04:25 PM NFL [108] TOTAL u52.5 -110 (TB BUCCANEERS vrs NO SAINTS)
01:00 PM NFL [110] CAR PANTHERS +135
01:00 PM NFL [111] MIN VIKINGS +7-110
01:00 PM NFL [113] NY JETS +17-110
04:05 PM NFL [120] OAK RAIDERS -3.5 -105
08:25 PM NFL [126] HOU TEXANS -2.5 -110
08:00 PM CFB [227] Middle Tennessee State -7-125 (B+0.5)
1 unit bet pays 108 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
a fun article I read this week on ESPN "Wiseguys continue to lose money betting Browns"
nice article on Panthers gunning for chance at redemption in game today
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
San Diego (-6) over Cleveland
The Browns are on the verge of going 0-16! This team hasn't even been close to winning games. The last time they stayed within a touchdown of an opponent was back on Oct. 30. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games and 1-10 ATS in its last 11. The Chargers have lost three straight games. But they have been losing tight games against good teams. They almost knocked off Oakland last week and took a 'push' ATS. San Diego won at Oakland and at Houston this year, and this team doesn't want to be the team that loses to Cleveland for the first time this year. San Diego beat Cleveland 30-27 last year and they won their last three trips to Cleveland in 2004, 2006 and 2009. I think that this one will be another blowout and the Chargers will beat this number.
Dolphins at Bills
Play: Over 41.5
The Miami Dolphins come to Orchard Park, New York with expectations of making the playoffs. Well they do have their destiny in their own hands and two wins will do it. Although as everyone knows it's no easy task to play in Buffalo in December. Well there is good news for the Dolphin fans as it will be a balmy 39 degrees at game time and no snow. Matter of fact it could rain, just what the fish needed. For us this means that these teams will score points, as this line has dropped from the opener of 43 1/2 to at the current line of 41 1/2. Last game these two teams played in Miami the Dolphins won 28-25 and we can expect to see a similar game today. The Bills lead the league in rushing offense and the Dolphins D are ranked 30th against the run. We will see LeSean McCoy have a big game on the ground for the Bills. Matt Moore has given the Dolphins confidence when the season looked almost OVER when starting QB Ryan Tannehill went out with an injury. Moore had a great game against a Jets defense that is fairly similar to the Bills defense he will face today. The Bills are 16th and the Jets 17th in total defense. We had this line at 44 and at 41 1/2 we feel that there is tons of value in this number at the time of this writing. Backing our selection is the fact that the OVER is 7-0 in Bills last 7 home games and the OVER is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games following a straight up win.
Bucs at Saints
Pick: Under
The Bucs have won five of their last six overall after coming up short in a 26-20 defeat at Dallas on Sunday night. They turned the ball over four times in that loss, putting their defense in a tough spot. Heading into last Sunday's game the Bucs had won five straight, limiting opponents to an average of less than 13 points per game during that span. One of those wins came against New Orleans, and they picked off Drew Brees three times in a 16-11 home win. Brees is coming off a big game on the road at Arizona, but the Cardinals look like a team that has already thrown in the towel. The Bucs are still fighting for a playoff spot, and they should go all out here at the Super Dome. These two teams have gone under the total in 13 of the last 16 meetings, and the Saints have failed to reach the total in seven straight versus teams with a winning record. The Bucs have gone under in five of their last six road games.
Vikings vs. Packers
Play: Vikings +6?
We backed the Packers two weeks ago when they whipped Seattle and we released Chicago plus the points, covering against Green Bay last Sunday. After a 5-0 SU/ATS start to the season, the Vikings collapsed and have won just two of their last nine games, including bottoming-out last week in a 34-6 home loss to the Colts. They're on the brink of postseason elimination, while Green Bay can win the division if they win their final two games. But I expect a close contest in this one. HC Mike Zimmer stated it's time to find out who is going to fight. Despite last week's results, the Viking defense is still 3rd best in the league in both passing yards allowed and total yards allowed per game. They've held their opponents to 21 or fewer points in 11 of 14 games (regulation) this season. Minnesota has been an underdog of six or more on just six occasions since October 19, 2014. They covered all six games, including a 22-10 outright win as a six point dog at Carolina earlier this season. I expect Minnesota to keep this close and I'm taking the points with the Vikings.
Texans Pk
This is a horrible spot for the Bengals, coming off a tough loss to the Steelers in a game in which they blew a big first half lead. Now they have to travel to Houston and face a suddenly rejuvenated Texans team. I don?t know how good Tom Savage is just yet, but what I do know is that he can and will throw the deep ball. This alone gives me reason to boost the Texans power ranking. They have not been able to utilize their outside weapons at all this season and now it appears that they can open things up. I think this QB change is an emotional boost for Houston. On the other side of the ball the defense has been playing very well all season long, especially against the pass. Houston is 6-1 at home tis season while Cincinnati is just 2-5 on the road. I think it would be foolish for the Bengals to play AJ Green this week, and even if he does play he won?t be at 100%. I had this number pegged at -3 (With Savage). This price is cheap, really cheap and its worthy of a 2 unit wager.
In the Sights, Saturday NFL?
As the week progressed the pieces to fall into place to be involved in the hours before Santa on Christmas Eve, and put #126 Houston (8:25 Eastern) into play, with some +1 to be found now, and the Texans holding value to -1.
Both ends of this one have been discussed at length already this week so let me add a few clinching details ? first the notion that for as well as the Houston defense has played recently, including a domination of Jacksonville far beyond what the scoreboard shows last Sunday, the Texans will now get Whitney Mercilus back on the field, and there is a good chance Jonathan Joseph returns as well. That just adds more talent and chemistry to this group, Mercilus having been chosen as a Pro Bowl alternate, and Joseph having made the Pro Bowl twice in the past. A negative may be the absence of Lamar Miller, who missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday, but that has been fully factored into this line, and Alfred Blue and Akeem Hunt bring enough from the reserve cast to keep this a go.
It is the flip side of the equation that has read well, and for all of the earlier discussions about being a road team out of contention on this particular day, it was laid out in fine detail by Jim Owczarski of the Cincinnati Enquirer, a piece that would be good to keep in the files for this situation in the future. In addition to already lacking motivation for this setting, having used up a great deal of energy in that grudge match vs. the Steelers last week, the Bengals were thrown the curveball of having to play at night. That means heading straight to the airport afterwards to be home for Christmas morning, their plane likely landing around 4 AM.
Cincinnati will compete like a professional team, which the Bengals have done each week since falling out of contention, but those notions of staying after practice for extra work, which I expect from the Texans, won?t be there. In a close matchup that can make a difference, and it will be the sharpness and added focus of the home team that pulls this one through.
Indianapolis vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The 11-3 Oakland Raiders have clinched an AFC playoff spot (first since 2002) and are now focused on earning a first-round bye. Meanwhile, the 7-7 Indianapolis Colts are in danger of missing out on the postseason for the second year in a row. Indianapolis is one game behind the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans in the AFC South and is two games behind the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card derby. However, the Colts' chances to win the division or claim a wild-card are exceptionally bleak.
The Colts must win both their last two games to have a chance in the AFC South. They would need the Texans to lose their last two contests, including one against the Titans, and have Tennessee lose Saturday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 9-5 Miami Dolphins currently possess the last AFC wild-card spot and the Colts would need the Dolphins, Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens to all lose their final two games. Lots of luck, as the saying goes!
"It's sort of a one-game season for us," Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck said. "I know from our perspective as an offense they're a really good defensive unit. They force turnovers, they've got good edge rushers and they've got good cover guys. It will be a great challenge." Luck is bothered by minor shoulder and thumb injures but doesn't expect to be hindered on game day. He's had a nice bounce-back season, throwing for 3,631 yards and 27 TDs (just 10 INTs) while earning a 97.1 QB rating. His running game hasn't helped much (102.3 YPG ranks 19th) and the Colts D hardly at all, ranking 27th in yards allowed (370.9 YPG) and 24.2 PPG (23rd).
However, entering this game, Luck is likely the healthier of the two starting QBs. Oakland Derek Carr is playing with an injured right pinkie finger that has affected his recent play. Still, Carr is enjoying an MVP-caliber season with 3,705 yards passing with 25 TD passes against just six interceptions (95.2 QB rating). That said, he's just 36-of-71 passing for 330 yards over the past two games (just one TD but also just one INT). A telling sign is that the Raiders' offense is also operating nearly exclusively out of the shotgun to prevent the center snap exchange from irritating Carr's injured finger.
It's true that the Colts have thrived on the road after losing their first three away games, as they will seek their fifth straight victory on enemy soil in this one (4-0 SU & ATS run!). However, slightly injured or not, Carr has re-energized the Raiders and last Sunday's win in San Diego clinched the team's first playoff berth in 14 years! Oakland has the second-best record in the AFC behind the New England Patriots (12-2) and also holds a one-game lead in the AFC West over the Kansas City Chiefs (10-4). Carr was one of SEVEN Raiders named to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday!
The Colts bring a 4-0 SU & ATS road run into this contest but Oakland has a streak of its own, as it has won four in a row at home (3-1 ATS with the loss by a half-point!) after dropping two of its first three. Oakland gets the win and cover, ending Indy's playoff hopes. Lay it.
Colts +3.5
No doubt Oakland has been having a great season, but I think this is the perfect time to step in front of them. Oakland is coming off a tight divisional road win @ SD. On deck, they have another divisional road game @ Denver. This is a bad flat spot / sandwich game for the Raiders in my opinion. This week the Raiders had an NFL team high 7 players selected to the Pro Bowl. This is a very young team, hearing about how great they are, sneaking away with all of these tight wins?. and now hear comes the Colts. They crush the Vikings last weekend thanks to the play of the O-line. They committed to the run, took some pressure off Luck and played one of their best games of the season. They should have no problem doing that again here against Oakland and I think they win outright.
Colts (7-7) at Raiders (11-3)
Indianapolis? previous four road games produced wins at Tennessee, Green Bay, the Jets and Minnesota. As visitors, Indy were underdogs in each contest before pulling off the upset and, yes, they were a ?dog to the dreadful Jets. Now, the Colts might be catching the Raiders at just the right time. Oakland is giddy after officially qualifying for the playoffs last week when knocking off the Chargers. Raiders were fortunate to narrowly win that one against the banged-up Chargers and it followed a loss to the Chiefs. Both games saw previously hot QB Derek Carr with subpar games, likely the result of a damaged pinky on his throwing hand. Oakland returns home for this game sandwiched between three divisional rivals. QB Andrew Luck was able to mow down a solid Minnesota defence last week. The unit he?ll face on this day is weaker and the team as a whole may get caught taking a breather. TAKING: COLTS +3?
Dolphins (9-5) at Bills (7-7)
It?s more naughty than nice that the Dolphins are being treated this way. Miami has won eight of its previous nine games and are currently a playoff-bound team, yet they are being given in excess of a field goal against a .500 Bills squad that will be watching the post-season on television. Does Buffalo?s win last week over laughingstock Cleveland give them some sort of credibility? We hardly think so. The Bills have not established that they can defeat a winning team, losing each time with the exception of a victory over the Patriots when New England had to start injured third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Remove that one and Buffalo?s other six wins have come against teams that are an astonishing 16-65-2 combined. While this will be Miami QB Matt Moore?s second start since replacing injured Ryan Tannehill, Moore loses nothing to Bills? Tyrod Taylor. Taking these points should put a jingle in our pockets. TAKING: DOLPHINS +4
Falcons (9-5) at Panthers (6-8 )
It might be unjust to condemn a team for its schedule, but picking winners is not about political correctness. Therefore, we will use Atlanta?s recent good fortune against them here and not feel the least bit guilty when doing so. The Falcons were a modest 7-5 before facing a pair teams that are hardly NFL calibre, walloping the Rams and 49ers by a combined 83-27. Atlanta?s fast-paced offence laid 40+ on both doormat teams while barely breaking a sweat. Before that though, these birds had dropped two of three, including a loss at physical Philadelphia. In the ?what have you done for me lately? league, the public will think the Falcs can do no wrong. We think differently. Carolina will host its final game of the year and the Panthers have won four of previous five here. They showed their chops last week in Washington. This will be the first time this year they?ll be taking home points and to a division rival to boot. Expect an appropriate response. TAKING: PANTHERS +2?
THE REST
Redskins (7-6-1) at Bears (3-11)
Prefer the do-or-die Redskins here despite laying an egg at home this past Monday to the Panthers. The Bears deserve praise for their recent efforts, but they still don?t know how to win games with their only victory in previous six games coming against lowly 49ers in a blizzard. The Redskins barely have a playoff pulse, but they?ll keep playing hard until they flat line. They?ve been solid on the road with eight covers in past 10 away games. Washington?s offence had a power outage last week, but QB Kirk Cousins, second in the NFL with 4,360 passing yards and 23 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, should bounce back. Note, weather should not be a factor here as mild temperatures are expected. TAKING: REDSKINS ?3
Buccaneers (8-6) at Saints (6-8 )
The Saints broke out of their scoring doldrums last week when laying 48 on the Cardinals. But we saw these same Bucs hold New Orleans to just 11 points just two weeks ago. Maybe Drew Brees and supporting cast will tally more than 11 this time around, but Tampa?s defence has molded into a solid unit after some underachieving with former coaching staffs. The Buccaneers had relinquished less than 13 points per game in previous five before surrendering 26 to Dallas last week. Such efforts should allow for the offence to take care of their side of the ball because the Saints can?t stop anyone, ranking near the bottom in several defensive categories. New Orleans? only covers as chalk this year were against Niners and Rams. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +3
Vikings (7-7) at Packers (8-6)
The Vikings will need more than a broken-down Adrian Peterson to ignite their struggling offence. Minnesota has averaged less than 15 points per game over the past month as opposing defences stick eight in the box while they take their chances with the Vikes? lower-ranked passing game. Minnesota?s secondary took a hit when safety Harrison Smith went down recently. We saw Andrew Luck and the Colts take full advantage last week in a 34-6 thumping of its guests. Now Minnesota will have to deal with another potent quarterback as Aaron Rodgers has a healthy roster around him again, which has coincided with Green Bay?s four-game win streak. Packers enjoy this time of year, covering 28-of-44 December home games since 2000. TAKING: PACKERS ?7
Jets (4-10) at Patriots (12-2)
Many will advise you never to spot double-digits in this league. Ignore those people. This is simply a gigantic mismatch. Perhaps the Patriots aren?t scoring as much as we?re accustomed to, but it won?t take that many for a cover here. While there are teams with less talent that these Jets, this visitor has clearly packed it in. This New York team is sure to be blown up as soon as the season ends as it lacks cornerstone players at nearly every position and a redo is in order. While the Jets-Patriots rivalry makes for a convenient storyline, it is not applicable here. Meanwhile, New England has quietly become the stingiest team in the league, surrendering just 16.6 points per game. Jets unlikely to get that many. TAKING: PATRIOTS ?16?
Titans (8-6) at Jaguars (2-12)
Might prefer going under the number in this one as Titans are winning, but not scoring, while the Jaguars aren?t winning either, but their defence is deviously competent. Under the same pretense, we?ll lean to the unpopular underdog here as spotting road points, particularly against a revenge-minded divisional opponent, is something Tennessee is not accustomed to. We?ll give the Titans their due after defeating both Denver and Kansas City the past two weeks, but this situation does not flatter them. Jags should be loose with new interim coach and they have done well against this foe with a 4-0-1 ATS mark in past five held here. Titans lack impact receivers, which also won?t help them against Jacksonville?s third-ranked pass defenders. TAKING: JAGUARS +5
Chargers (5-9) at Browns (0-14)
Oh, the Browns, they are so frightful, but to bettors they?re so delightful. And since they?re stuck on zero, make us dough, make us dough, make us dough! We made the mistake of endorsing Cleveland last week when taking double-digits to Buffalo. We?re not going to let that happen again. The Browns simply can?t compete. Still winless, they haven?t covered a spread since mid-October, only the second time they covered all year. The return of QB Robert Griffin III hasn?t helped much either as Cleveland has scored just 10 and 13 points, respectively, since coming back. The Brownies are averaging 10 points per game over past six while giving up second most in NFL at 29.1 per contest. TAKING: CHARGERS ?6
and the Cleveland money enters into the market, SD now down to -5.5 and -5 in many shops. i simply do not understand this.
There may even be as low as -4 later today. There is a lot of anti-Chargers money in the marketplace, the notion of a west coast team heading nowhere having to play on a cold day in Cleveland, although at least the weather will not be below freezing. I also believe that if the field conditions are not good there is little chance of San Diego risking Melvin Gordon, and something that has been noted here a few times recently is that Kenneth Farrow may not be a genuine NFL RB - the last two games he has only managed 94 rushing yards on 31 carries, has fumbled twice, and also missed a pass block assignment that led to a Philip Rivers fumble. That severely limits the Chargers offense, so even if they do bring the proper focus this game may turn into a fight.
49ers (1-13) at Rams (4-10)
The 49ers defeated the Rams 28-0 to open the season. They haven?t won since and that?s because the Niners are ho-ho-horrible. Los Angeles isn?t much better, but that doesn?t mean that an opportunity is not presented. If Jared Goff is to be L.A.?s quarterback of the future, he?ll have occasion to strut his stuff here with little risk. San Francisco?s stop unit is as poor a group as you?ll ever see at this level. The Niners are dead last in yards allowed, points allowed and rushing yards allowed. You have to be extremely awful to be an underdog to a Rams team that is dead last in scoring at 14.1 points per game. Fading the Niners is preferred. TAKING: RAMS ?3?
Cardinals (5-8-1) at Seahawks (9-4-1)
The Cardinals are a frustrating group as their metrics are amazingly good, but they haven?t found a way to turn those numbers into wins this season. The mental makeup of this team might be fragile, but that?s not going to prevent us from endorsing them here. While San Francisco and Los Angeles don?t have the personnel to compete with the Seahawks, this divisional rival does. Arizona ranks higher than the Seahawks in almost every offensive category. This underdog also ranks higher defensively in yards allowed and passing yards allowed. The two teams played to an unusual 6-6 tie earlier this season. Stopping Seattle?s pedestrian offence shouldn?t be an issue again and nor should scoring enough points to earn a cover. TAKING: CARDINALS +7?
Bengals (5-8-1) at Texans (8-6)
How did this one get flexed to the Christmas Eve timeslot? Controversy in Houston as expensive QB Brock Osweiler has been benched in favour of Tom Savage after the third-year backup came off the bench to lead the Texans to a comeback win over Jacksonville last week. However, that was Jacksonville, a team that leads the league in self-implosions. The Bengals have their own struggles in this lost season, but they bring enough to the table here to trump this AFC South opponent, including the return of star receiver A.J. Green. Houston?s offensive line has issues and the Bengals have upped their run defence. Savage might be an upgrade at his position, but let?s see how he does as a starter before endorsing at his short price. TAKING: BENGALS +1
Ravens (8-6) at Steelers (9-5)
The Steelers were an 11-point favourite in last year?s penultimate weekend at Baltimore. The Ravens won that game by a 20-17 count. Pittsburgh was also favoured in the initial meeting of these two just over a month ago before Baltimore won again. That makes four straight wins for John Harbaugh?s club. While Pittsburgh would like to avenge those losses, seeing will be believing. The Steelers are on a five-game winning streak but if you?ve watched them, they?ve been very fortunate to win a few of those. Close games has been the norm between these two combatants. Since Joe Flacco?s arrival, 15 of the 20 meetings vs. Steelers have been decided by a single score. Same should occur on this day. TAKING: RAVENS +5?
Broncos (8-6) at Chiefs (10-4)
Difficult to put much faith in the Chiefs on their own field with just two covers in previous 10 played here, including last week?s improbable loss to the visiting Titans. Still, more concerned with a Denver offence that still can?t seem to get on track after scoring just 13 combined points over the past two weeks. Of major concern is an offensive line that cannot protect QB Trevor Siemian (four sacks last week) or establish running lanes for a ground attack. The Chiefs haven?t lost consecutive games since October of last year. They?ve already defeated the Broncos in Denver last month and, while the defending champs own a formidable defence, K.C. has racked up a combined 83 points in the past three meetings. TAKING: CHIEFS ?3
Lions (9-5) at Cowboys (12-2)
Difficult to rate this one as there could be some motivational factors involved here, namely for the Cowboys. Should the Giants lose to the Eagles (last night?s result not available at press time), Dallas would have the No. 1 seed locked up in the NFC and the ?Boys would have nothing to play for. Detroit needs to win as they could end up playing the Packers next week for the NFC North, but even if Lions came out on short end of that one, a wild-card placing remains as a possible consolation. No matter the scenario here, a full touchdown is too many points to be spotting a competitive Detroit squad. Dallas is not covering these days either with four straight failures. TAKING: LIONS +7
Redskins / Bears Over 47.5
Although the Bears are having a White Sox kind of season, there are some positives amid the rubble of their 3-11 SU mark. Especially recent competitive efforts that confirm the team has not quit for HC John Fox (who, as a result, likely gets another year to forge a turnaround), the emergence of RB Jordan Howard (close to 1000 YR), and the likelihood journeyman QB Matt Barkley gets to be invited back in 2017 after impressing in his recent relief stint. All that being said, Chicago still continues to lose, and a positive result last Monday vs. Carolina would keep the visiting Redskins in the thick of the NFC playoff race. Even with Monday's "under" vs. Panthers, note that Jay Gruden's team still on a 16-3 "over" run since late 2015.
Dolphins +5
The betting markets seem fixated by the series history here. Yes, Rich Stadium has been a house of horrors in recent years for Miami. The Dolphins lost by 16 on this field last year, by 19 in 2014 and by 19 in 2013, part of a 1-7 SU run here in Buffalo. I couldn?t care less about the series history here. This year?s Dolphins team is better than any recent version; not an ?apples to apples? comparison.
And the markets are convinced that Miami won?t bring their ?A? game to this cold weather venue. But gametime temperatures are expected to be above freezing, and Miami certainly didn?t look all that negatively affected by much nastier conditions in New Jersey against the Jets last Saturday. It is worth noting that Miami played on Saturday last week ? they?ve got a normal prep week, while the Bills are on a short week.
The markets focus on stats, and Buffalo has a solid statistical profile. But when it comes to results, Rex Ryan?s team consistently falls short. The results don?t lie. Look at Buffalo?s wins this year. The beat the Jaguars, Browns, 49ers and Rams, all bottom feeders. They beat the Bengals when Cinci was in the midst of a ?two wins in ten games? slide. They beat the Patriots with Jacoby Brissett behind center.
Buffalo?s one legit ?signature? win came back in Week 3 at home against Arizona, and even that comes with two asterisks ? it was an awful spot for the Cards and Arizona is no juggernaut this year ? they?re a five win team here in Week 16. In short, the Bills are not a team that has stepped up and knocked off quality competition by margin at any stage of the campaign.
The biggest issue with this inflated pointspread is that the markets have downgraded the Dolphins significantly with Matt Moore taking over for the injured Ryan Tannehill behind center. Moore is no rookie, a nine year vet who made a dozen starts for the Dolphins in 2011 and who has served as the backup in Miami ever since. He threw four TD?s in Jersey last Saturday Night, displaying a gunsligher mentality, a mentality that Dolphins head coach Adam Gase appreciates.
Gase, talking about his QB: ?I like calling plays for him, because you never know what you?re going to experience in that play. I kind of like that about him. He?s aggressive. It?s fun, when we were going through preseason, how he?d develop in this offense. But I don?t think he gives himself the credit for the fact that he sees coverage well, he can throw the ball underneath, he can throw the intermediate ball. I like the fact that he?s not afraid to scramble outside of the pocket and play a little looser than a lot of coaches like. I like it.? And I like the concept of Miami playing loose and free, not tight and constrained, in a game where they?re catching too many points.
Minnesota +6? over GREEN BAY
Green Bay is rolling after four straight wins over the Eagles, Texans, Seahawks and Bears. The Packers look like the ?lead pipe lock? against these Vikings in Week 16 but rarely is it that easy. We also can't forget how the Packers almost blew it last week in their three-point win over the Bears. The Packers have had problems on their offensive line for years. Protecting Rodgers was an issue again last Sunday, as he was sacked four times. The Packers stock is sky high, which is very simply not the right time to step in. Green Bay?s win over Seattle is its most impressive of the year but perhaps lost in that is its many other stumbles. The Packers are being hyped as the team ?nobody wants to play? in the playoffs but they haven't secured a spot yet.
Minnesota appears to be in a full freefall after getting blown out 34-6 at home by the Colts last week. After losing seven of their last nine, this looks like rock bottom for a team that started the season 5-0. It's not all bad, as the Vikings pass defense ranks third in the league and despite their poor showing last week, they've been very solid all season. Minnesota has traveled well all year by allowing just 17.8 points per game in seven road contests. In their last two road games, the Vikings have given up just two total touchdowns. According to predictionmachine.com, the Vikes have an 11.8% chance to make the playoffs and although it's not much, it means they are mathematically alive but let?s put aside all that. You see, this is a divisional game between two bitter rivals that rarely ends with one team winning big. More importantly, Green Bay?s stock is high while the Vikes stock has hit rock bottom after their 28-point home loss last week. Teams? usually respond after blowouts and while the Packers have rallied a bit, this is still a fragile team that is not having a football renaissance with a fairy tale ending. Don?t allow two weeks of football by Green Bay to overshadow just how mediocre they have been the other 14 weeks and in the process. be weary about spotting significant points to this bitter enemy.
BUFFALO -4 over Miami
The Dolphins are coming off a huge 34-13 prime time win over the Jets last Saturday night. Miami can clinch a Wild Card spot with a win at Buffalo in Week 16 combined with a Denver loss. Matt Moore will make his second start at quarterback this year after an impressive first one last week. We stand by everything we said last week about Moore being a total stiff. His stat line last week was a result of two long TD passes and four Jets turnovers. In reality, the Dolphins coaching staff only let him throw 18 times. Moore could be in for a rude awakening this week against a Bills squad that has a little more to play for. The last time these two teams played it was back in October in sunny Miami but this time it will be close to freezing in Orchard Park. A second straight game on the road in a frosty climate does the Dolphins no favors. Just three weeks ago they were dominated 38-6 in Baltimore and Miami hasn't won in Buffalo since 2011.
If you listen to the media, Rex Ryan is on the hot seat. If you ask Ryan, he says everything is fine. If you ask the players, they have their head coaches' back. Running back LeSean McCoy, offensive lineman Richie Incognito and members of the defense spoke out in favor of Ryan this week. The Bills are 7-7 after rolling the Browns last week but they still have a shot at the post season. Ryan might be a blowhard but traditionally his players love to go to battle with him. All of the heat this week has been on the coach, leaving the players free to prepare for this important home game. If defending their coach adds to their motivation, we'll take it. Buffalo is one of the most hostile places to play in the league, especially when it?s cold and snowing or just cold.
There's plenty of negative press coming out of Buffalo this week but it's important to ignore all off that nonsense when making your picks. When talking about the Dolphins, the pundits says it's a ?must win? because they have a chance to clinch a playoff spot. The ?must win? angle was used to back the Giants on Thursday along with numerous others over the years and it?s a horrible angle to use. It's nothing more than a talking point that seldom works out. We faded the Dolphins last week in New York and got buried in that game. The propensity for most is to back off after a game like that but we?re sticking with it. The Dolphins last four wins came against the Rams, San Fran, Arizona and the Jets. Other than beating Pittsburgh in Week 6, the Fish have not only lost to every playoff team they played, they got steamrolled by 15, 13 and 32 points in three of them. Miami?s cold weather history and lack of being challenged by anyone other than Baltimore the last five weeks makes them extremely vulnerable here while the Bills come in with a ?Win one for the Gipper? attitude. The ?Gipper? in this case is Rex Ryan, a player?s coach to be sure.
NEW ORLEANS -3? over Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have won five of their last six games with their only loss over that stretch coming at the 12-2 Cowboys last Sunday night. While they were able to cover the 6?-point spread, the Bucs probably should have been run off the field after turning it over four times. The Cowboys turned TD?s into FG?s with bad penalties at the wrong time. Despite their recent success, the Bucs offense has been suspect. They've managed to score more than 20 points just once during their five-game winning streak and that was against a Chargers pass defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league. Just two weeks ago in Tampa, the Bucs picked off Saints quarterback Drew Brees three times but could still only muster up 16 points in a win. Opposing offenses have picked on the Saints all season but Winston managed just 184 yards on 16 of 26 completions with no touchdowns.
The Saints remain alive in the playoff hunt at 6-8 and while their chances aren't great, they should have some extra motivation for this one. New Orleans is a tale of two teams. They typically struggle outdoors on the road but they put up big offensive numbers at home in the dome. The Saints are always capable of putting up big points, as they showed in last week's 48-41 win at Arizona. The Cards' defense ranked fourth in the league before the Saints came to town last week. The Saints also put up over 40 points on a Rams unit that ranked 11th. The Saints' ability to score and extend drives allows their defense time to rest. One can have great success backing Sean Peyton and the Saints in the right spots against defenses that are bound to wear down when facing his unique offense. Tampa Bay does not offer the same opportunity because they simply don?t score enough. We've been scouring the schedule for victims of the Saints and found one last week in the Cardinals and absolutely trust we found another one this week in the Bucs.
CAROLINA +145 over Atlanta
Thanks to inferior competition, the banged up Falcons haven't missed a beat without star wide receiver Julio Jones. Atlanta has put up more than 40 points the last two weeks in wins over the Rams and 49ers but we?re not impressed. Prior to their back-to-back games against the two worst teams in the NFC, the Falcons appeared to be stuck in their traditional second half freefall. They lost on the road in Philly, lost at home to the Chiefs and blew back-to-back games against the Chargers and Seahawks after a 4-1 start to the season. The Falcons need this game to remain in front of the Buccaneers and in the hunt for a possible #2 Seed.
Carolina reveled in the role of the spoiler Monday night. The Cats took down the Redskins 26-15 in a game that wasn't really that close and while we are not in the habit of playing a team that looked so good in prime time the previous week, there are exceptions to every rule and this is one of those times. The Panthers were plenty motivated last week and will be even more so this week with a chance to make life miserable for a division rival. The Panthers already lost to Atlanta earlier in the year but that was in Atlanta and the Panthers still put up 33 points. That was at a time when Carolina was going bad but they?re peaking now with back-to-back very impressive wins over San Diego and Washington while holding that pair to a mere 16 and 15 points respectively.
Big wins over weak teams is exactly that but those skewed numbers stick out to influence the line in a big way. Needing to win also has influence on the number. Don?t make the mistake of backing skewed numbers. Atlanta is not coming close to putting up 40 points again and might not even score half of that here. The Panthers don't want to watch another team celebrate winning the NFC South title that they have won the past three years in their house and they're playing well enough to stop it. Frankly, we don?t see any reason whatsoever that warrants the Falcons being road chalk here and thus, we?ll skip over the points and play
Carolina to win outright.
Jets vs. Patriots
Play: Jets +17
I am making a small play on the Jets Saturday afternoon. I am not saying to bet the house on them, that?s what my 10* Game of the Week is for, but I will advise a 1* wager on the Jets plus the double digits.
There are way too many angles and trends supporting the Jets and going against the Patriots to ignore. The Patriots are the superior team, but there is line value here I feel in a matchup that has seen the last 7 meetings decided by 7 points or less. New England is fat and happy after beating the Broncos last week and clinching the division and a Playoff berth. Do I think they are going to completely lay down? No, but I can?t see them just ?mashing the gas? for all 4 quarters.
New England is 1-5 ATS their L6 following a win against Denver, including 0-3 ATS at home. They are also 0-7 ATS the L7 meetings against the Jets. The last two times they laid double digits it was a 1 and 3 point game. Now, I know the Jets are way down this year, but it?s the end of the season and I feel there are possible jobs on the line.
The last time the Jets were a double digit favorite? It was 2014. They are 4-0 ATS the L4 times they have gotten doubles. The only time in the last 10 years when they got more than 14 points was in 2007 when the Patriots laid 21.5 and won by only 10.
History as a way of repeating itself. With the Patriots 3-9 ATS as a double digit home favorite against their division since 2007 , look for this one to stay in the 13-14 point range.
Of the last 10 matchups, New England has never outgained the Jets by more than 70 yards.
San Diego / Cleveland Under 43.5
In a game that pits two teams playing out the string with fading offensive units, we?ll take the under. The winless Browns? offense is a disaster, averaging just 10.3 point per game the last six weeks. In fact, Cleveland hasn?t topped the 14-point barrier since Week 8 and overall at home this year they are 2-5 to the under while averaging just 14.7 points per game. The Chargers, meanwhile, may be the most disinterested team in the league today. Coming off a brutal home loss to division rival Oakland last week, the Bolts now head East on Christmas Eve to play in the cold in a meaningless game. The Chargers offense has also stalled in recent weeks, averaging just 19.6 points per game the last six weeks.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Teams that are 16 point favorites or more have unsurprisingly been 49-3 in the past 25 years, with the last loss coming in 1995 when the eventual Super Bowl Champ ? Dallas Cowboys were upset in week 14 as 17.5 point favorites in a divisional game against Washington. The Patriots are a 16.5 point favorite this week and the Steelers are a 16.5 point initial favorite over the Browns in week 17. The (12-2) Patriots have won 5 straight as Touchdown Tom Brady continues his NFL revenge tour, as he is averaging 7.8 NYPP with a 22-2 TD-INT ratio. However, in the recent 5 game win streak, it has been the defense that has improved their play, holding opponents to an average of 14 points per game. Bryce Petty has been given the start against the AFC-leading Pats and he has been the worst of the QBs that have suited up for the Gang Green this season, averaging 5.2 NYPP with a 3-6 TD-INT ratio. The advanced stats model shows value on the Under, so UNDER (43.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to the Patriots (-16.5).
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
In a game that has serious draft positioning implications, two of the worst teams in football square off in an NFC West sparring session. All indications are that No. 1 selection, Jared Goff, will give it a go this week as the 5 games he has started have all resulted in losses with an average margin of loss of -20. Goff has an atrocious 4.2 NYPP and 2015 offensive Rookie of the Year, Todd Gurley, has not provided any ground support at 3.2 yards per rush. The Niners are riding a 13 game losing streak, with their last win coming against the LA Rams in week 1. While Kaepernick has not been getting it done through the air at 5.3 NYPP, the Niners have actually been quite effective on the ground, averaging the 4.8 yards per rush. The advanced stats model sees value on the road dog with a bit more offense getting it done on the road, so it is a Strong Opinion at 49ers (+5). Lean to Under (39.5).
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -7.5
Seattle knows that wins over Arizona and San Francisco in its final two games of the regular season effectively guarantees a first round bye in the playoffs. The Seahawks are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season (4-2-1 ATS), and it's difficult to imagine a scenario under which Arizona (5-8 ) shows any interest in playing on Christmas Eve before one of the most difficult atmospheres in the NFL.
Seattle possesses a decent offense that is 0.1 yards per play better than average (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yards per play), but the Seahawks' attack becomes potent on its home turf. Indeed, Seattle is averaging 28.0 points and 379 points per game at 6.2 yards per play at home this season.
Quarterback Russell Wilson is completing 68.1% of his pass attempts at home for 264 yards at 7.9 yards per pass play. Seattle should move the ball effectively against an Arizona defense that is allowing 29.7 points and 304 total yards at 10.2 yards per point on the road. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 64.7% of their pass attempts at home against Arizona's secondary.
The scheduling circumstances also favor Seattle as the Cardinals are playing their fifth road game in seven weeks and were eliminated from postseason contention with last week's 48-41 loss to New Orleans. Meanwhile, Seattle is coming off a ho-hum 24-3 home win over the Rams last Thursday and has had a few extra days to prepare for Saturday's clash with Arizona.
From a technical standpoint, Arizona is a money-burning 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall, 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, 1-5 ATS in its last six games versus .501 or greater opposition and 2-12 ATS in its last fourteen games after yielding 351+ total yards in its previous game.
The Seahawks are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 December affairs, 11-5 ATS in their last sixteen games versus teams with a losing record, 35-17 ATS a home versus .499 or worse opposition and have covered four straight home games.
With Seattle standing at 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series, lay the points with the Seahawks.
My comp play for Saturday is the Over in the Cardinals-Seahawks game.
Yeah, yeah, I know the first time these teams played on October 23rd under the Thursday night lights we witnessed one of the ugliest displays of football in years, as the teams played to that memorable 6-6 draw in overtime!
Obviously, an easy Under. Why then am I going Over today? Simple, Arizona has nothing to play for, and has been letting it rip of late, as they hit the Emerald City with Overs in 5 in a row, and 6 of their last 7.
For their part, Seattle has played Overs in 2 of their last 3, and the Over is 4-2 their last 6 played at Century Link Field this season.
2 of the last 3 series meetings between the teams in Seattle have landed Over the total, so let's look for the points to add up to an Over here on Week 16.
2* ARIZONA-SEATTLE OVER
Chargers vs. Browns
Play: Browns +5
I know it is hard to make a play on the Browns when you consider just how pathetic their season has been but they are at home for the last time this season and they're hosting a fading Chargers team. San Diego has lost (and failed to cover) three straight games heading into this one. As a result, don't be surprised if the Browns are the hungrier team here as they are so desperate to get a win and avoid that dreaded 0-16 that is staring them in the face. With being eliminated from playoff contention, I just don't see the Chargers having much fight left in them for this game. Also, as a non-divisional road favorite, San Diego is on a 5-10 ATS run. The Browns are on a 4-1 ATS run against AFC West opponents and the Chargers are on a 3-9 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the past three seasons combined. It may be "ugly" but it should prove to be the right call based on home field, situational, and motivational factors here. Grab the ugly home dog.
Mid Tenn St. -7 over HAWAII
Hawaii, eligible at 6-7 via an exemption, is bowling for the first time since 2010. The Rainbow Warriors finished alone in second place in the MWC West division this year and are 4-4 in bowl games played at home in Aloha Stadium. That?s nice but Hawaii might be the worst team to play in a bowl game in the last decade. The Warriors were blown out a bunch of times and lost to every team they played that had a pulse. Hawaii defeated cupcakes only.
Last year, the Blue Raiders lost to Western Kentucky 58-28. This year they lost to WKU by one point in double OT. Last year, MTSU lost to Louisiana Tech, 45-16. This year they beat Tech by four points, 38-34. Last year, the Blue Raiders lost 45-31 in the Popeye?s Bahamas Bowl to Western Michigan, which is rather significant, as we point out below.
Just about all coaches have a good plan. All know their Xs and Os. All but a few have sufficient talent and resources on hand to fashion at least a marginal winner in their leagues. The bottom line is whether the coach can get his players to "do it;" to buy into the program's values and the plan to win. There's a lot we like about first-year Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich, but his first Hawaii team is not yet mature enough to really understand what it takes to win at this level. The Warriors will be outclassed here on Christmas Eve by a far more mature Middle Tennessee squad, who is fully prepared for this one and whose offense has a very favorable matchup, regardless of whether ailing quarterback Brent Stockstill plays.
Middle is now no longer a stranger to postseason distractions in an island paradise, having lost the Bahamas Bowl last year. But while the 2015 Blue Raiders were a little too satisfied with just being there, this year's bunch is in it to win it, and Hawaii is not prepared do anything about it. The biggest plays require having not only one team in perfect condition, but both. They require the ability to lose any single player to injury without major detriment. They require at least one positional group mismatch that the opposing team simply cannot handle. They require you to be able to move the number a touchdown to the bad and still feel the same way. This game checks all those key boxes and a lot more. This year it?s Hawaii that is just happy to be here and will likely pay the price that Middle paid last year. This line is very likely to move up to -7?, -8 or 8? so get in early. We?re calling Middle in a blowout so if you miss the best number, you can choose how to proceed.
01:00 PM NFL [110] CAR PANTHERS +135
01:00 PM NFL [111] MIN VIKINGS +7-110
01:00 PM NFL [113] NY JETS +17-110
04:05 PM NFL [120] OAK RAIDERS -3.5 -105
08:25 PM NFL [126] HOU TEXANS -2.5 -110
08:00 PM CFB [227] Middle Tennessee State -7-125 (B+0.5)
1 unit bet pays 108 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
a fun article I read this week on ESPN "Wiseguys continue to lose money betting Browns"
nice article on Panthers gunning for chance at redemption in game today
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
San Diego (-6) over Cleveland
The Browns are on the verge of going 0-16! This team hasn't even been close to winning games. The last time they stayed within a touchdown of an opponent was back on Oct. 30. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games and 1-10 ATS in its last 11. The Chargers have lost three straight games. But they have been losing tight games against good teams. They almost knocked off Oakland last week and took a 'push' ATS. San Diego won at Oakland and at Houston this year, and this team doesn't want to be the team that loses to Cleveland for the first time this year. San Diego beat Cleveland 30-27 last year and they won their last three trips to Cleveland in 2004, 2006 and 2009. I think that this one will be another blowout and the Chargers will beat this number.
Dolphins at Bills
Play: Over 41.5
The Miami Dolphins come to Orchard Park, New York with expectations of making the playoffs. Well they do have their destiny in their own hands and two wins will do it. Although as everyone knows it's no easy task to play in Buffalo in December. Well there is good news for the Dolphin fans as it will be a balmy 39 degrees at game time and no snow. Matter of fact it could rain, just what the fish needed. For us this means that these teams will score points, as this line has dropped from the opener of 43 1/2 to at the current line of 41 1/2. Last game these two teams played in Miami the Dolphins won 28-25 and we can expect to see a similar game today. The Bills lead the league in rushing offense and the Dolphins D are ranked 30th against the run. We will see LeSean McCoy have a big game on the ground for the Bills. Matt Moore has given the Dolphins confidence when the season looked almost OVER when starting QB Ryan Tannehill went out with an injury. Moore had a great game against a Jets defense that is fairly similar to the Bills defense he will face today. The Bills are 16th and the Jets 17th in total defense. We had this line at 44 and at 41 1/2 we feel that there is tons of value in this number at the time of this writing. Backing our selection is the fact that the OVER is 7-0 in Bills last 7 home games and the OVER is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games following a straight up win.
Bucs at Saints
Pick: Under
The Bucs have won five of their last six overall after coming up short in a 26-20 defeat at Dallas on Sunday night. They turned the ball over four times in that loss, putting their defense in a tough spot. Heading into last Sunday's game the Bucs had won five straight, limiting opponents to an average of less than 13 points per game during that span. One of those wins came against New Orleans, and they picked off Drew Brees three times in a 16-11 home win. Brees is coming off a big game on the road at Arizona, but the Cardinals look like a team that has already thrown in the towel. The Bucs are still fighting for a playoff spot, and they should go all out here at the Super Dome. These two teams have gone under the total in 13 of the last 16 meetings, and the Saints have failed to reach the total in seven straight versus teams with a winning record. The Bucs have gone under in five of their last six road games.
Vikings vs. Packers
Play: Vikings +6?
We backed the Packers two weeks ago when they whipped Seattle and we released Chicago plus the points, covering against Green Bay last Sunday. After a 5-0 SU/ATS start to the season, the Vikings collapsed and have won just two of their last nine games, including bottoming-out last week in a 34-6 home loss to the Colts. They're on the brink of postseason elimination, while Green Bay can win the division if they win their final two games. But I expect a close contest in this one. HC Mike Zimmer stated it's time to find out who is going to fight. Despite last week's results, the Viking defense is still 3rd best in the league in both passing yards allowed and total yards allowed per game. They've held their opponents to 21 or fewer points in 11 of 14 games (regulation) this season. Minnesota has been an underdog of six or more on just six occasions since October 19, 2014. They covered all six games, including a 22-10 outright win as a six point dog at Carolina earlier this season. I expect Minnesota to keep this close and I'm taking the points with the Vikings.
Texans Pk
This is a horrible spot for the Bengals, coming off a tough loss to the Steelers in a game in which they blew a big first half lead. Now they have to travel to Houston and face a suddenly rejuvenated Texans team. I don?t know how good Tom Savage is just yet, but what I do know is that he can and will throw the deep ball. This alone gives me reason to boost the Texans power ranking. They have not been able to utilize their outside weapons at all this season and now it appears that they can open things up. I think this QB change is an emotional boost for Houston. On the other side of the ball the defense has been playing very well all season long, especially against the pass. Houston is 6-1 at home tis season while Cincinnati is just 2-5 on the road. I think it would be foolish for the Bengals to play AJ Green this week, and even if he does play he won?t be at 100%. I had this number pegged at -3 (With Savage). This price is cheap, really cheap and its worthy of a 2 unit wager.
In the Sights, Saturday NFL?
As the week progressed the pieces to fall into place to be involved in the hours before Santa on Christmas Eve, and put #126 Houston (8:25 Eastern) into play, with some +1 to be found now, and the Texans holding value to -1.
Both ends of this one have been discussed at length already this week so let me add a few clinching details ? first the notion that for as well as the Houston defense has played recently, including a domination of Jacksonville far beyond what the scoreboard shows last Sunday, the Texans will now get Whitney Mercilus back on the field, and there is a good chance Jonathan Joseph returns as well. That just adds more talent and chemistry to this group, Mercilus having been chosen as a Pro Bowl alternate, and Joseph having made the Pro Bowl twice in the past. A negative may be the absence of Lamar Miller, who missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday, but that has been fully factored into this line, and Alfred Blue and Akeem Hunt bring enough from the reserve cast to keep this a go.
It is the flip side of the equation that has read well, and for all of the earlier discussions about being a road team out of contention on this particular day, it was laid out in fine detail by Jim Owczarski of the Cincinnati Enquirer, a piece that would be good to keep in the files for this situation in the future. In addition to already lacking motivation for this setting, having used up a great deal of energy in that grudge match vs. the Steelers last week, the Bengals were thrown the curveball of having to play at night. That means heading straight to the airport afterwards to be home for Christmas morning, their plane likely landing around 4 AM.
Cincinnati will compete like a professional team, which the Bengals have done each week since falling out of contention, but those notions of staying after practice for extra work, which I expect from the Texans, won?t be there. In a close matchup that can make a difference, and it will be the sharpness and added focus of the home team that pulls this one through.
Indianapolis vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The 11-3 Oakland Raiders have clinched an AFC playoff spot (first since 2002) and are now focused on earning a first-round bye. Meanwhile, the 7-7 Indianapolis Colts are in danger of missing out on the postseason for the second year in a row. Indianapolis is one game behind the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans in the AFC South and is two games behind the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card derby. However, the Colts' chances to win the division or claim a wild-card are exceptionally bleak.
The Colts must win both their last two games to have a chance in the AFC South. They would need the Texans to lose their last two contests, including one against the Titans, and have Tennessee lose Saturday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 9-5 Miami Dolphins currently possess the last AFC wild-card spot and the Colts would need the Dolphins, Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens to all lose their final two games. Lots of luck, as the saying goes!
"It's sort of a one-game season for us," Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck said. "I know from our perspective as an offense they're a really good defensive unit. They force turnovers, they've got good edge rushers and they've got good cover guys. It will be a great challenge." Luck is bothered by minor shoulder and thumb injures but doesn't expect to be hindered on game day. He's had a nice bounce-back season, throwing for 3,631 yards and 27 TDs (just 10 INTs) while earning a 97.1 QB rating. His running game hasn't helped much (102.3 YPG ranks 19th) and the Colts D hardly at all, ranking 27th in yards allowed (370.9 YPG) and 24.2 PPG (23rd).
However, entering this game, Luck is likely the healthier of the two starting QBs. Oakland Derek Carr is playing with an injured right pinkie finger that has affected his recent play. Still, Carr is enjoying an MVP-caliber season with 3,705 yards passing with 25 TD passes against just six interceptions (95.2 QB rating). That said, he's just 36-of-71 passing for 330 yards over the past two games (just one TD but also just one INT). A telling sign is that the Raiders' offense is also operating nearly exclusively out of the shotgun to prevent the center snap exchange from irritating Carr's injured finger.
It's true that the Colts have thrived on the road after losing their first three away games, as they will seek their fifth straight victory on enemy soil in this one (4-0 SU & ATS run!). However, slightly injured or not, Carr has re-energized the Raiders and last Sunday's win in San Diego clinched the team's first playoff berth in 14 years! Oakland has the second-best record in the AFC behind the New England Patriots (12-2) and also holds a one-game lead in the AFC West over the Kansas City Chiefs (10-4). Carr was one of SEVEN Raiders named to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday!
The Colts bring a 4-0 SU & ATS road run into this contest but Oakland has a streak of its own, as it has won four in a row at home (3-1 ATS with the loss by a half-point!) after dropping two of its first three. Oakland gets the win and cover, ending Indy's playoff hopes. Lay it.
Colts +3.5
No doubt Oakland has been having a great season, but I think this is the perfect time to step in front of them. Oakland is coming off a tight divisional road win @ SD. On deck, they have another divisional road game @ Denver. This is a bad flat spot / sandwich game for the Raiders in my opinion. This week the Raiders had an NFL team high 7 players selected to the Pro Bowl. This is a very young team, hearing about how great they are, sneaking away with all of these tight wins?. and now hear comes the Colts. They crush the Vikings last weekend thanks to the play of the O-line. They committed to the run, took some pressure off Luck and played one of their best games of the season. They should have no problem doing that again here against Oakland and I think they win outright.
Colts (7-7) at Raiders (11-3)
Indianapolis? previous four road games produced wins at Tennessee, Green Bay, the Jets and Minnesota. As visitors, Indy were underdogs in each contest before pulling off the upset and, yes, they were a ?dog to the dreadful Jets. Now, the Colts might be catching the Raiders at just the right time. Oakland is giddy after officially qualifying for the playoffs last week when knocking off the Chargers. Raiders were fortunate to narrowly win that one against the banged-up Chargers and it followed a loss to the Chiefs. Both games saw previously hot QB Derek Carr with subpar games, likely the result of a damaged pinky on his throwing hand. Oakland returns home for this game sandwiched between three divisional rivals. QB Andrew Luck was able to mow down a solid Minnesota defence last week. The unit he?ll face on this day is weaker and the team as a whole may get caught taking a breather. TAKING: COLTS +3?
Dolphins (9-5) at Bills (7-7)
It?s more naughty than nice that the Dolphins are being treated this way. Miami has won eight of its previous nine games and are currently a playoff-bound team, yet they are being given in excess of a field goal against a .500 Bills squad that will be watching the post-season on television. Does Buffalo?s win last week over laughingstock Cleveland give them some sort of credibility? We hardly think so. The Bills have not established that they can defeat a winning team, losing each time with the exception of a victory over the Patriots when New England had to start injured third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Remove that one and Buffalo?s other six wins have come against teams that are an astonishing 16-65-2 combined. While this will be Miami QB Matt Moore?s second start since replacing injured Ryan Tannehill, Moore loses nothing to Bills? Tyrod Taylor. Taking these points should put a jingle in our pockets. TAKING: DOLPHINS +4
Falcons (9-5) at Panthers (6-8 )
It might be unjust to condemn a team for its schedule, but picking winners is not about political correctness. Therefore, we will use Atlanta?s recent good fortune against them here and not feel the least bit guilty when doing so. The Falcons were a modest 7-5 before facing a pair teams that are hardly NFL calibre, walloping the Rams and 49ers by a combined 83-27. Atlanta?s fast-paced offence laid 40+ on both doormat teams while barely breaking a sweat. Before that though, these birds had dropped two of three, including a loss at physical Philadelphia. In the ?what have you done for me lately? league, the public will think the Falcs can do no wrong. We think differently. Carolina will host its final game of the year and the Panthers have won four of previous five here. They showed their chops last week in Washington. This will be the first time this year they?ll be taking home points and to a division rival to boot. Expect an appropriate response. TAKING: PANTHERS +2?
THE REST
Redskins (7-6-1) at Bears (3-11)
Prefer the do-or-die Redskins here despite laying an egg at home this past Monday to the Panthers. The Bears deserve praise for their recent efforts, but they still don?t know how to win games with their only victory in previous six games coming against lowly 49ers in a blizzard. The Redskins barely have a playoff pulse, but they?ll keep playing hard until they flat line. They?ve been solid on the road with eight covers in past 10 away games. Washington?s offence had a power outage last week, but QB Kirk Cousins, second in the NFL with 4,360 passing yards and 23 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, should bounce back. Note, weather should not be a factor here as mild temperatures are expected. TAKING: REDSKINS ?3
Buccaneers (8-6) at Saints (6-8 )
The Saints broke out of their scoring doldrums last week when laying 48 on the Cardinals. But we saw these same Bucs hold New Orleans to just 11 points just two weeks ago. Maybe Drew Brees and supporting cast will tally more than 11 this time around, but Tampa?s defence has molded into a solid unit after some underachieving with former coaching staffs. The Buccaneers had relinquished less than 13 points per game in previous five before surrendering 26 to Dallas last week. Such efforts should allow for the offence to take care of their side of the ball because the Saints can?t stop anyone, ranking near the bottom in several defensive categories. New Orleans? only covers as chalk this year were against Niners and Rams. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +3
Vikings (7-7) at Packers (8-6)
The Vikings will need more than a broken-down Adrian Peterson to ignite their struggling offence. Minnesota has averaged less than 15 points per game over the past month as opposing defences stick eight in the box while they take their chances with the Vikes? lower-ranked passing game. Minnesota?s secondary took a hit when safety Harrison Smith went down recently. We saw Andrew Luck and the Colts take full advantage last week in a 34-6 thumping of its guests. Now Minnesota will have to deal with another potent quarterback as Aaron Rodgers has a healthy roster around him again, which has coincided with Green Bay?s four-game win streak. Packers enjoy this time of year, covering 28-of-44 December home games since 2000. TAKING: PACKERS ?7
Jets (4-10) at Patriots (12-2)
Many will advise you never to spot double-digits in this league. Ignore those people. This is simply a gigantic mismatch. Perhaps the Patriots aren?t scoring as much as we?re accustomed to, but it won?t take that many for a cover here. While there are teams with less talent that these Jets, this visitor has clearly packed it in. This New York team is sure to be blown up as soon as the season ends as it lacks cornerstone players at nearly every position and a redo is in order. While the Jets-Patriots rivalry makes for a convenient storyline, it is not applicable here. Meanwhile, New England has quietly become the stingiest team in the league, surrendering just 16.6 points per game. Jets unlikely to get that many. TAKING: PATRIOTS ?16?
Titans (8-6) at Jaguars (2-12)
Might prefer going under the number in this one as Titans are winning, but not scoring, while the Jaguars aren?t winning either, but their defence is deviously competent. Under the same pretense, we?ll lean to the unpopular underdog here as spotting road points, particularly against a revenge-minded divisional opponent, is something Tennessee is not accustomed to. We?ll give the Titans their due after defeating both Denver and Kansas City the past two weeks, but this situation does not flatter them. Jags should be loose with new interim coach and they have done well against this foe with a 4-0-1 ATS mark in past five held here. Titans lack impact receivers, which also won?t help them against Jacksonville?s third-ranked pass defenders. TAKING: JAGUARS +5
Chargers (5-9) at Browns (0-14)
Oh, the Browns, they are so frightful, but to bettors they?re so delightful. And since they?re stuck on zero, make us dough, make us dough, make us dough! We made the mistake of endorsing Cleveland last week when taking double-digits to Buffalo. We?re not going to let that happen again. The Browns simply can?t compete. Still winless, they haven?t covered a spread since mid-October, only the second time they covered all year. The return of QB Robert Griffin III hasn?t helped much either as Cleveland has scored just 10 and 13 points, respectively, since coming back. The Brownies are averaging 10 points per game over past six while giving up second most in NFL at 29.1 per contest. TAKING: CHARGERS ?6
and the Cleveland money enters into the market, SD now down to -5.5 and -5 in many shops. i simply do not understand this.
There may even be as low as -4 later today. There is a lot of anti-Chargers money in the marketplace, the notion of a west coast team heading nowhere having to play on a cold day in Cleveland, although at least the weather will not be below freezing. I also believe that if the field conditions are not good there is little chance of San Diego risking Melvin Gordon, and something that has been noted here a few times recently is that Kenneth Farrow may not be a genuine NFL RB - the last two games he has only managed 94 rushing yards on 31 carries, has fumbled twice, and also missed a pass block assignment that led to a Philip Rivers fumble. That severely limits the Chargers offense, so even if they do bring the proper focus this game may turn into a fight.
49ers (1-13) at Rams (4-10)
The 49ers defeated the Rams 28-0 to open the season. They haven?t won since and that?s because the Niners are ho-ho-horrible. Los Angeles isn?t much better, but that doesn?t mean that an opportunity is not presented. If Jared Goff is to be L.A.?s quarterback of the future, he?ll have occasion to strut his stuff here with little risk. San Francisco?s stop unit is as poor a group as you?ll ever see at this level. The Niners are dead last in yards allowed, points allowed and rushing yards allowed. You have to be extremely awful to be an underdog to a Rams team that is dead last in scoring at 14.1 points per game. Fading the Niners is preferred. TAKING: RAMS ?3?
Cardinals (5-8-1) at Seahawks (9-4-1)
The Cardinals are a frustrating group as their metrics are amazingly good, but they haven?t found a way to turn those numbers into wins this season. The mental makeup of this team might be fragile, but that?s not going to prevent us from endorsing them here. While San Francisco and Los Angeles don?t have the personnel to compete with the Seahawks, this divisional rival does. Arizona ranks higher than the Seahawks in almost every offensive category. This underdog also ranks higher defensively in yards allowed and passing yards allowed. The two teams played to an unusual 6-6 tie earlier this season. Stopping Seattle?s pedestrian offence shouldn?t be an issue again and nor should scoring enough points to earn a cover. TAKING: CARDINALS +7?
Bengals (5-8-1) at Texans (8-6)
How did this one get flexed to the Christmas Eve timeslot? Controversy in Houston as expensive QB Brock Osweiler has been benched in favour of Tom Savage after the third-year backup came off the bench to lead the Texans to a comeback win over Jacksonville last week. However, that was Jacksonville, a team that leads the league in self-implosions. The Bengals have their own struggles in this lost season, but they bring enough to the table here to trump this AFC South opponent, including the return of star receiver A.J. Green. Houston?s offensive line has issues and the Bengals have upped their run defence. Savage might be an upgrade at his position, but let?s see how he does as a starter before endorsing at his short price. TAKING: BENGALS +1
Ravens (8-6) at Steelers (9-5)
The Steelers were an 11-point favourite in last year?s penultimate weekend at Baltimore. The Ravens won that game by a 20-17 count. Pittsburgh was also favoured in the initial meeting of these two just over a month ago before Baltimore won again. That makes four straight wins for John Harbaugh?s club. While Pittsburgh would like to avenge those losses, seeing will be believing. The Steelers are on a five-game winning streak but if you?ve watched them, they?ve been very fortunate to win a few of those. Close games has been the norm between these two combatants. Since Joe Flacco?s arrival, 15 of the 20 meetings vs. Steelers have been decided by a single score. Same should occur on this day. TAKING: RAVENS +5?
Broncos (8-6) at Chiefs (10-4)
Difficult to put much faith in the Chiefs on their own field with just two covers in previous 10 played here, including last week?s improbable loss to the visiting Titans. Still, more concerned with a Denver offence that still can?t seem to get on track after scoring just 13 combined points over the past two weeks. Of major concern is an offensive line that cannot protect QB Trevor Siemian (four sacks last week) or establish running lanes for a ground attack. The Chiefs haven?t lost consecutive games since October of last year. They?ve already defeated the Broncos in Denver last month and, while the defending champs own a formidable defence, K.C. has racked up a combined 83 points in the past three meetings. TAKING: CHIEFS ?3
Lions (9-5) at Cowboys (12-2)
Difficult to rate this one as there could be some motivational factors involved here, namely for the Cowboys. Should the Giants lose to the Eagles (last night?s result not available at press time), Dallas would have the No. 1 seed locked up in the NFC and the ?Boys would have nothing to play for. Detroit needs to win as they could end up playing the Packers next week for the NFC North, but even if Lions came out on short end of that one, a wild-card placing remains as a possible consolation. No matter the scenario here, a full touchdown is too many points to be spotting a competitive Detroit squad. Dallas is not covering these days either with four straight failures. TAKING: LIONS +7
Redskins / Bears Over 47.5
Although the Bears are having a White Sox kind of season, there are some positives amid the rubble of their 3-11 SU mark. Especially recent competitive efforts that confirm the team has not quit for HC John Fox (who, as a result, likely gets another year to forge a turnaround), the emergence of RB Jordan Howard (close to 1000 YR), and the likelihood journeyman QB Matt Barkley gets to be invited back in 2017 after impressing in his recent relief stint. All that being said, Chicago still continues to lose, and a positive result last Monday vs. Carolina would keep the visiting Redskins in the thick of the NFC playoff race. Even with Monday's "under" vs. Panthers, note that Jay Gruden's team still on a 16-3 "over" run since late 2015.
Dolphins +5
The betting markets seem fixated by the series history here. Yes, Rich Stadium has been a house of horrors in recent years for Miami. The Dolphins lost by 16 on this field last year, by 19 in 2014 and by 19 in 2013, part of a 1-7 SU run here in Buffalo. I couldn?t care less about the series history here. This year?s Dolphins team is better than any recent version; not an ?apples to apples? comparison.
And the markets are convinced that Miami won?t bring their ?A? game to this cold weather venue. But gametime temperatures are expected to be above freezing, and Miami certainly didn?t look all that negatively affected by much nastier conditions in New Jersey against the Jets last Saturday. It is worth noting that Miami played on Saturday last week ? they?ve got a normal prep week, while the Bills are on a short week.
The markets focus on stats, and Buffalo has a solid statistical profile. But when it comes to results, Rex Ryan?s team consistently falls short. The results don?t lie. Look at Buffalo?s wins this year. The beat the Jaguars, Browns, 49ers and Rams, all bottom feeders. They beat the Bengals when Cinci was in the midst of a ?two wins in ten games? slide. They beat the Patriots with Jacoby Brissett behind center.
Buffalo?s one legit ?signature? win came back in Week 3 at home against Arizona, and even that comes with two asterisks ? it was an awful spot for the Cards and Arizona is no juggernaut this year ? they?re a five win team here in Week 16. In short, the Bills are not a team that has stepped up and knocked off quality competition by margin at any stage of the campaign.
The biggest issue with this inflated pointspread is that the markets have downgraded the Dolphins significantly with Matt Moore taking over for the injured Ryan Tannehill behind center. Moore is no rookie, a nine year vet who made a dozen starts for the Dolphins in 2011 and who has served as the backup in Miami ever since. He threw four TD?s in Jersey last Saturday Night, displaying a gunsligher mentality, a mentality that Dolphins head coach Adam Gase appreciates.
Gase, talking about his QB: ?I like calling plays for him, because you never know what you?re going to experience in that play. I kind of like that about him. He?s aggressive. It?s fun, when we were going through preseason, how he?d develop in this offense. But I don?t think he gives himself the credit for the fact that he sees coverage well, he can throw the ball underneath, he can throw the intermediate ball. I like the fact that he?s not afraid to scramble outside of the pocket and play a little looser than a lot of coaches like. I like it.? And I like the concept of Miami playing loose and free, not tight and constrained, in a game where they?re catching too many points.
Minnesota +6? over GREEN BAY
Green Bay is rolling after four straight wins over the Eagles, Texans, Seahawks and Bears. The Packers look like the ?lead pipe lock? against these Vikings in Week 16 but rarely is it that easy. We also can't forget how the Packers almost blew it last week in their three-point win over the Bears. The Packers have had problems on their offensive line for years. Protecting Rodgers was an issue again last Sunday, as he was sacked four times. The Packers stock is sky high, which is very simply not the right time to step in. Green Bay?s win over Seattle is its most impressive of the year but perhaps lost in that is its many other stumbles. The Packers are being hyped as the team ?nobody wants to play? in the playoffs but they haven't secured a spot yet.
Minnesota appears to be in a full freefall after getting blown out 34-6 at home by the Colts last week. After losing seven of their last nine, this looks like rock bottom for a team that started the season 5-0. It's not all bad, as the Vikings pass defense ranks third in the league and despite their poor showing last week, they've been very solid all season. Minnesota has traveled well all year by allowing just 17.8 points per game in seven road contests. In their last two road games, the Vikings have given up just two total touchdowns. According to predictionmachine.com, the Vikes have an 11.8% chance to make the playoffs and although it's not much, it means they are mathematically alive but let?s put aside all that. You see, this is a divisional game between two bitter rivals that rarely ends with one team winning big. More importantly, Green Bay?s stock is high while the Vikes stock has hit rock bottom after their 28-point home loss last week. Teams? usually respond after blowouts and while the Packers have rallied a bit, this is still a fragile team that is not having a football renaissance with a fairy tale ending. Don?t allow two weeks of football by Green Bay to overshadow just how mediocre they have been the other 14 weeks and in the process. be weary about spotting significant points to this bitter enemy.
BUFFALO -4 over Miami
The Dolphins are coming off a huge 34-13 prime time win over the Jets last Saturday night. Miami can clinch a Wild Card spot with a win at Buffalo in Week 16 combined with a Denver loss. Matt Moore will make his second start at quarterback this year after an impressive first one last week. We stand by everything we said last week about Moore being a total stiff. His stat line last week was a result of two long TD passes and four Jets turnovers. In reality, the Dolphins coaching staff only let him throw 18 times. Moore could be in for a rude awakening this week against a Bills squad that has a little more to play for. The last time these two teams played it was back in October in sunny Miami but this time it will be close to freezing in Orchard Park. A second straight game on the road in a frosty climate does the Dolphins no favors. Just three weeks ago they were dominated 38-6 in Baltimore and Miami hasn't won in Buffalo since 2011.
If you listen to the media, Rex Ryan is on the hot seat. If you ask Ryan, he says everything is fine. If you ask the players, they have their head coaches' back. Running back LeSean McCoy, offensive lineman Richie Incognito and members of the defense spoke out in favor of Ryan this week. The Bills are 7-7 after rolling the Browns last week but they still have a shot at the post season. Ryan might be a blowhard but traditionally his players love to go to battle with him. All of the heat this week has been on the coach, leaving the players free to prepare for this important home game. If defending their coach adds to their motivation, we'll take it. Buffalo is one of the most hostile places to play in the league, especially when it?s cold and snowing or just cold.
There's plenty of negative press coming out of Buffalo this week but it's important to ignore all off that nonsense when making your picks. When talking about the Dolphins, the pundits says it's a ?must win? because they have a chance to clinch a playoff spot. The ?must win? angle was used to back the Giants on Thursday along with numerous others over the years and it?s a horrible angle to use. It's nothing more than a talking point that seldom works out. We faded the Dolphins last week in New York and got buried in that game. The propensity for most is to back off after a game like that but we?re sticking with it. The Dolphins last four wins came against the Rams, San Fran, Arizona and the Jets. Other than beating Pittsburgh in Week 6, the Fish have not only lost to every playoff team they played, they got steamrolled by 15, 13 and 32 points in three of them. Miami?s cold weather history and lack of being challenged by anyone other than Baltimore the last five weeks makes them extremely vulnerable here while the Bills come in with a ?Win one for the Gipper? attitude. The ?Gipper? in this case is Rex Ryan, a player?s coach to be sure.
NEW ORLEANS -3? over Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have won five of their last six games with their only loss over that stretch coming at the 12-2 Cowboys last Sunday night. While they were able to cover the 6?-point spread, the Bucs probably should have been run off the field after turning it over four times. The Cowboys turned TD?s into FG?s with bad penalties at the wrong time. Despite their recent success, the Bucs offense has been suspect. They've managed to score more than 20 points just once during their five-game winning streak and that was against a Chargers pass defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league. Just two weeks ago in Tampa, the Bucs picked off Saints quarterback Drew Brees three times but could still only muster up 16 points in a win. Opposing offenses have picked on the Saints all season but Winston managed just 184 yards on 16 of 26 completions with no touchdowns.
The Saints remain alive in the playoff hunt at 6-8 and while their chances aren't great, they should have some extra motivation for this one. New Orleans is a tale of two teams. They typically struggle outdoors on the road but they put up big offensive numbers at home in the dome. The Saints are always capable of putting up big points, as they showed in last week's 48-41 win at Arizona. The Cards' defense ranked fourth in the league before the Saints came to town last week. The Saints also put up over 40 points on a Rams unit that ranked 11th. The Saints' ability to score and extend drives allows their defense time to rest. One can have great success backing Sean Peyton and the Saints in the right spots against defenses that are bound to wear down when facing his unique offense. Tampa Bay does not offer the same opportunity because they simply don?t score enough. We've been scouring the schedule for victims of the Saints and found one last week in the Cardinals and absolutely trust we found another one this week in the Bucs.
CAROLINA +145 over Atlanta
Thanks to inferior competition, the banged up Falcons haven't missed a beat without star wide receiver Julio Jones. Atlanta has put up more than 40 points the last two weeks in wins over the Rams and 49ers but we?re not impressed. Prior to their back-to-back games against the two worst teams in the NFC, the Falcons appeared to be stuck in their traditional second half freefall. They lost on the road in Philly, lost at home to the Chiefs and blew back-to-back games against the Chargers and Seahawks after a 4-1 start to the season. The Falcons need this game to remain in front of the Buccaneers and in the hunt for a possible #2 Seed.
Carolina reveled in the role of the spoiler Monday night. The Cats took down the Redskins 26-15 in a game that wasn't really that close and while we are not in the habit of playing a team that looked so good in prime time the previous week, there are exceptions to every rule and this is one of those times. The Panthers were plenty motivated last week and will be even more so this week with a chance to make life miserable for a division rival. The Panthers already lost to Atlanta earlier in the year but that was in Atlanta and the Panthers still put up 33 points. That was at a time when Carolina was going bad but they?re peaking now with back-to-back very impressive wins over San Diego and Washington while holding that pair to a mere 16 and 15 points respectively.
Big wins over weak teams is exactly that but those skewed numbers stick out to influence the line in a big way. Needing to win also has influence on the number. Don?t make the mistake of backing skewed numbers. Atlanta is not coming close to putting up 40 points again and might not even score half of that here. The Panthers don't want to watch another team celebrate winning the NFC South title that they have won the past three years in their house and they're playing well enough to stop it. Frankly, we don?t see any reason whatsoever that warrants the Falcons being road chalk here and thus, we?ll skip over the points and play
Carolina to win outright.
Jets vs. Patriots
Play: Jets +17
I am making a small play on the Jets Saturday afternoon. I am not saying to bet the house on them, that?s what my 10* Game of the Week is for, but I will advise a 1* wager on the Jets plus the double digits.
There are way too many angles and trends supporting the Jets and going against the Patriots to ignore. The Patriots are the superior team, but there is line value here I feel in a matchup that has seen the last 7 meetings decided by 7 points or less. New England is fat and happy after beating the Broncos last week and clinching the division and a Playoff berth. Do I think they are going to completely lay down? No, but I can?t see them just ?mashing the gas? for all 4 quarters.
New England is 1-5 ATS their L6 following a win against Denver, including 0-3 ATS at home. They are also 0-7 ATS the L7 meetings against the Jets. The last two times they laid double digits it was a 1 and 3 point game. Now, I know the Jets are way down this year, but it?s the end of the season and I feel there are possible jobs on the line.
The last time the Jets were a double digit favorite? It was 2014. They are 4-0 ATS the L4 times they have gotten doubles. The only time in the last 10 years when they got more than 14 points was in 2007 when the Patriots laid 21.5 and won by only 10.
History as a way of repeating itself. With the Patriots 3-9 ATS as a double digit home favorite against their division since 2007 , look for this one to stay in the 13-14 point range.
Of the last 10 matchups, New England has never outgained the Jets by more than 70 yards.
San Diego / Cleveland Under 43.5
In a game that pits two teams playing out the string with fading offensive units, we?ll take the under. The winless Browns? offense is a disaster, averaging just 10.3 point per game the last six weeks. In fact, Cleveland hasn?t topped the 14-point barrier since Week 8 and overall at home this year they are 2-5 to the under while averaging just 14.7 points per game. The Chargers, meanwhile, may be the most disinterested team in the league today. Coming off a brutal home loss to division rival Oakland last week, the Bolts now head East on Christmas Eve to play in the cold in a meaningless game. The Chargers offense has also stalled in recent weeks, averaging just 19.6 points per game the last six weeks.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Teams that are 16 point favorites or more have unsurprisingly been 49-3 in the past 25 years, with the last loss coming in 1995 when the eventual Super Bowl Champ ? Dallas Cowboys were upset in week 14 as 17.5 point favorites in a divisional game against Washington. The Patriots are a 16.5 point favorite this week and the Steelers are a 16.5 point initial favorite over the Browns in week 17. The (12-2) Patriots have won 5 straight as Touchdown Tom Brady continues his NFL revenge tour, as he is averaging 7.8 NYPP with a 22-2 TD-INT ratio. However, in the recent 5 game win streak, it has been the defense that has improved their play, holding opponents to an average of 14 points per game. Bryce Petty has been given the start against the AFC-leading Pats and he has been the worst of the QBs that have suited up for the Gang Green this season, averaging 5.2 NYPP with a 3-6 TD-INT ratio. The advanced stats model shows value on the Under, so UNDER (43.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to the Patriots (-16.5).
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
In a game that has serious draft positioning implications, two of the worst teams in football square off in an NFC West sparring session. All indications are that No. 1 selection, Jared Goff, will give it a go this week as the 5 games he has started have all resulted in losses with an average margin of loss of -20. Goff has an atrocious 4.2 NYPP and 2015 offensive Rookie of the Year, Todd Gurley, has not provided any ground support at 3.2 yards per rush. The Niners are riding a 13 game losing streak, with their last win coming against the LA Rams in week 1. While Kaepernick has not been getting it done through the air at 5.3 NYPP, the Niners have actually been quite effective on the ground, averaging the 4.8 yards per rush. The advanced stats model sees value on the road dog with a bit more offense getting it done on the road, so it is a Strong Opinion at 49ers (+5). Lean to Under (39.5).
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -7.5
Seattle knows that wins over Arizona and San Francisco in its final two games of the regular season effectively guarantees a first round bye in the playoffs. The Seahawks are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season (4-2-1 ATS), and it's difficult to imagine a scenario under which Arizona (5-8 ) shows any interest in playing on Christmas Eve before one of the most difficult atmospheres in the NFL.
Seattle possesses a decent offense that is 0.1 yards per play better than average (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yards per play), but the Seahawks' attack becomes potent on its home turf. Indeed, Seattle is averaging 28.0 points and 379 points per game at 6.2 yards per play at home this season.
Quarterback Russell Wilson is completing 68.1% of his pass attempts at home for 264 yards at 7.9 yards per pass play. Seattle should move the ball effectively against an Arizona defense that is allowing 29.7 points and 304 total yards at 10.2 yards per point on the road. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 64.7% of their pass attempts at home against Arizona's secondary.
The scheduling circumstances also favor Seattle as the Cardinals are playing their fifth road game in seven weeks and were eliminated from postseason contention with last week's 48-41 loss to New Orleans. Meanwhile, Seattle is coming off a ho-hum 24-3 home win over the Rams last Thursday and has had a few extra days to prepare for Saturday's clash with Arizona.
From a technical standpoint, Arizona is a money-burning 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall, 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, 1-5 ATS in its last six games versus .501 or greater opposition and 2-12 ATS in its last fourteen games after yielding 351+ total yards in its previous game.
The Seahawks are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 December affairs, 11-5 ATS in their last sixteen games versus teams with a losing record, 35-17 ATS a home versus .499 or worse opposition and have covered four straight home games.
With Seattle standing at 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series, lay the points with the Seahawks.
My comp play for Saturday is the Over in the Cardinals-Seahawks game.
Yeah, yeah, I know the first time these teams played on October 23rd under the Thursday night lights we witnessed one of the ugliest displays of football in years, as the teams played to that memorable 6-6 draw in overtime!
Obviously, an easy Under. Why then am I going Over today? Simple, Arizona has nothing to play for, and has been letting it rip of late, as they hit the Emerald City with Overs in 5 in a row, and 6 of their last 7.
For their part, Seattle has played Overs in 2 of their last 3, and the Over is 4-2 their last 6 played at Century Link Field this season.
2 of the last 3 series meetings between the teams in Seattle have landed Over the total, so let's look for the points to add up to an Over here on Week 16.
2* ARIZONA-SEATTLE OVER
Chargers vs. Browns
Play: Browns +5
I know it is hard to make a play on the Browns when you consider just how pathetic their season has been but they are at home for the last time this season and they're hosting a fading Chargers team. San Diego has lost (and failed to cover) three straight games heading into this one. As a result, don't be surprised if the Browns are the hungrier team here as they are so desperate to get a win and avoid that dreaded 0-16 that is staring them in the face. With being eliminated from playoff contention, I just don't see the Chargers having much fight left in them for this game. Also, as a non-divisional road favorite, San Diego is on a 5-10 ATS run. The Browns are on a 4-1 ATS run against AFC West opponents and the Chargers are on a 3-9 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the past three seasons combined. It may be "ugly" but it should prove to be the right call based on home field, situational, and motivational factors here. Grab the ugly home dog.
Mid Tenn St. -7 over HAWAII
Hawaii, eligible at 6-7 via an exemption, is bowling for the first time since 2010. The Rainbow Warriors finished alone in second place in the MWC West division this year and are 4-4 in bowl games played at home in Aloha Stadium. That?s nice but Hawaii might be the worst team to play in a bowl game in the last decade. The Warriors were blown out a bunch of times and lost to every team they played that had a pulse. Hawaii defeated cupcakes only.
Last year, the Blue Raiders lost to Western Kentucky 58-28. This year they lost to WKU by one point in double OT. Last year, MTSU lost to Louisiana Tech, 45-16. This year they beat Tech by four points, 38-34. Last year, the Blue Raiders lost 45-31 in the Popeye?s Bahamas Bowl to Western Michigan, which is rather significant, as we point out below.
Just about all coaches have a good plan. All know their Xs and Os. All but a few have sufficient talent and resources on hand to fashion at least a marginal winner in their leagues. The bottom line is whether the coach can get his players to "do it;" to buy into the program's values and the plan to win. There's a lot we like about first-year Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich, but his first Hawaii team is not yet mature enough to really understand what it takes to win at this level. The Warriors will be outclassed here on Christmas Eve by a far more mature Middle Tennessee squad, who is fully prepared for this one and whose offense has a very favorable matchup, regardless of whether ailing quarterback Brent Stockstill plays.
Middle is now no longer a stranger to postseason distractions in an island paradise, having lost the Bahamas Bowl last year. But while the 2015 Blue Raiders were a little too satisfied with just being there, this year's bunch is in it to win it, and Hawaii is not prepared do anything about it. The biggest plays require having not only one team in perfect condition, but both. They require the ability to lose any single player to injury without major detriment. They require at least one positional group mismatch that the opposing team simply cannot handle. They require you to be able to move the number a touchdown to the bad and still feel the same way. This game checks all those key boxes and a lot more. This year it?s Hawaii that is just happy to be here and will likely pay the price that Middle paid last year. This line is very likely to move up to -7?, -8 or 8? so get in early. We?re calling Middle in a blowout so if you miss the best number, you can choose how to proceed.
