowed per game. They're also strong against the run and we note that the Hoosiers are on a 2-9 ATS slide against teams that allow no more than 3.25 yards per carry. Indiana has allowed 108 points in their last three games, but won two contests thanks to the offense. We suspect they'll be unable to "keep up" in this one. Michigan enters on a 7-1 ATS run off a SU loss. And while they have Ohio State next, last week's loss to Iowa, and the fact they're still in the top-4 in the playoff rankings should keep them focused on the task at hand. I believe the line has been over-adjusted and I'm laying the points with Michigan on Saturday.
Indiana vs. Michigan
Play: Under 53?
The Michigan Wolverines lost last week in Iowa City, and they should get back on track Saturday in Ann Arbor. Indiana is definitely an improved team. The Hoosiers have made great strides on the defensive side of the ball.
Penn State ran for only 77 yards on 45 carries against this Indiana defense last week. Indiana allowed 5.22 yards per carry last year, but they are giving up only 3.74 yards per carry so far this year.
Michigan ranks first in the nation in total defense. The Wolverines are well-balanced on this side of the football, and Indiana isn't likely to be able to put too many long drives together.
A big key in this game will be the weather. The forecast calls for 20-25 mph winds with gusts to 35 mph. There will be a mix of rain and snow at times during the game. This means more running the football and conservative play calling. Take the under here.
Texas Tech / Iowa St Over 76 330pm
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Texas Tech Red Raiders hit the road to take on the Iowa St. Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, IA on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five road games and they have gone an excellent 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. They have also gone up and over the number in 11 of their last 16 games played in the month of November. The Cyclones have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday afternoon as they have gone 8-3 to the over in their last 11 games where they faced a team from the Big 12 and they have gone an impressive 6-2 to the over in their last eight games overall. Throw in the fact that the Red Raiders have gone over the total in 13 of their last 17 games following a game where they allowed 450 yards or more on offense and that the Cyclones are a perfect 7-0-1 to the over in their last eight games following a straight up win, and that's where we'll have our play as we expect this one to turn into a bit of a shootout on Saturday afternoon in Ames.
San Diego State vs. Wyoming 330pm
Pick: San Diego State
The Aztecs won their final 10 games of the 2015 season and opened with three wins in 2016, before falling apart in the 4th quarter of an Oct. 2 game at South Alabama. SDSU led 24-21 into the final period but after South Alabama took the lead early in the 4th, a quick series and short punt set up the Jaguars for another TD, less than four minutes later. South Alabama put the game away with an 80-yard ?pick six? later in the quarter. SDSU has rebounded since that loss with six straight wins, all in league play and enter with a commanding lead in the West Division of the MWC (in line to defend its MWC title).
Wyoming comes in 7-3 overall, including 5-1 in the Mountain Division, tied with Boise St (which plays Friday at home vs UNLV) and New Mexico, which plays Saturday at Colorado St. The Cowboys shocked the Broncos with a 30-28 home win back on October 29 but this past Saturday lost a triple-OT game to UNLV, 69-66 (third highest scoring game in FBS history). Wyoming allowed a ridiculous 401 yards rushing to UNLV and now faces SDSU, which features Donnel Pumphrey, who leads the nation with 1,779 yards rushing (6.6 YPC / 14 TDs) and sits just 347 yards away from breaking the all-time NCAA rushing record held by Wisconsin?s Ron Dayne (6,397).
Pumphrey turned in another stellar effort in last week?s 46-16 rout of Nevada, gaining 198 yards on 7.6 YPC. Even more frightening is that when Pumphrey needs a blow, there?s Rashaad Penny (784 yards on 7.8 YPC with 9 TDs), who out-did Pumphrey against Nevada, rushing for 208 yards in just 10 attempts! Wyoming has a terrific RB in Brian Hill (1,417 yards on 5.7 YPC with 16 TDs) but the SDSU running game is tough to top. Wyoming is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) at home, outscoring opponents 40.4-27.6 PPG but getting past SDSU will be a real test.
After last week?s awful defensive effort (if you?ll pardon the pun), Wyoming is now allowing 33.7 PPG (104th) on the season on 462.6 YPG (108th). In stark contrast, the SDSU defense allows just 15.2 PPG (7th) on 283.3 YPG (5th). The Aztecs have now won 19 of their last 20 games and still have a chance at earning a New Year's Six bowl bid. SDSU cracked the AP top-25 last week but not the CFP rankings. However, Boise St (20) and Western Michigan (21) are no locks to stay where they are. If SDSU wins out (especially if can beat Boise St in the MWC title game), the Aztecs just may be in line for a Cotton Bowl berth.
First things first. The Aztecs have won 17th straight conference games, so what?s one more, ?with room too spare!? Lay the points with the road favorite in this one.
Duke at Pittsburgh 3pm http://feeds.donbest.com/weather/we...2&homeTeamName=Pittsburgh+U&gameDate=20161119
Play: Under 63.5
Two Coastal Division schools take Heinz Field on Saturday for an ACC tilt. The Pittsburgh Panthers (-8, 63.5) host the Duke Blue Devils with a scheduled kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET that will be broadcast on ACC Extra. Both the Panthers (6-4, 3-3 ACC) and Blue Devils (4-6, 1-5) are coming off league upsets. Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi and his squad claimed a huge 43-42 victory over CFP ranked Clemson at Memorial Stadium. Duke took down North Carolina, 28-27, to earn their first ACC win of the year.
Narduzzi has been utterly stubborn about how his crew would defend this season. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator plays a strong defensive front with his backfield playing straight up man-to-man regardless of the oppositions talent or situation. The Panthers defensive secondary was blitzed by the Miami Hurricanes two weeks ago, in a 51-28 loss, and while they were not much better this past Saturday against the nationally ranked Clemson Tigers they found a way to overcame Clemson?s 630 total yards and earn the win. Offensively, the Panthers are solid and are balanced in their attack with experience at quarterback (Nate Peterman) and running back (James Conner).
The Blue Devils continue to improve defensively. Like the Tigers, Duke fell at home, 24-21, to a good Virginia Tech squad, but bounced back for a huge 28-27 conference win over the Tar Heels of North Carolina. Duke held the Tar Heels? offense in check in the second half of last weekend?s win and while they haven?t been successful overall in the win/loss column this season they have been in a position to win more than they have lost in closely contested affair. Head coach David Cutcliffe?s defense has been effective against high profile offensive squads. The Devils have battled to the end against the likes of Louisville, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech this season.
The weather on the east coast this weekend is beginning to represent winter. Heinz Field is expecting cooling temperatures on Saturday afternoon with rain turning to snow and gusty winds up to 20 m.p.h. in a venue that has a history of winds being difficult to navigate. It is one of the more temperamental stadiums in North America resulting in conditions that are tough to pass downfield and position field goal kicks through the uprights.
The UNDER has cashed at a 5-1 clip in the Blue Devils last 6 games overall, Duke is 18-6 to the UNDER in their last 24 games against teams with overall winning records and have seen their final scores come in UNDER the oddsmakers number 16 of their last 22 games coming off a straight up win.
Conversely, Pittsburgh has been involved in high scoring affairs this season. In their 10 contests this year the final score has exceeded the total nine out of ten games while Duke has gone south of the books closing numbers in eight of their ten events.
This ACC tilt won?t draw much national attention but it is important for both squads. The weather will prevent big plays through the air and when the wind is howling at Heinz Field on game day most coaches reinvent themselves making typical field goal range four-down territory.
Navy at East Carolina 4pm
Play: Over 66
The first thing bettors must look at for teams facing Navy and its triple option attack is their proficiency or lack thereof at stopping the run. In this instance, East Carolina has been abysmal against the ground game all season long. The Pirates are being gashed against the run on a repeated basis allowing 5.1 yards per carry and over 200 rushing yards per game which ranks 91st nationally. Navy rolled up 45 points and 415 yards on the ground when they faced East Carolina last season. In their last three games, Navy has put up 115 points combined against South Florida, Notre Dame and Tulsa and have gained 342 yards on the ground at 5.9 yards per carry clip. ECU?s defense has been on the field for a whopping 169 plays its last two games and this is not the defense with the personnel nor the freshness required to slow down Navy.
On the flip side, East Carolina has potential to put up their share of points in this game as well. The Pirates offense will be led by either Philip Nelson or Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Nelson was replaced in each of ECU?s last two games due to poor play but has also been battling a shoulder injury that he tried to play through. It is looking more likely that Minshew may be the starter with Nelson sitting out the last couple days of practice. East Carolina has registered 456 total yards per game over their last three contests and they face a Navy defense which has given up 525 total yards per game during that span which comes to an alarming 8.1 yards per play. The over is 4-0 O/U in this series between dating back 2011 and all of those games reached 66 points or more. I expect another high scoring affair on Saturday afternoon.
New Mexico vs. Colorado State 1015pm
Play: Colorado State -4?
Here?s what Head Coach Mike Bobo said last week, talking about his team?s mentality following the bye: ?It?s leadership of your football team, starting with me of setting the tone in today?s meetings and practice. And anything less than a championship practice is not acceptable. And we don?t accept it. I?d rather it come from the players than me. If it?s coming from the players, then we?ve got a chance to finish strong. If it?s coming from us, it?ll be a fight. This is the time of year where you?ve played eight games, you know, it?s a grind. And the mentally tough guys are the ones that are going to push through and have success late in the season. And that?s what I expect out of this football team.? The fact that the Rams came out and played a complete game against Fresno speaks volumes about that leadership.
Colorado State has been a solid under-the-radar moneymaker for their supporters, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a very sluggish first few weeks. It?s worth noting that they are coming off their three best offensive games of the year, including a pair of blowout wins and a hotly contested, spread covering loss as a road underdog. This team is clearly an undervalued commodity in the markets right now, even after their recent ATS successes.
The Lobos defense is not equipped to shut down Colorado State?s balanced attack. Yes, New Mexico is hot too, winners of five straight games, their longest streak in more than a decade. But every one of those wins (with one exception) came against a true bottom feeder ? the Mountain West is not exactly loaded in 2016. I give Bob Davie enormous credit for what he?s been able to accomplish in Albuquerque, but this back-to-back road game situation after a tight, physical three point win at Utah State last week is NOT a good spot for the road underdog.
Colorado State has won each of the last six meetings between these two teams, with the Lobos notching only one pointspread cover in defeat in those games. The Rams put up 58+ twice in the last three years against the Lobos defense ? New Mexico can handle one dimensional offenses fairly well, but balanced attacks consistently give them trouble. Look for the Rams to clinch bowl eligibility with a relatively comfortable victory on Sonny Lubick Field Saturday Night.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State -2
Mississippi State?s season is on the line in this one. Sitting at 4-6, the Bulldogs need to win out to become bowl eligible. That?s not the only motivating factor here. This is Mississippi State?s final home game of the season, which makes this one mean a little more. I also think we see a big effort after that embarrassing loss to Alabama last week.
I also have major concerns with Arkansas and just what they have left in the tank at this point in the season. The Razorbacks have played 7 ranked teams in their 10 games to this point, including 5 straight. They certainly looked beat up in last week?s game at home against LSU. A spot I thought they would play much better in, given LSU was coming off that crushing loss to Alabama.
I think a big key here is the Bulldogs should be able to get things going offensively. For Mississippi State?s offense to have success, they need to be able to run the football. That shouldn?t be a problem against the Razorbacks. Arkansas is ranked 102nd against the run (217.6 ypg) and are allowing 6.3 yards/carry. The last 4 times the Bulldogs have rushed for 200+ yards, they have scored 47, 38, 56 and 35 points.
Another factor here that I think gets overlooked with Arkansas is this being just their 3rd true road game of the season. Only the second true road game in SEC play. The only previous one came at Auburn, which they lost 56-3.
Arkansas at Mississippi St
Play: Over 59.5
This might appear to be just another football game to most weekend college football fan, but in truth, it is a game between two of the better teams in the FBS realm. Two SEC powers meet on Saturday night with kickoff scheduled for 7:00 p.m ET at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. On the surface it is an event between two teams attempting to climb out of the bottom of the SEC West. However, it includes an Arkansas team that defeated a ranked Florida Gators team just two weeks ago and a Mississippi State squad that battled and came out victorious against then No. 4 Texas A&M.
The Razorbacks have already earned enough wins on the season to be invited to a holiday bowl event but are come off a Week #11 affair, last Saturday, with a loss to one of the best in all of college ball, falling 38-10 to LSU. Arkansas?s Achilles is a defense that allowed nearly 400 total yards to an LSU offense that has been pedestrian at times this season. Offensive is their game day asset behind the arm of quarterback Austin Allen. The Hogs signal-caller has thrown for over 2,500 yards and has registered 20 touchdowns on the season. All-Conference tailback Rawleigh Williams III exceeded the magical mark of 1,000-yards last week against a solid Louisiana State defense and from a distance the best way to describe this 2016 Arkansas squad is inconsistent.
The Bulldogs laid an egg last week, this following their upset victory over the A&M Aggies. While that egg came against the No #1 team in college football, Alabama, the ?Dogs were not competitive in a 51-3 loss. Sophomore quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is one of the more efficient backers in the country. He has amassed 1,850 yards passing and thrown 16 TD passes. The dual threat signal-caller has also nearly rushed for 1000 yards and has eight touchdown via the ground. Like the Razorbacks the Mississippi State liability is a defense that allows 32 points per game.
The Over is 4-1 in Razorbacks last 5 games as a visitor and 35-16-1 in the teams last 52 games on natural grass.
The Bulldogs have gone Over the Total in their last four tilts overall and after a loss the following event for Mississippi State has cashed to the Over at an 8-2 clip.
In the last nine games between these two SEC foes the final score has exceeded the total in seven of those contests.
Stanford vs. California 530pm
Play: Stanford -10.5
The Stanford Cardinal have really turned their season around. They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They won 34-10 at Arizona as 3.5-point favorites and 52-27 at Oregon as 3-point favorites. Their only non-cover was a 26-15 win over Oregon State as 16.5-point favorites in which they were stopped on 4th and goal from the 1 late, otherwise they would have covered that game as well.
California has gone the other direction. The Golden Bears are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, and they haven't even been competitive in the losses. They fell 24-45 at USC as 20-point dogs, 27-66 at home to Washington as 19.5-point dogs, and 21-56 at Washington State as 17.5-point dogs.
The difference in this game is that Stanford is going to be able to keep scoring even when it gets a big lead because California simply cannot stop anyone. The Golden Bears have allowed 45 or more points in five consecutive games. They are giving up an average of 55.7 points and 662.3 yards per game in their last three games alone.
Christian McCaffrey is going to be in for a career day against this California run defense. The Golden Bears allow 283 rushing yards per game and a whopping 6.2 yards per carry this season. They gave up 474 rushing yards to Oregon State, 398 to USC, 287 to Washington and even 254 to a Washington State team not known for running the ball.
Stanford will be able to get some stop, which is also going to be a difference-maker. The Cardinal have allowed 10, 10, 10, 15 and 27 points in their last five games overall for an average of 14.4 points per game. This defense continues to play better as the season has gone on.
Stanford is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Cal. The Cardinal have won five of those six games by at least 13 points. Stanford is 9-1 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games with a turnover margin of +4 or better.
Arizona State at Wash -27 7:30 PM ET
The "layering" on this one doesn't get you close to this number, it is calling for a 45 to 18 type score. As a matter of fact, the Don Best past matchups don't show a single Washington straight up win going back as far as 2002 in this series. Add the fact that their is a huge look ahead for Washington and a key LB injured and out for the season and I'm starting to like Arizona Stat
ASU looks like a fit, it is just a matter of waiting it out to see if a +28 might appear, with the "style points" crowd already running this one up from -25. The Sun Devils will only be playing for the second time since October 29, which brings a nice level of freshness for this late in the season, and Chris Peterson has not need to do anything more than just get the win in pocket, and head on to Pullman for the Apple Cup on Friday.
I dont recall ever seeing such an outlier in conference matchups, ASU 10-0 in last 10 straight up as well as ATS and then calling for a 4 score blowout by the 0-10 team. I'm leery of trends but conference play gets my attention. Going back to 2002 probably doesn't mean that much but add in 3-0 the last 3 years and you have to think that Graham system matches up pretty well (it is 2-0 SU against Petersen).
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +9
A lot of talk in the media about the SEC West's domination over the SEC East which has been even more pronounced this season. And the gap is more than reflected in the pointspreads with Florida (arguably the "class" of the East) catching +14.5 at LSU, and this matchup, Ole Miss laying nearly double-digits at Vanderbilt. The Rebels have had a rocky campaign that has been littered with upper-tier opponents. Then there was the loss of starting quarterback Chad Kelly who proved to be one of the few elite passers in the SEC. Last week, in a very emotional spot, the Rebels came up with a monster effort (23 points in the fourth quarter) by beating Texas A&M on the road 29-28. Freshman quarterback Shea Patterson threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns as Ole Miss, at 5-5, kept its postseason hopes alive. Now they must hit the road for a second straight week to face a bottom feeder SEC East team and are being asked to win by double-digits. Keep in mind, the week prior, with Kelly, Ole Miss beat now 4-6 Georgia Southern at home by 10 with only a modest 441-401 total yardage advantage. And lastly, let's also not forget that the Egg Bowl is looming next week.
With four wins and two games in which they'll be an underdog, it's a longshot for Vanderbilt to reach the postseason. However, the Commodores continue to show the ability to stick around in games. They've stayed within this number in all six SEC games, including a recent 23-16 loss at Auburn. Obviously all but one of those games came against the East, but this weekend's foe isn't Alabama or even LSU. This is a prime flat spot for Ole Miss and one I recommend taking advantage of.
Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt 8pm
Play: Vanderbilt +10
After the Chad Kelly injury the Ole Miss faithful were ready to throw in the towell on a disappointing season. But last week Freshman Shea Patterson had an outstanding game against Texas A&M. Now the Rebels faithful and the betting markets are once again buying in on Mississippi. But keep in mind the opposition now has film on Patterson and the going won't be vso easy in week two.
Vanderbilt hasn't permitted more than 26 points to any SEC opponent this season. And while the offense at times has teally struggled, only Florida has shut them down completely. With a 5-4 spread record the Commodores always make it tough on the opposition and we expect this low scoring game to come right down to the wire.
FAU +8 over Old Dominion
At first glance the Owls appear to be a 3-7 cupcake primed to be a snack for the 7-3 Monarchs of Old Dominion. FAU has the complexion of a court jester while ODU enters with a staff and crown of royalty ready to trample a perceived inferior opponent. However, when gazing further into the numbers, there is a lot of upside with the Owls. You see, the Owls don?t give a hoot about Old Dominion?s record. The Monarchs have won five of their seven victories at home this season and sport a lowly 2-3 mark when they are away from cozier confines. In addition, Florida Atlantic has won their last two after losing seven straight over the span of the 2016-17 season. A team with a poor record this late in the season that hits its stride can be a tempest to deal with, as they have nothing to lose but still have plenty of wind in their sails. The Owls will enter this contest ?free-rolling?, looking to pick up a signature win to cap off an otherwise demoralizing campaign. Let it also be known that while FAU Is 3-7, they too could easily be 7-3 as they lost to FIU, Charlotte, Marshall and Ball State all by a touchdown or less. So while many may gaze at this fixture as all Old Dominion, the Owls of FAU are not going to be an easy out.
Upon studying and scrutinizing the resume of Old Dominion, their recent slew of victories against Southern Mississippi and Marshall may be enamoring and captivating. However, the Golden Eagles and Thundering Herd have long since thrown in the white flag on their respective seasons and Old Dominion was simply feeding off the scraps. Outside of their recent three game winning streak, the Monarchs own wins over UMass, UTSA, Charlotte and Hampton and none of those teams by any means are exceptionally better than the FAU team they are about to encounter. Again, three of ODU?s wins were attained at home with the exception of Charlotte. ODU?s three losses on the road were hideous, as the margin of defeats against WKU, Appalachian State and North Carolina State were 35, 27 and 24 respectively. The record may look good on paper but any true 7-3 team doesn?t lose against any form of solid competition in such egregious fashion. This invader has made a living off of beating up on cupcakes but FAU is not in that category. These are some pretty sweet inflated points based on some misleading results and we?re not about to pass them up.
Western Carolina +15? over MARSHALL
The Western Carolina Catamounts should have been named the Transformers because no team typifies the personality of deception more than this club. Western Carolina finished the 2015-16 season with a mark of 16-18 overall and with a 10-8 record inside the Southern Conference. From first glance, this visitor looks like a perennial cupcake that was an appetizer for many of the game?s bigger predators to prey upon. However, this is certainly not the case. The Catamounts put together a storied run on the back end of the 2015-16 campaign as they made it all the way to the Southern Conference semifinals before falling to the conference?s thoroughbred, Chattanooga, by just four points. WCU came in as a .500 basketball team while Chattanooga had already eclipsed 28 wins on the season. On their way to the semifinals, the Catamounts won seven of their last eight overall, beating the conference?s best teams along the way, including Wofford, Mercer and Furman. The Cats even notched a win over the aforementioned conference champion Chattanooga over that span, showcasing their ability to hang with and beat premium competition on a conference level. WCU would qualify for the CBI tournament as a result of their efforts and they would be sent off in a Battle of the Catamounts when they lost to Vermont by just five points.
To many, it may appear as if WCU just went on a run and peaked at the right time and since then have regressed back to the typical Western Carolina team that loses games more than they win. However, with four of their starting five returning from last season along with two key bench players back in the fold, there is plenty of opportunity to argue otherwise. The Cats opened up with an eyesore loss at Miami only to follow it up with a dominant win at home. Most recently, WCU fell against fellow conference cohort North Carolina Central by eight points in an early-season rivalry fixture.
Meanwhile, Marshall at 2-0 owns a win over the aforementioned common opponent in North Carolina Central by 12 points, which is perhaps the driving force of this market. The Herd finished 17-16 in 2015-16, squeaking by UTEP in the first round of the C-USA Tournament as a #3 seed before being sent off with authority by Middle Tennessee State in the follow-up. The Herd failed to qualify for a post-season tournament and more or less took advantage of teams they were supposed to be better than to win the games they did along the way. It is a far contrasting narrative compared to Western Carolina, who ended up being much better than its record suggested. Nevertheless, the amount of points here could be superfluous as the Catamounts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road affairs, signifying the markets' propensity for undervaling them.
RUTGERS +27 over Penn State
This one is a classic setup to take the points, as there is nothing but numerous factors working against the favorite here. Prior to the start of the season and a month into it when the Nittany Lions were 2-2, they were a complete afterthought in regards to winning the Big Ten but that is the unlikely position they find themselves in coming into this one. If the Nittany Lions merely have the best record among the three division co-leaders in the six combined remaining games, then Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh will watch from home as Franklin leads Penn State onto the field in Indianapolis as improbable Big Ten East champs. After defeating Ohio State, Iowa and Indiana in three of the past four weeks, Penn State very likely sees this game as a walk in the park and if there was ever a time to exhale and just show up in body, this would be it.
Out of nowhere, there is suddenly a lot of noise surrounding the Lions, and they'll be tasked with laying heavy weight on the road while concentrating mainly on mere survival. The opportunities to buy Penn State at favorable prices are long gone and now you?ll pay a massive premium to back them because of the aforementioned noise that surrounds them. The final factor is decaying team health. The Lions are not that deep just yet and a long season with high intensity is gradually wearing this team down. The offensive line, already a weakness, is of particular concern and the last time the Lions played with such poor health was in Week 4, when they lost 49-10 to the Wolverines. The danger signs of laying heavy weight on the road with an outfit who?s stock hasn?t been this high since the glory days just keep piling up. We can almost guarantee that Penn State will not cover both times in the final two weeks of the season because its stock is through the roof and so is the premium to pay to back them. If Penn State covers here, we'll be fading them next week too.
My college basketball freebie is on the Albany Great Danes, who host the Grand Canyon Antelope in an odd preseason game that pits a pair of scrappy mid-mid-majors.
The Danes are playing two games in as many nights, beginning with tonight's game against Grand Canyon, at 10,000-seat Mohegan Sun Arena, home of the WNBA's Connecticut Sun. Tomorrow Albany will play Brown in the same venue.
I think we're going to see plenty of vigor from this team, as it will be pumped to get some momentum going for this two-day run, as part of the eight-team Naismith Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament.
The headline team of the tournament is Duke, which plays Penn State at 12:30 p.m. today. And Albany-Grand Canyon is the nightcap. The Great Danes will not be outdone.
In the first game of the tournament, Albany upset Penn State on the road, 87-81. Granted, they also lost at Cincinnati, 74-51, Monday night. But with this one being close to home, I think the travel factor could effect how the Antelopes play.
Grand Canyon is 0-2, having lost to Penn State and Duke on the road; it will also play Louisville and Arizona, so the Lopes will be looking past the Danes.
Take Albany here.
Toronto +144 over MONTREAL
OT included. Montreal played last night in Carolina and fought like hell for 60 minutes in what appeared to be a look-ahead spot. The Habs deserved a better fate last night but they have dished out that same fate dozens of times to others that have outplayed them and lost over the past few years or ever since Carey Price arrived on the scene. Price sat last night but he?ll be back in the net tonight. Fading Price brings risk but the tag here on the Maple Leafs is far too fat to pass up on. Moving forward, tags like this on Toronto will be few and far between.
It is truly remarkable what the ?Three Wise Men? have accomplished in such a short time for the Maple Leafs. It?s also remarkable what a difference management makes. While others before them were tearing down the Maple Leafs year after year by way of bad trades, bad judgement or poor recognition of talent, Lou Lamoriello, Brendan Shanahan and Mike Babcock have built a present and future of great potential and promise in the span of 16 months. Toronto leads the NHL in Corsi for per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. The Maple Leafs have gone from an offensively challenged team last year to one of the most balanced attacks in the game. A guy like Nazem Kadri, who was relied on to produce the past two seasons has suddenly had a big weight taken off his shoulders and he?s now a third line winger that is producing points and chances every game. While the Maple Leafs have some work to do in the defensive end, they are slowly but surely getting better in that department too. Toronto has scored six goals in each of its last three victories over Philadelphia (6-3), Nashville (6-2) and Florida (6-1). The Leafs are rested, confident and in better form than the Habs and in this spot, we expect to get their best effort. Huge overlay.
Edmonton +111 over DALLAS
OT included. The Stars are coming off a 3-2 win in Colorado but it was an unimpressive effort. Dallas took an early 3-0 lead and instead of coasting and putting the banged up Avs away, they allowed Colorado to come within a goal of tying it. The Stars were outshot 36-22 and even coach Lindy Ruff said he was ?embarrassed? by the way they played. It was nothing new though, as Dallas has been outshot in six straight games and it has given up 30 or more shots against in each of its last nine games. The Stars have poor goaltending with their team's 3.28 goals against per game being the fourth worst in the league. The Stars are a great fade when favored, as their 3-6 record when favored will attest to.
After a Cinderella start to the season, it looks like the clock has struck midnight on the Oilers. Edmonton has lost five straight and Connor McDavid hasn't scored in 10 games. The five game losing streak combined with McDavid?s funk now provides us with an opportunity that we?re not about to miss. The Oilers are not playing poorly. Instead, they?re not getting their fair share of puck luck. The Oilers opportunities and chances have been just as frequent during this skid as when they were winning. Edmonton has outshot its last four opponents despite losing each game. That includes a 3-2 loss to these Stars eight days ago in which Edmonton fired away 42 shots and had a Corsi advantage of 46-29, and a possession advantage of 61% to 39%. The Oilers are on the verge of breaking out of this mini slump because of the hard work they put in and this is the perfect opportunity to do so. Dallas is a beatable team with weak goaltending and a weak defense which figures to bode well for a hungry Connor McDavid and company.
Winnipeg +145 over BOSTON
OT included. We?ll have plenty to say about the Bruins at a later date or when the time is right but that would not apply here. While we like what we?re seeing from the Bruins thus far, this one is all about playing value. In that regard, Boston has not done enough to warrant this price, nor have they done enough to suggest they are the superior team here. This is not about fading the Bruins. It is all about taking back prices like this on Winnipeg.
The Jets are coming off a 5-2 loss in Philly in what might be one of the more misleading scores of the year. The Jets dominated the first period by outshooting the Flyers 11-4 but Philly scored on its first two shots of the game to take a 2-0 lead into the first break. Winnipeg would go on to dominate the rest of the game too but a victory was not in the cards, as they run into a rarely hot Steve Mason while Connor Hellebucyk was way off his game. Prior to losing to Philadelphia, the Jets defeating Chicago (4-0), L.A. (3-2) and Dallas (8-2) among others and picked up points in seven of eight games. The Jets bring one of the NHL?s best and most dangerous lines to the rink every game. Their defense features a slew of solid, puck moving defensemen that also do a good job in limiting the opposition?s chances. The Jets rank eighth in Corsi against. The Jets have frequently made our slate lately because the market is still unaware of how dangerous this intruder is. Until the market catches up or until the Jets show us something different, we?ll continue to play them when it?s warranted like it is here.
Albert Morales by knockout/TKO
Thomas Almeida is a great offensive fighter, but as we saw in his last bout, his defense is not a strength and neither is his chin. Obviously Almeida will be out for blood this time around, but an increase in aggression also increases his risk of getting flatlined again. In Albert Morales, we have a fighter who displays absolutely zero fear of their opponent and one who will be swinging for the fences from the moment the opening bell hits. While it's not incredibly probable Morales wins the fight, if he does, it's going to be by knockout so I just couldn't resist the Morales by knockout/TKO prop at (+507).
