Saturday

[Smitty]

Military Bowl

Virginia tech (ML) 4 units to win 5. either this is the worst line on the board, or somebody knows the hokies are ready for a big game today. obviously I'm betting it's the latter. tech hit rock bottom in that wake forest game. they bounced back against Virginia on the strength of the ground game, rushing for 198 yards on 40 carries. that was against a cavs defense that allowed 121 yards/game and 3.4 yards/carry on the season. Cincinnati allowed 185 and 4.8 this year. the hokies must run the ball to win this game. but it's the tech defense that will be the difference today. the hokies led the nation, allowing opponents to convert on 3rd down 27.3% of the time. I'm hoping this will be a boring game to watch... the hokies getting some 3-and-outs followed by grinding out a few long drives.

 

[Smitty]

Sun Bowl

Sun Bowl

Arizona st (-7.5) 2 units. meaningless trend of the day: this bowl season has seen 3 favs of greater than 4 points. all 3 have covered. ok, now that that is out of the way, I don't love this game. but there is a pretty large talent gap between these teams. and, despite another solid year, I don't feel like duke is as good as they were last year. boone in particular... from what I've seen, he's been a lot more inconsistent. obviously motivation is always a big factor in these pre-1/1 games, but if the sun devils show up today, I think they're going to roll to an easy win.

 

[Smitty]

Independence Bowl

Independence Bowl

Miami (-3.5) 1 unit. hard to love this game. for me, the deciding factor was south carolina's defense, which has been terrible this year. in particular, their run defense, which gave up 214 yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. they're going to get a steady diet of duke johnson today, and I don't see how they can slow him down.

 

[Smitty]

Pinstripe Bowl

Pinstripe Bowl

bc (-3) 3 units. this game should be played in freezing cold temps, and/or in steady precipitation of some sort. but, inexplicably, it's going to be played in warmer weather than the sun bowl. wtf? just some real old school football here. 2 teams that rely heavily on running the ball and stopping the run. obviously there is a big motivational edge for the nittany lions, who began the season ineligible for a bowl game. but I don't think that's going to be enough today. while these teams are both in the top 4 in rushing yards allowed per game, bc has had success on the ground offensively, racking up 252 yards/ game and 5.1 yards/carry. psu only manages 104 & 2.6. I just don't see psu moving the ball with any consistency. on the other side of the ball, tyler murphy is the most dynamic player in this game. he will be the difference because of his ability to throw or take off and run when the play breaks down.

if you like psu in this game, a 1st half bet is probably the best play. no doubt they're going to be fired up to start this game. I just don't think that's going to be enough for 60 minutes.

 

[#cruncher]

Some nice write-ups Smitty; thank you, I hope they pan out, at least you've made me feel better.

 

[Smitty]

Holiday Bowl

Holiday Bowl

Nebraska (+7) 1 unit.
Nebraska (ML) 1 unit to win 2.5. losing pelini will be like losing a weight off the back of the huskers' players. I think they'll come out playing like a team with nothing to lose and Abdullah is going to challenge the run defense of the trojans. hell, the huskers are playing for god, per their interim coach...
"I am basically telling them four things -- honor God with your effort. Honor your teammates with your effort. Honor Coach Bo (Pelini) with your loyalty and love and support, along with your effort." Cotton said. "And let's reveal our character one last time in the Holiday Bowl."
how can you bet against a team playing for god?

under (63) 1 unit. pretty much just going against the grain with this pick. the whole world is on the over, and the total has barely moved.

 

[Smitty]

Some nice write-ups Smitty; thank you, I hope they pan out, at least you've made me feel better.

thank you, sir. I certainly hope they pan out, too.