saturday totals >>>

[loophole]

3-2 again last night, 10-7 since posting. two daytime plays so far:


atl/col under 12: see no reason to stop making this play. rockies now 6-15 under @ coors this year. atl 5-15 under on the road. these teams now 4-10-1 under last 15 and remarkably have played under 9 of the last 10 mtgs in denver. millwood has owned the rockies, 5-1, 2.81 era over 51.1 innings lifetime, and an amazing 4-0, 1.50 era @ coors. young stark pitched a gem on monday against the marlins. braves have never seen him so let's hope he can hold form against atl's anemic road offense. jim wolf a fairly neutral home plate ump but has called under 7 of his last 10 under fwiw. solid bullpens all around.


min/nyy under 10: seems natural to come back with the under between these two after last night. am i the only one that giambi's grand slam last night cost bigtime? even with that outburst, these two teams have still played under 8 of last 11 mtgs. lilly allowed the twins 2 er in his first ever start against them last saturday. more impressively, he has a 1.64 era over 22 daytime innings this year, and is under 8 of his last 10 starts. fiore has pitched well this year in relief, including 4 scoreless innings vs the yankees. after a two year layoff, home plate ump gary darling has returned with an expanded strike zone (64.2% called strikes) and has been under in 6 of 7 this season. again, bullpens solid on both sides. all in all, it looks like it's going to be the kind of dreary, rainy day in yankee stadium that seems to usually produce an under.

be back with some later games.

 

[slvrblet]

LOOP...IT COST ME BIG TIME..AS IT DID LAST WEEK WHEN THESE TWO PITCHERS MATCHED UP....REED 0-2

 

[loophole]

one more day play

one more day play

tex/det over 9: i vascillated for awhile on this one, but the number here is just too low imo. park showed well against the tigers last sunday in his first return since a hammy injury, but with the cold weather he will surely be on a strict pitch count and that puts us into the shakey ranger bullpen, maybe even ultimate stooge john rocker (be still my beating heart). anyway, park never has been too impressive on the road or in the daytime. sparks just the thing to bring the rangers to life, they have rocked him for a 6.28 era over 77.1 innings. don't see much help in the detroit pen either. home plate ump wegner 7-2 to the over this year.

 

[loophole]

for tonight:

for tonight:

phi/ az over 7-: looks like a good place to get back on the snakes over at bank one. az 13-6 over at home, philly 13-6 over on the road this year. no way duckworth rates having a total like this hung on one of his starts, especially the road where his era is pushing 9, and especially with the philly bp. phillies have handled schilling better than most, with 9 er's over 18 innings. d'backs have also given schilling pretty good run support this year, scoring 54 runs in his 9 starts. bruce froemming is one of my umps i'm playing over right now. although his total results this year have not reflected it, he's got one of the smaller strike zones in the game, and has been especially bettable in games with totals of 8 or under - over 9 of 11 over the last three seasons.

 

[ndnfan]

came really close to making the OVER a play in the Arizona game...just couldn't pull the trigger. Definately think you're on the right side on all these you played today.

I have a strict rule though....I never add games once I have them capped and the bets placed. So I'm just gonna stick with what I've played. That 'over Arizona' is tempting though.

 

[loophole]

more

more

nym/sd over 7-: this play flies into both team trends but is the right side tonight i think. ndnfan is right, tomko's numbers vs the mets are poor, but all his starts against them date from at least three years ago so can't give that a lot of weight. still, you don't see a total like this one on many of his games, ndnfan also rightly points out that estes walks a lot of batters and is not going to like marty foster's miniscule strike zone. i see a lot of padres on base tonight. i think you can count on tomko to give up at least 3 runs, the padres should supply the rest.


ana/cws over 9-: ortiz a good starter but the sox have hit him well, 7.47 era over 15.2 innings, and he is prone to give up the dinger on the road w/ 8 hr's over 38 road innings. glover is a pretender and the angels chased him in 4 a week ago. no help in the sox pen. as a bonus of unknown value, for some reason home plate ump chris guccione has called angel games 7-0 to the over in his career.


kc/cle over 10: i told gsp i was going to play this if the first game went under and going to stick with it. i don't think may is ready for prime time and drese is just horrible imo. these two teams don't have enough bullpen to back up these guys in the second game of a doubleheader. reliford another hitter's ump.

 

[loophole]

edited post above to correct line in kc/cle game from 9 to 10. misposted earlier. gl