indy (ML) 4 units to win 4.4. both games between these two were won by the road team by a fg. both teams played pretty weak schedules, only facing 5 playoff teams each. and that includes the two games against each other. but i'd say indy actually improved as the season went on, which makes sense as andrew luck was returning from injury. the colts did a great job shutting down hopkins in the second matchup, as he only had 4 catches for 36 yards after torching the colts in the first game for 10 catches and 169 yards.
i thought this was interesting... the colts gave up the fewest sacks in the league this year (18). but 6 of those were against houston. on the other side of the ball, houston gave up the most sacks in the league (62), and indy got him 12 times in 2 games. that looks like a decent edge for indy, but it gets better. luck had 109 dropbacks in the 2 games. so houston sacked him 5.5% of his dropbacks. watson had 92 dropbacks. indy sacked him on 13% of his dropbacks. and is watson going to be any more decisive with his reads in his first playoff game? feels like he's going to go down a lot today.
dallas (-2.5) 5 units. i really hate that i'm playing dak prescott in a playoff game. that is not a comfortable feeling. but there are two reasons i'm playing dallas hard. the first is kinda meaningless, but seattle sure is a trendy pick. the real reason? seattle's run defense is very bad. now, i'm counting on jason garrett and scott linehan to figure this out. but it doesn't take a genius to see the numbers. at first glance, hey, they don't look too bad. they give up 113 yards/game, which is 13th in the league. nothing wrong with that. BUT they give up 4.9 yards/carry, which is 30th in the league. last i checked, dallas likes to run the ball. in the first matchup, elliott had 127 yards on only 16 carries. that's 7.9 yards/carry. and his long was 26 yards, so it's not like he popped one huge run to distort the stats. he's probably going to have to have 25-30 carries today. and it's sad that i can't rely on an nfl coaching staff to figure that out. but, c'mon, even these guys can see that they need to feed elliott tonight, right?
in the first matchup, dallas outgained seattle by a few yards, but had 3 turnovers vs none for seattle. the turnovers should even out today in dallas.
over (43.5) 3 units. this is nuts. but the total is practically screaming for under money. the total in the first matchup was 40, and the score was 24-13. so why is this total so high?
i thought this was interesting... the colts gave up the fewest sacks in the league this year (18). but 6 of those were against houston. on the other side of the ball, houston gave up the most sacks in the league (62), and indy got him 12 times in 2 games. that looks like a decent edge for indy, but it gets better. luck had 109 dropbacks in the 2 games. so houston sacked him 5.5% of his dropbacks. watson had 92 dropbacks. indy sacked him on 13% of his dropbacks. and is watson going to be any more decisive with his reads in his first playoff game? feels like he's going to go down a lot today.
dallas (-2.5) 5 units. i really hate that i'm playing dak prescott in a playoff game. that is not a comfortable feeling. but there are two reasons i'm playing dallas hard. the first is kinda meaningless, but seattle sure is a trendy pick. the real reason? seattle's run defense is very bad. now, i'm counting on jason garrett and scott linehan to figure this out. but it doesn't take a genius to see the numbers. at first glance, hey, they don't look too bad. they give up 113 yards/game, which is 13th in the league. nothing wrong with that. BUT they give up 4.9 yards/carry, which is 30th in the league. last i checked, dallas likes to run the ball. in the first matchup, elliott had 127 yards on only 16 carries. that's 7.9 yards/carry. and his long was 26 yards, so it's not like he popped one huge run to distort the stats. he's probably going to have to have 25-30 carries today. and it's sad that i can't rely on an nfl coaching staff to figure that out. but, c'mon, even these guys can see that they need to feed elliott tonight, right?
in the first matchup, dallas outgained seattle by a few yards, but had 3 turnovers vs none for seattle. the turnovers should even out today in dallas.
over (43.5) 3 units. this is nuts. but the total is practically screaming for under money. the total in the first matchup was 40, and the score was 24-13. so why is this total so high?
