Saturday's Picks......11-05-05

[INtheBLUE]

Gonna kick things off early:

Line is going down and I'm gonna get it before it goes back up, I may add more if it keeps going down but I don't think it will enough for me to make it an even bigger play. I capped this already at 51 pts with a 6 pt variable, so on my system, it should be money, ........should.

Miami / Va Tech over 41..... -105 ..... $210 / $200

More plays to come.

Season +$767

As always, GL to all........especially myself.

 

[INtheBLUE]

Adding Early Picks:

Michigan St -5....-105.....$105 / $100

Northwestern +1.5....+105.....$100 / $105

South Carolina +5.5.....-110.....$110 / $100

California / Oregon under 61...-105....$105 / $100

California -1 ....-105....$105 / $100

Stanford +32.5 ....-108.....$108 / $100

I'm looking at 3 more, take note:

Pinny has Toledo at -12.5 +116. Great chance to play the books against each other for free Friday money. Just gotta find the other side.
I'll get back quickly if I get the other half. Damn books holden their lines. Maybe Betjamaica or betroyal will get to -105. That would be a free 4.5% boost!!

 

[INtheBLUE]

Adding One of the three already before the line drops which it is about to:

Wisconsin +10.5.....-110.....$110 / $100

Season +$767

 

[INtheBLUE]

Adding another one:

UAB ML.... +118 ....$100 / $118

Still looking at one more.

I'll have to wait and see.

Season +$767

 

[Ronnie]

Can't believe Stanford is a 32' point underdog to USC! I know they lost to Cal Davis but they're not a bad team.

 

[INtheBLUE]

Agreed Ronnie, They are completely a different team than they were the first 3 weeks. I watched the game aginst Arizona St and UCLA. Stanford is better than Cal at this point I think. Not saying much, but this team is playing better than they were. Dont see them getting completely blown out. I actually like the under in the first half a little too, which I calculate should be around 30 - 32.

Thanks for contributing, Ronnie. GL to ya.

 

[INtheBLUE]

Gotta LOVE a win to start the week!!

Still looking at one more game, waiting on a friend to e-mail me with some stats to fill out the equations.

Season +$885

Hope evryone I like won big tonight.

 

[gman2]

my only hesitation on stanford would be that the cardinal put a major scare into usc last year. the worst thing for stanford bettors is that they almost beat the trojans last year.

sounds paradoxical, but its true.

and thats reason enough for me to lay off this game, because usc could lay a serious beatdown on them.

 

[INtheBLUE]

Hey Gman, thanks for visiting my thread and throwin your highly valued opinion in here.

I dont like the bet either, but the little math system that I have puts this game at 22 with a 6 point variable. Whenever I get a 3+ points in my favor to an underdog, I bet it. This one is 4.5 pts in my favor to an underdog after the variable so I couldnt lay off. Dont usually bet the Pac Ten, but for some reason since week 5, my equations (notice I dont say system) have really been close on the Pac 10. I have been inside my 6 point variable 76% of the time. So with my safeguard 3 points on the dog, I have been hitting 83%. So I had to bet it.

The Big Ten Over unders have been WAYY off though. And My SEC is another week away from leveling out. We will see.

On my picks you notice I dont have writups but I will post them other places. My picks are not based on opinions at all. Just something I have been working on for a couple of years. That's why I stick tight to the money management and the small amounts (2 unit avg plays) compared to some guys who throw around 20K on a game. I have 5 different books and a K in each in the beginning of the year. I usually break even or lose a little until the middle, then I shoot up as the season ends. I dont use it on bowls though.

Maybe in a couple of years I will hit the magic overall 80% and start getting more respect. As of this point I guess I am up 17.7 units.

 

[INtheBLUE]

Adding what should be my last one of the week, but I found 2 more on the lip, unfortunately I have been having trouble collecting stats and injuries on these games. Here's the one more.

Nothern Illinois -3 +107.....$100 / $107

If I get some stats, I may be back with one or two more.

GL to all.

 

[INtheBLUE]

FREE MONEY Act Fast

FREE MONEY Act Fast

Free money play

Two plays for 5%

Northern Illinois -3.... +115 ... $1000 / $1150 (Pinny)
Central Michigan +3....-105 .....$1100 / $1047.60 (betjamaica)

Win $47.60 -$50 either way. Free.

Season +$885

Nevermind, by the time I got back to it, no -105 left. So no play for me but Ill keep watchin and try to get it to you guys as soon as possible.

 

[AR182]

blue...

nice hit on uab last night...

haven't really handicpped all of the games this weekend....so have no opinion yet on your picks...

good luck & continued success...

 

[INtheBLUE]

Thanks AR, U2 buddy.

 

[Scott4USC]

Just my 2 cents but Stanford might not be ready to play. You better be ready if you are playing @USC and it should be a sell out. I heard only 1k tix left.

Stanford should have beat UCLA but they fawked up in the 4th quarter. A devastating loss. Now they must recover in less than a week to play @USC? TOUGH! USC can score quickly (duh) and if USC gets up on Stanford, I think they pack it in.

On the flip side, Pete Carroll is very good friends with Walt Harriss. Very good friends. Does he try and blowm him out? Carroll said this week he loves to play against coaches he knows and we all know what a competitior Carroll is. So I am not sure on this angle. First time both coaches meet.

BTW, CAL is a lot better than Stanford. I'll take Tedford and CAL over Stanford. Stanford is hot/cold team. Lost to Davis but should have beat UCLA. I expect them not to be 100% mentally in the game against USC. I do like the Stanford QB!

Good luck with your plays!

 

[INtheBLUE]

Read the first line, keep your money, you need it lately. Really hope you get back on the plus side so I can quit ribbing you about your losing streak, and get back to ribbing you full time about your USC pajamas.

Still have tickets left? Jeez, not used to the pac ten where every game doesnt sell out immediately. Most Big ten and SEC games sell out in a week or two, in APRIL. Would love to still get tickets to any SEC game without paying $250 a piece for them. Got my eye on a set of 4 on ebay to the AL / Auburn game that is at $650, but still has 2 days left. They are upper Section too.

Shock of all shocks, you like USC to win, huh? Knew that without you posting.

My posted picks are not based on my opinions. Just a not-so-simple equation (read above post). But thanks for yours.

Thanks for the good luck. Mighty civil. Maybe I should move in with my parents and start betting $500 a unit, I'd almost be up $10,000 in 3 weeks! But I digress, I do this for fun and dont lose 20,000 on a game!

Oh, by the way Scotty, thanks for comin' to my thread for the daily verbal ribbing instead of me coming to you. And thank you for not telling me my post was wrong and it should have read like you wanted it too.

Scotty, have a nice day!

 

[DerekNJND]

Adding One of the three already before the line drops which it is about to:

Wisconsin +10.5.....-110.....$110 / $100

Season +$767

its moving alright, +11 now. I wouldnt touch this game either way. Wasnt expecting PSU to be given more than 7. Think about it, PSU given 7.5 against a Purdue team which everyone THINKS Wisconsin is probably better than. doesnt make sense right? Neither did Michigan -3 at Northwestern last week but I took the Wolverines to the bank. There are two championship calibur teams in the big ten: PSU and OSU. Vegas knows that. Either of these teams AT HOME can easily beat another big ten squad by 10.

 

[DerekNJND]

sorry forgot to say GL anyway, wasnt tryin to be a jerk haha

 

[INtheBLUE]

It did go down to 10 after I posted, I didnt know if it would go back up, It took till today to hit 11. If I knew then, I would have waited. I watched the vig spread increase in a matter of hours so I got it while I knew I could. Watched it go from..... -103 to -117 in 4 hours. Had to pull the trigger early. I just didnt want to lose the hook.

My gut feeling is completely against the Wisconsin and the Northwestern play, and even the Stanford play (which I said earlier), but I am playing the numbers and seeing where it leads. As long as that is 70%, I'll take it.

And really....Gl back atcha Derek. Thanks for visiting.

 

[DerekNJND]

It did go down to 10 after I posted, I didnt know if it would go back up, It took till today to hit 11. If I knew then, I would have waited. I watched the vig spread increase in a matter of hours so I got it while I knew I could. Watched it go from..... -103 to -117 in 4 hours. Had to pull the trigger early. I just didnt want to lose the hook.

My gut feeling is completely against the Wisconsin and the Northwestern play, and even the Stanford play (which I said earlier), but I am playing the numbers and seeing where it leads. As long as that is 70%, I'll take it.

And really....Gl back atcha Derek. Thanks for visiting.

I played Stanford last week against UCLA in a game that EVERYONE liked UCLA in. They've been a nice surprise the last 2 games for me. Wish I would locked onto them for those first 2 big wins in their little 3 game streak. N'western might have shot its wad for the season already I'd be careful...think back to preseason. If you coulda got Iowa at only -2.5 against NW you woulda put your mortage on it, I know I wouldve. A couple good wins, or losses sometimes makes the big picture of talent really blurry. kinda like Tenn getting 8.5 at ND this weekend. Before this season started, if you would have told me thats what that line would have been, I would have laid money on ND to win the BCS championship

 

[INtheBLUE]

You made some good points and I cant argue with any of them, but I have to play the math, and see if yet one more year of above 70% after week 7 is in the forecast. I can only hope and be consistent. Again it's just a numbers game for my posted picks.

Cant believe the polar opposites ND and Tennessee have gone this year. Absolutely CRAZY!!