Rockets-Jazz
The Rockets are a team to watch in the western conference this season, with perhaps the best guard in the game and a solid front court. But if they want to make the big stride to becoming an elite team, they need to improve on their 2012 road record of 16-25. Tonight is a game where they can assert their dominance, and get off to their best season start in five years. The Rockets start a three game road trip tonight, and teams playing as a road favorite on the first game of a three game road trip seem to know the importance of starting hot, going 70-44-2 ATS (61.4%) over the last five seasons and 35-20-1 ATS (63.6%) when they have the same rest as their opponent.
The Jazz are coming off two hard-fought games, where they lost both by one possession. This can certainly weigh on the psyche of players, especially on a team that features many young players. Teams playing as a home dog coming off two one possession losses are 12-22 ATS (35.3%) over the last five seasons when their opponent is coming off a home win. Mix into this the early season travel that the Jazz have faced, coming off two losses as a dog, first at home and then on the road, now playing as a dog against a team coming off a home win, these teams are 13-21 ATS (38.2%) over the last four seasons.
The Jazz have lost their last three meetings to the Rockets by an average of twenty points. In their first two games this season, the Jazz have 43 turnovers, surrendering a league worst 24.5 fastbreak points to their opponents. This is problematic against a team that averaged the second most fastbreak points per game last season. The Jazz backcourt without Trey Burke may be the worst in the league, and through two games their backcourt has posted the worst difference in efficiency rating in the league. Position for position, the Rockets are superior, and while that does not always mean they will win, given the drive of these teams tonight, it highly favors the Rockets. Although Kanter has been a pleasant surprise for the Jazz, Derrick Favors has struggled as a starter, and Howard and Asik should dominate in the paint tonight. Last season when the Rockets scored 45 or less points in the paint, they outscored their opponents in the paint in their next game 66.7% of the time. They beat the Jazz in the paint in three out of their four meetings last season. Last season when the Rockets beat opponents in the paint, they were 36-17-1 ATS (67.9%) and the Jazz were 14-27 ATS (34.1%) when they lost this battle. The Rockets should be able to win the points in the paint battle and have more fast break points, and road favorites that win these two categories are 321-159-7 ATS (66.9%) over the last five seasons.
Losing on the road is deflating, while winning at home boosts team spirits. Rest patterns amplify emotion, and when two teams meet that are playing on no rest, and one is coming off a home win while the other is coming off a road loss, the favorite in the match-up is 44-27 ATS (62.0%) since the 2005 season. These teams will both be a little tired tonight, playing in their first game of the season on no rest, but they enter the game with a very different mindset. One is headed up, while the other is just struggling to survive. Teams playing as a road favorite coming off a home win where they covered the spread are 27-11 ATS (71.1%) since the 2005 season when their opponent is coming off a road loss and they are both playing on no rest.
Rockets -6 (-109)
