Saturday

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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sorry, shorter write-ups today. usually i do them while i'm doing my handicapping. they help me organize my thoughts. but i handicapped these games yesterday (at work, don't tell the boss!). i'll try to hit a couple highlights.

OH, fun story. practically got in an argument with a manager at the local casino yesterday. i was putting in these wagers and noticed the liberty/ga so game was not available. i asked the guy who is there to help schmucks enter 8-team parlays. he had a couple thoughts, none of which applied. so he asked one of the tellers and a manager why the game wasn't available. they tell him, and the manager accompanies him as he comes to inform me. "liberty is an fcs team," he says. "um, no they are not," i replied. "they are in a bowl game. that is the "b" in fbs, for crying out loud. if they were still in the fcs, they would not be in a bowl game (sorry, the celebration bowl doesn't count). in fact, they left fcs two years ago. they were not eligible for a bowl game until this year." he doesn't quite know what to say, and then tells me "we haven't offered liberty games all year."

who the fuck is running this book, that they don't know liberty is now an fbs team? oh, AND THEY HAVE ACCEPTED BETS ON FCS GAMES ALL YEAR. at least until the playoffs. i don't know why they stopped. anyway, i just said ok and walked away. no point in arguing.

new mexico bowl

went back and forth on this game a couple times. nearly landed on sd st. and i really don't want to keep betting on mac teams. but i HAVE to take the points from sd st. they might not score more than 3 points (ok, i hope they will, as you'll see soon).

cmu 1st H (ML) 1 unit to win 1.5
cmu (+3.5) 1 unit
cmu/sd st over (40.5) 1 unit. ok, obviously i don't love this game. and that over bet is either genius (ha!) or really dumb. really, really hard to see this game going over 40. but i feel like this could be a case of a good defense maybe not being on their a-game today. so if that's the case, and the chips put up some points... this should be a close game right down to the wire.

i did just remember... i think this is mcelwain's first year with the chips. betting against coaches in that situation continues to be profitable. so wouldn't be a surprise to see sd st cover this game.
 

Smitty

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Cure Bowl

Cure Bowl

so this is what i was going to bet. the total was going to be my largest wager today. i kinda hope it loses now. but since i couldn't bet it, it's practically a lock.

ga so 1st H (-3.5) 1 unit
ga so 1st H over (30) 1 unit
ga so (-4.5) 1 unit
over (58.5) 4 units. very short version, SINCE I COULDN'T BET THIS GAME. liberty has played a complete garbage schedule. they somehow beat UB in september. other than that, here's every team they beat this year:

hampton (i guess liberty did not extend hamptonality to this poor team)
new mexico
new mexico st (i think winning both games means jerry falwell's ghost is now the governor of new mexico)
maine
umass
new mexico st (again)

and i really like the over because ga so can run the ball. liberty can't stop the run. liberty can throw the ball. ga so can't stop the pass. simple.
 

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Boca Raton Bowl

Boca Raton Bowl

well, this is the one they are all playing for.

i was going to make a 3-unit play on fau with the points and another 2 units on the ML. then the suspensions were announced and the line went crazy. seems like a gross overreaction. but i'm staying off this game now. normally i love playing against bowl teams who are basically staying home (or, in this case, literally staying home). but fau played in this same game 2 years ago and absolutely crushed someone. like 50-3.
 

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Camellia Bowl

Camellia Bowl

fun fact, smitty has never lost a camellia bowl wager. another fun fact, i just made that up. i vowed to make this the first year i don't look up what a camellia is. i think it's a flower.

ark st 1st H (-.5) 1 unit
ark st (-1) 3 units
over (60.5) 2 units. i definitely don't like the line movement. but i think ark st is definitely the better team, and maybe with a little extra incentive to finish strong for the coach. fiu had a pretty disappointing year, after going 9-4 last year.
 

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

washington (-1.5) 2 units
washington (-3.5) 2 units
under (48) 1 unit. feels like this line is really begging for boise money. and, on paper, i don't see any reason why boise won't win this game. in fact, full disclosure, back on 12/9, i was betting a couple games early and the 3.5 looked enticing, so i grabbed it. that's right, i bet boise before putting much thought into the game. never forget, smitty ain't all that bright. and i totally forgot that i had done that until about 10 minutes ago, as i was going through a stack of tickets i found from 12/9. so i'm losing the juice in regards to the spread no matter what happens. at least the line didn't move up to 4. anyway, after actually thinking about the game, i liked the huskies. don't love 'em, but that 3.5 really tells me they want boise money. i like the first half more, as washington has blown some late leads and, at least earlier in the season, boise was getting off to slow starts. hopefully the huskies come up pumped up for coach's last game.

oh, and if both defenses come to play, it should be tough sledding for either offense.
 

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
7,410
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Upstate NY
New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans Bowl

last game of the day, and we have a big fav. obviously the big question is - does app st show up? i finally came to the square opinion... it doesn't matter. their second string could win this by 17. uab was a nice story last year, led by a very good defense. they have regressed this year. here's the teams they've beaten, along with their final record:

alabama (sorry, alabama STATE) tough year for the hornets, as they went 5-6.
akron 0-12
alabama (sorry, SOUTH alabama) 2-10
rice 3-9
utsa 4-8
old dom 1-11
utep 1-11
la tech (without j'mar smith. kind of a big deal.) 9-3
n texas 4-8

obviously la tech is a different team without smith. combined record of the remaining fbs teams that uab beat... 15-69. that's nuts.

another way to look at it... including the conference championship game, the blazers played 3 teams with a winning record in conference play. they went 0-3, losing by a combined score of 106-21.

so as much as i hate laying this many points at any time, especially in a bowl game where the favorite is disappointed to be there...

app st (-16.5) 4 units.
 

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
7,410
1,992
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Upstate NY
Smitty I don?t remember you playing every game in the past? You must be in a ZONE :00hour Good Luck 🍀 buddy. :0008
Keep it up

only during bowl season. :0074

need a real strong finish from app st to turn a profit today. :facepalm:
 

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
7,410
1,992
113
Upstate NY
UAB has maxed out on points. Need App. To keep running 🏃🏾

3 penalties in 5 plays on app st's last drive after they reached the uab 35 fucking killed the cover.

and the 49-yard fg from a guy who'd made 12 of 27 from over 40. oh well, we move on.
 
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