Saturday Trends

[soul train]

Friday, September 30th

Pittsburgh at Rutgers, 8:00 EST ESPN2
Pittsburgh - 9-2 Under off BB road games
Rutgers - 4-16 ATS off a bye week

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Saturday, October 1st

Illinois at Iowa, 12:00 EST ESPN
Illinois - 1-8 ATS off a loss by 17+ points
Iowa - 12-1 ATS in home games

Indiana at Wisconsin, 12:00 EST ESPN2
Indiana - 1-7 ATS off BB games scoring 31+ points
Wisconsin - 8-1 ATS in home games

(TC) Syracuse at Florida State, 3:30 EST ABC
Syracuse - 8-20 ATS as a road underdog
Florida State - 9-2 Under off BB straight up wins

Michigan at Michigan State, 12:00 EST ABC
Michigan - 8-2 Under off a loss by 3 points or less
Michigan State - 18-6 ATS off a road win

(TC) Colorado at Oklahoma State, 2:00 EST
Colorado - 2-11 ATS away after forcing 0 turnovers
Oklahoma State - 5-1 ATS off BB non-conference games

Virginia at Maryland, 12:00 EST
Virginia - 16-6 Under in October
Maryland - 0-6 ATS in the first half of the season

(TC) Clemson at Wake Forest, 3:30 EST
Clemson - 6-1 ATS off a home loss by 3 points or less
Wake Forest - 4-12 ATS off a conference game

Virginia Tech at West Virginia, 12:00 EST ESPN2
Virginia Tech - 10-2 ATS off an ATS win
West Virginia - 5-15 ATS vs. ACC opponents

Mississippi at Tennessee, 12:30 EST
Mississippi - 12-4 ATS off BB games forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Tennessee - 4-11 ATS in home games

(TC) Iowa State at Nebraska, 3:30 EST ABC
Iowa State - 13-29 ATS away on artificial turf
Nebraska - 21-8 ATS at home in October

Baylor at Texas A&M, 12:30 EST
Baylor - 5-1 Under vs. conference opponents
Texas A&M - 16-3 ATS off BB games forcing 3+ turnovers

Ball State at Boston College, 1:00 EST
Ball State - 3-10 ATS in road games
Boston College - 6-0 Over off BB conference games

Navy at Duke, 1:00 EST
Navy - 7-1 ATS off a straight up loss
Duke - 3-10 ATS in the first half of the season

Kent State at Eastern Michigan, 2:00 EST
Kent State - 7-3 ATS off a conference loss
Eastern Michigan - 8-14 ATS off a straight up win

(TC) Florida at Alabama, 3:30 EST CBS
Florida - 13-4 Over off a road win by 10+ points
Alabama - 9-21 ATS at home off an Under

LSU at Mississippi State, 2:30 EST
LSU - 8-2 ATS in road games
Mississippi State - 4-9 ATS off a conference loss

UNLV at Wyoming, 3:00 EST
UNLV - 5-16 ATS after allowing 100 rushing yards or less
Wyoming - 6-0 ATS in home games

(TC) Connecticut at Army, 12:00 EST ESPNU
Connecticut - 15-5 ATS away off BB non-conference games
Army - 2-9 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Minnesota at Penn State, 3:30 EST ABC
Minnesota - 13-4 ATS in the first half of the season
Penn State - 2-8 ATS off a straight up win

(TC) Texas at Missouri, 12:00 EST ABC
Texas - 7-2 ATS in road games
Missouri - 2-9 ATS off a home win by 28+ points

(TC) Utah at North Carolina, 1:30 EST
Utah - 19-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
North Carolina - 5-17 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents

USC at Arizona State, 3:30 EST ABC
USC - 14-2 ATS off a conference game
Arizona State - 2-8 ATS off a road game

(TC) Washington at UCLA, 10:15 EST FSN
Washington - 0-7 ATS on grass fields
UCLA - 7-0 ATS off an Over

(TC) Arizona at California, 7:00 EST TBS
Arizona - 16-31 ATS off an Over
California - 7-1 Under off BB games scoring 31+ points

Temple at Bowling Green, 4:00 EST
Temple - 2-10 ATS vs. MAC opponents
Bowling Green - 9-1 ATS at home off BB road games

Washington State at Oregon State, 4:00 EST
Washington State - 0-7 ATS in October
Oregon State - 21-9 ATS as a home favorite

SMU at Marshall, 4:30 EST
SMU - 2-11 ATS in road games
Marshall - 7-3 ATS off a conference loss

Utah State at Idaho, 5:00 EST
Utah State - 4-14 ATS away off a win
Idaho - 5-1 ATS off BB losses by 17+ points

Oregon at Stanford, 5:00 EST
Oregon - 12-4 ATS off a conference game
Stanford - 12-26 ATS after having 75 or less rushing yards

Southern Mississippi at East Carolina, 6:00 EST
Southern Miss - 9-1 ATS off a non-conference game
East Carolina - 0-8 ATS at home off an Under

Central Michiagn at Akron, 6:00 EST
Central Michigan - 4-13 ATS off a conference game
Akron - 6-1 ATS off a home win

Nevada at San Jose State, 7:00 EST ABC
Nevada - 12-3 in road games
San Jose State - 1-13 ATS off BB road losses

(TC) South Florida at Miami FL, 8:00 EST ESPNU
South Florida - 5-1 ATS off BB games scoring 20+ first-half points
Miami FL - 0-6 ATS off an ATS win as a favorite of 10+ points

(TC) Notre Dame at Purdue, 7:45 EST ESPN
Notre Dame - 10-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Purdue - 8-2 Under in home games

Rice at UAB, 7:00 EST
Rice - 4-15 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards
UAB - 7-1 ATS in October

Buffalo at Western Michigan, 7:00 EST
Buffalo - 3-11 ATS in road games
Western Michigan - 5-1 Under off a straight up win

Houston at Tulsa, 7:00 EST
Houston - 2-12 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less
Tulsa - 5-1 Under off a home game

Kansas at Texas Tech, 7:00 EST
Kansas - 5-15 ATS after having 75 or less rushing yards
Texas Tech - 7-0 ATS at home in the first half of the season

Kansas State at Oklahoma, 7:00 EST
Kansas State - 26-12 ATS off a home win by 28+ points
Oklahoma - 1-10 ATS at home off a loss by 17+ points

New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech, 7:00 EST
New Mexico State - 7-0 ATS off BB games allowing 225+ rushing yards
Louisiana Tech - 2-12 ATS off a bye week

New Mexico at TCU, 7:00 EST
New Mexico - 16-6 ATS off an Under
TCU - 2-12 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards

(TC) South Carolina at Auburn, 7:00 EST ESPN2
South Carolina - 8-20 ATS off an Over
Auburn - 8-1 ATS in October

UTEP at Memphis, 8:00 EST
UTEP - 8-0 ATS in October
Memphis - 3-13 ATS after allowing 37+ points

BYU at San Diego State, 10:00 EST ESPNC
BYU - 15-5 Under off a conference loss
San Diego State - 4-18 ATS off BB ATS wins

Boise State at Hawaii, 11:59 EST
Boise State - 12-2 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Hawaii - 9-2 Over off BB ATS wins


Added Games

Florida Atlantic at Louisville, 12:00 EST ESPNC
Florida Atlantic - 0-6 ATS on grass fields
Louisville - 6-0 ATS in home games

Arkansas State at Louisiana Monroe, 7:00 EST
Arkansas State - 8-2 ATS after gaining 6.25+ yards per play
LA Monroe - 3-12 ATS off a straight up win

Middle Tennessee State at Vanderbilt, 7:00 EST
Mid Tenn State - 1-5 ATS off a bye week
Vanderbilt - 7-0 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers

Central Florida at Louisiana Lafayette, 8:00 EST
Central Florida - 8-2 Under first half of the season
LA Lafayette - 1-6 ATS off a bye week

 

[soul train]

Coaching Trends:

College Football

TCU: Patterson is 0-6 ATS after scoring 14 or less points.

Virginia: Groh is 8-1 ATS away after a non-conference game

West Virginia: Rodriguez is 0-8 ATS versus non-conference opponents

Maryland: 10-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

SMU: Bennett is 3-13 ATS as a road underdog

Toledo: Amstutz is 8-0 ATS after a home win by 28 or more points.

Temple: Wallace is 1-9 ATS vs. MAC teams

Wake Forest: Grobe is 3-13 ATS as a favorite

Boston College: O'Brien is 10-2 ATS at home after allowing 14 or less points

Michigan State: Smith 2-9 ATS in non-conference games.

Alabama: Shula is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 or -3.

Virginia Tech: Beamer is 14-5 ATS after BB games with one or less turnovers

California: Tedford is 13-5 ATS off a road game.

South Florida: Leavitt is 0-6 ATS at home after forcing 1 or less turnovers

Connecticut: Edsall is 14-0 ATS after forcing 3 or more turnovers.

Rice: Hatfield is 13-5 ATS after a road game with a turnover ratio of -2 or more.

Fresno State: Hill is 9-2 ATS vs. Pac 10 teams

LA Tech: Bicknell 6-16 ATS away in the first half of the year.

Wyoming: Glenn is 11-3 ATS off an ATS win.

Miami (FL): Coker is 0-8 ATS after allowing 75 or less passing yards.

Florida: Meyer is 13-2 ATS in September

New Mexico State: Mumme is 2-11 ATS after going under the total in their previous game.

Purdue: Tiller is 3-12 ATS away after scoring 24 points in the first half of their previous game.

Arizona State: Kotter is 9-1 ATS after scoring 31 or more points in BB games

Northwestern: Walker is 5-14 ATS off a SU home win

USC: Carroll is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points.

 

[soul train]

Other Games of Interest
-- Iowa is 15-2 vs spread as double digit home favorite. Illinois is 6-14 vs spread in last 20 Big 11 road games.
-- Florida State won 17-13 at Carrier Dome last year, as 19-point favorites; they're 7-10 in last 17 tries as road favorite.
-- Colorado is 6-3 in last nine games as road favorite, 9-3 vs spread in last dozen games on carpet.
-- Home team covered eight of last 11 Virginia-Maryland games. Terps already have two home losses this season, vs Clemson, West Virginia.
-- Short week for Tennessee, which had miracle comeback vs LSU Monday night; Clausen gets nod at QB for Vols. Dogs covered seven of last nine Ole Miss-Tennessee tilts.
-- Ball State lost its three games by combined score of 159-34. Boston College in Clemson-Virginia sandwich; they beat Cardinals by just 19-11 at Muncie last year. Cardinals 3-10 in last 13 tries as road dog.
-- Duke is 8-12 in last 20 tries as home dog, 1-8 vs spread in non-ACC home games.
-- Road team covered six of last nine Kent State-E. Michigan games.
-- Also short week for LSU after blowing 21-point lead at home for first time in 112 year history of program; they're 12-5-1 vs spread in last 18 SEC road games, and 6-1 in last seven tries as road favorite.
-- Underdog covered seven of last nine Wyoming-UNLV games, with Cowboys covering their last four visits to the Strip.
-- Utah hammered North Carolina last year, 46-16, outgaining Heels 669-221; Utes covered 22 of their last 29 non-league road games.
-- UCLA won seven of its last eight vs Washington (7-0-1 vs spread); will they look ahead to Cal game next week? Huskies lost last two visits to Rose Bowl, 35-13/46-16.
-- Bowling Green went to Philly and waxed Temple last year, 70-16, their fourth cover in five tries vs Owls.
-- Favorite is 10-3 vs spread in last 13 Washington St-Oregon St games; Coogs lost last two trips to Corvallis, 38-9/38-19.
-- In its two games vs D-I teams this year, Marshall (11.5-point favorite in this game) has been outscored 38-3 in first half, outrushed 284-85 and converted just 9 of 36 third down plays.
-- Home side won last three Utah St-Idaho games, with Vandals winning last meeting here, 20-13. Problem is, Idaho been outscored 58-6 last two games- they were shut out at home by Hawai'i last week.
-- Oregon had its Super bowl last week, leading USC for half, before being outscored 35-0 in second half; they won last three games vs Stanford by 41-14/35-0 and 16-13 scores. Cardinal lost to I-AA Cal-Davis, so they're suspect.
-- Southern Mississippi is 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games vs East Carolina, but Pirates covered last five tries as a home dog.
-- Dogs are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 Central Michigan-Akron games. Zips are 3-7 in last ten tries as home favorite.
-- UAB is 8-11 as home favorite since 1998.
-- Buffalo has been outscored 86-3 so far this season, with all three games staying under total. Western Michigan won 31-17 at Buffalo in their last meeting, as 11-point road favorite.
-- Houston is 3-6 as road dog under Briles. Tulsa allowed 335 rushing yards last week, still beat Memphis in OT.
-- Underdog covered four of the last five Kansas-Texas Tech games; Tech won 31-30 at Lawrence last year. Last three series games decided by total of 10 points.
-- Louisiana Tech is double digit favorite, despite losing its two games by combined score of 75-17. New Mexico State covered two of last 11 conference road games.
-- New Mexico covered ten of last twelve Mountain West road games.
-- BYU covered six of its last seven games vs San Diego State, but just three of its last 12 as a road favorite. - Boise State pounded Hawai'i last year 69-3; they won last two trips to this site by 28-21/45-28 scores. Warriors are 13-7 in last 20 games as home dog.
-- Florida Atlantic coach Schnellenberger coached Louisville to bowl win over Alabama; his Florida Atlantic team is 0-4, losing by average score of 32-12. Cardinals lost last week, but covered last six tries as home favorite.
-- Underdog covered last five Arkansas State-UL-Monroe games.
-- Middle Tennessee won last two games vs Vanderbilt, 37-28/ 21-20, as 7 and 6-point dog, but Commodores off to best start in 20 years; one of their WR's was shot in arm at party last week.
-- - O'Leary won his first game in 14 tries at Central Florida last week, now he's road favorite to win #2. UL-Lafayette is 0-5 vs spread after bye, 6-13 vs spread after a win, 4-2 as home dog.

 

[soul train]

Saturday's games
Televised games
Wisconsin on letdown alert after beating Michigan at home last week, but they've lost last two games vs Indiana, both as double digit favorites (IU won last visit here 63-32, as 14-pt dogs), so doubt they'll look past 3-0 Hoosiers, who step way up in class here. Indiana is 9-21 in last 30 tries as road dog, 13-27 vs spread in Big 11 play and 2-7 vs spread after a bye.

My records go back 26 years, and I can't find State favored in this series. Michigan won four of last five games vs Spartans, with only loss 26-24 in '01; State lost this game 45-37 in OT last year, but had 368-223 edge running ball. Wolverines were 24-35/ 273 passing last year; they're 4-2 in last six tries as a road dog,
4-10 vs spread in last fourteen games on natural grass. At 2-2, desperate times for Lloyd Carr's Wolverines.

Clemson lost last two weeks in OT, after two nail-biting wins to open season; this is softest game they've had so far, vs 1-3 Wake team that is underachieving (home losses to Vandy, Maryland). Tigers won four of last five series meetings, winning in OT last year, but they lost last visit here 45-17. Clemson is 3 for last 28 on third down, and 1-4 as road favorite since '02. Wake is 10-3-2 vs spread in last fifteen series games.

Favorite is 8-3 vs spread in Virginia Tech-West Virginia rivalry, home team covered seven of last nine (they recruit against each other a lot, but this is not a league game); last four series totals have been 38 or less, as both sides completed less than half their passes in last year's 19-13 Tech win. Hokies won last three games by combined margin of 141-7. WVa 3-1 in last four tries as a home dog.

Home side is 11-2 vs spread last 13 Iowa State-Nebraska games, winning last four SU, as Cyclones losing last two visits to this site, 48-14/28-0. Both sides completed less than half their passes in last year's 34-27 ISU win in Ames. ISU offensive coach came to Ames from Nebraska-- Cyclones haven't won in Lincoln for 4+ decades. Huskers are 3-0, outscoring foes 30-3 in first half. Pivotal game for both sides.

Baylor shocked Texas A&M 35-34 in OT last year, going for 2 in OT, and pulling upset as 25-point dog; Bears are 5-5 as road dog under Morriss, 2-6 vs spread after bye, but 3-0 SU, winning at SMU, Army. Aggies covered nine of last 12 series games, 6-1 vs spread in last seven home dog- they beat SMU 66-8, a team Baylor was life-and-death to beat, 28-23.

Florida 1-6 vs spread in last seven tries as road favorite, 0-4-1 vs spread in last five visits to Alabama, which is 2-3 as home dog under Shula, but led by senior QB Croyle, has dominated foes so far this season, Key point here is can Tide defense stop one-dimensional (Leak doesn't run ball much) spread offense? Pick on this game is in my selection box, down below.

UConn pounded Army last two years, 48-21/40-3; total yardage in last year's game was 503-250; Huskies 5-1 in last six tries as road favorite, but they played Georgia Tech, and have national TV date with Syracuse next Friday. Cadets 0-3 but improving under Bobby Ross; they gave 3-0 Iowa State good game last week, losing 28-21. Army is 4-3 as home dog under Ross, but they've been outscored 42-14 in second half of games this season.

Minnesota won its last three games vs Penn State, winning here 20-14 two years ago; totals in last three meetings were 41-34-23. Both sides had dramatic wins last week, coming from behind late. Gophers are 7-14 vs spread on Big 11 road, but 16-11 vs number on grass, 10-4 in last 14 tries as road favorite. JoePa 6-4 as home dog since '00; they're -5 in turnovers last two games. Minnesota ran ball for 300+ yards in all four games, last three of which went over the total.

Texas won last three games vs Missouri by 46-12/35-16/28-20 scores; Longhorns are 16-7 vs spread after a bye, 7-3 vs number in last ten games overall, but covered just one of last four in this series. hard to endorse Missouri team that lost at home to New Mexico, 45-35. Longhorns already have 51-10/60-3 wins this yr, and at win in Columbus; they're 16-7 vs spread after a bye.

USC won last five years vs Arizona State, winning last two in Tempe by 44-38 (ot), 37-17 scores; they squashed ASU 45-7 last year in Coliseum, sacking Walter eight times. Sun Devils are 9-2-1 vs spread in last dozen tries as home dog; they're 3-1 this year, scoring 47 ppg, losing only on miracle finish by LSU. Trojans trailed 13-0 in Eugene last week, 13-10 at half, won 45-13, so they're a juggernaut until otherwise notified.

Cal rolling behind JC transfer QB Ayoob, winning three games vs D-I foes by 39-15-28 points, but Arizona has gotten better, losing just 31-24 vs Purdue, and by FG at Utah. Wildcats were 13-32 passing vs Cal last year; they're 5-10 in last fifteen tries as road dog. Arizona is 21-11 vs spread after a bye, but 3-8 vs spread on Pac 10 road. Will Bears look ahead to next week's game vs UCLA? Bears 19-11 vs spread in last 30 Pac-10 home games, 9-7 in last sixteen as home fave.

Average total in last five Nevada-San Jose games is 80.4, with favorites covering all five, and teams splitting last two at this site. Wolf Pack won last three series games by 28-12-18 points, but they've covered just six of their last 18 conference games. Wolf Pack lost last nine road games SU, they're 4-7 vs spread in last 11 as road favorite. San Jose 10-6 vs spread in their last 16 conference games.

South Florida crushed Big East frontrunner Louisville next week, but still no respect from the line, as Bulls getting 20+ from Miami team that wore Colorado down in early afternoon sun last week, 23-3. Biggest game in USF history, for sure. Hurricanes 13-21 vs spread in last 34 tries as a favorite. Lot of these kids played vs each other in high school, so chip on USF's shoulder, as they got overlooked by big-time Miami.

Purdue beat Notre Dame last two years, 41-16 last year, 23-10 in last visit here; Boilers are 8-4-1 in last thirteen series games, with home side covering seven of last ten. Both teams gained 500+ yards in last year's game, Quinn passed for 460 yards, Purdue sacked him seven times, and passed for 413 yards on just 32 throws (23 catches). Fourth road game in five weeks for Irish; I am little leery of bucking home team in a night game, since the crowd support usually little vocal with extra hours to drink.

Kansas State covered five of last six tries as road dog, eight of last 12 on grass, but they've lost three of last four games vs Oklahoma, even though they're 13-2-2 vs spread in last 17 series games. Sooners are 3-10 vs spread in game before playing rival Texas, are 3-11 vs spread in their last fourteen games overall.

QB Mitchell not expected to play for South Carolina, so Spurrier using new guy vs Auburn team that is 6-3 in last nine tries as home favorite, 9-4 vs spread vs SEC East, but 2-10 vs spread week before its bye. Field was at QB for Tigers last week, not Cox (stomach flu), but Cox expected back here. Gamecock D held Georgia to 17 points in Athens, and Dawgs are better than this Auburn team, would expect Spurrier to get a cover here, but can not invest in backup QB making first start on road.

Top two Memphis QB's both have broken legs, Tigers lost both games vs D-I foes by 4,6 points. Memphis lost in OT at Tulsa last week, despite rushing for 335 yards- they were 9-25 passing. UTEP trailed 10-7 in third quarter last week, before scoring on INT and blocked punt in 4:00 span to break game open. Tigers are 11-4 as home dog since '98, 4-0 since '01