Saturday

[Toledo Prophet]

Another fun Saturday of hoops is ahead of us. One early play so far:

Marq/ND Over 148. Love this high powered ND attack. The winner in Irish games this year has averaged percentage points below 83 ppg. That figure has been trending upward as in the last 7 games, the winner has totaled 88.8 pps, with three games hitting 90 or more and a fourth hitting 89. All those 7 hit the Over. What does all this mean? Well, expect today's winner to be in the mid-80s. I think Marquette will bounce back a bit after Monday's debacle and keep pace with the Irish making it a close game. I expect a shootout in this one.

 

[Mr. Poon]

I'm on this play too. They've fallen off the pace, but as shown by the start, these guys can score in spurts.

GL man.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Adding:

USC +5.5 over Washington State.

Ok, apparently I did not learn a thing when these teams played each other last month, a Wassau strangulation of the Trojans in LA. That game took place over four weeks ago, and a lot has happened since then, much of it not good for the Cougars. WSU has lost five of its last eight games and has not covered a game in over three weeks. The Pac 10 slate is revealing Wassau as a limited team, one thats very beatable if you play patient and lock down the three-point defense. USC has a boat load of talent, and they are starting to come together more and more each week. I expect them to be a main story line in the season's closing weeks. The Trojans are 6-1 SU, ATS in their last seven, all league contests.

Here are some other factoids: Since taking over at USC, Tim Floys and the Trojans are 20-10 ATS as road dogs. 15-7 in the other guys building. They've covered 7 of their 10 games as a Pac 10 road dog, and sport a 16-8 ATS number overall in all league road games during the Floyd era.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

TP,

First off, nice job on the Marquette over.

Secondly, I like SC a lot today too. They've went from +5' to +4' at my book. I think we're starting to see that Wazzu is not as good as many people (myself included) may have thought earlier in the season. Not so sure SC isn't every bit as good as them? :shrug:

Only thing that scares me a bit is that WSU has lost 3 straight, so I just don't see them losing today. Containing Low and Weaver will be the key for SC IMO. If you can put the clamps down on those two guys, Wazzu just isn't all that great.

Good luck!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Mr. P......glad you were on that ND/Marq over as well.....ended up being pretty easy. :00hour

Glen......USC is gonna have to hustle this second half to get this one for us.......wassau just has usc's number, but there's still plenty of time left.

Adding:

Seton Hall +6.5 over Villanova.......two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions. Despite Wednesday's beatdown at the hands of the Irish, the Hall are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games, all conference games. Nova, meanwhile, has only covered once in 2008, are 1-11 ATS in their last dozen and have a measly 1-8 ATS record in conference play. Nova has failed to cover as a favorite againt on the road to Cincy, Depaul and Rutgers and at home against Depaul, Pitt, Syracuse and Notre Dame. They were only 2-5 SU in those aforementioned games. The Hall, meanwhile, have covered as dogs at home versis Lousville and on the road against Marquette, Providence and Georgetown.

On resume alone, I'll take the solid, proven underdog Seton Hall against the money burning favorite Villanova. The way the Cats have played lately, they need to prove to me they can win against a good Big East team, let alone cover as a favorite.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Three plays for tonight:

Purdue +10 over Wisco......staying with these Boilers.......to channel my inner tout, we're 6-0-1 on posted plays with Purdue this year......back in reality, there's no reason to stop playing Purdue. They're 19-6 ATS in their last 25 league games, 8-2 this year. 24-12 ATS overall since the middle of last January. Already this season, they've covered as double digit road dogs in Michigan St and Clemson, losing both games by 3, and beat Louisville on a nuetral floor. Playing at Wisco is tough, but they're tested coming in and I expect them to make this a ball game to the very end. Badgers are just 4-8-1 in their last 13 big ten homes games.

Baylor +17 over KU........very confortable taking Baylor as an underdog against anyone. They're 20-10 in their last 30 conference games, but have dropped 3 in a row. With a 9-3 ATS mark catching points, I'll take a flier on the Bears tonight back in their familar underdog role.

NCState +8.5 over Maryland.....all these middle class ACC games seem to go down to the wire and favor the underdog. Very big February bubble game as its hard to see next month's bracket with both these teams on the board. Just a gut feel that this one will go down to the wire as I dont trust the Terps now that they're expected to win big again.

Good luck tonight!!!