tuesday night: miami at marshall
obviously leftwich is the x-factor in this one. but whether he plays or doesnt player, really feel like marshall is the right side. both teams have explosive offenses- thats no secret. but when the chips are down- marshall continues to get it done. pruett's record in championship-deciding and/or bowl games at marshall is staggering, which is why the herd's team motto is "we play for championships". pruett is a flat out winner in these spots. 15-2 in these kinds of games (and 2-0 vs miami in '00 and '01 when the mac east was on the line). even a supposedly "down" marshall team dominated a damn good western michigan team in the mac championship 2 yrs ago in a 19-14 outright win where marshall led from wire to wire. i gotta reference that game because if leftwich cant go, i think pruett (even though vegas line wont necessarily say so) will play the "underdog card" to his team and get them convinced that nobody expects them to win withouth leftwich. and the last time the herd was an "underdog" at home was that wmu game for the title. this team just plays at another level at home when the chips are down. and good miami teams have gotten worked in huntington in the past. both teams are very similar to last year as far as personel and marshall moved the ball up and down the field on miamis defense. roethlisberger, albeit a freshman at the time, looked average vs marshalls defense and didnt play all that well. obviously, the status of leftwich is a key to this game, but really feel like marshall is the right side, even without him. its a natural tendency to think that the herd will be a mess without their heisman-caliber quarterback, but theres no way i go against pruett in this spot, as a pseudo-underdog if leftwich doesnt play. the herd is 46-1 SU at home under pruett. his team will find a way to win their 7th straight mac east title.
saturday: bowling green at south florida
game opened at usf (-3.5) then got quickly bet down and has now settled around (-2.5). this is a tough spot for bowling green. they look appealing as a dog, but late-season travels down to florida have resulted in many a bloodbath for mac teams in the past. with central florida now an official member of the conference, that will change as teams get used to that unusually long travel (compared to the short travels of conference play from ohio/michigan/indiana/illinois area). south florida, like central florida did in the late 90's as well as the last few years, is now scheduling games with mac teams for some home-and-home series. bowling green really didnt play all that poorly against northern on saturday. and the huskies worked on some short fields (bgsu INT at own 10 and 80 yd NIU punt return led to 14 quick pts) but other than that- bgsu moved the ball on northerns defense, even with harris having somewhat of an "off" day. as expected, turner got his share of yds vs the bgsu run defense. he didnt have a monster day, but it was a very methodical, bust your ass for 60 minutes effort from turner. lots of 5-7 yard runs all day long. bgsu basically had a "bend-but-dont-break" effort on defense saturday. coming off their first loss in dekalb and now traveling south for a game with a good usf team makes for a tough spot for bowling green. as soon as the line comes out, i will likely pass on bowling green and take a strong look at the over. everyone expected points galore in the northern/bgsu game last week. for some reason, it didnt happen even though both teams got their yards at will. im gonna give the over a shot as long as its reasonable (mid 60's sounds right). the niu/bgsu score should give some sense of "normalcy" to the vegas total, and especially with this game being a non-conf affair, im expecting an aggressive approach from meyer- who was surprisingly conservative on saturday (save for the wr pass for the td in the 3rd quarter)
will post some toledo/wmu thoughts a little later as well as some akron/buffalo ones as well.
gl to all you guys with your plays tonight and this coming weekend.
obviously leftwich is the x-factor in this one. but whether he plays or doesnt player, really feel like marshall is the right side. both teams have explosive offenses- thats no secret. but when the chips are down- marshall continues to get it done. pruett's record in championship-deciding and/or bowl games at marshall is staggering, which is why the herd's team motto is "we play for championships". pruett is a flat out winner in these spots. 15-2 in these kinds of games (and 2-0 vs miami in '00 and '01 when the mac east was on the line). even a supposedly "down" marshall team dominated a damn good western michigan team in the mac championship 2 yrs ago in a 19-14 outright win where marshall led from wire to wire. i gotta reference that game because if leftwich cant go, i think pruett (even though vegas line wont necessarily say so) will play the "underdog card" to his team and get them convinced that nobody expects them to win withouth leftwich. and the last time the herd was an "underdog" at home was that wmu game for the title. this team just plays at another level at home when the chips are down. and good miami teams have gotten worked in huntington in the past. both teams are very similar to last year as far as personel and marshall moved the ball up and down the field on miamis defense. roethlisberger, albeit a freshman at the time, looked average vs marshalls defense and didnt play all that well. obviously, the status of leftwich is a key to this game, but really feel like marshall is the right side, even without him. its a natural tendency to think that the herd will be a mess without their heisman-caliber quarterback, but theres no way i go against pruett in this spot, as a pseudo-underdog if leftwich doesnt play. the herd is 46-1 SU at home under pruett. his team will find a way to win their 7th straight mac east title.
saturday: bowling green at south florida
game opened at usf (-3.5) then got quickly bet down and has now settled around (-2.5). this is a tough spot for bowling green. they look appealing as a dog, but late-season travels down to florida have resulted in many a bloodbath for mac teams in the past. with central florida now an official member of the conference, that will change as teams get used to that unusually long travel (compared to the short travels of conference play from ohio/michigan/indiana/illinois area). south florida, like central florida did in the late 90's as well as the last few years, is now scheduling games with mac teams for some home-and-home series. bowling green really didnt play all that poorly against northern on saturday. and the huskies worked on some short fields (bgsu INT at own 10 and 80 yd NIU punt return led to 14 quick pts) but other than that- bgsu moved the ball on northerns defense, even with harris having somewhat of an "off" day. as expected, turner got his share of yds vs the bgsu run defense. he didnt have a monster day, but it was a very methodical, bust your ass for 60 minutes effort from turner. lots of 5-7 yard runs all day long. bgsu basically had a "bend-but-dont-break" effort on defense saturday. coming off their first loss in dekalb and now traveling south for a game with a good usf team makes for a tough spot for bowling green. as soon as the line comes out, i will likely pass on bowling green and take a strong look at the over. everyone expected points galore in the northern/bgsu game last week. for some reason, it didnt happen even though both teams got their yards at will. im gonna give the over a shot as long as its reasonable (mid 60's sounds right). the niu/bgsu score should give some sense of "normalcy" to the vegas total, and especially with this game being a non-conf affair, im expecting an aggressive approach from meyer- who was surprisingly conservative on saturday (save for the wr pass for the td in the 3rd quarter)
will post some toledo/wmu thoughts a little later as well as some akron/buffalo ones as well.
gl to all you guys with your plays tonight and this coming weekend.
