after a decent run, i've been fairly mediocre the last few weeks. here goes...
virginia (+13.5) 1 unit. i've downgraded this play, but i'm still throwing a unit on the cavs. more of an anti-miami play than anything. sewell is doubtful for virginia, but that's not really a bad thing. the last time miami beat a D1 team (other than central florida, and do they really count?) by more than 13 points was 9/17. people don't seem to have caught on... miami is still not very good. the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 in this matchup. ok, the under may actually be the better play here, but i'll stick with the small play on the cavs.
wisconsin/indiana over (54.5) 2 units. two teams that may not be very focused on today's game... should lead to some defensive lapses. indiana has to still be thinking about last week's debacle while wisconsin is probably feeling pretty good about themselves after last week's rout of purdon't and looking forward to next week's game against michigan.
northwestern/iowa under (45) 2 units. gotta lean towards the wildcats, too, but that just seems too obvious (they have won their last two trips to iowa). neither team's offense is particularly good (iowa's referee-aided flurry against indiana notwithstanding). kafka has 2 more TDs than INTs, and stanzi only has one more. how much longer can this iowa team continue to win with a qb who keeps giving the other team the ball? at some point, the magic has to end, right? anyway, last week against indiana and the game against michigan a few weeks ago are the only 2 iowa games in their last 10 that went over 45 points.
penn state (-5.5) 1 unit. i hate seeing so many people on psu, but the line has climbed, so i think it's the right play. two similar teams... good running games... very good defenses... the biggest difference is in the passing game. penn state has one. sure, pryor could hit a long prayer or two against a psu pass defense that still hasn't been really tested. but i think psu knows the best way to protect the defensive secondary is to pressure pryor. so....
psu/ohio st under (39) 1 unit. yes, it's obvious. but here are the totals from penn state's home games this year - 20, 31, 37, 35, & 38 (yes, i'm throwing out the 52 psu scored against eastern illinois).
stanford (+7) 1 unit. beating usc just doesn't mean as much this year. you have to expect a letdown from the ducks. stanford has covered 10 of their last 11 home games, including all 4 this year.
north carolina (-10) 1 unit. this game is usually close... duke has shown some signs of life this year... unc coming off a huge win over virginia tech... and yet the line jumped up to 10 early in the week. hmmm...
i'll add some late games soon
virginia (+13.5) 1 unit. i've downgraded this play, but i'm still throwing a unit on the cavs. more of an anti-miami play than anything. sewell is doubtful for virginia, but that's not really a bad thing. the last time miami beat a D1 team (other than central florida, and do they really count?) by more than 13 points was 9/17. people don't seem to have caught on... miami is still not very good. the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 in this matchup. ok, the under may actually be the better play here, but i'll stick with the small play on the cavs.
wisconsin/indiana over (54.5) 2 units. two teams that may not be very focused on today's game... should lead to some defensive lapses. indiana has to still be thinking about last week's debacle while wisconsin is probably feeling pretty good about themselves after last week's rout of purdon't and looking forward to next week's game against michigan.
northwestern/iowa under (45) 2 units. gotta lean towards the wildcats, too, but that just seems too obvious (they have won their last two trips to iowa). neither team's offense is particularly good (iowa's referee-aided flurry against indiana notwithstanding). kafka has 2 more TDs than INTs, and stanzi only has one more. how much longer can this iowa team continue to win with a qb who keeps giving the other team the ball? at some point, the magic has to end, right? anyway, last week against indiana and the game against michigan a few weeks ago are the only 2 iowa games in their last 10 that went over 45 points.
penn state (-5.5) 1 unit. i hate seeing so many people on psu, but the line has climbed, so i think it's the right play. two similar teams... good running games... very good defenses... the biggest difference is in the passing game. penn state has one. sure, pryor could hit a long prayer or two against a psu pass defense that still hasn't been really tested. but i think psu knows the best way to protect the defensive secondary is to pressure pryor. so....
psu/ohio st under (39) 1 unit. yes, it's obvious. but here are the totals from penn state's home games this year - 20, 31, 37, 35, & 38 (yes, i'm throwing out the 52 psu scored against eastern illinois).
stanford (+7) 1 unit. beating usc just doesn't mean as much this year. you have to expect a letdown from the ducks. stanford has covered 10 of their last 11 home games, including all 4 this year.
north carolina (-10) 1 unit. this game is usually close... duke has shown some signs of life this year... unc coming off a huge win over virginia tech... and yet the line jumped up to 10 early in the week. hmmm...
i'll add some late games soon
