Saturday's Tip Sheet

[Lumi]

College Football Matchup - U-C-L-A at (24) U-S-C

College Football Matchup - U-C-L-A at (24) U-S-C

College Football Matchup - U-C-L-A at (24) U-S-C

U-C-L-A Bruins (6-5) at (24) U-S-C Trojans (7-3)
Date: Saturday, November 28th
Kickoff: 10 p.m. (et)
Site: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (93,607) -- Los Angeles, California
Surface: Grass
Home Record: U-C-L-A 4-2; U-S-C 3-1
Away Record: U-C-L-A 2-3; U-S-C 4-2
Conference Record: U-C-L-A 3-5; U-S-C 4-3
Current Road Win/Loss Streak: U-C-L-A 1W
Current Home Win/Loss Streak: U-S-C 1L
Television: FSN
Announcers: Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis and Michael Eaves
All-Time Series: U-S-C (43-28-7)
Last Meeting: December 6, 2008 (U-S-C, 28-7 at U-C-L-A)
Series Streak: U-S-C has won the last two meetings.

Season Schedule/Results
U-C-L-A Bruins
Sep 5 - W vs. San Diego St, 33-14
Sep 12 - W at Tennessee, 19-15
Sep 19 - W vs. Kansas State, 23-9
Sep 26 - Open
Oct 3 - L at Stanford, 16-24
Oct 10 - L vs. Oregon, 10-24
Oct 17 - L vs. California, 26-45
Oct 24 - L at Arizona, 13-27
Oct 31 - L at Oregon State, 19-26
Nov 7 - W vs. Washington, 24-23
Nov 14 - W at Washington St, 43-7
Nov 21 - W vs. Arizona State, 23-13
Nov 28 - at U-S-C, 10:00 PM
U-S-C Trojans
Sep 5 - W vs. San Jose St, 56-3
Sep 12 - W at Ohio State, 18-15
Sep 19 - L at Washington, 13-16
Sep 26 - W vs. Washington St, 27-6
Oct 3 - W at California, 30-3
Oct 10 - Open
Oct 17 - W at Notre Dame, 34-27
Oct 24 - W vs. Oregon State, 42-36
Oct 31 - L at Oregon, 20-47
Nov 7 - W at Arizona State, 14-9
Nov 14 - L vs. Stanford, 21-55
Nov 21 - Open
Nov 28 - vs. U-C-L-A, 10:00 PM
Dec 5 - vs. Arizona, 3:30 PM

 

[Lumi]

Navy (8-3) at Hawaii (5-6)

Navy (8-3) at Hawaii (5-6)

Navy (8-3) at Hawaii (5-6)



DATE & TIME: Saturday, November 28th, 10:30 p.m. (et).

FACTS & STATS: Site: Aloha Stadium (50,000) -- Honolulu, Hawaii. Television: ESPN U. Home Record: Navy 5-1, Hawaii 3-2. Away Record: Navy 3-2, Hawaii 2-4. Neutral Record: Navy 0-0, Hawaii 0-0. Conference Record: Navy 0-0, Hawaii 3-5. Series Record: Hawaii leads, 1-0.

GAME NOTES: Already locked in to the Texas Bowl at Reliant Stadium in Houston on New Year's Eve, the Navy Midshipmen now make it their mission to make sure the Hawaii Warriors stay home for the postseason as the two squads collide at Aloha Stadium this weekend.

Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo, a native of Laie', Hawaii and a graduate from UH in 1989, was a player for the Warriors for a number of years so he is more than familiar with what to expect when he brings his Midshipmen to the shore. The academy has been watching from the sidelines since defeating Delaware by a score of 35-18 back on November 14th in Annapolis. The win was the second straight and the seventh in the last eight outings for the squad.

As for the Warriors, they need to win this and their season finale against Wisconsin next weekend just to become bowl eligible and again take part in the Hawaii Bowl, played right here in Honolulu. Since dropping six consecutive decisions, the Warriors have bounced back with a three-game win streak. The most recent of those triumphs came last Saturday in a 17-10 overtime decision against San Jose State on the road. Once a rarity, Hawaii has actually won two games on the mainland this season, the other coming against Washington State in the second game of the campaign.

Hawaii won the only previous meeting between the teams back in 1999 by a score of 48-41. Against the service academies, the Warriors have a mark of 8-11-1 all-time.

Consistently ranked as one of the top running teams in the country, the Midshipmen are at it again in 2009 with 282.6 ypg on the ground, ranking them third in the country. A total of seven players have gained a least 100 yards for the program on the ground, with Ricky Dobbs handling most of the action with his 227 carries for 797 yards. Bound to hit the end zone here and there, Dobbs has tallied 22 rushing scores this season, easily one of the best marks in the nation. Dobbs, who also serves as Navy quarterback, has tried to get that aspect of the offense up and moving, but it hasn't been easy. Granted, he has thrown for 752 yards and four touchdowns, but the team's average of just 70.8 ypg through the air means it is dead last among the 120 programs that make up the Football Bowl Subdivision. While it doesn't fall under the offense so to speak, Navy could stand some improvement on kickoff returns because the squad is averaging just 17.8 yards per attempt, 119th in the country this week.

For as much as the Midshipmen run the ball, one would think the team would get plenty of opportunity to practice stopping such plays by the opposition, but to this point in the campaign the team has had a hard time getting beyond the line of scrimmage. While its true that Navy has permitted just 133.9 ypg on the ground to rank 50th in the country at the moment, where the team figuratively drops the ball is in tackles for loss, averaging just 3.5 per contest. Ranking last in the entire FBS in TFLs is not easy to shake off, neither is ranking 98th in sacks per game with an average of just 1.3 per outing. If not for the efforts of Craig Schaefer who has four of the team's 15 sacks, one can only imagine how bleak the outlook would be. If the Midshipmen can't get into the backfield against Hawaii with any regularity that means Warrior QBs will be allotted plenty of time to pick their targets down the field.

It seems like all of a sudden, not only does Hawaii have a decent running game, it is actually making a huge difference in the outcome of games. Last weekend it took a five-yard touchdown run by Leon Wright-Jackson in overtime to get the Warriors into the win column for the third time in as many games. Wright-Jackson carried the ball 10 times for 65 yards, trailing Alex Green who registered 81 yards for the squad. Were it not for Shane Austin's three sacks the squad would have had a decent total on the ground. Austin was credited with one rushing score and 299 yards through the air for the team as well. For all the different players who have stepped in under center for Hawaii this season, one would think there would be a drop off in production, but after 11 games this squad still ranks first in the Western Athletic Conference and third in the nation with 347.1 ypg. But as huge as the numbers have been from time to time, this team has still been held to 17 points or less in four games in 2009.

The Hawaii defense was outstanding in the first half against the Spartans on the road, registering interceptions on three of the first four possessions by the home team. Lametrius Davis was credited with two of the picks, the other going to Mana Silva, while Tuika Tufaga got in on the act with a sack and a forced fumble that was recovered by Jeramy Bryant. The Warriors limited the locals to 21 fewer offensive plays and just 277 yards overall in the decision. Despite forcing a number of SJSU turnovers last weekend, Hawaii is still ailing in that department, ranked sixth in the league and tied for 107th in the country with a turnover margin of minus-0.73 turnovers per contest. Even though he has started just four of 11 games this season, Corey Paredes is still the top man on the team with his four sacks and has been credited with three forced fumbles. Silva is now up to six INTs on the year and combines that with 60 tackles to make him one of the more feared players on the Hawaii defense this season.

Navy already knows where it is heading next month, but the Warriors are still in limbo so the incentive should be on the side of Hawaii. However, as one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to stopping the run, the Warriors are setting themselves up for disappointment this weekend.

Predicted Outcome: Navy 31, Hawaii 17

 

[Lumi]

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (0-4) (0-2 H) vs Navy Midshipmen (2-2) (1-1 A)

Game Time: 10:30 p.m. EDT Saturday, November 28

Stadium: Aloha Stadium Surface: Turf




RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Navy Midshipmen HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 5 - 1 3 - 2 8 - 3 3 - 2 3 - 2 6 - 4 2 - 2 2 - 2 4 - 4
Last 5 games 2 - 1 2 - 0 4 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 1 1 - 1 2 - 2
YTD vs. Conf. 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 3 - 2 2 - 4 5 - 6 1 - 3 4 - 2 5 - 5 3 - 1 1 - 3 4 - 4
Last 5 games 2 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 2 1 - 2 2 - 0 3 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 2
YTD vs. Conf. 2 - 2 1 - 3 3 - 5 1 - 3 2 - 2 3 - 5 3 - 1 0 - 3 3 - 4
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
Navy Midshipmen 1 - 1 2 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 3 - 2 0 - 0
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 2 - 0 2 - 2 3 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 1 - 3



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

Navy Midshipmen
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/05/09 Sat @OHST 27 - 31 L +22 +22 W 18 NL NL G
09/12/09 Sat LATECH 32 - 14 W -8 -7.5 W 10.5 NL NL G
09/19/09 Sat @PITT 14 - 27 L +8 +8 L -5 51.0 49.0 U -8.0 G
09/26/09 Sat WKTY 38 - 22 W -29 -29.5 L -13.5 51.0 51.0 O +- 9.0 G
10/03/09 Sat AF 16 - 13 W -3.5 -2.5 W 0.5 48.5 48.0 U -19.0 G
10/10/09 Sat @RICE 63 - 14 W -14 -10.5 W 38.5 52.0 55.0 O +-22.0 T
10/17/09 Sat @SMU 38 - 35 W -8 -6.5 L -3.5 57.0 53.5 O +-19.5 G
10/24/09 Sat WF 13 - 10 W -0 +2.5 W 5.5 47.0 47.0 U -24.0 G
10/31/09 Sat TEMP 24 - 27 L -7 -6.5 L -9.5 41.0 41.0 O +-10.0 G
11/07/09 Sat @ND 23 - 21 W +11 +12.5 W 14.5 54.0 56.0 U -12.0 G
11/14/09 Sat DELAWR 35 - 18 W -0 -0 W 17 NL NL G


Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/05/09 Sat CENARK 25 - 20 W -0 -0 W 5 NL NL T
09/12/09 Sat @WAST 38 - 20 W -6 -2 W 16 NL NL T
09/19/09 Sat @UNLV 33 - 34 L +6.5 +7 W 6 55.0 56.0 O +-11.0 G
09/30/09 Wed @LATECH 6 - 27 L +2.5 +6 L -15 55.0 57.5 U -24.5 G
10/10/09 Sat FRE 17 - 42 L +7 +11 L -14 59.0 58.5 O +- 0.5 T
10/17/09 Sat @ID 23 - 35 L +7.5 +8 L -4 57.0 61.0 U -3.0 T
10/24/09 Sat BST 9 - 54 L +24 +25 L -20 60.0 58.0 O +- 5.0 T
10/31/09 Sat @NV 21 - 31 L +25 +29.5 W 19.5 NL NL G
11/07/09 Sat UTST 49 - 36 W +3.5 +2 W 15 58.0 60.0 O +-25.0 T
11/14/09 Sat NMST 24 - 6 W -15 -19 L -1 55.0 53.0 U -23.0 T
11/21/09 Sat @SJST 17 - 10 W -3 -2 W 5 54.0 53.5 U -26.5 G



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
NO PREVIOUS MEETINGS




STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
NAVY (off) 33.0 21 57 293 5.1 10 5 0.5 87 8.7 380 0.2 0.6
HI (def) 31.6 19 37 158 4.3 28 18 0.6 211 7.5 369 0.8 0.6
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
NAVY (def) 25.6 21 28 107 3.8 36 23 0.6 271 7.5 378 0.8 0.6
HI (off) 24.8 22 25 154 6.2 44 24 0.5 301 6.8 455 1.8 1.4
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
NAVY (off) 29.4 19 59 283 4.8 7 4 0.6 71 10.1 354 0.3 0.6
HI (def) 28.6 21 40 189 4.7 28 18 0.6 207 7.4 396 1.1 0.9
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
NAVY (def) 21.1 19 32 134 4.2 29 18 0.6 204 7.0 338 0.9 0.6
HI (off) 23.8 22 23 112 4.9 44 27 0.6 347 7.9 459 1.4 1.4



SCORING AVERAGES:

Navy Midshipmen (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 8.4 5.6 14 8.4 10.0 0.6 19
POINTS ALLOWED 4.8 9.0 13.8 3.4 8.4 0.0 11.8



Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.0 6.8 12.8 3.8 8.2 0.0 12
POINTS ALLOWED 7.6 9.0 16.6 8.8 6.2 0.0 15



Navy Midshipmen (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.5 6.0 12.5 6.4 9.9 0.5 16.8
POINTS ALLOWED 3.7 8.1 11.8 2.4 6.9 0.0 9.3



Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 8.6 5.5 14.1 1.7 7.3 0.6 9.6
POINTS ALLOWED 6.6 7.5 14.1 7.8 6.7 0.0 14.5



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
Navy Midshipmen 51 -1.0
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 46 8.5
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 59 UNKNOWN

 

[Lumi]

Preview:
Navy at Hawaii
When: 10:30 PM ET, Saturday, November 28, 2009
Where: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii

Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The Hawaii Warriors are ranked 8 on offense, averaging 458.5 yards per game. The Warriors are averaging 112.5 yards rushing and 346.0 yards passing so far this season.

The Navy Midshipmen are ranked 78 on offense, averaging 353.4 yards per game. The Midshipmen are averaging 282.5 yards rushing and 70.8 yards passing so far this season.


Home and Away

The Hawaii Warriors are 3-2 at home this season, 3-5 against conference opponents and 2-1 against non-conference opponents.

At home the Warriors are averaging 24.8 scoring, and holding teams to 31.6 points scored on defense.

The Navy Midshipmen are 3-2 while on the road this season, 1-0 against conference opponents and 7-3 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Midshipmen are averaging 33.0 scoring, and holding teams to 25.6 points scored on defense.

 

[Lumi]

Trends - Navy at Hawaii

Trends - Navy at Hawaii

Trends - Navy at Hawaii

ATS Trends

Navy


Midshipmen are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Midshipmen are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. WAC.
Midshipmen are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite.
Midshipmen are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Midshipmen are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Midshipmen are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games in November.
Midshipmen are 56-24 ATS in their last 80 road games.
Midshipmen are 48-22-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.


Hawaii

Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Warriors are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Warriors are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.


OU Trends

Navy

Under is 4-0 in Midshipmen last 4 games in November.
Under is 4-0 in Midshipmen last 4 vs. WAC.
Over is 6-1 in Midshipmen last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 5-1 in Midshipmen last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-2 in Midshipmen last 8 games as a road favorite.
Under is 5-2 in Midshipmen last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 11-5 in Midshipmen last 16 games following a ATS win.


Hawaii

Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 non-conference games.
Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games as a home underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 13-4 in Warriors last 17 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Warriors last 10 games in November.
Under is 13-6 in Warriors last 19 games on fieldturf.


Head to Head

No trends available.

 

[Lumi]

DONE ! :00hour :00hour