Here are my plays for this week and if anyone thinks that I am biting off boundbook's system, then you are absolutely correct! :00hour
Here it is: http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=338748
Its good reading by the way and I think he is on to something. I just want to break it down and twist a bit more and use line moves, consensus and some key numbers to make my selections and top it off with a little whacky superstitious scOOp Mojo.
The board is 30 something games deep so I would like to make a couple of rules
Rule #1 No taking bad teams:nono:
When you take bad teams you can expect bad things to happen because lets face it they are not that good.
Rule #2Stay off the road kurby This rule is only applicable to college ball because they have so many games. It does not mean that road teams can't win or cover I would just like to think I increase my chances of winning by looking at the teams that are home.
So the first part of my recipe is a mixture of line moves and consensus. I will break it down as I list the games as to how I came to that conclusion. I look at two places for consesnsus, the old standby (WL) and a sportsbook. I like the sportsbook because it actually shows money that is placed on a team I will list them as (SB)
Indiana +8
Line opened at 7.5 and has been pushed up to 8 almost everywhere I looked--it looks as for the line forecast it may move back down to 7.5 so I am grabbing it now.
WL: 70.83%
SB: 86.95% :0corn
Scoop Intangibles: I can't just bet a team on line move and/or consensus because then I would always be on some pretty bad teams for the most part. Indiana is off an upset loss against Ball St and are better than they played while the Spartans are off a big win against the Irish.
Trends
You can always find a trend for the team you like so to me its like a girl in a bikini, they look nice but they don't really show you anything. When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Road team - Vs Big Ten opponent - Coming off 1 ATS win they are 78-126 straight up!:scared
I like Pittsburgh and Virgina but all are on the road so i don't want to break my rule if I don't have to. :mj06:
Here is an interesting case: Florida -22.5 I am not going to play this game but according to where I see my line moves they opened up around 24 and since have dropped down to 22.5
Look at the consensus numbers
WL: 62%
SB: 85%
So everyone is betting on Florida but the line is dropping why is this? I have seen some good cappers comment on this and would love to hear more angles on it. Here is my theory. The public is betting on Florida but the line is dropping. Dropping the line if anything would indicate that the books are not adjusting to get even action because if anything this calls for more Gator cash, so my only assumption is the line was off to begin with. The books opened Florida high assuming the Gator action but even with the Gator action the line is too high and they have under valued Miss St. Knowing they will most likely never get even action they can move it freely, they want to get close to the number over riding even action since it won't happen in this game. So that was my long winded way of saying I would take Miss St, but alas as mentioned, I will pass.
Eastern Michigan +6.5
Slight line move from an open at 6 and the numbers are:
WL: 54% on NI
SB: 81% on NI
Scoop Intangibles: Further investigation into the game shows that E. Michigan could be considered a bad team at 1-3 but look at that teams they have been beaten by, Toledo Michigan St and Maryland, those teams are not too shabby. That would also help us on the line because the line reflects that these teams are not so far apart but the bad record makes it look like they are. Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS as favorite and Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS off BB ATS losses.
I have more but thought I would start another post so its not all cramped together.
s c OO p
Here it is: http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=338748
Its good reading by the way and I think he is on to something. I just want to break it down and twist a bit more and use line moves, consensus and some key numbers to make my selections and top it off with a little whacky superstitious scOOp Mojo.
The board is 30 something games deep so I would like to make a couple of rules
Rule #1 No taking bad teams:nono:
When you take bad teams you can expect bad things to happen because lets face it they are not that good.
Rule #2Stay off the road kurby This rule is only applicable to college ball because they have so many games. It does not mean that road teams can't win or cover I would just like to think I increase my chances of winning by looking at the teams that are home.
So the first part of my recipe is a mixture of line moves and consensus. I will break it down as I list the games as to how I came to that conclusion. I look at two places for consesnsus, the old standby (WL) and a sportsbook. I like the sportsbook because it actually shows money that is placed on a team I will list them as (SB)
Indiana +8
Line opened at 7.5 and has been pushed up to 8 almost everywhere I looked--it looks as for the line forecast it may move back down to 7.5 so I am grabbing it now.
WL: 70.83%
SB: 86.95% :0corn
Scoop Intangibles: I can't just bet a team on line move and/or consensus because then I would always be on some pretty bad teams for the most part. Indiana is off an upset loss against Ball St and are better than they played while the Spartans are off a big win against the Irish.
Trends
You can always find a trend for the team you like so to me its like a girl in a bikini, they look nice but they don't really show you anything. When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Road team - Vs Big Ten opponent - Coming off 1 ATS win they are 78-126 straight up!:scared
I like Pittsburgh and Virgina but all are on the road so i don't want to break my rule if I don't have to. :mj06:
Here is an interesting case: Florida -22.5 I am not going to play this game but according to where I see my line moves they opened up around 24 and since have dropped down to 22.5
Look at the consensus numbers
WL: 62%
SB: 85%
So everyone is betting on Florida but the line is dropping why is this? I have seen some good cappers comment on this and would love to hear more angles on it. Here is my theory. The public is betting on Florida but the line is dropping. Dropping the line if anything would indicate that the books are not adjusting to get even action because if anything this calls for more Gator cash, so my only assumption is the line was off to begin with. The books opened Florida high assuming the Gator action but even with the Gator action the line is too high and they have under valued Miss St. Knowing they will most likely never get even action they can move it freely, they want to get close to the number over riding even action since it won't happen in this game. So that was my long winded way of saying I would take Miss St, but alas as mentioned, I will pass.
Eastern Michigan +6.5
Slight line move from an open at 6 and the numbers are:
WL: 54% on NI
SB: 81% on NI
Scoop Intangibles: Further investigation into the game shows that E. Michigan could be considered a bad team at 1-3 but look at that teams they have been beaten by, Toledo Michigan St and Maryland, those teams are not too shabby. That would also help us on the line because the line reflects that these teams are not so far apart but the bad record makes it look like they are. Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS as favorite and Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS off BB ATS losses.
I have more but thought I would start another post so its not all cramped together.
s c OO p
