i usually follow up a great week like last week with a clunker, so fading these may be a good idea. way too many plays.
michigan/wisconsin over (55) 1 unit. maybe this is too obvious, but maybe not, since it is easily the highest total in this matchup in the last 10 years. other than wisconsin's shutout of purdue 2 weeks ago, neither defense has been very good.
wake forest (-5) 1 unit. wow, wake has covered 5 straight against the seminoles. i see no reason to stop betting against fsu at this point.
clemson (-8) 2 units. clemson has covered 4 straight at nc state. and since the debacle at maryland, the tigers have covered 4 straight this year. i'm riding this train until it leaves the tracks.
illinois (-5) 3 units. absolutely love the illini here. how can they be favored over northwestern after the wildcats just won at iowa? and how can this line have gone UP? well, iowa was living on borrowed time all year. i really don't consider that a particularly impressive win against a team that barely beat northern iowa and arkansas state at home. and don't look now, but the illini have covered 3 straight games.
mississippi (-6) 1 unit. ah, the ol' miss rebels. y'all (you like how i mixed in some southern talk there?) were so good to me last year. this year... well, it's been a little disappointing. and here come the volunteers, who have covered 4 straight games. the line opens at 3... and now it's up to 6. it doesn't look like the movement was because of that little armed robbery thing earlier in the week. looks awfully fishy.
central florida (+4.5) 2 units. another bizzare line when it opened. 5.5 sure seemed low. no surprise, everybody jumped on houston. and yet, the line dropped. hmmm... i see absolutely nothing to indicate central florida having any shot in this game. so naturally i'm all over them.
iowa/ohio state under (38) 1 unit. wow, how fast has iowa fallen? they are suddenly getting 16 ponts? ohio state has dominated this matchup the last 8 years, but i have a feeling the under, as obvious as it is, is the right play. iowa's defense should step up today and contain ohio state's running game. and their pass defense has been very good all year; they should pick off pryor a few times. meanwhile, iowa has averaged 13.5 points/game against the buckeyes in those 8 years. throw out the 33-point explosion in '04, and that average drops to 10 points/ game.
north carolina (+3) 1 unit. i'm just going to continue betting against miami, especially against a good pass defense. north carolina is ranked 5th in the country in pass defense. the tarheels are 4-0-1 ATS against miami.
nevada (-7) 1 unit. talk about a line that doesn't make sense. how is nevada laying this many points? fresno has played a much tougher schedule and, oh yeah, THEY ARE 5-0 ATS ON THE ROAD. something strange is afoot at the circle k.
i'll post a few more in a bit, including my GOY involving two teams from the state of louisianna. that's right, this is bigger than lsu/tulane or UL monroe/UL lafayette.
michigan/wisconsin over (55) 1 unit. maybe this is too obvious, but maybe not, since it is easily the highest total in this matchup in the last 10 years. other than wisconsin's shutout of purdue 2 weeks ago, neither defense has been very good.
wake forest (-5) 1 unit. wow, wake has covered 5 straight against the seminoles. i see no reason to stop betting against fsu at this point.
clemson (-8) 2 units. clemson has covered 4 straight at nc state. and since the debacle at maryland, the tigers have covered 4 straight this year. i'm riding this train until it leaves the tracks.
illinois (-5) 3 units. absolutely love the illini here. how can they be favored over northwestern after the wildcats just won at iowa? and how can this line have gone UP? well, iowa was living on borrowed time all year. i really don't consider that a particularly impressive win against a team that barely beat northern iowa and arkansas state at home. and don't look now, but the illini have covered 3 straight games.
mississippi (-6) 1 unit. ah, the ol' miss rebels. y'all (you like how i mixed in some southern talk there?) were so good to me last year. this year... well, it's been a little disappointing. and here come the volunteers, who have covered 4 straight games. the line opens at 3... and now it's up to 6. it doesn't look like the movement was because of that little armed robbery thing earlier in the week. looks awfully fishy.
central florida (+4.5) 2 units. another bizzare line when it opened. 5.5 sure seemed low. no surprise, everybody jumped on houston. and yet, the line dropped. hmmm... i see absolutely nothing to indicate central florida having any shot in this game. so naturally i'm all over them.
iowa/ohio state under (38) 1 unit. wow, how fast has iowa fallen? they are suddenly getting 16 ponts? ohio state has dominated this matchup the last 8 years, but i have a feeling the under, as obvious as it is, is the right play. iowa's defense should step up today and contain ohio state's running game. and their pass defense has been very good all year; they should pick off pryor a few times. meanwhile, iowa has averaged 13.5 points/game against the buckeyes in those 8 years. throw out the 33-point explosion in '04, and that average drops to 10 points/ game.
north carolina (+3) 1 unit. i'm just going to continue betting against miami, especially against a good pass defense. north carolina is ranked 5th in the country in pass defense. the tarheels are 4-0-1 ATS against miami.
nevada (-7) 1 unit. talk about a line that doesn't make sense. how is nevada laying this many points? fresno has played a much tougher schedule and, oh yeah, THEY ARE 5-0 ATS ON THE ROAD. something strange is afoot at the circle k.
i'll post a few more in a bit, including my GOY involving two teams from the state of louisianna. that's right, this is bigger than lsu/tulane or UL monroe/UL lafayette.
