LSU (-3.5) 2 units. i haven't seen anything from texas a&m to indicate that they're ready to beat the best teams in the sec. their defense is porous enough that they make lsu's offense look compentent. and they're probably still tired from chasing patton all over the field last saturday. biggest concern for me is lsu's schedule. florida and sc the last two weeks, a&m, then 'bama after a bye.
minnesota (+15.5) 2 units. let me get this straight. minnesota's qb today is a freshman making his first start? AND THE LINE DROPS 2-3 POINTS??? alright, i'll bite. scary thing is, i'm thinking about taking a shot on the money line. big look-ahead game for wisconsin. remember when michigan st beat them with that hail mary last year? even after getting revenge in the big ten championship game, i'll bet the badgers are thinking more about the spartans than they are about the gophers.
cal (+2.5) 2 units. the bears are playing a little better now, winning and covering their last 2. stanford is 0-2 on the road this year, and you don't have to look past nunes' numbers to know why.
home 56% 8 yds/att 8 TDs 3 INTs
road 48% 4.8 yds/att 0 TDs 3 INTs
mich/mich st under (43) 2 units. until maxwell learns to handle pressure, michigan st will struggle to score. but the spartans have done a great job against robinson. here's his numbers in this rivalry:
2009 no passes, 3 runs for -9 yards
2010 17 of 29 for 215 yards 1 TD 3 INTs 21 carries for 86 yards
2011 9 of 24 for 123 yards 1 TD 1 INT 18 carries for 42 yards
if the qbs can avoid giving the other team too many short fields (and that's a big if), i just don't see all that much scoring today.
south carolina (+3.5) 1 unit. the cocks have covered 6 straight games, and the last 3 versus florida. only one unit though, because this is a tough spot for them, coming off games against georgia and at LSU. if they can bounce back from the tough loss at LSU and stuff florida's running game, i haven't seen anything out of driskel to make me think he can beat them with his arm.
south florida (+6) 2 units. very strange line drop. but the cardinals have been playing with fire lately. they really struggled to put away a weak pitt team. they barely beat a very weak southern miss team. they beat FIU by a td. they almost blew a huge lead at home against unc. at some point, this will come back to bite them in the ass. and if they were having trouble focusing before, well their next game is friday night against cincinnati. they might be overlooking the bulls today.
indiana/navy over (61.5) 3 units. this feels like the indiana/nw game a few weeks ago. maybe this over is just too obvious. but indiana's offense is rolling now. and navy's offense is finally moving with keenan reynolds (3 TD passes last week!). i don't see a lot of defensive stops in this game.
wku (-3.5) 4 units. y'all knew this was coming. i've been playing the hilltoppers every game, and they just keep covering. 15 straight games now. and over their 14 games, their only SU losses were to LSU and alabama. taggart has built himself a very solid football team. now they get UL monroe, who came out of nowhere to shock the football world with a win at arkansas, and close losses against auburn and baylor. but those games suddenly don't look quite as impressive. i look for wku to grind out yet another win. the hilltoppers are going bowling this year!
wku/monroe under (52.5) 2 units. probably the biggest game in the sunbelt this year. the defenses will step up.
toledo (+5.5) 1 unit. hard to trust toledo's defense, but the rockets should be fired up, hosting cincinnati for the first time since 1993.
unc (-10.5) 1 unit. you'd think i would have learned my lesson last week, laying points on the road with this team. you'd be wrong. this line just seems unnecessarily high, as duke has been solid most of the year. but i have a feeling that complete collapse against VT last week is going to linger with this team like a nasty fart. yup.
kansas st (+2.5) 4 units. holy shit, do i love the wildcats today. wvu was completely exposed last week. now, i don't think the k st defense will be that good against wvu, but they won't have to be. k st will grind out one long td drive after another. their defense will only need a few stops.
penn st (+2.5) 2 units. don't look now, but psu has covered every game since that opening debacle against ohio. they should beat the weakest iowa team we've seen in a while.
minnesota (+15.5) 2 units. let me get this straight. minnesota's qb today is a freshman making his first start? AND THE LINE DROPS 2-3 POINTS??? alright, i'll bite. scary thing is, i'm thinking about taking a shot on the money line. big look-ahead game for wisconsin. remember when michigan st beat them with that hail mary last year? even after getting revenge in the big ten championship game, i'll bet the badgers are thinking more about the spartans than they are about the gophers.
cal (+2.5) 2 units. the bears are playing a little better now, winning and covering their last 2. stanford is 0-2 on the road this year, and you don't have to look past nunes' numbers to know why.
home 56% 8 yds/att 8 TDs 3 INTs
road 48% 4.8 yds/att 0 TDs 3 INTs
mich/mich st under (43) 2 units. until maxwell learns to handle pressure, michigan st will struggle to score. but the spartans have done a great job against robinson. here's his numbers in this rivalry:
2009 no passes, 3 runs for -9 yards
2010 17 of 29 for 215 yards 1 TD 3 INTs 21 carries for 86 yards
2011 9 of 24 for 123 yards 1 TD 1 INT 18 carries for 42 yards
if the qbs can avoid giving the other team too many short fields (and that's a big if), i just don't see all that much scoring today.
south carolina (+3.5) 1 unit. the cocks have covered 6 straight games, and the last 3 versus florida. only one unit though, because this is a tough spot for them, coming off games against georgia and at LSU. if they can bounce back from the tough loss at LSU and stuff florida's running game, i haven't seen anything out of driskel to make me think he can beat them with his arm.
south florida (+6) 2 units. very strange line drop. but the cardinals have been playing with fire lately. they really struggled to put away a weak pitt team. they barely beat a very weak southern miss team. they beat FIU by a td. they almost blew a huge lead at home against unc. at some point, this will come back to bite them in the ass. and if they were having trouble focusing before, well their next game is friday night against cincinnati. they might be overlooking the bulls today.
indiana/navy over (61.5) 3 units. this feels like the indiana/nw game a few weeks ago. maybe this over is just too obvious. but indiana's offense is rolling now. and navy's offense is finally moving with keenan reynolds (3 TD passes last week!). i don't see a lot of defensive stops in this game.
wku (-3.5) 4 units. y'all knew this was coming. i've been playing the hilltoppers every game, and they just keep covering. 15 straight games now. and over their 14 games, their only SU losses were to LSU and alabama. taggart has built himself a very solid football team. now they get UL monroe, who came out of nowhere to shock the football world with a win at arkansas, and close losses against auburn and baylor. but those games suddenly don't look quite as impressive. i look for wku to grind out yet another win. the hilltoppers are going bowling this year!
wku/monroe under (52.5) 2 units. probably the biggest game in the sunbelt this year. the defenses will step up.
toledo (+5.5) 1 unit. hard to trust toledo's defense, but the rockets should be fired up, hosting cincinnati for the first time since 1993.
unc (-10.5) 1 unit. you'd think i would have learned my lesson last week, laying points on the road with this team. you'd be wrong. this line just seems unnecessarily high, as duke has been solid most of the year. but i have a feeling that complete collapse against VT last week is going to linger with this team like a nasty fart. yup.
kansas st (+2.5) 4 units. holy shit, do i love the wildcats today. wvu was completely exposed last week. now, i don't think the k st defense will be that good against wvu, but they won't have to be. k st will grind out one long td drive after another. their defense will only need a few stops.
penn st (+2.5) 2 units. don't look now, but psu has covered every game since that opening debacle against ohio. they should beat the weakest iowa team we've seen in a while.
