Saturday

[JEFF]

Ytd 28-20, +4.9*

Didn?t get to post at all last weekend as I was on vacation and only bet one game -- the only team I bet on is the same one I?m leading with this weekend?also one that I see several of you guys (gardenweasel, etc) on.

Maryland ?34.5, 3*

Yes, this one looks really easy. But it should be. Terps have beaten EMU last two years by combined 95-6 score and this defense may be better than those two, or at least potentially better. EMU had a total of 270 yards in those two games. And this EMU team is just as bad.

The Emu?s are averaging a pathetic 56 rushing yards on 26 carries, and UMD is allowing only 2.9 per carry. You know what this means ? EMU ain?t gonna hold onto the ball very long. The question is, how many points will they score? I?d say 10 or 13 would be damn near miraculous. 3 or 7 is more realistic. If they score seven, we need 42 out of MD, which has scored 94 in last two games. Hell, EMU lost to Navy by 32.

Just like last year, Terps are hitting their stride after a slow start. Especially now with Perry back (and OL Bryant and WR Suter). Simply, I could easily see MD covering at halftime. Don?t let the big wood scare you, either. E. Mich is 1-5 ATS as dog of 31 or more.

 

[JEFF]

Toledo +4, 4*
Hate to go against a bunch of quality handicappers here, but I like this Toledo team a lot. Simply put, I think they are decisively the better team here, so I?mnot gonna let the letdown factor bother me.

Let?s not forget that barring a few late turnovers, Toledo wins that first game at UNLV and is 4-0, probably going into the Carrier Dome as a fave. Loved the QB Gradkowski after watching him in that game, and now the secret is out after he completed 20 of 22 passes in the fourth quarter to comeback and beat Pitt.

He has 10 TDs and just one int, and is completing almost 70 percent of his passes. That?s not good news for a piss poor Syracuse defensive backfield. Syracuse can and will run the ball, and Reyes is a handful. But Toledo has shown it can defend the run. The difference between these teams is Toledo is more well-rounded. They also have three quality backs of their own.
Cuse QB Anderson is a crapshoot and has the tendency to follow a good game with a terrible one.

Both teams have been excellent in the TO margin, so it is up in the air what will happen as far as that?s concerned. But Cuse has beaten two bad teams in UCF and UNC, while Toledo has won at Marshall and at home against Pitt. Cuse is 5-0vs. the MAC, but I think they take an L here.

 

[JEFF]

Vanderbilt +7.5, 1*

Yes, I know its Vanderbilt.

But someone tell me how a team that is scoring 11.5 points a game, has 3 offensive TDs in four games, is 0-2 on the road, and has a very inconsistent true freshman at QB is giving 7.5 on the road to any SEC team? Is GT living off the rep of almost beating FSU at FSU?




Bottom line -- Vandy easily could win this game. GT offense is pathetic. They run for 89 yards on 33 carries per game, and are truning it over 3.5 times on the road. Granted, BYU and FSU were tougher tests. But still, they have no good backs, have a wild 18 year old at QB, and are facing a team that would love to get a major conference win.

Vandy could have beaten TCU but shot itself in the foot. Commodores are gaining a respectable 375 ypg, compared to 257 for GT. Getting more than a TD here is too good to pass up.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL this weekend!

HORNS

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

GL Jeff,

Maryland should win easily!

 

[AR182]

jeff,

i like vandy also & am waiting to see if line moves upward.


good luck this weekend

 

[gardenweasel]

jeff....

jeff....

as usual,you are digging a game out that i totally ignored....vandy may be a very live dog getting over a td...i will probably take a small shot with it now that you brought it to light....

one thing that has me wondering...the maryland game seems to have become a popular play on several boards i peruse.....yet,the line has dipped to 34 in many places....am i looking at this is a vacuum?....just a few gambling discussion forums....and i just noticed that phil steele just put it out as a play on his sheet....

anybody have any ideas on the line move?....i really think i am getting paranoid....

good stuff,jeff...i hope we aren`t getting duped with the turtles....

 

[ajoytoy]

gl Jeff!

toy

 

[JEFF]

SU vs. Toledo game preview
SU must defuse nex-generation Rockets

September 26, 2003

By Dave Rahme
Staff writer

The Syracuse University football team is 2-1 for the first time since 1999. It opened that season with a 35-12 victory at Toledo, a game in which redshirt freshman Troy Nunes made his first career start and the SU defense held the Rockets to 224 yards of offense, forcing 11 punts. Starting for the Orangemen on defense that Thursday night more than four years ago were three players who would go on to be selected in the first round of the NFL draft - end Dwight Freeney, linebacker Keith Bulluck and cornerback Will Allen - and two others who would be drafted within the first four rounds - tackle Eric Downing and linebacker Morlon Greenwood.

A different SU defense will take the field against Toledo (3-1) in the rematch Saturday in the Carrier Dome. This one, still in a state of transition, allows 444 yards and 30.3 points per game. It played by far its best game of the season last week against a very good Central Florida offense, but to suggest a corner was turned in the process is preposterous. UCF gained 376 yards and 23 first downs, production that resulted in only 14 points because of five turnovers.




The Orangemen will face a far different Toledo team than they met four years ago, too. This one, molded by second-year coach and native son Tom Amstutz, averages 427 yards and 31.5 points a game by running a wide-open, no-huddle offense that will remind SU fans of Brigham Young. Its defense is the one employed by Virginia Tech, Pitt and Temple ? the eight-man front that dares a team to try to run through it or pass over it. The combination stunned No. 9 Pittsburgh last week in Toledo, a week after it stung Marshall on the road ? the same Marshall team that then defeated No. 6 Kansas State on the road. Those impressive victories have the Rockets on the fringe of the top-25 as they prepare to visit the Dome for the first time. Anyone who thinks SU will have an easy time hasn't been paying attention.

Here are five keys for Syracuse:



Between the tackles. The Orangemen have seen Toledo's style of defense many times over the past decade and have figured out the key to beating it. It's a simple formula: Establish the inside run, forcing the inside defenders to play honest; then attack the perimeters; then pass over it. Everything hinges on the ability to run effectively between the tackles. Above all, stick to the plan even if a few early runs get stuffed. SU must pound away at the heart of the eight-man front.



Protect the ball. SU committed zero turnovers in its two victories and two in its lone defeat. Toledo is an incredible plus-8 in turnover margin (12 forced, four committed). SU is an impressive plus-6 (8-2). Those ratios are the key reasons the teams are 5-2 combined while fielding defenses that allow 393 and 444 yards a game, respectively. SU must win the turnover battle if it hopes to knock off the Rockets.



Special occasion. SU's normally superb special teams have been up and down so far, as the Orangemen have had a punt blocked and have allowed a few long returns. Toledo has been even more inconsistent in this area, as it has blocked a punt and returned one for a TD but also has had a punt and field-goal attempt blocked and is 1-for-4 on field goals. SU must make at least one big play while not yielding any.



Under control. Toledo's no-huddle offense is designed to create favorable individual matchups by getting the team lined up and ready to play before the defense can make adjustments. SU saw it last season vs. BYU and often looked confused, as players remained focused on the sideline as the Cougars prepared to snap the ball. SU coaches must do a better job of getting the defenders they want onto the field between plays and getting them lined up and ready to play.



Play to the finish. Toledo outscored Marshall and Pitt 21-0 in the fourth quarter. SU has outscored foes 27-3 in the fourth quarter this season. SU must keep its offense on the field from start to finish, controlling the ball and the clock and wearing down the Rockets.

 

[JEFF]

Downgrading Vandy to 1* from 3 because of all the injuries. Might just play these three, which is tough for me, but I just don't see many great opportunities.

 

[pt1gard]

go get 'em Jeff

go get 'em Jeff

I know U struggeld with that Toledo game, researching it, most on Cuse, I could see both ways ...

terps should roll, over 20 rd faves 5-0 ats

I took vandy also

take care
gregg

 

[JEFF]

thanks gregg

thanks gregg

adding

UMD over 53, 2*
PSU +3, 3*

 

[JEFF]

CSU Utah over 52, 2*