Saturday Plays

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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damn, can the season really be over already? i need to go 4-2 to get over .500 for the year. that's really not the goal i wanted to be shooting for today.

rutgers (+10) 1 unit. this would be for more, but this line scares me. it looks way too easy. i must be missing something. almost everybody here is on WV, including some good 'cappers. but i have to stick to my guns. i didn't imagine WV losing at home to south florida last week, did i? that really happened, right? and now they are laying 10 to rutgers? the scarlet knights have a very quick defense that matches up well with WV. the 'neers have to be reeling. 4 weeks ago, they thought they were heading for a BCS bowl game. maybe a shot at the NC. then they lost to louisville. and then they lost AT HOME TO SOUTH FLORIDA last week. what are they playing for today? yeah, i know wv's biggest weakness on defense is their secondary, and rutgers won't be able to exploit that. with rice and leonard having big days, they won't need to. rutgers' only loss this season was to a cincinnati team with an excellent defense. they're not going up against an excellent defense today.

ucla (+12) 2 units. been waiting for this game for a few weeks now, and last weeks pummeling of nd by usc helps set it up perfectly. usc is coming off two big games, against cal and nd. everybody already has them in the NC. but they still have to play their biggest rival. ucla's defense will keep them in this game.

usc/ucla under (48) 1 unit. ucla's excellent defense and subpar offense will combine to keep this game under the total.

wake forest (+1.5) 2 units. the 'dog in wake forest games is 10-0 ATS this year.

arkansas (+3) 2 units. the gators are 0-5 ATS away from home this year and 2-7-1 as a fav. tim tebow has made a lot of big plays for the gators this year, but arkansas has the better running qb with mcfadden. :) florida's defensive backfield is not as good as lsu's. arkansas will be able to get just enough done through the air to balance out that running attack.

florida/arkansas under (44.5) 1 unit. i just don't see this game going over 40.
 

AR182

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Nov 9, 2000
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thanks, al. hate going against you with that rutgers play. i have a bad feeling on that one, so you are probably safe. gotta stick with my gut though.


imo, the w. virginia line is begging for rutgers action...but since it's your money you have to go with what you think is the right play....

good luck today.
 

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Upstate NY
imo, the w. virginia line is begging for rutgers action...but since it's your money you have to go with what you think is the right play....

i know it, you are 100% right. you ever just know you're walking into a trap, but you couldn't help yourself? of course, i also thought rutgers getting 6 at pitt was way too easy, but i still pulled the trigger. who the heck knows? if wv busts a few big plays early, rutgers will be in huge trouble.

one more stat i forgot to mention... rutgers is 4-0 as a dog this year. that's not just 4-0 ATS, but 4-0 straight up.
 
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