so close to 3-0, but instead went 0-3 yesterday. that buffalo td at the end of the half killed me.
no/tenn over (50) 2 units. the line drop here is making me nervous, but with henry out, i think tenn has to throw the ball more. it's going to be wet in nashville, but not too windy. one note i will make on the side... sure, NO seems low at -3. like it's begging for NO money. but it's a realistic line. assuming 3 points for home field, that line means NO would be favored by 9 at home. which makes sense. if this line went higher than 3, every sharp out there would hammer it. and vegas doesn't like one-sided action. i fall into this trap a lot myself, and i lose a lot of plays when that short-numbered fav covers.
cincinnati (ML) 1.1 units to win 1. ok, this line IS screaming for action on one side. the dolphins, who have looked almost competent against some of the dregs of the league recently, now get the worst team in the league. at home. AND THE BENGALS ARE FAVORED? ok, this is painful. but i'll bite with a small play. i actually like this bet more, but can't bring myself to put more than one unit on it.
arizona (+9.5) 2 units
arizona (ML) 1 unit to win 3.1. seattle's largest margin of victory at home this year is 7. and that was against a minnesota team that was too stupid to run the ball against a mediocre run defense. before dalvin cook got hurt halfway through the 3rd quarter, he had all of 9 carries. well, believe it or not, arizona is 3rd in the league, averaging 4.9 yards/carry. if, and this is always a huge IF, the cardinals realize they need to run the ball, they can stay in this game and possibly get a win.
dallas/phil under (46.5) 2 units. this actually feels too easy, but with the season on the line, i think we'll see two fired up defenses deciding this game.
minn 1st H (-3.5) 2 units
minn (-5.5) 4 units
under (46.5) 1 unit. looks like i got bad lines all around on this game. oh well. the vikes are a different team at home, and a different team with adam thielen. the packers have lost 2 of their last 3 road games, with the only win being at the giants.
