4:10 PM MLB [915] TOTAL o8-105 (Toronto Blue Jays vrs Tampa Bay Rays) (Estrada/Odorizzi)
2:10 PM MLB [917] Boston Red Sox -133 (Porcello/Tepesch)
4:15 PM MLB [920] Kansas City Royals -106 (Tomlin/Vargas)
3:00 PM NHL [59] TOTAL o5+100 (New York Rangers vrs Ottawa Senators)
1 unit bet pays 12....betdsi line...evening parlay later....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Porcello Getting Hit Hard In 2017: Twins +1.5
It?s breakfast and baseball in Minnesota on Saturday morning, as the Boston Red Sox come to town for a 3-game series. Even though the Twins have a better winning percentage coming into Friday?s game, and a higher run differential, they look to be moneyline underdogs at home in each of the three games. With Boston?s 4-6 away record, this could be a spot in which one of those ?dog chase? methods of betting a series could play well, as it is unlikely that the Twins get swept at home. This game has opened with an early line favoring the Red Sox at -148 at BetOnline, while the O/U total has opened at 9.5 with a -125 shade to the Under.
Minnesota will not be without its challenges though in avoiding a sweep. A poor run of starting pitching has their bullpen taxed. They will turn to just recently called up Nick Tepesch to start this game. He?s been stretched out as a starter in AAA to start the season so the move makes sense. Tepesch missed all of 2015 due to injury and was finally cut loose by the Rangers in 2016 ? bouncing around to the A?s, Royals, and Dodgers for the rest of the year. Tepesch has pitched well in AAA for the Twins, putting up a 2.00 ERA over 18 innings pitched and averaging six innings per start. He?s always been a ground ball specialist and counts on weak contact to get batters out. His hard-hit ball percentages are low, which offsets the amount of balls that are pulled off of him. Think of weak, rolled-over ground balls to the left side of the infield and you have the result that Tepesch is looking for against batters.
Rick Porcello starts this game for the Red Sox and he has been getting squared up quite often this year. Compiling a 1-4 record over six starts and 4.14 FIP, it is Porcello?s spike in hard-hit rate to 39.5% that should have Boston fans concerned. It is not a surprise then that he is posting his highest HR/FB% in his career at 15.2%. He is allowing a .286 batting average to right-handers on the year, which will allow quite a few teams to stack advantageous lineups against him.
As has often been the case this year, I will turn to the run line home underdog for wagering value in a matchup that is more of a toss-up in my mind than in the betting public?s. We can currently wager on the Twins +1.5 at home for just -125
Boston at Minnesota
Play: Boston -151
However, I will rarely lay in this price range ($1.50) when it is an exceptionally strong situation and i see solid line value. That is the case here with the Red Sox after they fell short a second straight day at Minnesota yesterday. Boston has not lost three straight games this entire season and I don't expect that to change here! The Red Sox will have Rick Porcello on the mound and he has a stellar 1.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season. The biggest problem for Porcello this season has been a lack of run support but that should change today. Nick Tepesch gets the start for the Twins and he has a 2.00 ERA in his 3 starts this season but those were in the minors. Also, he hasn't pitched in 2 weeks so his pitch count will be limited here plus I don't expect him to be sharp since he's been on such a layoff. Keep in mind, Tepesch is 9-18 with a 4.68 ERA in his MLB career and has only made 1 start at the MLB level since 2014. The Red Sox are 8-4 in day games this season while Minnesota, even with yesterday's win, is still only 2-5 in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season.
Toronto at Tampa Bay
Play: Toronto +107
The rebounding Toronto Blue Jays take on the Tampa Bay Rays in a Saturday afternoon event from the Trop with first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET in Tampa, Florida.
The Jays send Marco Estrada to the hill today and the Toronto right-hander is coming off an impressive outing against the New York Yankees. Estrada has turned in four straight strong turns, in fact. The Jays right-hander held the Bronx Bombers to just seven singles and a single run over seven innings, recording 5 K's without a walk on 12 swinging strikes.
Estrada has increased his velocity this season and his 12 mph differential between his fastball and change-up has moved him up the starting pitching rankings in the American league. Estrada has returned to the form that sports an elite 34.5% chase rate and 12.9% swinging strike percentage. The Jays starter has also increased his ground ball ratio by 8 percent this season over his career number.
Jake Odorizzi will make his second start since returning from the disabled list on Saturday and this variable alone makes the Tampa starter a play against. The trend, a second turn off the disabled list, for a starting pitcher that throws to contact, offers overwhelming evidence to fade.
Odorizzi doesn't miss enough bats and has an average slash line this season, mediocre at best, of .300/.350/.760. When Odorizzi is successful he is creating heavy fly balls but he has yet to outperform his FIP in each of the last two seasons and today's contest against the Rays and Estrada is nothing short of an uphill battle. Odorizzi is allowing a ridiculously high 40 percent hard contact rate this year after a similar ratio (38%) in 2016.
Cleveland @ Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +104
Kansas City is back home where it is 8-7, including Friday's 3-1 victory, compared to 2-11 on the road. The Royals have their best pitcher on the mound in Jason Vargas, who is 4-1 with a 1.42 ERA. The Royals have won four of his five starts, including Monday's 6-1 win over the White Sox when the left-hander gave up a run and five hits in six innings. Vargas has walked only five batters in 31 innings this year and struck out 29. He also has been unbeatable at home where is 3-0 with with a microscopic 0.44 ERA. Josh Tomlin has been getting shelled for the Indians even though his team bailed him out his last start with a 12-4 win. He did allow four runs and eight hits in five innings to raise his ERA to 8.87 for the season despite the win. Kansas City has won 19 of Vargas' last 26 home starts dating to last year.
Comp play for Saturday is the Rangers to make it 3 straight wins over the Senators.
After winning the first 2 games on home ice, Ottawa ran into a wall at Madison Square Garden, as Henrik Lundqvist has regained his confidence while Senators netminder Craig Anderson has allowed an alarming 13 goals over the last 3 games in this series!
With the Senators now pressing - just 2 goals in the last 2 games - and the Rangers looking relaxed now that they have knotted-up the series at 2-2, look for the Rangers to wrest home ice advantage away from the Senators this Saturday afternoon as they fly back home one win away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Go with the Rangers.
Down 2-0, the New York Rangers have shown resiliency, and this series is tied 2-2. Now they're going to take a 3-2 lead, and back the Ottawa Senators in a corner.
The Rangers dominated at Madison Square Garden, in Games 3 and 4, led by center Oscar Lindberg, who scored three of his team's eight goals in New York. Perspective: Lindberg had just eight goals in 65 games this season.
Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist made things look routine in the back-to-back wins, stopping 48 of 50 shots, and should bring his confidence to Canada's capital, while leading his team to a road victory.
Remember, in the opening round, the Rangers won Game 6 in Montreal to seize momentum and went home to secure the series. I'm looking for an identical final of 3-2, and the Rangers to take a 3-2 series lead.
4* NY RANGERS
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks +109
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies continue their series on Saturday. The Diamondbacks as underdogs have a lot of value in this one. I am very surprised to see the Diamondbacks as underdogs considering the pitching match up. On the mound for the Diamondbacks is Patrick Corbin who has pitched really well this season but just hasn't got much run support. He comes into this game with a 2.29 ERA and gave up zero runs in his last start.
On the other side of this match up is Tyler Anderson who has really struggled this season.He comes into this game with a 1-3 record and a 7.71 ERA on the season. I think he will struggle again against the Diamondbacks bats. Some trends to note. Diamondbacks are 10-2 in Corbins last 12 starts vs. Rockies. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Corbins last 5 road starts vs. Rockies.
In the Sights, Saturday NBA?
I don?t have to go into major detail here because the talking point has been out there throughout the week ? the betting markets are queuing up around the block these days to bet home teams in the First Half when they are down 0-2 in the NBA playoffs, and those doing so are on one of the greatest trend runs in memory, a perfect slate over the past two seasons. But that has also led markets to do what they do, which means altering the price structures. Hence you can now play the Warriors at -1.5 for the first 24 minutes at Salt Lake City tonight, and there are several good shops at -1. That puts #509 Golden State First Half (8:30 Eastern) into pocket.
There is a logical element of sports that tells us that teams down 0-2 will bring their best in the early stages of a Game #3 at home. The Jazz will have such an effort. But there is also the logic of a team with a 2-0 advantage letting up just a bit, and I don?t see that coming from the Warriors at all. This team has a high level of basketball consciousness, and knows full well how getting this series over in four games sets up the rest of their playoff run. Golden State has won the First Half of the opening two games by counts of 60-47 and 58-46, which means that 10 full points can be shaved off of those margins and a Warriors ticket will still win tonight. I do not see the changing of the venue leading to that degree of scoreboard adjustment.
After playing a low-scoring game to open the weekend series off on Friday, look for things to return to normal for the Yankees and Cubs. "Normal" as in expect some runs to be scored in this Saturday night interleague showdown.
Even with Friday's Under, the Yankees are still 6-1 Over the total in their last 7 games, and now 17-10 Over the total for the year.
As for the Cubs, they are still 7-2 Over their last 9 games, and now 18-10 Over the total for the season.
Jordan Montgomery has made 4 starts this season, and 3 of the 4 have played Over the total, while Brett Anderson has seen each of his last 3 starts land Over the total.
After a day of goose eggs on Friday, expect crooked numbers up on the scoreboard on Saturday night.
Yankees-Cubs Over the total.
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -108
I like the value here with the Phillies at basically a pick'em at home against rival Washington. I've liked what I have seen from this young Philadelphia team who has a +5 run differential, despite their 12-16 overall record. They also own a winning record at home at 7-5. The biggest thing here is the Phillies have what I feel is a significant edge on the mound, which they need against this high-powered Nationals team, who may or may not have Bryce Harper in the lineup.
Phillies are going to send out Vincent Velasquez, who is trending in the right direction with a 3.64 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in his last 3 starts. While he allowed 4 run in an earlier start against the Nationals he had 10 strikeouts in 4 innings. I like his chances of out performing Washington's A.J. Cole, who is being forced into the rotation to fill in for Joe Ross. Cole wasn't good in 8 starts last year (5.17 ERA) and has a 6.63 ERA in 19 innings with Triple-A Syracuse this season.
CINCINNATI -1? +168 over San Francisco
Amir Garrett is a big lefty that?s still new to pitching (3rd season on the mound). His control last year was not great and thus, the move to AAA in the 2nd half proved to be a challenge, as his big fastball wasn't generating enough strikeouts. The synopsis after last year was that he was just a few adjustments away from reaching the big leagues and here we are. Garrett has made five starts and thrown 30 innings. Over that span, he has four pure quality starts with a BB/K split of 10/26. Garrett has a heavy fastball that works away from the batter. His slider is another tool that is quickly developing into a plus offering, and his changeup has seen marked improvement too. Garrett quickly moved up the minor league ladder and he?s quickly improving in every area. He has an elite groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 51%/16%/34%. He?s intelligent on the mound and has a wealth of pure talent. It?s almost scary to think that he?s been pitching for just three years after starting his sports career playing basketball for St. John's University before switching to baseball. For all of you in keeper fantasy leagues, Garrett is a major target you should be gunning for. For this purpose, however, he?s facing a weak hitting team with a horrible rookie starting.
Ty Blach comes in with a 2.55 ERA after two starts and seven relief appearances covering 18 innings, but it?s a pure luck-driven number that is not sustainable. The 6-2, 200-pound Blach surprised many when he outdueled Clayton Kershaw to lock up a post-season berth for the Giants last year. Despite that, he lost out to Matt Cain for a spot in the rotation as the teams? #5 starter. Frankly, that?s all one needs to know because losing out to Cain is not easy. In 18 innings, Blach has walked six batters but only struck out five. He has a 3% swing and miss rate so he?s at the mercy of batted balls in play. His xERA is 7.22, which is MLB?s worst mark among pitchers with 15 or more innings. Blach is a career minor leaguer with 600 innings pitched in the minors, where he struck out just 414 and posted an oppBA of .278. These starters that have been riding buses for years have some appeal. They come in rather relaxed with nothing to lose. They have seen everything and experienced everything and just keep plodding along. However, Blach?s ERA is a complete mirage that is going to get blown up. Aside from that, the Giants have very little going for them while the Reds are loaded with talent that looks completely legit in the early going.e?s getting murdered by his brutal skills and we?re going to fade him each and every time he starts until he starts no more.
OAKLAND -1? +150 over Detroit
We?re not going to go into a lot of detail regarding Jesse Hahn because this wager is not about him. It is worth noting that Hahn is having a decent year thus far and has had great success versus the Tigers in the past with an oppBA of just .197 against current Tigers. However, our focus here is fading Jordan Zimmermann, a pitcher with a dead arm that we?ve been fading for quite some time now.
Zimmermann has one quality start in five tries. He had the hope of a rebound in 2017 after a strong spring but so far, that has been far from the case (6.18 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) and his skills give zero reasons for optimism. Zimmerman has a lousy BB/K split of 9/16 in 28 frames. His groundball rate is the lowest in the majors (24%) among pitchers with four or more starts and he?s accomplished this without bad luck. Zimmermann?s hit and strand rate are right around league average so he?s not getting murdered there. He?s getting murdered by his brutal skills and we?re going to fade him each and every time he starts until he starts no more.
Arizona -1? +195 over COLORADO
We?re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado?s home games this season and we?ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it?s the Rocks or the opposition and we?ll be playing it regardless of who?s pitching. We?re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12? range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park
Mike Leake ? 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. The drip continues as Leake boasts a ridiculous 1.35 ERA. I can?t argue against a sub 3.50 SIERA and xFIP as well, even if he has a 84.9% LOB rate to his name. Thing is, Leake has always been sporadic and gone on respectable stretches before entering a void of despair, which means I?m still playing this matchup-by-matchup regardless of the fact that he should clearly be owned everywhere. Good news is that it?s the Braves + Marlins next and if he?s cruising after that, I?d be marketing him around like Rod Tidwell.
Jordan Montgomery ? 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. Ehhhh the line looks a bit worse than how he pitched as he held the David Cone mentality of pitching and often pitched around batters he didn?t want to face to avoid damage in certain innings. I still like Monty a lot for a good stream (think more like 5 Ks per start, though) and would even consider him for a roster spot if he didn?t have the Cubs next. Womp womp.
-- The Diamondbacks are 10-0 OU (3.45 ppg) when Patrick Corbin starts on the road when they won in his last start in which he delivered a quality start since Jul 02, 2013.
The Royals (-9.6 units), Giants (-9.1) and Blue Jays (-12.6) have been the worst bets of the season so far. But the good news is that one of them should soon bounce back and be undervalued in price for a few weeks. It's Toronto's starting rotation that stands out. They have the ability to carry them while waiting for the bats to wake up.
Kansas City averages an MLB-low 2.9 runs a game and get a visit from Cleveland this weekend. The Royals have washed off the strench of losing nine straight and have won two of their last four. The Royals are second-best at 16-9-2 to the Under this season. More on this series below.
The best Under team in baseball is surprisingly the Red Sox at 18-9-1. Boston led MLB in runs scored last season, but are averaging just 3.9 runs a game this season. The good new is they allow only 3.8. They go to Minnesota to play the Twins who won't go away in the AL Central and sit only a half-game behind first-place.
WARRIORS AT JAZZ
PLAY: JAZZ 1H +1.5
Strategy remains the same with these partial game plays, and this will be the final one for this round of the NBA playoffs. The Jazz figure to come out with great intensity in their initial home game vs. Golden State. I don?t have confidence Utah can get past the Warriors over the full 48 minutes, but I like their chances of seeing them play their best ball in the first 12/24 minutes. The angle continues to pay off handsomely, so once more it?s a 1Q/1H split on the Jazz.
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners - Over 8.5
The Mariners are down to their 7th starting option with Felix Hernandez and Drew Smyly on the DL. On Saturday, Chase DeJong gets the call again and hopes to avoid another disaster on the mound.
Chase DeJong made his first MLB start at Cleveland last Friday, and he was literally chased from the field to the tune of 6 earned runs over just 2.2 innings pitched. He gave up hits to half of the batters he faced (18), struck out one, and walked two. The notes on DeJong peg him as a classic AAAA player, with fringe secondary pitches that won?t work multiple times through a MLB batting order. He has had some success in long relief this year, but DeJong is can?t be trusted to not give up at least some runs on Saturday night. This will leave some innings to the Seattle bullpen, who I have been fading recently as a run giving sieve.
Facing DeJong will be Martin Perez of the Rangers, who has had serious issues with command to start the season. With a few exceptions, the Seattle lineup has patience and will draw walks when they are there for the taking. Perez?s WHIP of 1.83 and 20/19 K/BB rate is an indication that will be the case, and with Seattle currently hot on the offensive side of the ball a shutout is not likely. This should be a high scoring game on both sides, making the Over of 8.5 tremendous value on Saturday night.
Texas vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Texas won the AL West in 2016 with a 95-67 record but it's been a slow start in 2017 for the Rangers. Rougned Odor's two-run HR in the 13th inning last night provided Texas with a 3-1 win, its second straight coming off a four-game losing streak. Texas is now 13-17 on the season and plays the second contest of this three-game series tonight in Seattle. The Mariners opened the season 2-8 and currently have the same record as the Rangers, at 13-17.
Tonight's pitching matchup features Martin Perez (1-4, 4.26 ERA) against Chase De Jong (0-2, 11.05 ERA). Perez comes in off three staright losing starts, allowing 11 ERs on 21 hits and eight walks in 15.1 innings during that stretch (6.45 ERA). Perez's lone victory in 2017 came back on April 9 vs Oakland. He did not factor in the decision against the Mariners on April 14, when he gave up one run and six hits in five innings. He is 5-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 career appearances (11 starts / team is 7-4) against Seattle in his career.
De Jong is temporarily taking Felix Hernandez's spot in the rotation. Seattle's ace is on the DL and De Jong makes his second major-league start in this one. It has to go better than his first, when he allowed six runs on nine hits in just 2.2 innings on Sunday in a 12-4 loss at Cleveland. De Jong was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in March in a deal for infielder Drew Jackson and right-hander Aneurys Zabala.
De Jong's stay in the rotation may be a little more than temporary. James Paxton was just placed on the DL Friday, joining ace Felix Hernandez and prized free agent Drew Smyly. Seattle scored just one run last night but recorded 11 hits. That follows a combined 19 hits in back-to-back victories. Nelson Cruz is on a 14-game hitting streak, in which he has five HRs and 19 RBI. Perez has a history of pitching well at home but really struggling on the road. My bet is the Mariners will out-hit and out-score the Rangers in this one.
San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds - Under F5
The Under was slammed once it opened on this matchup in Cincinnati. Even with the line move our handicappers thinks it is still ok to go with the flow.
San Francisco has had little to cheer about this season with their awful start, but one bright note has been the results of Ty Blach as he fills in the rotation. Blach should be hitting his physical prime right now, and has improved in each year through the minor leagues. Including his bullpen work early in the season, Blach has put up a 2.55 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and a .161 batting average against. That BAA obviously won?t continue, but his .239 BAA in AAA last year over 162.2 innings is very real. Both of his starts have went under the listed total this season.
Lefty Amir Garrett takes the mound for the Reds, and he has been great at home this season. The rookie has been bit by the long ball, which is not like him considering he has not run a HR/FB% over 9.2% in his last 4 seasons of minor league ball. He?s allowing just a .218 batting average against over 30 innings pitched, which is excellent.
The real story here is that San Francisco and Cincinnati both struggle mightily against left handed pitchers. San Francisco only averages 3.3 runs and a .240 batting average, and the Reds 3.3 runs and a .187 batting average. One if not both of these starters figures to have an excellent game here. The first five inning line has not come out yet, but I will be backing these pitchers and taking the Under F5
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8?
The real value in this game lies with the total. The Phillies average 5.5 runs per game at home while the Nationals average 7.1 on the road. The Phillies have played over the total in 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8. Neither team is sending forward their best pitchers here either which adds more value to the over.
Velasquez has a home ERA of 7.05 on the season in 3 starts and has struggled against the Nationals with a 6.30 ERA. Every single game Velasquez has started this year the total has gone over!
St. Louis at Atlanta
Play: Over 8.5
The St. Louis Cardinals are currently near the very bottom in baseball in runs scored. This is coming off of a season where they were third in the NL in runs and had several guys break out. The Cards have shown some signs of breaking out of their terrible slump with some good offensive performances against Toronto and Cincinnati last week. The Braves offense has taken a step forward in 2017, and I really like the mix of youngsters and veterans on the team. Matt Kemp has been a boon to the lineup since coming over from San Diego last season. If some of the young guys start figuring it out, this Atlanta lineup could do some serious damage. Michael Wacha and Julio Teheran are scheduled to get the ball on Saturday afternoon, and I think they'll both have their hands full. Play the OVER
Penguins vs. Capitals
Play: Over 5
So far three of four in this series have gone below the posted number, but we?re expecting a more wide-open affair in Game 5. The Pens have a 3-1 lead and clearly the the Capitals will be pushing the pace from start to finish. Washington outshot the Pens 38-18 in Game 4 and were still saddled with a 3-2 loss. But the Capitals? break-neck speed tonight will also create opportunities for the opportunistic Pens on the other end as well. In our professional opinion, the overall ?situation? definitely lends itself to a higher-scoring affair. And note, the numbers/trends also point to a ?shoot-out,? as Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of 11 this year when playing with two days rest, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in seven of 11 in the exact same position. Looks like we may have a ?barn-burner? on our hands in Game 5, consider the OVER.
Marlins at Mets
Play: Over 9
The Mets and Miami opened their 3 game series in New York with a high scoring 8-7 Mets victory and we see a bunch of runs scoring again tonight. Tonight's starters are for Miami RH Odrisamer Despaigne (2016: 0-2, 5.93 ERA) and he faces the Mets RH Robert Gsellman (1-2, 6.75 ERA). Despaigne was recalled from Triple-A New Orleans as the Marlins put Chen on the DL with arm fatigue. Despaigne came over to Miami late in September but did pitch against these Mets on September 27th. In that game he pitched 1 1/3 inning of relief giving up 3 runs. As for Gsellman he has allowed 11 runs in 9 2/3 innings in the two games against the Marlins this year. Another long night for both pitching staffs in New York. Backing our selection is the fact that the Over is 11-1 in the Mets last 12 vs. a team with a losing record and the fact that the Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between the clubs.
New York Red Bulls vs. Philadelphia Union
PPL Park ? Saturday, May 6 ? 7 pm ET
It will be Seis de Mayo on Saturday and the Philadelphia Union (0-4-4, 8 GF-14 GA) will still be winless. At this point, with Bradley Wright-Phillips (4 goals; +110 Anytime Goalscorer, Bet365) and the Red Bulls (5-1-3, 11 GF-10 GA) in the City of Brotherly Love, even earning a point with a Draw may seem like progress for the host. The L5 meetings in this series reveals the Both Teams To Score ?Yes? Prop going 4-1, the Red Bulls and unbeaten 4-1-0 (14 GF-6 GA) with the Over 4-1 L5. Although Philadelphia is due to win one, this won?t be the spot and backing Jay Simpson and 2nd-place New York at the crooked-looking fair price seems logical in this Week 10 affair.
Fire vs. Galaxy
Play: Over 2?
This match up between LA Galaxy and Chicago Fire looks like it will have a good splattering of goals in it.
Both sides have played eight games this season and in five of those games both sides have been involved in matches that has seen more than 2.5 goals.
Now, last time out LA had a 0-0 game, but that was needed, they had to stop the rot that had set in, they could not lose and they did not.
The Fire of course, have lost their last two games, both on the road and both going over 2.5 goals, thing is this, they did score in those games, in fact, only once this season have they failed to score.
I do expect Chicago to find the net at least once in this game and that will set up an open game, same applies to LA, I expect them to score at least once as well.
I cannot say hand on heart who will win, but I do see goals by both teams and not just one each either.
The stats point to this being an over 2.5 goal game and I agree with the stats.
Chicago Fire vs. Los Angeles Galaxy
StubHub Center ? Saturday, May 6 ? 10:30 pm ET
LA Galaxy (2-1-5 , 8 GF-13 GA) games in Carson have skewed Under, with 9 goals in 5 matches (1.80 gpg), including a scoreless 0-0 Draw against the winless Union in Week 9. A look at the L5 meetings in this inter-conference series shows the Galaxy 3-2-0 with La averaging more than 2 gpg the L4. Here on Saturday (MLS LIVE, CSN-Chicago, Spectrum SportsNet), Bastian Schweinsteiger and the Fire (1-1-4, 5 GF-9 GA) may have trouble scoring, but Giovani dos Santos, Gyasi Zardes, and the Galaxy may also, making the Under a perceived value pick in a potentially low-scoring or maybe no-scoring affair from suburban Lalaland. In a Trend dating back to last MLS Regular Season, Chicago has been anemic on the Road (0-1-3, 3 GF-10 GA), earning just 1 point away from the Windy City this year.
I'm playing the Kentucky Derby and giving you three horses to play in your exotics, and the winner for today's 143rd Run for the Roses.
Let's start with the three horses I think you should include in your exotic bets:
Always Dreaming (5) - A splendind Florida Derby has this stud ready for a big day. Trainer Todd Pletcher has himself a horse with loads of energy, and a jockey in John Velasquez, who can control a monster like this.
Hence (8) - With no Bob Baffert horse present here, you have to pay respect to trainer Steve Asmussen. Hence ran extra fast to win the Sunland Derby, and has been incredible during training for this run. At 15-1, this is a horse catching huge value.
Classic Empire (14) - Primed for a big effort here, and will close nicely from the outside. He was the 2-year-old champion, the Breeders? Cup Juvenile winner, and has been bred specifically for this course. It's a short price with the morning favorite, and there are probably better values with equally solid horses, but you have to include him.
Now, for your winner, I like Always Dreaming to pull away from the pack and win this one down the stretch. Fact is, he a legitimate shot at shooting from field midway through the race and closing it out for the victory. Always Dreaming is the co-second favorite at 5-1, and has won three in a row, including the Florida Derby, where he beat Gunnevera and State of Honor.
Pletcher has done wonders with this horse, and has stirred up plenty of excitement with the owners and followers - including Florida Panthers owner Vincent Viola.
Pletcher is 1 for 45 in the Derby, he has three in this one and I have to turn to the clich? "In Todd We Trust!"
Kentucky Derby
#2 Thunder Snow
By all accounts, it appears that the track will be sloppy, muddy or heavy today and that absolutely makes a difference. The Kentucky Derby is a grueling 1 1/4 miles for the best 3-year-old colts in the work. It is a test of pedigree, speed and endurance and the wet conditions makes things a lot more interesting.
This is as wide-open a Run for the Roses as we have seen in years, with the favorite likely to go off in the 4-1 to 5-1 range ? if not a higher price than that. Throw in the possibility of a wet track with variable amounts of rain that started on Thursday and is still going on now, and we?re looking at a pretty chaotic picture. As value bettors, we wouldn?t want it any other way. Thus, we?re looking for a couple of bombs with a legit chance of winning. These selections are based on a sloppy track:
#2, Thunder Snow (20-1)
An Irish-bred by an Australian sire out of an English-bred dam now headed for a start in Kentucky by way of Dubai ? this colt certainly adds some international flavor to the race. He is an extremely talented turf horse, having won a Group 1 in France last fall by five lengths. The switch to dirt at Meydan did not seem to faze him, as he wore down the highly regarded Epicharis to take the UAE Derby, despite drifting from the whip in the stretch. By virtue of winning that race, he is the only horse in this year?s Derby to have raced and won beyond nine furlongs. We?ve seen Meydan dirt form translate to American dirt success in recent years, but the Derby is a very tricky race to win, and his rider is inexperienced with American racing. The public likely overlook him because a European Horse hasn?t won in 100 years but neither did the Cubbies prior to last year, right? Again, he?s a Group I winner in France, and the recent UAE Derby winner is riding a three-race winning streak and is easily the best derby horse to ship from Dubai. He?ll be likely sitting mid-pack and if traffic doesn?t hinder his path, he should give us a great run for our money.
#1 Lookin at Lee (20-1)
Lookin at Lee rallied from far back when he finished third best in the Arkansas Derby and he has improved in each of his three races this season. He was all over the track in an eventful run through the stretch in the aforementioned Arkansas Derby and might have won had his rider been able to keep a straight path. He has been steadily improving while keeping company with the best in his division. Distance should not be an issue, but he absolutely needs a fast and contested pace to have a chance. Make no mistake that Lookin at Lee will be coming from the back so if you like front runners, he?s not your horse. We prefer horses to rally from off the pace and pick em off one at a time. If he?s steady and the pace is quick, he?s dangerous as hell. Use in the exotics.
Our 5 horse trifecta box for this race is going to be 1-2-14-15 and 19. Good luck. We?ll be it for 50 cents and the total cost, therefore, will be $30. We?ll also bet Thunder Snow to win and throw him in exactors for 1st and 2nd with the aforementioned other four horses. GOOD LUCK and enjoy the race.
2:10 PM MLB [917] Boston Red Sox -133 (Porcello/Tepesch)
4:15 PM MLB [920] Kansas City Royals -106 (Tomlin/Vargas)
3:00 PM NHL [59] TOTAL o5+100 (New York Rangers vrs Ottawa Senators)
1 unit bet pays 12....betdsi line...evening parlay later....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Porcello Getting Hit Hard In 2017: Twins +1.5
It?s breakfast and baseball in Minnesota on Saturday morning, as the Boston Red Sox come to town for a 3-game series. Even though the Twins have a better winning percentage coming into Friday?s game, and a higher run differential, they look to be moneyline underdogs at home in each of the three games. With Boston?s 4-6 away record, this could be a spot in which one of those ?dog chase? methods of betting a series could play well, as it is unlikely that the Twins get swept at home. This game has opened with an early line favoring the Red Sox at -148 at BetOnline, while the O/U total has opened at 9.5 with a -125 shade to the Under.
Minnesota will not be without its challenges though in avoiding a sweep. A poor run of starting pitching has their bullpen taxed. They will turn to just recently called up Nick Tepesch to start this game. He?s been stretched out as a starter in AAA to start the season so the move makes sense. Tepesch missed all of 2015 due to injury and was finally cut loose by the Rangers in 2016 ? bouncing around to the A?s, Royals, and Dodgers for the rest of the year. Tepesch has pitched well in AAA for the Twins, putting up a 2.00 ERA over 18 innings pitched and averaging six innings per start. He?s always been a ground ball specialist and counts on weak contact to get batters out. His hard-hit ball percentages are low, which offsets the amount of balls that are pulled off of him. Think of weak, rolled-over ground balls to the left side of the infield and you have the result that Tepesch is looking for against batters.
Rick Porcello starts this game for the Red Sox and he has been getting squared up quite often this year. Compiling a 1-4 record over six starts and 4.14 FIP, it is Porcello?s spike in hard-hit rate to 39.5% that should have Boston fans concerned. It is not a surprise then that he is posting his highest HR/FB% in his career at 15.2%. He is allowing a .286 batting average to right-handers on the year, which will allow quite a few teams to stack advantageous lineups against him.
As has often been the case this year, I will turn to the run line home underdog for wagering value in a matchup that is more of a toss-up in my mind than in the betting public?s. We can currently wager on the Twins +1.5 at home for just -125
Boston at Minnesota
Play: Boston -151
However, I will rarely lay in this price range ($1.50) when it is an exceptionally strong situation and i see solid line value. That is the case here with the Red Sox after they fell short a second straight day at Minnesota yesterday. Boston has not lost three straight games this entire season and I don't expect that to change here! The Red Sox will have Rick Porcello on the mound and he has a stellar 1.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season. The biggest problem for Porcello this season has been a lack of run support but that should change today. Nick Tepesch gets the start for the Twins and he has a 2.00 ERA in his 3 starts this season but those were in the minors. Also, he hasn't pitched in 2 weeks so his pitch count will be limited here plus I don't expect him to be sharp since he's been on such a layoff. Keep in mind, Tepesch is 9-18 with a 4.68 ERA in his MLB career and has only made 1 start at the MLB level since 2014. The Red Sox are 8-4 in day games this season while Minnesota, even with yesterday's win, is still only 2-5 in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season.
Toronto at Tampa Bay
Play: Toronto +107
The rebounding Toronto Blue Jays take on the Tampa Bay Rays in a Saturday afternoon event from the Trop with first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET in Tampa, Florida.
The Jays send Marco Estrada to the hill today and the Toronto right-hander is coming off an impressive outing against the New York Yankees. Estrada has turned in four straight strong turns, in fact. The Jays right-hander held the Bronx Bombers to just seven singles and a single run over seven innings, recording 5 K's without a walk on 12 swinging strikes.
Estrada has increased his velocity this season and his 12 mph differential between his fastball and change-up has moved him up the starting pitching rankings in the American league. Estrada has returned to the form that sports an elite 34.5% chase rate and 12.9% swinging strike percentage. The Jays starter has also increased his ground ball ratio by 8 percent this season over his career number.
Jake Odorizzi will make his second start since returning from the disabled list on Saturday and this variable alone makes the Tampa starter a play against. The trend, a second turn off the disabled list, for a starting pitcher that throws to contact, offers overwhelming evidence to fade.
Odorizzi doesn't miss enough bats and has an average slash line this season, mediocre at best, of .300/.350/.760. When Odorizzi is successful he is creating heavy fly balls but he has yet to outperform his FIP in each of the last two seasons and today's contest against the Rays and Estrada is nothing short of an uphill battle. Odorizzi is allowing a ridiculously high 40 percent hard contact rate this year after a similar ratio (38%) in 2016.
Cleveland @ Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +104
Kansas City is back home where it is 8-7, including Friday's 3-1 victory, compared to 2-11 on the road. The Royals have their best pitcher on the mound in Jason Vargas, who is 4-1 with a 1.42 ERA. The Royals have won four of his five starts, including Monday's 6-1 win over the White Sox when the left-hander gave up a run and five hits in six innings. Vargas has walked only five batters in 31 innings this year and struck out 29. He also has been unbeatable at home where is 3-0 with with a microscopic 0.44 ERA. Josh Tomlin has been getting shelled for the Indians even though his team bailed him out his last start with a 12-4 win. He did allow four runs and eight hits in five innings to raise his ERA to 8.87 for the season despite the win. Kansas City has won 19 of Vargas' last 26 home starts dating to last year.
Comp play for Saturday is the Rangers to make it 3 straight wins over the Senators.
After winning the first 2 games on home ice, Ottawa ran into a wall at Madison Square Garden, as Henrik Lundqvist has regained his confidence while Senators netminder Craig Anderson has allowed an alarming 13 goals over the last 3 games in this series!
With the Senators now pressing - just 2 goals in the last 2 games - and the Rangers looking relaxed now that they have knotted-up the series at 2-2, look for the Rangers to wrest home ice advantage away from the Senators this Saturday afternoon as they fly back home one win away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Go with the Rangers.
Down 2-0, the New York Rangers have shown resiliency, and this series is tied 2-2. Now they're going to take a 3-2 lead, and back the Ottawa Senators in a corner.
The Rangers dominated at Madison Square Garden, in Games 3 and 4, led by center Oscar Lindberg, who scored three of his team's eight goals in New York. Perspective: Lindberg had just eight goals in 65 games this season.
Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist made things look routine in the back-to-back wins, stopping 48 of 50 shots, and should bring his confidence to Canada's capital, while leading his team to a road victory.
Remember, in the opening round, the Rangers won Game 6 in Montreal to seize momentum and went home to secure the series. I'm looking for an identical final of 3-2, and the Rangers to take a 3-2 series lead.
4* NY RANGERS
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks +109
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies continue their series on Saturday. The Diamondbacks as underdogs have a lot of value in this one. I am very surprised to see the Diamondbacks as underdogs considering the pitching match up. On the mound for the Diamondbacks is Patrick Corbin who has pitched really well this season but just hasn't got much run support. He comes into this game with a 2.29 ERA and gave up zero runs in his last start.
On the other side of this match up is Tyler Anderson who has really struggled this season.He comes into this game with a 1-3 record and a 7.71 ERA on the season. I think he will struggle again against the Diamondbacks bats. Some trends to note. Diamondbacks are 10-2 in Corbins last 12 starts vs. Rockies. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Corbins last 5 road starts vs. Rockies.
In the Sights, Saturday NBA?
I don?t have to go into major detail here because the talking point has been out there throughout the week ? the betting markets are queuing up around the block these days to bet home teams in the First Half when they are down 0-2 in the NBA playoffs, and those doing so are on one of the greatest trend runs in memory, a perfect slate over the past two seasons. But that has also led markets to do what they do, which means altering the price structures. Hence you can now play the Warriors at -1.5 for the first 24 minutes at Salt Lake City tonight, and there are several good shops at -1. That puts #509 Golden State First Half (8:30 Eastern) into pocket.
There is a logical element of sports that tells us that teams down 0-2 will bring their best in the early stages of a Game #3 at home. The Jazz will have such an effort. But there is also the logic of a team with a 2-0 advantage letting up just a bit, and I don?t see that coming from the Warriors at all. This team has a high level of basketball consciousness, and knows full well how getting this series over in four games sets up the rest of their playoff run. Golden State has won the First Half of the opening two games by counts of 60-47 and 58-46, which means that 10 full points can be shaved off of those margins and a Warriors ticket will still win tonight. I do not see the changing of the venue leading to that degree of scoreboard adjustment.
After playing a low-scoring game to open the weekend series off on Friday, look for things to return to normal for the Yankees and Cubs. "Normal" as in expect some runs to be scored in this Saturday night interleague showdown.
Even with Friday's Under, the Yankees are still 6-1 Over the total in their last 7 games, and now 17-10 Over the total for the year.
As for the Cubs, they are still 7-2 Over their last 9 games, and now 18-10 Over the total for the season.
Jordan Montgomery has made 4 starts this season, and 3 of the 4 have played Over the total, while Brett Anderson has seen each of his last 3 starts land Over the total.
After a day of goose eggs on Friday, expect crooked numbers up on the scoreboard on Saturday night.
Yankees-Cubs Over the total.
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -108
I like the value here with the Phillies at basically a pick'em at home against rival Washington. I've liked what I have seen from this young Philadelphia team who has a +5 run differential, despite their 12-16 overall record. They also own a winning record at home at 7-5. The biggest thing here is the Phillies have what I feel is a significant edge on the mound, which they need against this high-powered Nationals team, who may or may not have Bryce Harper in the lineup.
Phillies are going to send out Vincent Velasquez, who is trending in the right direction with a 3.64 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in his last 3 starts. While he allowed 4 run in an earlier start against the Nationals he had 10 strikeouts in 4 innings. I like his chances of out performing Washington's A.J. Cole, who is being forced into the rotation to fill in for Joe Ross. Cole wasn't good in 8 starts last year (5.17 ERA) and has a 6.63 ERA in 19 innings with Triple-A Syracuse this season.
CINCINNATI -1? +168 over San Francisco
Amir Garrett is a big lefty that?s still new to pitching (3rd season on the mound). His control last year was not great and thus, the move to AAA in the 2nd half proved to be a challenge, as his big fastball wasn't generating enough strikeouts. The synopsis after last year was that he was just a few adjustments away from reaching the big leagues and here we are. Garrett has made five starts and thrown 30 innings. Over that span, he has four pure quality starts with a BB/K split of 10/26. Garrett has a heavy fastball that works away from the batter. His slider is another tool that is quickly developing into a plus offering, and his changeup has seen marked improvement too. Garrett quickly moved up the minor league ladder and he?s quickly improving in every area. He has an elite groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 51%/16%/34%. He?s intelligent on the mound and has a wealth of pure talent. It?s almost scary to think that he?s been pitching for just three years after starting his sports career playing basketball for St. John's University before switching to baseball. For all of you in keeper fantasy leagues, Garrett is a major target you should be gunning for. For this purpose, however, he?s facing a weak hitting team with a horrible rookie starting.
Ty Blach comes in with a 2.55 ERA after two starts and seven relief appearances covering 18 innings, but it?s a pure luck-driven number that is not sustainable. The 6-2, 200-pound Blach surprised many when he outdueled Clayton Kershaw to lock up a post-season berth for the Giants last year. Despite that, he lost out to Matt Cain for a spot in the rotation as the teams? #5 starter. Frankly, that?s all one needs to know because losing out to Cain is not easy. In 18 innings, Blach has walked six batters but only struck out five. He has a 3% swing and miss rate so he?s at the mercy of batted balls in play. His xERA is 7.22, which is MLB?s worst mark among pitchers with 15 or more innings. Blach is a career minor leaguer with 600 innings pitched in the minors, where he struck out just 414 and posted an oppBA of .278. These starters that have been riding buses for years have some appeal. They come in rather relaxed with nothing to lose. They have seen everything and experienced everything and just keep plodding along. However, Blach?s ERA is a complete mirage that is going to get blown up. Aside from that, the Giants have very little going for them while the Reds are loaded with talent that looks completely legit in the early going.e?s getting murdered by his brutal skills and we?re going to fade him each and every time he starts until he starts no more.
OAKLAND -1? +150 over Detroit
We?re not going to go into a lot of detail regarding Jesse Hahn because this wager is not about him. It is worth noting that Hahn is having a decent year thus far and has had great success versus the Tigers in the past with an oppBA of just .197 against current Tigers. However, our focus here is fading Jordan Zimmermann, a pitcher with a dead arm that we?ve been fading for quite some time now.
Zimmermann has one quality start in five tries. He had the hope of a rebound in 2017 after a strong spring but so far, that has been far from the case (6.18 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) and his skills give zero reasons for optimism. Zimmerman has a lousy BB/K split of 9/16 in 28 frames. His groundball rate is the lowest in the majors (24%) among pitchers with four or more starts and he?s accomplished this without bad luck. Zimmermann?s hit and strand rate are right around league average so he?s not getting murdered there. He?s getting murdered by his brutal skills and we?re going to fade him each and every time he starts until he starts no more.
Arizona -1? +195 over COLORADO
We?re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado?s home games this season and we?ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it?s the Rocks or the opposition and we?ll be playing it regardless of who?s pitching. We?re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12? range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park
Mike Leake ? 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. The drip continues as Leake boasts a ridiculous 1.35 ERA. I can?t argue against a sub 3.50 SIERA and xFIP as well, even if he has a 84.9% LOB rate to his name. Thing is, Leake has always been sporadic and gone on respectable stretches before entering a void of despair, which means I?m still playing this matchup-by-matchup regardless of the fact that he should clearly be owned everywhere. Good news is that it?s the Braves + Marlins next and if he?s cruising after that, I?d be marketing him around like Rod Tidwell.
Jordan Montgomery ? 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. Ehhhh the line looks a bit worse than how he pitched as he held the David Cone mentality of pitching and often pitched around batters he didn?t want to face to avoid damage in certain innings. I still like Monty a lot for a good stream (think more like 5 Ks per start, though) and would even consider him for a roster spot if he didn?t have the Cubs next. Womp womp.
-- The Diamondbacks are 10-0 OU (3.45 ppg) when Patrick Corbin starts on the road when they won in his last start in which he delivered a quality start since Jul 02, 2013.
The Royals (-9.6 units), Giants (-9.1) and Blue Jays (-12.6) have been the worst bets of the season so far. But the good news is that one of them should soon bounce back and be undervalued in price for a few weeks. It's Toronto's starting rotation that stands out. They have the ability to carry them while waiting for the bats to wake up.
Kansas City averages an MLB-low 2.9 runs a game and get a visit from Cleveland this weekend. The Royals have washed off the strench of losing nine straight and have won two of their last four. The Royals are second-best at 16-9-2 to the Under this season. More on this series below.
The best Under team in baseball is surprisingly the Red Sox at 18-9-1. Boston led MLB in runs scored last season, but are averaging just 3.9 runs a game this season. The good new is they allow only 3.8. They go to Minnesota to play the Twins who won't go away in the AL Central and sit only a half-game behind first-place.
WARRIORS AT JAZZ
PLAY: JAZZ 1H +1.5
Strategy remains the same with these partial game plays, and this will be the final one for this round of the NBA playoffs. The Jazz figure to come out with great intensity in their initial home game vs. Golden State. I don?t have confidence Utah can get past the Warriors over the full 48 minutes, but I like their chances of seeing them play their best ball in the first 12/24 minutes. The angle continues to pay off handsomely, so once more it?s a 1Q/1H split on the Jazz.
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners - Over 8.5
The Mariners are down to their 7th starting option with Felix Hernandez and Drew Smyly on the DL. On Saturday, Chase DeJong gets the call again and hopes to avoid another disaster on the mound.
Chase DeJong made his first MLB start at Cleveland last Friday, and he was literally chased from the field to the tune of 6 earned runs over just 2.2 innings pitched. He gave up hits to half of the batters he faced (18), struck out one, and walked two. The notes on DeJong peg him as a classic AAAA player, with fringe secondary pitches that won?t work multiple times through a MLB batting order. He has had some success in long relief this year, but DeJong is can?t be trusted to not give up at least some runs on Saturday night. This will leave some innings to the Seattle bullpen, who I have been fading recently as a run giving sieve.
Facing DeJong will be Martin Perez of the Rangers, who has had serious issues with command to start the season. With a few exceptions, the Seattle lineup has patience and will draw walks when they are there for the taking. Perez?s WHIP of 1.83 and 20/19 K/BB rate is an indication that will be the case, and with Seattle currently hot on the offensive side of the ball a shutout is not likely. This should be a high scoring game on both sides, making the Over of 8.5 tremendous value on Saturday night.
Texas vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Texas won the AL West in 2016 with a 95-67 record but it's been a slow start in 2017 for the Rangers. Rougned Odor's two-run HR in the 13th inning last night provided Texas with a 3-1 win, its second straight coming off a four-game losing streak. Texas is now 13-17 on the season and plays the second contest of this three-game series tonight in Seattle. The Mariners opened the season 2-8 and currently have the same record as the Rangers, at 13-17.
Tonight's pitching matchup features Martin Perez (1-4, 4.26 ERA) against Chase De Jong (0-2, 11.05 ERA). Perez comes in off three staright losing starts, allowing 11 ERs on 21 hits and eight walks in 15.1 innings during that stretch (6.45 ERA). Perez's lone victory in 2017 came back on April 9 vs Oakland. He did not factor in the decision against the Mariners on April 14, when he gave up one run and six hits in five innings. He is 5-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 career appearances (11 starts / team is 7-4) against Seattle in his career.
De Jong is temporarily taking Felix Hernandez's spot in the rotation. Seattle's ace is on the DL and De Jong makes his second major-league start in this one. It has to go better than his first, when he allowed six runs on nine hits in just 2.2 innings on Sunday in a 12-4 loss at Cleveland. De Jong was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in March in a deal for infielder Drew Jackson and right-hander Aneurys Zabala.
De Jong's stay in the rotation may be a little more than temporary. James Paxton was just placed on the DL Friday, joining ace Felix Hernandez and prized free agent Drew Smyly. Seattle scored just one run last night but recorded 11 hits. That follows a combined 19 hits in back-to-back victories. Nelson Cruz is on a 14-game hitting streak, in which he has five HRs and 19 RBI. Perez has a history of pitching well at home but really struggling on the road. My bet is the Mariners will out-hit and out-score the Rangers in this one.
San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds - Under F5
The Under was slammed once it opened on this matchup in Cincinnati. Even with the line move our handicappers thinks it is still ok to go with the flow.
San Francisco has had little to cheer about this season with their awful start, but one bright note has been the results of Ty Blach as he fills in the rotation. Blach should be hitting his physical prime right now, and has improved in each year through the minor leagues. Including his bullpen work early in the season, Blach has put up a 2.55 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and a .161 batting average against. That BAA obviously won?t continue, but his .239 BAA in AAA last year over 162.2 innings is very real. Both of his starts have went under the listed total this season.
Lefty Amir Garrett takes the mound for the Reds, and he has been great at home this season. The rookie has been bit by the long ball, which is not like him considering he has not run a HR/FB% over 9.2% in his last 4 seasons of minor league ball. He?s allowing just a .218 batting average against over 30 innings pitched, which is excellent.
The real story here is that San Francisco and Cincinnati both struggle mightily against left handed pitchers. San Francisco only averages 3.3 runs and a .240 batting average, and the Reds 3.3 runs and a .187 batting average. One if not both of these starters figures to have an excellent game here. The first five inning line has not come out yet, but I will be backing these pitchers and taking the Under F5
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8?
The real value in this game lies with the total. The Phillies average 5.5 runs per game at home while the Nationals average 7.1 on the road. The Phillies have played over the total in 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8. Neither team is sending forward their best pitchers here either which adds more value to the over.
Velasquez has a home ERA of 7.05 on the season in 3 starts and has struggled against the Nationals with a 6.30 ERA. Every single game Velasquez has started this year the total has gone over!
St. Louis at Atlanta
Play: Over 8.5
The St. Louis Cardinals are currently near the very bottom in baseball in runs scored. This is coming off of a season where they were third in the NL in runs and had several guys break out. The Cards have shown some signs of breaking out of their terrible slump with some good offensive performances against Toronto and Cincinnati last week. The Braves offense has taken a step forward in 2017, and I really like the mix of youngsters and veterans on the team. Matt Kemp has been a boon to the lineup since coming over from San Diego last season. If some of the young guys start figuring it out, this Atlanta lineup could do some serious damage. Michael Wacha and Julio Teheran are scheduled to get the ball on Saturday afternoon, and I think they'll both have their hands full. Play the OVER
Penguins vs. Capitals
Play: Over 5
So far three of four in this series have gone below the posted number, but we?re expecting a more wide-open affair in Game 5. The Pens have a 3-1 lead and clearly the the Capitals will be pushing the pace from start to finish. Washington outshot the Pens 38-18 in Game 4 and were still saddled with a 3-2 loss. But the Capitals? break-neck speed tonight will also create opportunities for the opportunistic Pens on the other end as well. In our professional opinion, the overall ?situation? definitely lends itself to a higher-scoring affair. And note, the numbers/trends also point to a ?shoot-out,? as Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of 11 this year when playing with two days rest, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in seven of 11 in the exact same position. Looks like we may have a ?barn-burner? on our hands in Game 5, consider the OVER.
Marlins at Mets
Play: Over 9
The Mets and Miami opened their 3 game series in New York with a high scoring 8-7 Mets victory and we see a bunch of runs scoring again tonight. Tonight's starters are for Miami RH Odrisamer Despaigne (2016: 0-2, 5.93 ERA) and he faces the Mets RH Robert Gsellman (1-2, 6.75 ERA). Despaigne was recalled from Triple-A New Orleans as the Marlins put Chen on the DL with arm fatigue. Despaigne came over to Miami late in September but did pitch against these Mets on September 27th. In that game he pitched 1 1/3 inning of relief giving up 3 runs. As for Gsellman he has allowed 11 runs in 9 2/3 innings in the two games against the Marlins this year. Another long night for both pitching staffs in New York. Backing our selection is the fact that the Over is 11-1 in the Mets last 12 vs. a team with a losing record and the fact that the Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between the clubs.
New York Red Bulls vs. Philadelphia Union
PPL Park ? Saturday, May 6 ? 7 pm ET
It will be Seis de Mayo on Saturday and the Philadelphia Union (0-4-4, 8 GF-14 GA) will still be winless. At this point, with Bradley Wright-Phillips (4 goals; +110 Anytime Goalscorer, Bet365) and the Red Bulls (5-1-3, 11 GF-10 GA) in the City of Brotherly Love, even earning a point with a Draw may seem like progress for the host. The L5 meetings in this series reveals the Both Teams To Score ?Yes? Prop going 4-1, the Red Bulls and unbeaten 4-1-0 (14 GF-6 GA) with the Over 4-1 L5. Although Philadelphia is due to win one, this won?t be the spot and backing Jay Simpson and 2nd-place New York at the crooked-looking fair price seems logical in this Week 10 affair.
Fire vs. Galaxy
Play: Over 2?
This match up between LA Galaxy and Chicago Fire looks like it will have a good splattering of goals in it.
Both sides have played eight games this season and in five of those games both sides have been involved in matches that has seen more than 2.5 goals.
Now, last time out LA had a 0-0 game, but that was needed, they had to stop the rot that had set in, they could not lose and they did not.
The Fire of course, have lost their last two games, both on the road and both going over 2.5 goals, thing is this, they did score in those games, in fact, only once this season have they failed to score.
I do expect Chicago to find the net at least once in this game and that will set up an open game, same applies to LA, I expect them to score at least once as well.
I cannot say hand on heart who will win, but I do see goals by both teams and not just one each either.
The stats point to this being an over 2.5 goal game and I agree with the stats.
Chicago Fire vs. Los Angeles Galaxy
StubHub Center ? Saturday, May 6 ? 10:30 pm ET
LA Galaxy (2-1-5 , 8 GF-13 GA) games in Carson have skewed Under, with 9 goals in 5 matches (1.80 gpg), including a scoreless 0-0 Draw against the winless Union in Week 9. A look at the L5 meetings in this inter-conference series shows the Galaxy 3-2-0 with La averaging more than 2 gpg the L4. Here on Saturday (MLS LIVE, CSN-Chicago, Spectrum SportsNet), Bastian Schweinsteiger and the Fire (1-1-4, 5 GF-9 GA) may have trouble scoring, but Giovani dos Santos, Gyasi Zardes, and the Galaxy may also, making the Under a perceived value pick in a potentially low-scoring or maybe no-scoring affair from suburban Lalaland. In a Trend dating back to last MLS Regular Season, Chicago has been anemic on the Road (0-1-3, 3 GF-10 GA), earning just 1 point away from the Windy City this year.
I'm playing the Kentucky Derby and giving you three horses to play in your exotics, and the winner for today's 143rd Run for the Roses.
Let's start with the three horses I think you should include in your exotic bets:
Always Dreaming (5) - A splendind Florida Derby has this stud ready for a big day. Trainer Todd Pletcher has himself a horse with loads of energy, and a jockey in John Velasquez, who can control a monster like this.
Hence (8) - With no Bob Baffert horse present here, you have to pay respect to trainer Steve Asmussen. Hence ran extra fast to win the Sunland Derby, and has been incredible during training for this run. At 15-1, this is a horse catching huge value.
Classic Empire (14) - Primed for a big effort here, and will close nicely from the outside. He was the 2-year-old champion, the Breeders? Cup Juvenile winner, and has been bred specifically for this course. It's a short price with the morning favorite, and there are probably better values with equally solid horses, but you have to include him.
Now, for your winner, I like Always Dreaming to pull away from the pack and win this one down the stretch. Fact is, he a legitimate shot at shooting from field midway through the race and closing it out for the victory. Always Dreaming is the co-second favorite at 5-1, and has won three in a row, including the Florida Derby, where he beat Gunnevera and State of Honor.
Pletcher has done wonders with this horse, and has stirred up plenty of excitement with the owners and followers - including Florida Panthers owner Vincent Viola.
Pletcher is 1 for 45 in the Derby, he has three in this one and I have to turn to the clich? "In Todd We Trust!"
Kentucky Derby
#2 Thunder Snow
By all accounts, it appears that the track will be sloppy, muddy or heavy today and that absolutely makes a difference. The Kentucky Derby is a grueling 1 1/4 miles for the best 3-year-old colts in the work. It is a test of pedigree, speed and endurance and the wet conditions makes things a lot more interesting.
This is as wide-open a Run for the Roses as we have seen in years, with the favorite likely to go off in the 4-1 to 5-1 range ? if not a higher price than that. Throw in the possibility of a wet track with variable amounts of rain that started on Thursday and is still going on now, and we?re looking at a pretty chaotic picture. As value bettors, we wouldn?t want it any other way. Thus, we?re looking for a couple of bombs with a legit chance of winning. These selections are based on a sloppy track:
#2, Thunder Snow (20-1)
An Irish-bred by an Australian sire out of an English-bred dam now headed for a start in Kentucky by way of Dubai ? this colt certainly adds some international flavor to the race. He is an extremely talented turf horse, having won a Group 1 in France last fall by five lengths. The switch to dirt at Meydan did not seem to faze him, as he wore down the highly regarded Epicharis to take the UAE Derby, despite drifting from the whip in the stretch. By virtue of winning that race, he is the only horse in this year?s Derby to have raced and won beyond nine furlongs. We?ve seen Meydan dirt form translate to American dirt success in recent years, but the Derby is a very tricky race to win, and his rider is inexperienced with American racing. The public likely overlook him because a European Horse hasn?t won in 100 years but neither did the Cubbies prior to last year, right? Again, he?s a Group I winner in France, and the recent UAE Derby winner is riding a three-race winning streak and is easily the best derby horse to ship from Dubai. He?ll be likely sitting mid-pack and if traffic doesn?t hinder his path, he should give us a great run for our money.
#1 Lookin at Lee (20-1)
Lookin at Lee rallied from far back when he finished third best in the Arkansas Derby and he has improved in each of his three races this season. He was all over the track in an eventful run through the stretch in the aforementioned Arkansas Derby and might have won had his rider been able to keep a straight path. He has been steadily improving while keeping company with the best in his division. Distance should not be an issue, but he absolutely needs a fast and contested pace to have a chance. Make no mistake that Lookin at Lee will be coming from the back so if you like front runners, he?s not your horse. We prefer horses to rally from off the pace and pick em off one at a time. If he?s steady and the pace is quick, he?s dangerous as hell. Use in the exotics.
Our 5 horse trifecta box for this race is going to be 1-2-14-15 and 19. Good luck. We?ll be it for 50 cents and the total cost, therefore, will be $30. We?ll also bet Thunder Snow to win and throw him in exactors for 1st and 2nd with the aforementioned other four horses. GOOD LUCK and enjoy the race.
