last weekend was damn near perfect, so i'll probably regress to the mean this weekend.
sf (-7) 2 units
over (44.5) 2 units. the more i think about this game, the more i like san fran. i was tempted to throw some more on them, but decided against it.
i'm not going to dig up the numbers again, but minnesota's defense was a LOT better at home this year than on the road. that is going to put more pressure on kirk cousins, and dee ford should be back for this game. he'll help that defensive line that has been decimated by injuries. if the niners get a lead, cousins has to deal with sf's 2nd ranked pass defense. i really like the niners and their balanced offense to put up a lot of points today.
tenn 1st half (+5.5) 2 units
tenn 1st half over (8.5) 1 unit
balt 1st half over (13.5) 1 unit
1st half over (23.5) 2 units
tenn (+9.5) 3 units
tenn (ML) 1 unit to win 3.6
over (47) 4 units. ok, i may have gone a little crazy on this game. my biggest fear is ryan tannehill continues to play like, well, ryan tannehill. i need him to play like the guy wearing the tannehill jersey this season. that guy had a qb rating of 120 against the blitz this year. and nobody blitzed in 2019 more than the ravens. but the real weakness of the ravens' defense is against the run. as i've mentioned earlier this year, their run defense hasn't been tested much this year because they've had a lot of big leads. but, by dvoa rankings, they are 19th against the run. and they especially struggle with the outside run game. which just so happens to be derrick henry's strength. IF the titans can get henry on the edge, he's going to have another big game. and, obviously, that takes the pressure off tannehill.
on the other side of the ball, the big question is, of course, can tennessee slow down the ravens' run game? the loss of jayon brown isn't going to help. i'm hoping the titans' corners are good enough that they can single cover the receivers and stack the box. and, really, the key is stopping jackson on the ground. tennessee's run defense was ok this year, 10th in the league by dvoa rankings. i'm counting on mike vrabel and dean pees (yes, dean pees. he is the titans' dc. and was the ravens' dc from 2012 - 2017.) to come up with something.
anyway, i think both offenses can score some points tonight. i'd love for this to be a 35-34 game in the 4th quarter.
(the more i think about ryan tannehill and dean pees, the more worried i get. dean pees. dean. pees.)
sf (-7) 2 units
over (44.5) 2 units. the more i think about this game, the more i like san fran. i was tempted to throw some more on them, but decided against it.
i'm not going to dig up the numbers again, but minnesota's defense was a LOT better at home this year than on the road. that is going to put more pressure on kirk cousins, and dee ford should be back for this game. he'll help that defensive line that has been decimated by injuries. if the niners get a lead, cousins has to deal with sf's 2nd ranked pass defense. i really like the niners and their balanced offense to put up a lot of points today.
tenn 1st half (+5.5) 2 units
tenn 1st half over (8.5) 1 unit
balt 1st half over (13.5) 1 unit
1st half over (23.5) 2 units
tenn (+9.5) 3 units
tenn (ML) 1 unit to win 3.6
over (47) 4 units. ok, i may have gone a little crazy on this game. my biggest fear is ryan tannehill continues to play like, well, ryan tannehill. i need him to play like the guy wearing the tannehill jersey this season. that guy had a qb rating of 120 against the blitz this year. and nobody blitzed in 2019 more than the ravens. but the real weakness of the ravens' defense is against the run. as i've mentioned earlier this year, their run defense hasn't been tested much this year because they've had a lot of big leads. but, by dvoa rankings, they are 19th against the run. and they especially struggle with the outside run game. which just so happens to be derrick henry's strength. IF the titans can get henry on the edge, he's going to have another big game. and, obviously, that takes the pressure off tannehill.
on the other side of the ball, the big question is, of course, can tennessee slow down the ravens' run game? the loss of jayon brown isn't going to help. i'm hoping the titans' corners are good enough that they can single cover the receivers and stack the box. and, really, the key is stopping jackson on the ground. tennessee's run defense was ok this year, 10th in the league by dvoa rankings. i'm counting on mike vrabel and dean pees (yes, dean pees. he is the titans' dc. and was the ravens' dc from 2012 - 2017.) to come up with something.
anyway, i think both offenses can score some points tonight. i'd love for this to be a 35-34 game in the 4th quarter.
(the more i think about ryan tannehill and dean pees, the more worried i get. dean pees. dean. pees.)
