Saturday Plays - 15-6 ATS

[3rd & 30]

I've been doing pretty well this year, so I thought I would make my plays public.

Duke gets their 1st real defensive test this week, and my guess is a slightly over-rated Duke team (sound weird to say that) will get beat up pretty badly here. Duke has faced James Madison, Northwestern, Navy, and UVA this season (not exactly a roster chock full of defensive juggernauts), and even vs that line up is only averaging 4.8 yppl (the 30 ppg and 378 ypg are slightly mis-leading). GTs defense is very good, allowing only 4.1 yppl and 4.6 ypa, so I don?t see Duke doing much of anything on offense (the only real team they?ve faced this season, Navy, had a defense allowing 8.1 ypa so you really have to discount Duke?s performance in that game). Even vs a terrible UVA team last week Duke was outgained by UVA (304-258), but was the benefactor of 6 UVA turnovers. My math calls for 4.2 yppl (308 yards) and a scoring range of 12-18. Our models all have 10-15 pts for Duke.


GT continues to excel on offense, and while the injury to Nesbit would have scared me some, watching the performance Jaybo Shaw gave off the bench last week vs a Miss St defense twice as good as Duke (Shaw played nearly the entire game and GT racked up 431 yards offense), leads me to believe there will be little to no drop off this week. Plus they get a Duke def allowing 4.5 ypr and 205 ypg on the ground, and Navy ran all over them, so PJs version should do even better. My math calls for 6.4 ypr and 440 yards total offense, good for 35-37 pts by my math. Models have 32-41 for GT, so all signs point to a blow out in Atlanta. Even my worse case analysis has a 17 pt GT victory. There really isn?t anything not to like here. GT 37 Duke 14. GT is a #1/2 recommended play at -13.5.

 

[3rd & 30]

03:30PM


357


Arizona State Sun Devils


Saturday 10/04/2008


358


California Golden Bears -#2


9.0







Ariz St has been horrible rushing the football this year (-0.7 ypr) and gets a Cal defense allowing 2.5 ypr (to teams that average 3.9 ypr), so I don?t see any scenario where ASU makes anything happen on the ground (my projections call for 1.8 ypr & 61 yards). They?ve had some success passing this season (averaging 8.9 ypa), but get a Cal defense very good vs the pass (allowing only 6.2 ypa) and are actually a statistical draw in this game (both sides are +0.8 ypa). On the road with no ground game, I have a hard time believing ASU will be very successful, and my projections call for only 318 yards offense (4.7 yppl) and 18 pts (which seems very generous for only 300 yards offense). In the two games this year where ASU has thrown for over 300 yards they are averaging 36 ppg, compared to the other 2 games with less than 300 yards where they are averaging 15 ppg. Considering my math calls for them to barely get 300 yards total offense, I think the 18 is extremely considerate. My models have a pretty wide total projection for ASU (11-24 pts), but considering the polarity of their 4 games this year that isn?t shocking.

Cal has been cruising on offense this year averaging 43 ppg, 445 ypg, and 6.6 yppl, and like the usual Tedford teams, get it done on the ground where they averaging 205 ypr and 6.4 ypr. I don?t see a decent, but not great ASU defense (allowing 20 ppg and 337 ypg) slowing Cal down, particularly when Cal has a 1.1 ypr advantage rushing the football. My projections call for 5.9 yppl (5.6 ypr) and 394-430 yards offense good for 35-38 points. My models are all in that same neighborhood at 34-42 points. Simply too much offense for Cal in this one and absent a collapse by the Cal pass D I don?t see this one being close. Cal 37 ASU 17 ? Cal is a #2 recommended play at -9

 

[3rd & 30]

12:00PM


315


Boston College Eagles-#3


8

Saturday 10/04/2008


316


NC State Wolfpack








No need to repeat last week?s assessment on NCSU, as it is the same this week. They are just really bad on offense, and won?t get any relief vs a BC defense as good if not better than USF?s last week (BC allowing only 4.1 yppl), and again NCSU is at a huge statistical disadvantage when trying to run the football (-1.6 ypr), and not much better vs a BC pass def only allowing 5.1 ypa. All in all my math calls for 230 yards offense (3.7 yppl) and 3-7 pts (BC is only allowing 6.5 ppg this season). My models are all much more conservative with NCSU in the 15-18 range, but I don?t think those adequately enough adjust for the ECU anomaly (we?ve discussed prior the terrible situation ECU was in and it showed)?until NCSU proves they capable of doing anything on offense I have no problem continuing to fade them.

BC has had its own struggles on offense this year (averaging only 4.9 yppl and 331 ypg, despite their 28 ppg), but some of that was due to the complete turnover they had on offense from last season and its impact early in the season. They seemed to have turned a corner in week 3, and albeit vs some suspect competition have put up some good numbers the last 2 weeks. Playing a bad NCSU defense that is allowing 30 pgg & 401 ypg (at 5.9 yppl) shouldn?t hurt matters either. Plus the play of their defense vs a completely over-matched NCSU offense should set the BC offense up in some favorable field positions, which should yield a higher point / yardage ratio. All in all my math calls for 381 yards (5.4 yppl) and 28-30 points, which is pretty indicative of what NCSU has allowed this year and of how BC has performed of late. All my models have BC with 28-30 and very rarely are all our models right on top of each other and my math like this.

The larger than I?d like variance from my projected scoring and statistics compared to the majority of our models scares me a little, but even using the more conservative projections BC still covers (although not with the coverage percentage I?d like to see), still I think that is on the high side, and based on NCSU?s performance this year and BCs defense, I don?t mind backing the road team. BC 29 NCSU 13 - BC is a #2/3 recommended play at -8

 

[rubiconed]

Thanks for posting, and the information !!!
GL Today !!! :toast:

 

[3rd & 30]

12:00PM


321


Iowa Hawkeyes -#3


Saturday 10/04/2008


322


Michigan State Spartans


7.0







This one has me totally confused, as from a mathematical / statistical analysis Iowa is the better team, and it is not even close. Their defense is better than MSUs (4.3 yppl to 5.5 yppl and 282 ypg to 353 ypg), Iowa?s offense is better than MSU?s offense (6.1 yppl to 5.5 yppl), Iowa has the match up edge on offense and defense in every statistical category (ypr, ypa, and yppl), and Iowa should outgain Mich St in yppl and total yardage (397/6.2 ? 360-4.9). Further confusing the matter is a projected scoring range per side that varies widely but consistently with a projected scoring range (based on my math and our models) of 18-30 pts for Iowa and 18-28 pts for Mich St..

I think we are getting the line value from MSUs 4 consecutive wins and Iowa?s back to back losses, not that TOs are the only reason for this (as they are not), but in MSUs last 4 wins they have been the benefactor of an 8-3 (takeaway ? giveaway) TO margin whereas Iowa in their 2 losses has been negative (3-6). In both the Iowa losses they outgained their opponent, so it?s not quite as bad as it otherwise might seems. The large scoring variances will cool my enthusiasm some, but with a TD and all the math firmly in support of the road team I can?t resist making it a recommended play. At +7 this is probably a pretty good place to pick up a small ML play as they should be going off at +210 - +250, and I think they have at least a 33% chance to win which I basically what +200 indicates Iowa 23 Mich St 24 ? Iowa is a #3 recommended play at +7.

 

[3rd & 30]

07:00PM


379


Ball State Cardinals-#3


7.5

Saturday 10/04/2008


380


Toledo Rockets


Ball State?s offense has been silly this year (averaging 41 ppg and 470 ypg), and don?t see them struggling any this week vs a Toledo defense that is allowing 37 ppg (to teams that would only average 27 ppg). Ball State should air it out again this week as they have a 2.4 ypa statistical advantage vs a Toledo defense that is -1.2 ypa this season (allowing 7.9 ypa). Interestingly enough, most teams aren?t exploiting this Toledo pass def as their opponents are only averaging 24 pass atts/ game (compared to 41 rushing atts where they are much better). My math calls for 462 yards (6.8 yppl and 9.9 ypa) for a scoring range of 47-51 points. My models have a similar scoring range of 40-50 pts for Ball State (with one low anomaly of 35 pts).

Toledo has been little bit like Jekyll & Hyde this year, and it really revolves around their ability to run the football. In two games this year with over 200 yards rushing (vs E. Mich and Fresno) they have averaged 48 ppg. In the other 2 games (with less than 100 yards rushing) they have averaged 16 ppg. With that great stat, I wish I could tell you Ball State?s defense is great vs the run and Toledo won?t rush for more than 80 yards. Problem is Ball St is just average vs the rush (+0.1 ypr), but has only faced very good rushing offense (averaging 5.0 ypr), so it is a little hard to know what to get from Ball State. My math calls for 5.3 ypr (which I think is a bit on the high side considering Toledo is only averaging 5.1 ypr), but still in the ballpark. That should be good for 170-202 yards rushing (my projections have 184), they do have a -0.5 ypa disadvantage throwing the football, and considering what Ball State looks to do offensively that could put Toledo in a difficult spot of having to abandon what they do best and play catch up. My models have a scoring range of 27-29 points, which is exactly what I show (26-28) and consistent with the 388 yards I project for them, with that tight of alignment on Toledo and even the one low projection of 35 for Ball State you still have a game we stand a good chance to squeak out of, most likely Ball State is in the 40s. Ball State 43 Toldeo 28 ? Ball State is a #3 recommended play at -7.5

 

[3rd & 30]

10:15PM


373


Washington State Cougars- #4


Saturday 10/04/2008


374


UCLA Bruins


17

In a bizarre math up of two horrible offenses (4.4 yppl and 4.5 yppl) vs two equally bad defenses (both allowing over 35 ppg and 400 ypg), I can?t see how UCLA should be favored by 17 over anyone until they starting averaging more than 17 ppg and 270 yards offense (I guess last weeks 31 pt outburst vs Fresno has people thinking UCLA has turned the corner, but even in that game they only had 384 yards offense). To be sure, Washington State is bad on offense, but they get a UCLA defense that is also very bad. UCLA has a slight edge rushing the football (0.9 ypr) and Washington State has no edge on offense. Still my projections call for 4.7 yppl (324 yards) for Wash St and only 5.2 yppl (335 yards) for UCLA, so laying 17 seems out of the question here. The scoring ranges are all over the board (24-40 for UCLA), which seems even crazier considering their projected offense (although there is a high projection of 400 yards offense for UCLA). The WSU projections are a little tighter with 23-29 pts, but again on 325-350 yards offense that is very high. Our models are more in line with what I expect from WSU (19-24 pts). For UCLA they are split about 50-50 with either 34 pts or 25 pts. In either case, laying 17 we cover, and there is probably an outside chance WSU pulls the upset. I usually would pass on a game with this many variables, but considering the fundamentals and the huge line there is just too much value to pass up here. Washington State 18 UCLA 28 ? Washington State is a #4 recommended play at -17

04:00PM


367


Navy Midshipmen - #4


Saturday 10/04/2008


368


Air Force Falcons


4.5







What a perfect matchup for Navy?s defense. The one thing Navy hasn?t been able to do all year (as we?ve pointed out numerous times) is defend the pass, and they get an Air Force team that passes as frequently as Navy (hardly at all, AF is averaging 9 pass atts/game). Navy?s defense has been pretty good defending the run, allowing 3.3 ypr, albeit to pretty mediocre rushing teams (that average 3.4 ypr). AF actually hasn?t been that great running the football, averaging only 4.5 ypr (on 63 atts/game) to pretty bad rush Ds that otherwise allow 4.5 ypr. This looks like a great spot to back a good Navy team that shouldn?t be handicapped by the only real identifiable weakness they have (Navy pass D). My projections call for AF to average 4.5 ypr and 331 yards total offense.

Navy continues to excel on the ground averaging 6.1 ypr and get an AF defense slightly worse than average defending the run (allowing 3.8 ypr at -0.1 ypr). My projections call for 5.6 ypr and 402 yards total offense for Navy (Navy also has a 2.8 ypa advantage over the AF defense but I doubt they?ll throw it much in this game particularly with Enahada out again). All my math and models are pretty consistent with 27-30 points for both teams. There is one high projection for AF at 34 points, and that combined with Enahada?s injury will temper my enthusiasm some, but in a game where Navy has all the statistical advantages, should perform better on the ground, should outgain the home team, and we get 4.5 points I can?t pass it up. Navy 28 AF 27 ? Navy is a #4 recommended play at +4.5.

02:30PM


343


Stanford Cardinal - #4


Saturday 10/04/2008


344


Notre Dame Fighting Irish


6.5







I don?t see where ND should be favored here, as the only game this season where they?ve accumulated more than 350 yards offense was last week vs Purdue (476 yards at 6.3 yppl) but that was against a defense that allows 5.9 yppl and 439 ypg on the season. ND has been just average on offense (5.1 yppl and 334 ypg) and while Stanford?s defense isn?t world beaters (5.1 yppl and 387 ypg this season), ND doesn?t really have any measurable advantages (they have a -0.9 ypr disadvantage on the ground and a +0.9 ypa in the air). My math projections call for 355 yards offense (including only 2.9 ypr) for the Irish, which is pretty consistent with their performance this year and what Stanford?s D has allowed.

Stanford has been pretty good this season running the football (4.7 ypr at +0.6 ypr) and gets a poor Irish rush D allowing 4.6 ypr (-0.6 ypr), and my projections call for a pretty big day on the ground for Stanford (5.3 yppl and 175 yards rushing). Stanford has struggled some in the passing dept, but have improved every game, and had an excellent performance last week (9.3 ypa). I doubt they?ll repeat that performance vs a good ND pass D (+0.6 ypa and 6.0 ypa), but I do think Stanford is better this week than their entire seasons average indicated. All that said, even when I use the entire seasons statistics, I still come up with a projected offense of 349 yards total offense.

My scoring projections and models have 22-28 points for the Irish and 18-26 for Stanford. That creates a worse case analysis of 19-26, but to me all signs point to a pretty evenly matched game. Getting a TD is pretty nice, particularly when you should have success controlling both lines of scrimmage and both run games. Stanford 23 Notre Dame 24 ? Stanford is a #4 recommended play at +6.5