busiest gambling day of the year... college football and the breeders cup.
feels like i've been pretty bad on the noon games, but maybe an 11:30 game will be ok.
notre dame (-7) 1 unit. maybe the line is inflated because it's nd, but -7 is practically begging for navy money.
navy/nd over (63.5) 3 units. very difficult to see either team stopping the other. these teams have a history of putting up a lot of points. total points the last 5 matchups... 65, 88, 72, 60, 70.
byu (-7.5) 3 units. byu is by far the better team here. they are 5-0 ATS away from home. cincinnati has been a home dog twice this year. they were outscored by a combined 85-36.
air force (ML) 4 units to win 4.4. army at home this year... they beat rice and lafayette and lost to north texas. i'm a little surprised they're favored. army hasn't scored a td against af since 2013. combined score the last two years is 43-9.
syracuse (+27) 2 units. this lines looks like they want clemson money. i gotta figure clemson is already looking ahead to the acc championship game. syracuse has only lost to clemson by 10 the last two years. same result this year, but i think it's going to be a lot higher-scoring. let's call it... 48-38. so, yeah, i'll probably play the over, too.
illinois (+7) 3 units
illinois (ML) 2 unit to win 5.4. you'd better believe i'm going to continue wagering against sparty. what have they done that they should be favored by a td on the road? they have lost both their conference road games (as a favorite). now they're riding a 6-game losing streak and coming off a loss to big brother. they need to win out just to be bowl-eligible, and they still have a game left against ohio st. i have to believe they are giving up on the season at this point. they'll hit rock bottom with a loss today (i mean, they can't lose at home next week to rutgers, can they?).
nc st (+6) 3 units
nc st (ML) 2 units to win 4.5. yeah, nc st's biggest win this year was in a monsoon against a bad nd team. but i feel like they are going to catch an unfocused fl st team today, coming off their tough loss to clemson. the difference will be nc st's run defense. they are 17th in the country, only allowing 113 yards/game on 3/24 yards/carry. statistically, that's nearly even to louisville, who held cook to 54 yards. if they can slow him down and make francois throw to beat them, i love their chance of pulling out a win.
pittsburgh (ML) 2 units to win 3.4. since pitt joined the acc in 2013, the road team has won all 3 games between these teams. miami has dropped 4 straight.
fau (ML) 2 units to win 3.3. why the hell not bet against rice winning a game? fau has held a lead in the 4th quarter in both of their conference road games.
northwestern (+6) 3 units
northwestern (ML) 2 units to win 3.9. yeah, i'm stubborn, but i still don't think this wisconsin team is all that good. the wildcats are playing good ball and definitely have a legit shot to win this game. fwiw, nw has beaten wisconsin as a dog in each of the last 2 years.
feels like i've been pretty bad on the noon games, but maybe an 11:30 game will be ok.
notre dame (-7) 1 unit. maybe the line is inflated because it's nd, but -7 is practically begging for navy money.
navy/nd over (63.5) 3 units. very difficult to see either team stopping the other. these teams have a history of putting up a lot of points. total points the last 5 matchups... 65, 88, 72, 60, 70.
byu (-7.5) 3 units. byu is by far the better team here. they are 5-0 ATS away from home. cincinnati has been a home dog twice this year. they were outscored by a combined 85-36.
air force (ML) 4 units to win 4.4. army at home this year... they beat rice and lafayette and lost to north texas. i'm a little surprised they're favored. army hasn't scored a td against af since 2013. combined score the last two years is 43-9.
syracuse (+27) 2 units. this lines looks like they want clemson money. i gotta figure clemson is already looking ahead to the acc championship game. syracuse has only lost to clemson by 10 the last two years. same result this year, but i think it's going to be a lot higher-scoring. let's call it... 48-38. so, yeah, i'll probably play the over, too.
illinois (+7) 3 units
illinois (ML) 2 unit to win 5.4. you'd better believe i'm going to continue wagering against sparty. what have they done that they should be favored by a td on the road? they have lost both their conference road games (as a favorite). now they're riding a 6-game losing streak and coming off a loss to big brother. they need to win out just to be bowl-eligible, and they still have a game left against ohio st. i have to believe they are giving up on the season at this point. they'll hit rock bottom with a loss today (i mean, they can't lose at home next week to rutgers, can they?).
nc st (+6) 3 units
nc st (ML) 2 units to win 4.5. yeah, nc st's biggest win this year was in a monsoon against a bad nd team. but i feel like they are going to catch an unfocused fl st team today, coming off their tough loss to clemson. the difference will be nc st's run defense. they are 17th in the country, only allowing 113 yards/game on 3/24 yards/carry. statistically, that's nearly even to louisville, who held cook to 54 yards. if they can slow him down and make francois throw to beat them, i love their chance of pulling out a win.
pittsburgh (ML) 2 units to win 3.4. since pitt joined the acc in 2013, the road team has won all 3 games between these teams. miami has dropped 4 straight.
fau (ML) 2 units to win 3.3. why the hell not bet against rice winning a game? fau has held a lead in the 4th quarter in both of their conference road games.
northwestern (+6) 3 units
northwestern (ML) 2 units to win 3.9. yeah, i'm stubborn, but i still don't think this wisconsin team is all that good. the wildcats are playing good ball and definitely have a legit shot to win this game. fwiw, nw has beaten wisconsin as a dog in each of the last 2 years.
