liking way too many games today.
anyone remember seeing a team getting 29 one week and laying 30 the next (air force)? does that mean boise would be laying 60 if they played new mexico?
indiana (+9) 1 unit. roberson wasn't terrible in his first start last week at iowa - 16 of 24 for 197 yards, one td, no picks. sure, the hoosiers are still terrible, but he may inject some life into the offense. i gotta take this many point from a road team that's lost 5 straight games.
indiana/northwestern over (61.5) 2 units. probably the better play in this game. indiana's defense is still awful.
syr/lou under (44) 2 units. louisville's defense has been very good, but their offense is horrible. the under in louisville games this year is 6-0-1. in fact, the most points scored in a louisville game this year is 41. only way this goes over is OT (a syracuse special this year).
baylor (+14) 2 units. way too much love for ok st. they've been thriving on turnovers. their 15 INTs are tied for the most in the country. but griffin has been great in that department, only throwing two INTs this season. ok st is 103rd in the country in total defense. i see this game being one of those last-team-with-the-ball-wins kind of games. but the best play on this game might be...
baylor/ok st over (81.5) 3 units. this matches the biggest total i've played this year, with the over in the ok st/ku game 3 weeks ago. seriously, which defense has a chance at stopping the other team in this game? the over is 5-0 in baylor games this season.
illinois (+5) 2 units. the road team has covered 3 straight and 7 of 8 in this series. illinois has covered 4 straight trips to happy valley, including a 20-point win last year. i see this being a smashmouth, old school big 10 matchup. something like 13-10 final. biggest question mark for me is does illinois have anything left in the tank after the last 2 weeks. if they show up, this will be a slugfest.
navy (+21.5) 1 unit. navy has covered at least 5 straight trips to south bend, and the road team has covered 14 of the last 16 in this matchup. while nd may have beaten air force by 23, they hardly dominated the game statistically. air force had more first downs, more total yards, and they ran the ball 60 times for 363 yards. oh, and they were 5/5 on 4th down. doesn't sound like nd has exactly figured out how to stop the option. notre dame is 119th in the country in turnover margin. if they give navy a short field a few times, the midshipmen could even win this game.
georgia tech (+3.5) 3 units. how is this line dropping? only a crazy person could play georgia tech in this game, right? it makes no sense for this line to drop. and as good as clemson's been, it's almost impossible to bet against them. so that's what i gotta do. i've learned over the years that the harder it is to bet a team, the better their chances of covering.
new mexico st (+15.5) 2 units. the aggies have actually covered 4 straight games. nevada is coming off a close win over fresno and next week they play hawaii, the only team that beat them last year. i expect nm st to keep this close.
ohio st (+7.5) 1 unit. wisconsin didn't play a road game until 10/22, and it cost them. they have to bounce back from that tough loss and play the buckeyes, who are coming off a bye week. i look for ohio st to just pound the ball all game and keep this close.
arizona (+4) 3 units. wow, the line drop in this one. the wildcats have been good at washington. you have to go back to the last century to find the last time washington beat arizona by more than 3 at home. getting rid of stoops was addition by subtraction.
like i said, way too many games.
anyone remember seeing a team getting 29 one week and laying 30 the next (air force)? does that mean boise would be laying 60 if they played new mexico?
indiana (+9) 1 unit. roberson wasn't terrible in his first start last week at iowa - 16 of 24 for 197 yards, one td, no picks. sure, the hoosiers are still terrible, but he may inject some life into the offense. i gotta take this many point from a road team that's lost 5 straight games.
indiana/northwestern over (61.5) 2 units. probably the better play in this game. indiana's defense is still awful.
syr/lou under (44) 2 units. louisville's defense has been very good, but their offense is horrible. the under in louisville games this year is 6-0-1. in fact, the most points scored in a louisville game this year is 41. only way this goes over is OT (a syracuse special this year).
baylor (+14) 2 units. way too much love for ok st. they've been thriving on turnovers. their 15 INTs are tied for the most in the country. but griffin has been great in that department, only throwing two INTs this season. ok st is 103rd in the country in total defense. i see this game being one of those last-team-with-the-ball-wins kind of games. but the best play on this game might be...
baylor/ok st over (81.5) 3 units. this matches the biggest total i've played this year, with the over in the ok st/ku game 3 weeks ago. seriously, which defense has a chance at stopping the other team in this game? the over is 5-0 in baylor games this season.
illinois (+5) 2 units. the road team has covered 3 straight and 7 of 8 in this series. illinois has covered 4 straight trips to happy valley, including a 20-point win last year. i see this being a smashmouth, old school big 10 matchup. something like 13-10 final. biggest question mark for me is does illinois have anything left in the tank after the last 2 weeks. if they show up, this will be a slugfest.
navy (+21.5) 1 unit. navy has covered at least 5 straight trips to south bend, and the road team has covered 14 of the last 16 in this matchup. while nd may have beaten air force by 23, they hardly dominated the game statistically. air force had more first downs, more total yards, and they ran the ball 60 times for 363 yards. oh, and they were 5/5 on 4th down. doesn't sound like nd has exactly figured out how to stop the option. notre dame is 119th in the country in turnover margin. if they give navy a short field a few times, the midshipmen could even win this game.
georgia tech (+3.5) 3 units. how is this line dropping? only a crazy person could play georgia tech in this game, right? it makes no sense for this line to drop. and as good as clemson's been, it's almost impossible to bet against them. so that's what i gotta do. i've learned over the years that the harder it is to bet a team, the better their chances of covering.
new mexico st (+15.5) 2 units. the aggies have actually covered 4 straight games. nevada is coming off a close win over fresno and next week they play hawaii, the only team that beat them last year. i expect nm st to keep this close.
ohio st (+7.5) 1 unit. wisconsin didn't play a road game until 10/22, and it cost them. they have to bounce back from that tough loss and play the buckeyes, who are coming off a bye week. i look for ohio st to just pound the ball all game and keep this close.
arizona (+4) 3 units. wow, the line drop in this one. the wildcats have been good at washington. you have to go back to the last century to find the last time washington beat arizona by more than 3 at home. getting rid of stoops was addition by subtraction.
like i said, way too many games.
