Saturday Plays

[Spock]

lots of games today so gotta be careful. One thing I would like to mention is that I have seen Saturday as being high scoring .. at least the Sat. i have been following.

Also the sports database link .. that site is down so research is restricted.

Will put up early games and then come back later for the rest. Play is for 2%.


Atlanta @ NY Rangers Under 6 Goals

Looks like an easy over .. mebbe but i beg to differ.

Rangers lost 7-4 in Atlanta last time out. Have the forgotton that. I dont think so. Atlanta has been playing well under Hartley who has been successful in getting the players to buy into his defence and offensive system.

Nurminen has looked good in the net. Dunham has been doing a stellar job and I look for both of the goaltenders to have a good game. Rangers are playing much more physical hockey and the only thing i am concerned about is the Penalties taken by either team. Atlanta is really good at PP in last 5 . but Rangers have killed the penalty very well also.

Both teams averaging a lot of goals in last 5 .. Atlanta averaging 3.2 .. Rangers averaging 3.6 goals ..

Both teams playing very good defensively .. Atlanta giving up 2.4 goals in each of last 5 games while Rangers are giving up 1.6 goals per game.

Atlanta is allowing 26 and Rangers 27.4 shots on goal per game. I see around 55 combined shots by both teams. The key her is how many shots will be genuine goal scoring opportunities.

Couple of other points also point me to the under. This is an early game. Have noticed that in most sports where the games are earlier than usual the under comes out on top of the over. Mebbe players are more lethargic .. possibly. hopefully not on the defensive end.

Tit bit: Rangers are 9 - 2 Under when playing on Saturdays

Good luck ..

# no play on Caps and Montreal for me. The Caps defence has been downright useless for my unders. Take the lead and then dont play any defence has been their motto.

# in the pitts game may go for Pitts under 2 1/2 goals but Chicago has been playing awful defence and they are on the road. Got to dig deeper but the stats database being down is bad.

 

[ddubs]

I hate big cards, too many games give me a headache. I have a hard time narrowing down plays, especially today. Took a lot out of me to play just one this morning .

Good luck today, bud.

 

[T-roe]

GOOD LUCK SPOCK LET WIN SOME MONEY$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Chenker]

good luck Spock-

got any more unders for today?

 

[donly1ace]

Good call Spock! I'll make sure I check your night caps! Bonne chance ce soir! (means Good luck tonight!)

 

[Spock]

Hi Chenker .. got a couple ..

Atlanta @ Rangers Under was a winner. Am trying to narrow down the plays to see which would be a high percentage play.
The database being down is not helping my cause. Will go ahead and post the plays I am gonna make.

I am making two plays in the Ottowa - Sabres game. Instead of putting 3% on the Sens Team Total Under I am gonna put 1.5% each on Sens Team Total Under 3 and Sabres Game Total Under 5
I would love to put 2% on each play but since one total is tied with the other do not wanna get screwed by an empty netter or late goal affecting both bets.

Ottowa Senators Under 3 Goals


Sabre @ Sens Under 5 Goals



Ottowa coming off a tough road trip. Can be possible chance of a letdown though they have played extremely well @ home.

The under is 14-6 in Sabres road games.
BUF's last five overall have played under

Who is gonna win the bankruptcy bowl ?

Havlat is Qs for today. That is good for the Under.

In last 5 games Sabres are averaging 25.2 shots on goal
Ottowa is averaging 26.2 shots on goal

Sabres have allowed 27 shots on goal while Ottowa has
allowed 24 shots on goal in the last 5

I see a game with not a lot of shots on goal. Good checking and not a lot of open chances.

Buffalo has been just great defensively. In last 5 games they have not allowed a single power play goal. 4 shutouts in last 5 games.

Ottowa has allowed 2.4 goals in last 5 games. The number would have been lower but TB scored 6 goals on an off night for Sens and Thrashers scored a late goal in the third. Otherwise their defence has been pretty good.

In last 5 games Sabres have scored 1.6 goals per game
Ottowa has scored 3 goals per game

Buffalo scored 4 against a useless Toronto team yesterday otherwise the number would be even lower. They are winning or getting points on the basis of their defence and not offence and this is very clear to them.

Ottowa scored 5 against Caps in one game but in the other 4 have not scored more than 3 goals.

For the season Sens are 2'nd in PP after the Pens but Sabres have been excellent with the penalty kill.

I think a total of 3 goals will be scored in this one.

Keys : Biron has been hot and i think the coach will start him. Even if he starts Miller, Miller held Ottowa to 1 goal last time out making some 30 odd saves.

Prusek will be starting instead of Lalime. I look for a good defensive effort from Sens after giving up the late goal to Atlanta and the showing in TB.

forgot to add this hence the edit:

One of the very important things for an under to come in is the way two teams play each other .. is it more of a defensive oriented game or is the hockey more free style with lots of open looks.

30 of 37 games betn these two teams have gone Under the Total
8 of 10 games in the last 3 seasons have gone Under the Total
16 of 19 games have gone Under the Total for all games played @ Ottowa since 1996
5 of 5 games have gone Under the Total for meetings betn these two teams @ Ottowa in the last 3 seasons.



Good luck
Cheers !!!
Spock

# have 2 more plays .. b back with it shortly.

 

[Spock]

Adding

Carolina @ Florida Under 5 Goals

Same match up yesterday .. I got screwed bcoz Florida allowed a goal late in second to give carolina 3 goals .. Florida struggling on offence .. but @ home are great on defence ..

Carolina is desperate now and against a struggling offence will put up a much better defensive show .. Carolina are fourth in the league in penalty mins . which is not good ..

The under is 12-3-4 in FLA's last 19 overall.
The under is 5-1-3 in the last nine meetings

Carolina had a ridiculous number .. i think around 35 shots in the first two periods yesterday .. i look for a much much much better defensive effort from florida today ..

Irbe may be heating up .. he shud b in the goal today. Luongo got rest for the third Q .. so he shud be back in goal as there was no injury reported.

In the last 3 seasons 8 of 10 games have gone Under the total
In the last 3 seasons 4 of 5 games have gone under for their meetings in Florida.

# have a plan on the minny game which i will post later after I have finished more research.

 

[Spock]

Adding

Minny @ Sharks Under 5 Goals

Not much to say here except that I expect the goaltending to be excellent. Roloson shud hold his own. Only concern is the high number of shots given up by Minny. But the penalty killing has been excellent and PP by both teams is not that good. Was thinking about playing Sharks Under 2 1/2 Goals but bcoz their defensive effort against Devils last game out was horrible I expect better stuff from them today.

Minny has also not been scoring a lot lately. Other than the explosion offensively and defensively by Sharks against devils I think the game will be played much more defensively today.

The under is 6-1 in MIN's last seven overall.
The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
The under is 4-1-1 in SJ's last six overall
3 of 5 games in shark land have gone under between these teams
In Jan Games over last 3 seasons Minny is 21 - 9 Under
After scoring 4 or more goals over last 3 seasons Sharks are
38 - 18 Under
In this season Sharks are 6 - 1 Under on 2 days of rest
Over last 3 seasons Shares are 29 - 11 Under on 2 days of rest




In last 5 games Minny is averaging 1.8 goals per game. Out of these 5 games Minny scored 5 goals in one game against Canucks. Take out that game and Minny has scored 2, 2, 0 and 0 goals in the other 4

In last 5 games Sharks are averaging 2.0 goals per game .. keep in mind that this number is 2.0 bcoz they scored 4 goals in the last game against Devils. In 4 prior games they had 1, 1, 2 and 2 goals

In last 5 games Minny has been stingy @ giving up goals. Roloson has been playing extremely well.

I expect good defensive intensity by the Sharks after Devils scored 5 goals on them. I expect around 3 goals to be scored in this one.

Good luck
Spock

# Am playing a parlay also :
Sens Game Under 5 Goals
Florida Game Under 5 Goals
Minny Game Under 5 Goals

 

[Spock]

Sorry for the vent guys ..

fockin Sens game .. 4 goals out of 6 on PowerPlays ..

6+ goals are scored after a scoreless first period .. what the fock
:shrug:

hopefully florida and carolina dont score 3 in the third.

 

[Spock]

wow .. Florida scores with a min left in OT ..

get screwed by Ottowa in OT .. now by Florida in OT .. what next ..

mebbe Minny game gonna go to OT also ..

 

[donly1ace]

No breaks for you so far tonight... Some nights you love OT and others you hate it... Hope your last one comes in.

Spock, what was your lean for the Minne-San Jose game? I was wondering why you did not choose a team Total instead of the game Total. I presume you had mixed feelings about the winner, therefore choosing the Game Total...

I have taken the Sharks tonight but the Minnesota Total is tickling me... Thanks for your input!

 

[Spock]

Minny not scoring a lot on offence .. I expect Sharks to be good on defence after losing to the devils in a shootout ..

minny shud play solid defence .. of course the logic does not always translate into a win .. i mean scoreless first Q in ottowa and then 7 goals .. stupid penalties .. no calls .. :shrug:

but i would lean to game under.